Mnt Goat News Letter - Additional 4/22/19

Dear Loved Ones:

There is lots of chatter about the Dong currency and whether it is planned to revalue. Remember Vietnam was considered on the “underdeveloped” country list of the IMF and so it is one of these countries they want to bring forward because it has great potential, as the video today tells us.

So to answer this question about an revaluation of the Dong, you must understand the process. Again it is all about educating yourself as an investor and to stop listening to all these ignorant so-called intel gurus and all the foolish nonsense they put out on their calls and sites.

The State Bank of Vietnam has been giving us signals for almost a decade now that they plan to get rid of 3 or up to 4 zeros from their Dong currency. So, we know something is up. But what we don’t know is just exactly how they plan to do it. This really matters since it is the difference between getting rich or breaking even on your investment in this currency. Let me explain. This is important so pay close attention.

From experiences in dealing with the CBI, for the Iraqi dinar, we now know that there are two courses of actions that Vietnam can take in this regard:

1st Option: Do a “lop”. This means issuing a set of smaller category notes and then recalling the larger notes, assigning a simple value to them before the “lop” occurred. Then cancel out the older, larger notes, much like Zimbabwe did with the ZIM.

2nd Option: Apply a process to withdrawal the larger notes first. Then do a redenomination but allow some of the larger notes to remain in circulation and to “coincide”: with the smaller category notes. The banks will most likely use these larger notes then as they are not usually highly circulated.

In doing option #2 we may maintain our value of the larger notes we hold plus the revaluation value.

Using examples I find clarifies this best. For examples of each scenario:

500,000 Vietnam Dong note today equals about $35 USD

Option #1: 500,000 Dong changes to a 50 Dong note (they “lop” off 4 zeros)) and the smaller note launched equals $35. You are then told to come to the bank and exchange the 500,000 for a 50 Dong note. You will have a time limit to do it. After that the 500,000 notes are expired and illegal tender and they are worthless. This is what happened in Zimbabwe with the hyperinflated currency. The Bank of Zimbabwe gave $25 USD for each 100 trillion note brought into the bank. When the time limit expired they then became worthless.

Option #2: Bank collects a large % of the 500,000 notes out of circulation. There are many tools they can use to do this. Bank then also launches the smaller note of 50 Dong. The 50 Dong is assigned a value equal $50 USD (1 Dong : 1 USD). The 500,000 remains in very limited circulation and thus will have a new value of $500,000 USD (500,000 Dong x 1 USD). This is where investors can get rich. Then, if a major revaluation happens and Dong goes beyond 1 Dong = 2 USD, the 500,000 Dong becomes worth 1 mill USD.

The most consistent rate of the Dong on any Bank screen has been about 47 cents so this would be my expectation.

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Article to follow:

STATE BANK PLANS TO INCREASE DONG TO DOLLAR VALUE

August, 15, 2011

HA NOI — The State Bank of VietNam plans to increase the value of the Vietnamese Dong against the US dollar over the next four months in a bid to protect the value of the domestic currency, State Bank Governor Nguyen Van Binh told Sai Gon Economic Times this week.

"Since February, the real value of Vietnamese Dong has risen slightly," Binh said.

"If necessary, the central bank will consider further adjustment of the exchange rate," he added. "The primary target of foreign exchange policy is to stabilize the Dong and keep it under control, not to fix it. Confidence in the domestic currency has been fading and we must immediately restore that confidence, which is vital to economic stability."

Binh advised the public that holding onto the Dong was the best policy to keep people from flocking to invest in gold and to reduce dollarization of the economy.

Strategies to protect the Dong would include deposit interest rate reform that created predictable interest rates at levels of around 14 per cent for Dong deposits and 2 per cent for US dollar deposits, he said.

Recent dollar speculation on the foreign exchange black market was a move to take advantage of soaring global gold prices, he added.

"In fact, the demand for dollars to pay for imports is not high, and even petrol importers are not demonstrating a high demand for dollars," Binh said. "The nation's foreign reserves are sufficient to offset any imbalance in the supply of and demand for dollars."

The central bank bought up over US$4 billion in the first seven months of the year. At the Consultative Group Meeting in June, the International Monetary Fund estimated that Viet Nam's foreign reserves totaled $13.5 billion, equivalent to 1.5 months of imports. Yesterday, banks quoted buy/sell rates of VND20,814/VND20,824 per dollar, while the greenback traded for under VND21,000 on the black market.

