Trump presidency: Would it be a short cut towards independence «Kurdistan» or a wrong turn?

Trump presidency: Would it be a short cut towards independence «Kurdistan» or a wrong turn?

November 20, 2016

People who live inside the Iraqi border today's proven ability to surprise the outside world has, by appealing over their heads expectations and sometimes disappoint phase. Is seen by ordinary observers to the challenges and the disaster that befell Iraq and «Kurdistan Region», and often are unable to believe that the country, the region and its inhabitants were going to stand. But, as happened during the organization «Islamic State attack in Iraq and the Levant» ( «Daesh») in 2014, Iraqis and Kurds surprised many observers Pettmknhm of recovery after they were on the brink of defeat. During the past few weeks, they succeeded in breaking down the doors of the defenses of the organization «Daesh» in Mosul.

However, the people of Iraq and «Kurdistan region» has also demonstrated the ability of sad to retreat to the back after they were around the corner from the victory. In Iraq, it evaporated promising steps towards stability after 2010 due to a government that is not indifferent and sectarian largely in Baghdad. The Kurds and they exceeded their abilities in 2014 when they lost almost all their income because they are very fast and have sought unilateral extremely toward achieving economic independence with the support of Turkey.

And now there is a promising momentum between Baghdad and the Kurds on the transfer of sovereign powers to the Kurdistan. And currently poses the receipt Trump for the presidency in the United States the following question: Is Semel Iraqi Kurds again towards a "shortcut" road to independence by seeking to obtain the support of the new US administration for a Kurdish state outside the scope of the negotiations with Baghdad?

Negotiations between the Shiites and Kurds over the Confederate

It is common that the Iraqi leaders, and even Saddam Hussein, to discuss the Kurdish autonomy and even encourage Kurds to declare their own state. During the past few years, encouraged by former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki Kurdistan without indifference to become independent: as it is sometimes made by current Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi similar remarks.

But as long as there was a purpose: when the Iraqi Kurds is talking about holding a referendum on independence, Baghdad argues that the time is not appropriate. Or is the node] Arab leaders in the capital, who are using Iran as an excuse, they say, in fact, "do not mind Kurdish independence, but our brothers in the East are the problem."

Conversations that I had with prominent Shiites, Kurds and Sunnis Iraqi leaders to believe me have prompted that this pattern is about to change and that perhaps something new is already happening: a real conversation between the Kurds and Baghdad about the separation of sovereign powers, in order to establish equality based on common mode. One was The reasons for this shock and exhaustion full resulting from the war against al «Daesh», a war characterized by brutality unmatched, even on the basis of the dark periods of the history of modern Iraq standards, and there is a desire esoteric for peace between the factions that fought the organization «Daesh» .

Here and ask the following question: Who wants to fight another war at the present time? Shiite militias and the Turks might want it, but not the Kurds or the political and religious ruling class in the main Shiite Iraq.

There is also a political aspect, which is that the leadership of Barzani and Prime Minister al-Abadi require to each other, and have a common adversary is trying to differentiate between them, namely: the rebel alliance led by al-Maliki and supported by Iran.

The international actors like the United States and European allies, and "International Monetary Fund" and the "World Bank", Vioukon to see Baghdad and Erbil are cooperating in the campaign against al «Daesh» and on the level of economic reforms. Baghdad has prepared for change. No longer [Iraq's population of non-Kurds] are afraid of divorce and became want to own their freedom to start a new life.

Fellow Shi'ite leaders say in private councils that an Iraq without Kurdistan would be better off financially, will no longer need to be the law of regional formation. They want an Iraq that Arab centrally controlled by the Shiites, have traditionally cohesive and more. Based on this background, Prime Minister «Kurdistan Regional Government» Nechirvan Barzani was able to start a frank discussion unprecedented in the autumn of this year, not with al-Abadi, but with all the Shiite leaders on the need to separate the sovereign authorities formally between equals two partners departments Baghdad and Erbil.

