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Economic data from the United States of America looks disastrous, and I can't find a more appropriate word than that.
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Economic data from the United States of America looks disastrous, and I can't find a more appropriate word than that.
According to the latest estimates of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, US GDP will decrease in the second quarter of this year by 41.9%. Not much of the small and medium-sized companies will survive the current quarantine, even with all government assistance programs in mind, and doctors are already talking about second and possibly many waves of the epidemic.
At the same time, more economists, and even officials, admit that the recession will not be V-shaped in English, i.e. a decline and a sharp increase, but rather an L-shape, i.e. fall and a long recession, according to political analyst / Alexander Nazarov.
In April, unemployment more than tripled to 14.7%, and is likely to continue to grow for at least some time.
The US budget deficit has also exploded, and according to expectations, it may approach $ 4 trillion this year, if the country does not have to impose a new quarantine near the end of the year.
All of this is forcing the Federal Reserve to print unbelievable dollars in unbelievable amounts, at astonishing speed. Over the past two years, the volume of circulating dollars nearly doubled, and during the spring months after the March collapse, the monetary base of the Federal Reserve (the volume of circulating dollars) rose by $ 2.8 trillion, to $ 7 trillion. It is the same approach taken by Argentina, Venezuela, Zimbabwe and other countries that have suffered from hyperinflation before. Of course, the dollar’s strength stocks, as a larger global currency, but this may only delay its decline, but it will not prevent it.
This influx of money has temporarily and partially mitigated the social disaster, and it has once again brought the stock market to a climax, but as always, the rich have become richer, against the backdrop of poverty for the poor, the widening gulf between the rich and the poor, and the increasing degree of decay. The stock market no longer reflects reality, and ceases to do its job. Capitalism is dead in the United States of America.
Although the prospects for Donald Trump's re-election against the background of the foregoing certainly deteriorate, the Democratic Party, in turn, does everything necessary to lose it in the presidential election battle, by nominating one of the representatives of the old corrupt elite, who is involved in corruption scandals in Ukraine, Joe Biden, who is unlikely to win against Trump, meaning that the chances of Trump's re-election are still great anyway.
All of this happens in parallel with a significant change in the demographic and ethnic picture among the population of the United States of America, which actually leads to a change in the balance of political forces, so that the Democratic Party can gain complete control of both houses of the American Parliament this fall, to become an issue of Trump's isolation, if His election to a second term, not a matter of time.
American society today suffers from an unprecedented fierce division, which reflects a confrontation between groups that differ among themselves on the basis of race and social background. This year, or perhaps next year, a popularly elected president, who expresses the interests of conservative white Americans with any pretext, is likely to be overthrown. This coincides with the loss of the whites by their absolute majority, at least among the most active group under the age of 50-60 years, that is, the division over the issue of the president’s isolation will touch all the borders that divide American society, especially the racial division. This is how civil and ethnic wars begin, and there is no need to recall that the population of the United States is heavily armed.
All of this will happen against the backdrop of an unprecedented economic crisis, the largest decline in the standard of living of Americans over several generations, meaning that the degree of social discontent will be very high, and many American citizens will be more than willing to protest or participate in confrontations.
There is no guarantee that events will happen this way, but it is one of the realistic scenarios.
What happens if he becomes the next US President Joe Biden?
The American economic crisis will not become less profound, and the protests will not become less widespread, but white conservatives will try to take revenge not at the state level, but at the state, association, or even separatist tendencies. In any case, the United States of America will go through the deepest crisis of the regime this fall, and it can even continue for a longer period of economic stagnation, and no one can say for sure whether it will be able to get out of this crisis in the same way it entered it or not. Ended 25
https://www.almaalomah.com/2020/05/26/476136/
05.27.2020
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