Last Tuesday, as domestic gold prices soared to an all-time record of VND46 million ($2,203) per tael, the dollar was traded at VND21,300 on the black market and around VND20,810 at banks. — VNS

http://vietnamnews.vn/…/State-Bank-plans-to-increase-Dong-t…

(Mnt Goat – Just so everyone knows this has NOT yet happened and now it is April 2019 already. So this announcement is now about 8 years old. Did somehow the plan change? What is now the current plan? All we can do is look at the news as it progressed over the years. It appears the plan is still to delete the zeros and launch newer smaller category notes. But the BIG question still is when? The latest talk I have is from a 2017 article just less than 2 years ago. Still nothing done on it. So are we watching the process unfold and just thinking we are close or are we watching with impatient anticipation and listening instead to all this crap from these gurus? So today we get some FACTS to go by. This is all we know. Rates on bank screens mean ABSOLUTELY nothing to us. Get it? These rates are constantly changing and will keep appearing and changing. They mean nothing for the timing of this event.)

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ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL BANK OF VIETNAM, VIETNAM WILL ISSUE A NEW VERSION OF THE VIETNAMESE DONG ON JANUARY 1, 2015.

The new version of the Vietnamese Dong will cut off the four VNDs of the old Vietnamese dong, which means that the 1st shield of the new VND is equivalent to what we are using now. 10,000 shields of the Vietnamese Dong. The new version of the Vietnamese Shield includes 1 shield, 2 shields, 5 shields, 10 shields, 20 shields, 50 shields, 100 shields and seven denominations of plastic coins and 0.1 shields, 0.2 shields and 0.5 shields (should be 10Xu.20Xu and 50Xu). coin.

The transition period is from eight months between January 1, 2015 and August 31, 2015. During the transition period, the new version of the Vietnamese Dong and the old version of the Vietnamese Dong can be used at the same time. People can exchange the old version of the Vietnamese Dong with the old version of the Vietnamese Dong. Beginning on September 1, 2015, the old version of the Vietnamese Dong only received payment and officially withdrew from circulation.

The current banknotes used in Vietnam are 200 rupiah, 500 rupiah, 1000 rupiah, 5,000 rupiah banknotes and six plastic banknotes from 10,000 rupiah to 500,000 rupiah. This version of plastic banknotes has been issued from 2003 to now. No changes have been made. Small denominations of banknotes have been in use since 1990.

At present, 10,000 Vietnamese Dong is equivalent to about 0.5 US dollars (about 3 yuan). If the new version of the Vietnamese Dong is put into circulation, it is equivalent to 1 Vietnamese Dong can be exchanged for 0.5 US dollars (this means that 1 Vietnamese dong is more expensive than 1 yuan next year).

I believe foreigners who come to Vietnam will not be in Vietnam anymore. The shield was huge and felt dizzy. The sale of four thousand Vietnamese dongs in a bottle of mineral water in the supermarket will become history. However, people who want to experience “becoming a multi-millionaire in Vietnam” may be disappointed.

The new version of the Vietnamese Shield has a maximum face value of 100 rupiah and is equivalent to approximately $50 at the current exchange rate. An official of the National Bank of Vietnam said that Vietnam’s recent economic development is in good condition. It is believed that there will be no serious inflation in two or three years, so there is no plan to print new banknotes higher than 100 guilders. Photo: Vietnam currently One of the largest denominations of the banknotes used (VND 500,000) will be replaced with a new version of 50 rupees after the currency reform.

The new version of the Vietnamese Dong is still a plastic banknote (this is more advanced than the anti-counterfeiting technology of banknotes, but also more durable than banknotes) but the banknote design has changed a little. The chairman of the banknotes on the front of the banknotes is unchanged, but the back is no longer a tourist attraction in Vietnam. Instead, the portrait of a famous figure in Vietnamese history is adopted.
New version of the Vietnamese Dong banknote pattern:
1 Shield front: Bust of President Ho Chi Minh
The opposite: Vietnamese politician and revolutionary Fan Wentong (1906-2000)
2 Shield Front: Bust of President Ho Chi Minh
The opposite: Vietnamese politician and revolutionary Li Sun (1907-1986)
5 Shield Front: Bust of President Ho Chi Minh
Negative: Former Vietnamese Minister of Defense Wu Yuanjia (1911-2013)
10 Shield Front: Bust of President Ho Chi Minh
The reverse: Vietnamese Confucian Zhu Wen'an (1292-1370)
20 Shield Front: Bust of President Ho Chi Minh
The opposite: the King of Vietnam in the Light (1753 - 1792)
50 Shield Front: Bust of President Ho Chi Minh
The opposite: Vietnamese anti-French hero Zhang Ding (1820 - 1864)
100 Shield Front: Bust of President Ho Chi Minh

