Kaperoni / Tlar & Dinar Alert Member Discussion

Kaperoni / Tlar & Dinar Alert Member Discussion

04/27/2013





Central Bank: currency structure and exclusion delete zeros in current time

2013-04-26 Follow the new morning

Counting the Central Bank of Iraq that there is no intention at this time to restructure and delete the three zeros, denying reports in this regard. The Bank said in a statement that "some media deliberated statements about the intention of the Iraqi Central Bank restructuring and deleting three zeros from them», said: «while confirming the Bank that the only reference to declare things like this indicates no intention to restructure the currency and delete the zeros in the moment».

Local media were covered, a few days ago, news that the Iraqi currency structure and procedures deleting zeros which would soon begin, saying that this will lead to the development of international economic and monetary transactions in a new development in the Iraqi currency.


Kaperoni: This article implies that the local media was told a few days ago that the currency was changing and it would soon begin. It also sounds like this article is just stating some media got it wrong and said the deletion of zeros and restructoring would begin. And though that is what the CBI can talk about, they didn't say that. If true, that means that the currency will begin to rise very soon.

Punisher: The best news I have seen all day. Let us hope this is true.

Tlar: I agree with you Kap wholeheartedly but would like to see exactly what you see having come to your conclusion. Can you share it?
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Punisher: Tlar, what do you see? Kap makes a great case with evidence to back up a float and Tlar makes a great case with evidence to back up a small rv (.85 to $1)...

ZenMav: Gotta be both Punisher. Far too many buyers at 1166 when it goes international, but pop that baby at 85 cents (or some other value close to a buck), and it's a different game entirely. Check out Google stock, trading at 800 or so right now, but it debuted at 80 about 10 yrs ago.

There are far fewer buyers of Google at 800 than 80. Same analogy goes for the IQD. To release the IQD at 1166 to trade flushes so many dinar back into circulation and ruins any and all of the work the CBI has done to purchase the IQD back at the artificially low program rate and reduce the money supply. It literally ruins the discount. The IQD has to stage and float, about the only way it works to realize the dramatic change in value we are looking for.

Punisher: ZenMav, so what you are saying is if they floated the IQD starting at 1166 then everyone and their grandmother (including us investors) will want to rush out and buy more since we can afford it creating a frenzy....and that wouldn't be smart? But if they raise the value say at .90 and then float it from there people can still rush out but not everyone can jump on the dinar so easy...did I get that right?

2COLLECTG: i see they been back and forth all day yea naw yea naw we gonna do it! syke not gonna do this thing from jmho is getting ready to go down the banks are pushing imf are pushing world bank guy`s like the great pizza man say`s let it come too us!

money that you fold is for things bought & sold money that you lay flat and stack THE BANK will buy that back!

BlueyesinLevis: Exactly as I see it, as well. Let's take your analogy one step further the other direction. Look at Facebook. They came out of the block at the absolute highest amount they figured it would ever be worth... and after the initial excitement and pre-orders in the first few hours... the true value became quickly evident and it had nowhere to go but down... and demand went with it.

That is what is so ludicris about the gurus who claim it should come out at 5, 6 or 7 bucks. Even the commonly acepted figure of it's (evenutal) worth at 3.41.. would be a mistake... unless the claims that the IMF will do it on a managed float and only allow a 2% increase or decrease every 6 months are reality.

I dont know who is right... but Kap's free float theory make sense to me with a staging rate around a buck... however whenever it is mentioned outside these hallowed halls.. the IMF rule on the managed float gets brought up as if it is gospel.

I am just a dumb redneck.. so I can't really say what it will be. Just speculating.. and I agree with what you are saying.

Like Kap says.. it needs to come out relativly low.. so that it will attract demand from International Central Banks... to purchase it as a reserve currency.. thus... Iraq only pays for the in-country portion of the lifting of the foreign exchange rate of the NID.

Punisher: The staging rate of about a dollar is what I hope to see and then they can float it so that one can pick when to cash out...until it eventually reaches $3.

ZenMav: :Rew, there's another oil rich country with an economy that is mostly oil exports and a population of 28 million that has been given very little consideration/ examination as an analog to Iraq, lost in all of the $3.41-pumper-hype-RV scenarios. Saudi Arabia's Riyal is worth about 26-28 cents.

Punisher: Didn't know Saudi Arabia was worth that.

