Mountain Goat trying to make sense out of the RV saga

Hello Everyone,

Today I come to you once again to see what sense we can all make out of this RV saga of the Iraqi dinar.

Sooooooooooo much news coming out of Iraq I can hardly believe the progress and all in the right direction.

I am sending out this news today since I believe it is a critical period we are now entering and all of you should be prepared for anything to happen in the very near future.

As I said previously this timeframe from mid September onward is a critical timeframe for Iraq and much is riding on them completing these economic reforms and other reforms on time. What is this timeframe? Do they now have a good progress report? Are they ready to pull the trigger on this currency reform?

I will try to answer many of these questions today.

Today’s News

Today is Wednesday September 16th and still no RV.

National Guard Law – what is the hold up?

I want to begin today with news about the National Guard law and its importance to Iraq and us investors (no National Guard law thus no RV). In a previous news letter I promised you I would investigate this law and get to why it is taking so long. I included a couple article below for your reading. My response to your request go way beyond these articles. So please also read my commentary below.

So here is a quote from the article below - "The National Guard Law is one of the most important paragraphs of the document of political reform”. So do you think this is a “nice to have” law or a law that is needed to maintain security of the provinces (i.e. from ISIS control)? Their words not mine.

Another quote from the article below from Iraq tells us why the law is being stalled– “National Guard in its current form, which would be the beginning of the partitioning of Iraq', excluding 'passing the law in the present time because there are disagreements which had not yet been resolved”.

Think about the last quote from above. If the provinces are dominated by one or another sec and they begin to fight each other, under the new law each providence is to be fully equipped and armed to repel and fight invaders. So why couldn’t they also use this security forces to fight each other in a new civil war? Or even eventually get under the control of ISIS and equip them? Such as a Sheite dominated province fighting a Sunni dominated province. Is this now basically what is going on now?

Do you see the problem?  So they must consider somehow making also the security forces of each providence also under control of the Federal government, much like the Federal government of the USA has done. But Iraqi government has already proved itself incapable of controlling this effort. So who will do it?

They will most likely use the coalition forces and stabilize these provinces one at a time. Then leave a segment of the coalition forces to manage these security forces until the Iranian forces are gone.

In my last news letter from 9/15  (LINK) I talked about “hasty reforms” and “long term” reforms. The National Guard protection is a hasty reform and so it was agreed to the new law would be accomplished in the 90 day period in the June conference. It was one of the seven promised negotiated at that time. It is now mid September and still they do not have a solid law that can be agreed on in parliament.

So you see this is an URGENT and VERY IMPORTANT law to get passed and implemented.

I fully expect them to reconcile any differences in this law in the coming days and we will see this law passed soon. We can already see that the USA is taking more control since the agreed to time period was not accomplished. So Iraq has to either move forward or they will continue to take more control as time moves forward. I do not seem to see any more negotiations for more time to be given to Iraq.

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PARLIAMENTARY DEFENSE AND SECURITY MEMBER CONFIRMS THE EXISTENCE OF US PRESSURES TO PASS THE LAW NATIONAL GUARD

RADIO NAWA
09/14/15   18:57

 A member of the parliamentary committee on defense and security, Iskandar Witwit, Monday, the presence of US pressures to pass the law in its current form for the National Guard.

Witwit said in a statement, told (Information) that 'there are US pressures exercised on the Iraqi Government to pass the Law on National Guard in its current form, which would be the beginning of the partitioning of Iraq', excluding 'passing the law in the present time because there are disagreements [which] had not yet been resolved'.

He explained that ' the question of impossibility of passing national guard due to the fact that the Ministry of Defense and of the Interior legal standing as an impediment to him and therefore has not been approved within the Iraqi Parliament.

 He pointed out that, ' the Union's claim that the National Guard is formed only of the provinces controlled by terrorist bands daash represents injustice right popular crowd forces offering sacrifices and martyrs in the battles against daash in those areas.

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ARAJI CALLED FOR A VOTE ON THE DRAFT OF THE NATIONAL GUARD AS GOVERNMENT LAW

Baghdad scales News - Labeled outgoing Deputy Prime Minister Bahaa al, Tuesday, the National Guard and the law of one of the most important paragraphs of the document of political reform, as called for political blocs to vote on the bill as received from the Council of Ministers.

They said in a statement received / scales News / copy of it, "The National Guard Law is one of the most important paragraphs of the document of political reform, and that the Council of Ministers recommended at its first meeting the need for the completion of the draft of the bill and vote on it and send it to parliament within a period of three months, and already has The Cabinet set up a committee of representatives of the University of the various political blocs under our chairmanship of its members, where they were preparing the draft of the National Guard and law voted by the Council of Ministers and sent it to parliament."

