Guru Updates (7/14/2014)

Just thought it would be fun to let everybody who is still paying attention to dinar events know what the gurus are saying, now that Iraq is in such dire straits.






7-7-2014   Kaperoni    Article: "Political blocs warns of blocking the formation of the government for "a long time" because of the insistence of Maliki confirms: Star is not the most likely candidate" Maliki has set the stage...stating he will not give up the right to a 3rd term which is really saying.."I am not leaving no matter what" unless toes up. The reality is everyone...nobody wants to admit it, but this is a real bad situation...not only for Iraq but for us as investors...when these types of events happen (terrorists taking over a province) or Maliki (refusing to leave)...the end result is not only an escalation in violence but the destruction of years of hard work rebuilding the infrastructure.  The [longer] this continues the more damage is done. And this is a setback. In reality, If Maliki squats, and the violence escalates we could be looking at a year or more to restore what had been accomplished prior. I wish there was better news..but this is not good news and we all need to be aware and should watch it closely as it is significant to our investment. I am keeping my fingers crossed and hoping for the best!

Some of my readers get mad at me because I don't come down on Kap any more than I do, but this is a good example of why.  Although we obviously disagree on the potential of the dinar as an investment, I will at least give honour where honour is due.  Kap is one of the very few gurus willing to point out the risk and obvious negative circumstances investors face.





7-6-2014  Poppy3    IRAQ MEETING ON TUESDAY AROUND NOON WITH A LARGE AGENDA AND I PROMISE YOU THEY WILL NOT GET IT ALL DONE. WE WILL BE VERY FORTUNATE IF WE SEE THE PRESIDENTS VOTED ON MUCH LESS REMOVING MALIKI . I HOPE I AM VERY WRONG AND THEY ACCOMPLISH ALL THAT IS NEEDED INCLUDING GETTING RID OF HIM. IF THEY FINISH ALL THEN THE MOVEMENT WILL BE SWIFT IS WHAT I AM STILL BEING TOLD.

This guy hasn't been right about anything in the three yeas I've been blogging, but he might get this one right.  Nothing in Iraq is ever done in a timely fashion.  As for the swift movement, maybe if we send them a shipment of prune juice.





7-6-2014  wmawhite   It appears to only support Maliki has is within the SoL...the rest of the NA don't want him, the Sunnis don't want him, the Kurds don't want him...and he bought a $3 million home for his family within the last 3 weeks in Qatar...maybe he knows.

Funny how nobody wants Maliki but they can't seem to get rid of the guy.  People have been saying that Maliki is history for as long as I've known about Maliki, and he's still there.  Don't hold your breath waiting for his exit.





7-6-2014 Tlar    There is a lot of confusion going on now with some articles offering hope then other articles saying there are disputes within the coalition and even more saying they won't be ready. I feel very comfortable that this is the finest snow job I have ever been witness to. The intention of which is to keep the SOL and Maliki in the dark. IMO they are ready this time just as Allawi stated a couple of days ago. With all the confusion being spread, the SOL has no clue how to react or plan. That's exactly the way it is supposed to be IMO. Keep them guessing and then lower the "boom". Walk in and vote them into oblivion and quickly leave. We will just have to see on Tuesday whether what have been witnessing in the press is just smoke.

As I pointed out recently tlar is way out there in lala land.  As we now see the press is far more reliable than gurus like tlar.





7-6-2014 Hub   ... have three close very close people that know more than we do...real...time business currency business info and they were in on the kuwait rv and they know the talk and talk the walk...the real information is the dinar has been revalued.   two major contacts, yes. ...some of my people are all oil people in iraq, iran, kuwait, saudi, and the other mid east oil people...these people are a special breed...my contact which is a currency broker, made a killing on the revaluation of the kuwait dinar  ..... the dinar has had a value for 200 years and will retain the value...in 1955 it was $2.55 and in 1990 it was $3.22. ...the main outlook is the dinar will revalue...it has too to maintain the history...and so we are waiting for it to happen. i dont know what it will revalue at...

A common flaw in the thinking of dinar investors and gurus is that a currency has a natural value that it gravitates toward, kind of like with gasses such as helium rising above oxygen, or chlorine settling below oxygen.  But currencies don't have a "natural" value.  They have a value that is determined by the unique history, money supply, and GDP of the country that they represent.  China has a huge economy but their currency is valued at around 16 cents, yet smaller countries like Bahrain with a GDP of only about $25 billion have a currency worth about $2.50.  Nothing causes depreciation of a currency more than war, and countries like Germany, Japan, Vietnam, and Iraq have currencies that depreciated in value because of war.  Germany redenominated to bring their value back, but Japan and Vietnam left their currency valued very low and just went on with life.  If Iraq decided to bing their currency's value back to where it was over 30 years ago then they will do it just like Germany did, with a redenomination or "lop".  



 

7-6-2014   Chattel  -  The Kurds had announced in advance their intention to leave after being sworn in if there was no declaration of the PM nominee in advance...there is a procedural "game" being played out between the SLC and the National Alliance and the anti - Maliki forces are watching it closely. BUT, who can know what is "in play", Kurdish independence, oil sales, or does any of this have any effect upon our liquidity event? there is no "RV manual", this is all " unploughed " ground.

Unploughed [sic] ground?  I thought Kuwait RV'd?  I thought Germany RV'd?  I thought Iraq was going to create millionaires just like those two did?  LOL!!!  Chattels is right, an RV that creates millionaires has never occurred, and for one simple reason - it doesn't make sense.  Why would a country want their currency to go up substantially in value thereby making it more expensive for other countries to do business with them?




But all of this was topped off by Breitling's rambling geopolitical history lecture where he claimed that Hitler devalued the deutsche mark, that Donald Rumsfeld said that the US sold Saddam WMD, that the US put Saddam in charge as a buffer against Iran, and that Tulsa brings in more money than LA.  A few minutes with Google will reveal that Hitler died three years before the introduction if the deutsche mark, that Donald Rumsfeld never said anything remotely like "we sold WMD to Iraq", that Saddam came up through the ranks of the Baath party in Iraq and was in fact the leader of Iraq before our ally the Shah was deposed in Iran, and that LA's GDP is roughly $750 billion while Tulsa's is roughly $50 billion.  (LA's population is roughly 10 times that of Tulsa, so even going by GDP per capita the numbers don't favour Tulsa.)  

What better reminder does one need of the folly of following gurus?