Trump Management Middle East has turned upside down

Trump Management Middle East has turned upside down

November 24, 2016

Preparing the Middle East at present to deal with the new US president kissed, and that seems to be determined to rearrange the balance of power there dramatically, thus paving a new case of uncertainty, and perhaps to a new wave of unrest in one part of the world where multiple wars raging from the ground up.

Many of the statements made by President-elect Donald Trump in the context of the electoral campaign of vagueness and contradiction extreme, to the point that governments and analysts are trying to figure out which of them was actually frequented, and how they will be able to implement the whole.

According to the sturdiest of his remarks, according to conversations he had advisers with analysts and officials, Trump will seek to significant readjustment of the system that currently exists in the Middle East -lsaleh Russia, away from Shiite Iran, and with the benefit of the Turkey and the Gulf Arab Sunni.

Some of its stated goals often do not differ from the Obama administration, which has set aside or did not find its way to meet its policies, because they proved to be very difficult for the achievement-such as payment failed towards cooperation with Russia against the terrorist groups in Syria, and expect to do the Arab countries more and pay more in exchange for regional security.

Other objectives indicate a major difference, especially threats fudging of the Iranian nuclear deal which formed the main achievement of President Obama's foreign policy, and suggestions on cutting Trump's support for the Syrian rebels and the alignment of the United States with the government of President Bashar al-Assad.

In the meantime, the overwhelming attack by a fleet of Russian warships gathered again in the eastern Mediterranean on the territory controlled by the rebels, a sample of what could happen in the future days. The attacks came hours after speaking Trump on the phone for the first time with President Vladimir Putin about finding ways in which they can improve US-Russian relations, including a settlement of the crisis in Syria, which is likely to release the hand of Russia to crush against the rule of President Assad revolution.

But there are other positions irreconcilable, such as Trump promises to do more to fight "Daesh", while also undertakes to further decipher the United States link adventures abroad. Is Trump will be isolationist, following the instincts of Obama haters to take the risk? Or it would be interventionist, closer to George W. Bush, who took the global war on terror, the United States into the midst of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq template?

He predicts Theodore Karasik, senior adviser in the analyzes of the Gulf States, based in Washington have focused enterprise, which had been discussing the future of the region with advisers Trump in recent months, that Trump would be a bit of both, but it will be significantly different, too. He said that the main priority Trump lies in the fight, "Daesh" while assigning the rest of the security of the region to Russia and Arab countries.

He also said: "There is potential for chaos factor ... but the idea now is focused on loosening shook the order of nation-states in the region in order to move forward and let her guard itself."

Karasik said that words such as "mild" and "democratic" does not find a place in the Dictionary of the Middle East in Trump's management. He said: "We are now engaged in realpolitik."

This is welcome news to the powerful men in the area, who were mostly fragile relations with the Obama administration. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has hailed the election of Trump and they saw an opportunity to reshape their tense relations with Washington.

As for Saudi Arabia and the Sunni Arab states in the Gulf, we feel the most comfortable for the return of a Republican president to the White House, although their formulation initial reservations because of the views of Trump for Muslims. Analysts say the region that these countries hoped to be Trump's deal with Iran more than was his predecessor, Obama deal with it.

The former diplomat said Saudi analyst Abdullah al-Shammari: "We certainly do not expect Mr. Trump to be worse than it was Mr. Obama." He added that most of the members of the royal family "are delighted with the result. We are closer to the Republicans psychologically. "

For its part, the Assad government feel very elated to elect Trump because of his pledges to join Russia in a stand against the "Daesh" and the rebels Syrians, according to Bassam Abdallah, a professor said in Damascus University, who supports President Assad. The prevailing expectation in Damascus now is that Washington will stop providing support for the Syrian rebels, and then will join Russia in the bombardment and possibly restore the resumption of diplomatic relations with Assad, as Mr. Abdullah said. He added: "Absolutely this is good for Syria ... It means that the United States will not be looking forward to the change of regime."