He said al-Araji, that "there are constants in this project agreed by the Committee and approved by the Council of Ministers it is that the popular crowd with all its components represent the nucleus of the National Guard, and that the correlation of the National Guard be General Commander of the Armed Forces, and be under his command and is subject to the decisions and orders, and that the Guard consists of a number distributed according to population ratios for the provinces."

Araji pointed to "the existence of paragraphs clear how they are dealt with on the basis of selection and identification of arming captain and his movements."

Araji He continued that "if there is a disagreement today in the House of Representatives about the fundamentals of this project agreed consideration, particularly the issue of the popular crowd forces the heroine of all components of the nucleus of this project, it means that the dispute mainly revolves around a document of political reform."

He called al-Araji, all the political blocs to "vote on the draft National Guard law as received from the Council of Ministers," asserting that "the popular crowd components when they fought the enemy did not fight in defense of the community or national certain, but in defense of Iraq and all Iraqis,"

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The Progress of the Other “Hasty” (urgent) Reforms

Weeks ago we heard about the passage of the Parties Bill and I talked to you how important this bill was. It was one of the seven promises agree to in the June Paris Conference. Thought you might want to know it was grouped as part of the “hasty reforms”.

Next I am presenting an article today to show you that parliament was to supposed to vote on the draft anti-money laundering and terrorism financing law today (note the third item on the agenda).

It is also another one of the “hasty reforms” I talked about in my last news letter dated 9/15. Please go back and read it. This is another one much needed for the reforms  and again is one of the seven promises made in the June Paris Conference 90 days ago. So they may get this one too. You can see they are scrambling now to complete these seven promises. Why?

By the way we also see a vote on a few other important laws namely 1) the Investment law on the agenda for today. Hurray ! and 2) Second reading of the draft regulation of human organ transplantation (this is directly needed to outlaw practices now held by ISIS to raise funds for their militias)

Cause the know these reforms are tied to reinstating their currency meaning RV time !

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PARLIAMENT AGENDA FOR SEPT. 16 (WEDNESDAY)

The agenda of the session number (23)
September 16, 2015
The third parliamentary session
The second legislative year
The first legislative term

First:      Read verses from the Koran

Second:  The vote on the draft second amendment to the Law of Investment Law No. (13) for the year 2006. (Commission of Economy and Investment, the Finance Committee).  (17 articles).

THIRD:     The vote on the draft anti-money laundering and terrorism financing law. (Finance Committee, the Integrity Commission, for the security and defense committee, the Legal Committee).  (Article 57).

Fourth:    Second reading of the draft regulation of human organ transplantation and prevent trafficking by law. (For the Health and Environment Committee, the Committee of Awqaf and Religious Affairs). (Article 31).

Fifth:      Second reading of the draft law of private security companies. (Commission on Security and Defence).  (Article 42).

Sixth:     Second reading of the draft universities and colleges civil law. (Higher Education Commission, the
Legal Committee).  (Article 56).

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Releasing Other Forms of Revenue for Iraq

We read that Iraq needs to expand into other ventures to support it economy besides the oil revenues? They keep talking about bringing back agriculture, as Iraq has some very expansive fertile lands that were going to waist under Saddam and Maliki also did nothing to revive them. Iraq can literally be the “bread basket” of the middle east.

Now Abadi is taking direct action as he is appealing some of these older laws and wants the government to give assistance to “kick” start this farming industry for Iraq. Agriculture for Iraq can generated also nearly as much revenue as the entire oil production. Can you see now why Iraq is in an economic crisis and what they are doing to get out of it?

So do you now also see the connection as to why Iran wants to keep Iraq under their control? They are exporting food and cars (electricity, gas, etc) to Iraq to support their economy, Now the finance minister is telling the people this will stop since Iraq has the full capability to enter the free markets with the resources the now have. This is the roots of the Iranian terrorism in Iraq and the reason the Qud Revolutionary forces want to remain in Iraq (to control it).

As investors you need to connect what is happening to see the big picture here. If you do you can see how Iraq will literally explode with prosperity once the Iranian influence it gone.

Now can you see why I have been telling you all along Iranian influence must be gone (much as the snow storm must pass and melt) if Iraq (the passenger in the buried car) can go anywhere? My analogy from recent news letter about why the RV is stalled.

Very good articles and tells us so much.

