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"Weighed Against" - Tues. PM KTFA Thoughts/News 10/30/18

KTFA

Walkingstick » October 30th, 2018

ftti ... Yep, keeping in mind... Iraq's (NEER) & (REER) of past... (Both, having appreciated greatly over of the course of 4 years) was weighed, against.... the USD, only... Today, effectively weighed... against, a basket. Regards....

Sunkissed » October 30th, 2018

We know that the REER was established on Thursday (Oct 25, 2018).

And from what I glean from this (Walking Stick) post, the Nominal Effective Exchange Rate & the Real Effective Exchange Rate have "appreciated greatly over the course of 4 years" due to various things we know of from many articles: interest, frozen funds, clawed back stolen dinar, etc., all back to the CBI reserves.

Therefore, had they Reinstated the Dinar before now, it would have only been weighed against the "USD, only" at a rate of 1:1 to the USD.

BUT.... NOW.... TODAY (I believe as of last Thursday!!) "weighed against, a basket."

Therefore now from MM's post: Link

The "floor" rate: $4.25 - $4.35
The "ceiling" rate: $5.85

The fact that the POTENTIAL rate is much higher than previously could have been when weighed only against the USD, immediately brought my memory back to the Conference Call with Ghost when he said "The ceiling will become the floor."

Do you all remember that??? We didn't know at the time what he was referring to. I think we do now!

Calculations given to us by Walkingstick and calculated with today's rate by MM:

"...what we have learned from WS the rate is going to be effectively in a range that is based on a mixture of the AMF / AAD and the IMF / SDR 3x. The latest loan issued by the AMF in summer of 2017 was around $4.25 - $4.35 / 1 AAD and the AMF / SDR $1.42 3x = $4.26 on the daily rate they use, if I am accurate. If they use the monthly rate of the SDR of approx. $1.95 3x = $5.85.. All those numbers or ranges are easily supported by Iraq's wealth. ioo.. ~ MM"

~ Sunkissed

MilitiaMan » October 30th, 2018

Sunkissed, I highlighted and made large for a reason the above "Today, effectively weighed.. ". As we may have presumed that last Thursday was the day REER got initiated per WS post from a CBI article the day before (See FA #108 page 6), as that was the day WS talked about "tried, tested and successful = REER", that being talked about on Thursday. Well the above where WS posts "Today, effectively weighted.." was yesterday. Monday!

I may be wrong here, but, there is a difference for those days.. We were told they tested to the USD for 4 years only then on that Thursday, now we see they weighed REER against a basket of currencies on Monday (AMF was in Iraq for 10 days ending on that same Thursday).. Therefore, imo WS with out saying it directly to anyone specifically, he points out the difference to us regardless, imo.

That my friend is also very telling!! Frank has mentioned he thought "about" a week in time frame to see the effect of that action. We shall see if that action comes out in the short term or not. It is as I have aforementioned in recent past that REER is a time sensitive issue, therefore, again it is a serious time frame we are in. imo ~ MM

Walkingstick » October 30th, 2018

"Frank... per con: SNIPPET:
"Iraqi Central Bank's march over the last four years proved"
Tried, tested.. successful = (reer)" ~ WS