Bassam Barabandi who works with the Syrian opposition in Washington, and had met with Trump's advisers, that even the rebels Syrians, who are they losers senior, Salwa find in the vast and broad range of views expressed by his advisers. The opportunity to cooperate with Russia for many Republicans in the United States as something forbidden, as was expressed that the words of Sen. John McCain (Arizona) on election Trump, who described any attempt to rearrange the relations as "an unacceptable price of a great nation."

He Barabandi A lot will depend on the Sakhtarhm Trump to take up positions in his administration. Some members of his inner circle were Sqrien about Russia and others were Sqrien regarding Syria, including Vice President-elect, Mike Pence, who leads the team Trump Transition, which proposed the establishment of no-fly zone in Syria; and Stephen Hadley, who defended the use of cruise missiles to curb al-Assad.

Although Trump ruled out Syrian rebels, calling them "the worst of people," the Syrian opposition hopes to bring him to the point of view of the current administration, based on the Syrian opposition to serve in the face of the influence and the influence of extremists in areas that Assad is no longer controlled.

Barabandi said: "The war on terror is very important for Trump, I do not feel that his foreign policy would be very different from Obama's foreign policy. It is not interventionist. It is very similar to Obama, but in a different way. The Obama his own philosophy. Businessman and Trump is looking forward to a place that can provide the money with him. "

Will constitute the implementation of all of these goals and satisfy all these expectations without a fight new conflicts and possibly implicate the United States even more deeply in the competition area, it will be a challenge.

Iran is Assad's closest allies in the war against Syrian rebels, which give him the ground forces of the revolution that address anti-regime Gel. Army and Assad is on and there is no depletion of Russia's ground forces on the ground. Therefore, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, the Shiite militia backed by Iran, and Hezbollah, which are Cetkonan Tantqlan to any areas of the system re-invasion, also said Andrew Tabler of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Therefore Tabler wondered, how to be to manage Trump that want to rein in Iran's influence also ally itself more closely with Russia and the lion without enable Iran?

Tabler said: "I do not see how you can do it. It is within the range of contradictions in his statements, which I do not see it being resolved. "

For his part, he issued an Iraqi Shiite cleric anti-American, Muqtada al-Sadr, and his militia, which fought once US forces, a veiled warning to that effect last week. And he declared "eternal hostility" toward Trump, a debtor position of the US president-elect of the Muslims and urged him to comply with international obligations of the United States.

He said in a statement: "He does not know that his extremism will lead to overdo it, too." If the United States changes its policies "will not be silent and will Nquaomha as we did before."

Similarly, the Turkish expectations that Trump's management will reflect the point of the adoption of the Obama administration on the Syrian Kurds to fight "Daesh" may lead to the lifting of some of the barriers in the war, but it also will lead to the involvement of new hampered because Syrian Kurds control most of the front line against the militants in Syria .

Imad says the safety of the Lebanese American University in Beirut Reconciling all these conflicting goals is not impossible. He said that Trump may bring reconciliation between Turkey and the Kurds. If Trump's management stood against Iran's military expansion in Syria, Yemen and Bahrain, they can persuade Saudi Arabia to waive Assad in Syria and exit broader regional interests.

But Jamal Khashoggi, the Saudi journalist and commentator, described it as a hit of wishes, which conflicts with the design of Trump appearing on the alliance more closely with Russia.

He said: "When I offer him his advisers map, you will realize that the support of Putin means supporting Iranian agenda? That's what interested him Arabia, to stop Iranian hegemony. "

Perhaps the biggest losers in all this are the ordinary people who are still looking forward to greater democracy in the region.

Said Ahmed Salih, an engineer who has previously taken part in an uprising in 2011 in Egypt: "For us, the Trump elect like winter winds." He asked: "How can you hope for freedom when it is not the most powerful man in the world believe in our democracy?

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