Tlar: Deny, Deny, Deny. "Were not going to do it now." "We are not going to do it this moment." Of course not. The rates are not yet back together yet. The problem is Iran is now dumping enough forged currency on Iraq that it continues to negatively affect the street rate.

Iran cannot go to the auction to dump, or to the banks because their currency would not pass muster. It would only get confiscated. That leaves one option to Iran, to sell their phony currency in the black market/street.

To get a US dollar, Iran is willing to give much more than the program rate which is why the rates are still apart. I believe that the bank will come to the logical conclusion, if they haven't already, they must go and go soon.

I think it will be $1.00 or .86 right out of the shoot allowing them to release the smalls denominations immediately following the change in rate. Iran will be unable to counterfeit the new currency and will attempt to dump quickly all the bogus currency they have into the Iraqi street.

The bank will have to take measures to see that this bogus currency does not find its way into the bank. A couple of years ago Shabibi had picked 10 banks to do the swap to the new currency. He next purchased (10) de la Rue machines and installed them in those banks at a cost of 15 million dollars..

I would be very, very surprised if the CBI does not do something this year. They have to stop Iran before Iran breaks the economic system in Iraq. If the bank is a go this year, all these recent denials are just a diversion. They also serve the purpose of sidelining Maliki's attacks.

Since the bank has been stating for the last two days that they are not going to do it now, the attacks from Maliki's goons have toned way down. If the CBI's recent denials about not doing it this year turn out to be real, then a year from now Iraq will be swimming in phony Iranian made dinar, and the dinar value will most likely have suffered much worse than where it is today..

Already citizens are reluctant to take the dinar as payment for fear that it is counterfeit. That should hyper alert the bank that they must do something soon or they endanger their whole economic system. For the bank to do nothing until next year seems to me to be economic suicide.

I'm very hopeful that the bank knows all of this and will pop soon. I'm not so sure anymore that they can wait even until July. Iran is in crunch time and is dumping as much as they can because they know this gravy train could change at anytime.

FULL ARTICLE & LINK

Central Bank: currency structure and exclusion delete zeros in current time

2013-04-26 Follow the new morning

Counting the Central Bank of Iraq that there is no intention at this time to restructure and delete the three zeros, denying reports in this regard. The Bank said in a statement that "some media deliberated statements about the intention of the Iraqi Central Bank restructuring and deleting three zeros from them», said: «while confirming the Bank that the only reference to declare things like this indicates no intention to restructure the currency and delete the zeros in the moment».

Local media were covered, a few days ago, news that the Iraqi currency structure and procedures deleting zeros which would soon begin, saying that this will lead to the development of international economic and monetary transactions in a new development in the Iraqi currency.

On the other hand, the dollar in the domestic market has risen sharply over the past few days, if the price of the dollar around 1280 was IQD last month at around 1,200. Foreign currency dealers said in Baghdad: the US dollar, rose markedly since early this month, but this height peaked on Wednesday, after a record per dollar 1,285 dinars.

At the time of Central Bank seeks through the currency auction for years, to keep the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar in the currency market, the exchange rate is volatile clear since late last year.

Economist Majid mock said: «regional situations in the region, particularly the situation surrounding Iraq's neighbors, especially Iran and Syria, one of the main reasons behind the dollar recently on Iraqi markets», «Central Bank sales in the form of cash have risen recently over remittances due to the dealings the two cash in trade because of the economic embargo imposed on them.

Mock said that the Bank's sale of $ 100 million a day it would mean the sale of $ 500 million a week and thus there is a $ 26 billion goes to outside Iraq for import ", noting that" most of these sums are smuggled out of Iraq without benefit.

Economist alecs Antoine demand on the dollar than before because the mafias are collecting dollars and smuggled out of Iraq on the pretext of import operations outside of Iraq, stating that "the quantities coming out of Iraq are not commensurate with the amount of goods entering the mechanism.

Antoine adds that "Iraq has five offices for laundering these offices, however, are still below the level in the detection of smuggling hard currency outside Iraq, stressing" all parties must cooperate among themselves whether the Central Bank or border control and customs taxes and fight corruption and increase oversight and internal stakeholders.

The Central Bank says: he seeks through the currency auction for years, to keep the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar in the currency market, but the exchange rate is volatile clear since late last year

The Bank does not provide any explanations for the discrepancy between the price and the price in the local market, although responsible for monetary policy in the country. Including exchange rate policies and the daily meetings of the buying and selling of foreign currency except official holidays the Bank depends on these auctions. LINK