A new policy for North Africa in the era of Trump?

A new policy for North Africa in the era of Trump?

January 27, 2017

There have been a lot of speculation that emerged in the Middle East and North Africa as to what it will look like American foreign policy in the region in light of Donald Trump's management. In this context, perhaps we can conclude some ideas from Trump's comments during the election campaign in 2016, and his character, and the nature of the ministerial personalities he appointed in his team finally. For the area of ​​north-west Africa, is likely to Donald Trump's management continues to engage the same level as that practiced by the previous administration, even though the new administration will focus on the different political priorities.

Many of the characters of the new ministerial appointments to the President, such as the two generals retired Michael Flynn and James Mattis, have said sometimes views reflect a preference for non-interventionist foreign policy, with the exception of cases involving direct US national security interests. This worldview involves the similarities with the views of the Obama administration, which has sought to pull the United States out of the swamps and the Middle East. However, it is likely that this worldview be driven by a strong emphasis on the idea of ​​"security first" that give preliminary to achieve order and stability in the foreign countries to support pluralism and democracy. It may also reflect a preference Trump supposed to strongmen and authoritarian personalities reliable in the region and beyond.

Flynn poses, choosing Trump for the position of national security adviser, a prominent critic and well-documented -You only Islamic extremism, but the same Islamic religion as well. In a speech in August, a retired three-star general said that Islam is not a religion, but it is a political ideology, and that Islam is like a "malignant cancer". And suggests such a letter from the Department of the Interior Trump that the new administration might pigmentation Islamic international organizations brush introduce a lot of previous administrations, and political meanings, can lead to the classification of the Muslim Brotherhood movement as a foreign terrorist organization.

North Africa certainly will not be a regional priority for Trump. The only occasions in which it was the great real estate magnate this region during his campaign are references to Libya, and only with respect to the fight against the "Daesh." However, there is no doubt that the new administration's policies will succeed repercussions on the Arab Maghreb countries.

Differences may be in the policy towards Algeria and Morocco, is very slim. It is likely that Trump -otqom Management reserves the Ptaziz- US relations in Rabat, even with the Islamic party is the one who controls the majority in parliament. This is due to the preferential approach to the country's stability Royal Moroccan regime, a relatively broad consensus he enjoys. The administration may Trump is also strengthening relations with Algeria, which plays a crucial role in maintaining the security and counter-terrorism operations in the North Africa region. It will deliver President Trump's focus on stability has been well received among the leaders in both countries. For Algeria, in particular, it is likely to mean more support for cooperation in the field of counter-terrorism, a matter that formed long been a high priority for the makers of Algerian politics.

While the US will continue to support the stability of Tunisia in the areas of political and economic development, it would be determined through a security lens instead of focusing on local development. And it will pay a foreign policy focused on security Petramb to emphasize the support of the army and security forces, and assist the anti-terrorism efforts in that country. Thus, even with that there is a clear recognition of the importance of economic development to achieve stability in the country, the security assistance is going to be the main road through it will be the follow-up the issue of the economy.

This approach will not carry immediate repercussions on the foreign policy of Tunisia, which relied heavily on the security Western support, especially since the terrorist attacks, which witnessed the country in 2015 and will be a strong relationship with the United States, according to the country's position in the region and the international community in general. However, the Trump policies may have an impact on the Tunisian domestic politics. And perhaps it makes the position of the US administration hostile to Islamists it difficult for them to work with the Tunisian government in which the Islamic Renaissance Party plays a powerful role. But, as is the case with the Moroccan Islamic Party, the Tunisian Renaissance Party has shown being able to work in a pluralistic environment and to respect the rules of the process of democratization. At the same time, it can Renaissance Party is facing a hard time dealing with management openly Bamaadadtha for the Islamists, but he made a number of important concessions in recent years, while party leaders are also aware of the usefulness of a strong relationship with Trump's management.

Likely to be the most important foreign policy Trump in Libya effect it appears. It is likely to support the Trump declared works for men of the powerful and the views of anti-administration of the Islamists to push the United States and perhaps its European allies main Oadha- to support Egypt and the Libyan its agent Gen. Khalifa Haftar, which has waged a Libyan national army, which led a war against Islamists in eastern Libya. Trump has repeatedly expressed his admiration for the Egyptian leader Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and his efforts to combat terrorism against Islamic extremists. He also met with Egyptian Foreign Minister, Sameh Shoukry, recently Vice President, Mike Pence, to discuss the US-Egyptian joint security efforts. And it can drive the strong ties between Trump and Sisi administration to throw its support behind Hfter and fight anti-Islamists, abandoning its support for a process supported by the United Nations, and that national unity government is weak produced in Libya.

It can be for this trend dire consequences on the situation in Libya. And it can result in a shift in the attitude of the international community, led by the United States, to enable and encourage Gen. Hfter to extend his authority throughout the country, seeking to continue its expansion plans and its quest for domination. This could lead to the division of the country into spheres of influence, or more, or the worst happens, where full-scale war breaks out between the Libyan National Army led by Hfter and among his opponents in the west of the country. This will have a serious impact lasting and far-reaching the Libyans, who suffer from pre-economic crisis and ongoing unrest citizens.

Will understand shifted focus Trump in the direction of stability and security, while not a wholesale reordering of US policies in the region, differently from the point of the various stakeholders in each country. Will interact and civil society activists, and human rights defenders and democracy advocates, passively with what they will understand that a shift in the direction of supporting authoritarianism and tyranny, while likely to welcome the middle classes and entrepreneurs supported by the US administration's efforts to stabilize the efforts of governments in their countries.

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