(Mnt Goat – Of course this did not happen. Why? This is another case where they need to rethink what they are doing. They do not want a bunch of new billionaires overnight. They must first “withdrawal” a certain % of the current larger notes out of circulation, the same process of the project to delet the zeros that Iraq is now going through. The only way to do that is to go electronic banking, just like Iraq did. This is now in the process as one of these articles today told us. They plan to accomplish the conversion to electronic banking by 2020. So could this be a target? You tell me. Will Vietnam follow the same model as Iraq to do this transition? I certainly hope so but we just don’t know. )

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THE ARGUMENT FOR VIETNAM DONG RE-DENOMINATION

Oct 24, 2017

The Vietnamese Dong is one of the highest-denominated currencies in the world. At the time of writing 1 US dollar was equal to 22,728 Dong. It takes US$44 to become a Dong millionaire.

The only official currency that is higher is Iran’s, where $1 is equal to around 34,000 rial (now about 120,000). The highest unofficial currency is the black-market rate of the Venezuelan bolívar, which passed 29,000 per dollar in September 2017.

Vietnam has the distinction of having the world’s highest-denominated banknote. Nowhere else in the world can you get a note for half a million of something. With so many zeros, such a note is needed.

Once you start getting into big-ticket items, those zeros start stacking up. Lottery prizes and properties are in the billions. And only the bravest publisher dares to quote in Dong when talking about mega-projects like the Ho Chi Minh City Metro, where Line 1 is costing an estimated 2.4 billion dollars; US$2,400,000,000 in Dong looks like 54,548,400,000,000 (that’s 54 trillion). Apart from most people not being able to comprehend such a figure, it would be easy to miss or add a zero, and completely ruin someone’s career or bankrupt a government department.

Countries never start off with high denominations, and Vietnam is no different. The Dong experienced rapid inflation during the 1980s. In 1986 the rate was 1USD/23VND, by 1987 it was 78VND, 630VND in 1988, and 4,500VND in 1989.

Most countries that have had their currency inflate into high denominations eventually re-denominate. Turkey dropped six zeros from the lira in 2005, and Indonesia is now considering a currency adjustment.

The Indonesian rupiah is one of the highest-denominated currencies in the world: US$1 is more than 13,000 rupiah, so to be a millionaire you need about $75. The Indonesian government has proposed a re-denomination that would remove three zeros from the currency, so the current 1,000 rupiah note (about 75 US cents) would be 1 rupiah.

The argument for re-denomination
A contemporary model for Vietnam is Belarus. In 2016 the Belarusian ruble was re-denominated by taking four zeros off the currency. Before re-denomination, US$1 was about 20,000 rubles, making it comparable to the current Dong. What was 10,000 BYR is now 1 BYN, so 1 USD is about 2 BYR.
The new currency is modeled on the euro, with coins similar in style to the euro also introduced. The smaller denominations are easier to remember, and spending low denominations feels more sensible as a consumer.

Removing four zeros would turn a 10,000 Dong note into a 1 Dong note, and US$1 would equal about around 2 Dong.

To give an idea of the change, notes currently in circulation would convert as follows:

500 = 0.05
1,000 = 0.10
2,000 = 0.20
5,000 = 0.50
10,000 = 1
20,000 = 2
50,000 = 5
100,000 = 10
200,000 = 20
500,000 = 50

The new Dong would pave the way for a reintroduction of coins (not counting the rare coins currently in circulation). If Vietnam plans to go cashless by 2020, then maybe coins will be redundant. But at least the option would be there.

A re-denomination would have positive effects such as becoming a currency that is taken seriously. Large projects would be quoted in Dong instead of US dollars, as Thailand quotes in baht for its big projects. And eventually you might be able to exchange your leftover Dong at exchange booths around the world, which most places won’t deal with.

If Vietnam is to maintain its economic success, and aspire to being ASEAN’s “Silicon Valley”, it is time to consider re-denominating the Dong.

(Mnt Goat – So our main concern is this – Will Vietnam decide to do a redenomination or a “lop”. Not once in any of these three articles did they refer to a “lop”. The term redenomination is referred to over and over again. Why is this significant? If they “lop” our currency is worthless. If they just redenominate and also let the remaining of the older notes “coincide” with the new smaller categories they these notes we hold will retain this value and we can exchange them and get rich. So the type of change is now speculative at best but evidence in these three articles says it will be a “redenomination”.

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I hope everyone learned something from this presentation today. I will try to add other articles about the Dong into this post as they come in. Thanks.

Auf Wiedersehen
Much love to ya all,
Mnt Goat