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ABDUAL MAHDI TWITTER MESSAGE/FINANCE MINISTER

(Office / editorial Justice)

In the name of Allah the Merciful
Consumerism without dangerous trend productivity

Iraq is not the only country in which rent-seeking in the budget depends on oil and resources .. Most of the countries surrounding Iraq's oil such as States Gulf and Iran from this angle similar to the situation in Iraq .. difference is that we have a declining trend productivity while they are trying to increase it in their countries.

Shreds Iraq imported from neighboring countries least favorable in terms of natural resource commodities such as milk, water, cheese, dates, fruits and vegetables and widgets home such as furniture, tools kitchen and personal, such as clothes, clothes and shoes, and some industrial equipment, but was able to Iran that there is itself an important market in Iraq, the Iranian brands of cars for export.

Gulf oil states models based on the promotion of national and foreign investments and open all areas of investment and bring the finest labs and most advanced, and establish better farms and pastures, and attract tourists and international forums, and the establishment of global and regional conferences, and the organization of the highest form of workshops and training courses, and sending tens of thousands of students annually to obtain a higher Certificates and techniques, in addition to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in projects and investments out of the country .. It is true that form the Gulf States special for many reasons, including the nature of the foreign population and the nature of employment, but the experience can learn from them a lot, especially in the framework of the modernization departments, rationalization and in accordance with international standards, and reduce reliance on sector General of the investments and the
 private sector .. In the UAE, for example, reducing the number of staff to ten almost, and took the state contract and buy services rather than be based is out, providing a great money, and better services, and corruption less .. The countries of the Gulf oil is one of the more consumer countries as well, but in return are progressing countries in the field of production, investment, and one of the evidence for that, we are now imported from these countries state after state we were exported to.

The model Iran as a country of oil, which constitutes its national product to the total $ 406 billion in 2014, the second in the region after Saudi Arabia, the state control is still great to reach 50-60% of the economy, but the powers is a few given the official initiative to institutions or to form companies associated and that can act flexibly higher than when bureaucracies prevail, absolutely .. as the property laws and the establishment of banks and special interests and investment companies abroad and a tendency to work and production find great encouragement by society and the state alike. So Iran has been able to provide agricultural, industrial, consumer and service widgets, but you export in regional and international markets, despite the drop in oil resources, not only because of the low prices, but also because of the blockade and sanctions.

Iraq has continued to focus on oil production at the expense of the production of real agricultural, industrial and service sectors, etc .. and the continued focus on consumption and more consumption, the current crisis will not be the last crisis, but we will face the most serious crises and more will not be borne by the country.
Adel Abdul Mahdi,

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CABINET AGREES TO WITHDRAW LAWS SENT TO PARLIAMENT BY THE PREVIOUS GOVERNMENT

Alsumaria News / Baghdad - And approved the Cabinet, on Tuesday, to withdraw the draft law sent to the House by the previous government, while decided to support 80% of the total cost of the seeds of wheat and barley crops.

The council said in a statement Alsumaria News received a copy of it, "The Council of Ministers decided at its 36th, which was held today, chaired by Haidar al-Abbadi sent to withdraw the draft laws to the parliament by the previous government, for the purpose of review."

The previous government had sent several bills to parliament in its past and present, and many of them are still stuck in the corridors of the House of Representatives because of political differences about them.

He added, "The Council also decided that the Ministry of Agriculture support the adoption of 80% of the total cost of the seeds of wheat and barley crops."

It is said that most of the wheat and barley growers in Iraq, often demonstrated in protest at the lack of support by the government, calling for their support in order to achieve self-sufficiency of these two important crops in Iraq.

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PRIME MINISTER DR. HAIDER AL-ABADI AGREES THE LAUNCHING OF THE PROCESS OF GRANTING INDUSTRIAL, AGRICULTURAL, AND HOUSING LOANS AS PART OF ECONOMIC REFORM

 Sept 6 2015

Based on the first package of reforms presented by the Prime Minister Dr. Haidar al-Abadi as part of economic reform to stimulate the economy in the country and provide jobs for the unemployed, has acknowledged, the crisis committee at its sixth meeting on 24/8/2015 under the chairmanship of the Prime Minister agreed a mechanism for lending in the INDUSTRIAL, AGRICULTURAL AND HOUSING SECTORS, which will be awarded in accordance with the instructions issued by the Central Bank and other banks.

Prime Minister's Media Office
Sunday 6 September 2015

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Till next time…. Auf Wiedersehen!

Peace and Luv To Ya All,
Mnt Goat