Benefits chapter through negotiation

In my opinion, there are a lot of reasons why negotiations on Chapter sovereign best for «Kurdistan Region» of the unilateral declaration of independence or adopting other means to create a Kurdish state. Reaching a negotiated settlement with Baghdad could prevent the re-militarization of the differences between Baghdad and «Kurdistan Regional Government.» The negotiations in itself a measure to build confidence and security. If the meetings were held enough pace, the easier it is for both sides to avoid misunderstandings and communicate on the red lines. And diminishing the possibility that one of the sides of distorting the other's reputation.

Mutual respect and equal sovereignty has become an attractive idea for both sides because it will prevent both Baghdad and Erbil from interfering in the internal and external affairs of each. Some of the "rules of the game" basic red lines may provide a big help on Baghdad to dispel fears of intervention of Turkey or any Sunni state, and fears of Shiite militias Kurdistan activities (which then will give Ankara a pretext to act more bizarre manner in the region).

The international face of the common one of the options, as the Kurds and Iraqi leaders consider [follow] coordinated foreign policy. «Kurdistan Regional Government» I sensed how they can under the Confederate succeed while accompanied by President of the Presidium «Kurdistan region» Fuad Hussein, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi in all of his meetings in the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

Perhaps most importantly, that Iraq and «Kurdistan region» are plenty of reasons to cooperate in what was described as a "joint economic their field." It is not surprising that Iraq and Kurdistan gathered a lot of common economic interests. They used the same currency, and I built the infrastructure of the oil and gas-related, and linking jointly many of the regional and local markets. And feel "of the International Monetary Fund" and the "World Bank" and other donors and lenders much more about working with the Kurdistan serenely if acquired sovereign powers over the agreed negotiating process.

Finally, if supported Baghdad equal joint or independent state for «Kurdistan region» sovereignty, it reduces the chances of the feet of any regional state - for the transfer of Iran or even Turkey - on the objection. Thus, the exclusion of such a spoiler factor as the international community is fully Christdhan «Kurdistan» Almtemta full sovereignty.

"Shortcut way" strategy risk

Today, it appears clear that «the Kurdistan region» overly dependent on Turkey. Although Ankara is considered an indispensable partner, startled Iraqi Kurds in their own councils of the work carried out by Erdogan's government - the war against «PKK», closing line export Kurdish oil pipeline for 23 days in February 2016, the actions of emerging Turkish troops control within the «Kurdistan region», the escalation of the Turkish air strikes inside the «Kurdistan», and the arrest of MPs and leaders belonging to the «Democratic Party peoples» [( «peoples democratic party»)] in Turkey.

The lesson here is that alliances may be necessary, but to harness all the efforts and capacities for the move is unwise. This also applies to a new US administration.

Perhaps the coming years will look like as a wonderful opportunity for the Kurds to Isthozu on Washington's attention and gain support for their independence. However, the new US administration lacks experience as likely, an internally fragmented and volatile. This may lead to a repetition of the previous tragic chapters of history, where the Kurdish pay excessive reliance on external partners - including Henry Kissinger in 1975 - to the disaster.

This is the internal negotiations between Baghdad and Kurdistan, the Kurdish sovereignty on the best estimates of the degree is not unstable strategies based on foreign powers. The current discussions a good start. The «Kurdistan region» is not on the verge of achieving success by any means, but it is on the right track and is approaching his goal.

The balance between Baghdad and Washington, Turkey and Iran

Kurdistan must not ignore the Trump team: On the contrary. Registered «Kurdistan region» that supports his position in the negotiations by showing that there are now unprecedented support for Kurdish independence in both the White House and the Senate and Congress Americans.

The trick for the Kurdish leadership in the development of this influence and support the American option, with a focus at the same time on the real prize - a process with Baghdad to facilitate the transmission of sovereign powers to the internationally recognized «Kurdistan» relationship. And the region prompted the new Trump's management to retain the engagement, and enhance the success of the early talks, and to encourage cooperation on Mosul and later on the Supreme Committee for the Kurdish sovereignty.

For its part, it should refrain Washington to inflict any damage, and allow the Iraqis led the discussions, and be the best friend and mediator honest. If intruders tried to disturb the discussions between Baghdad and «Kurdistan Regional Government», Washington should provide support for the negotiations and to reassure both sides.

As the United States should continue to put pressure on the Kurdistan to reach an agreement on the presidency and the House of Representatives and the Council of Ministers. Without a domestic consensus Kurdistan will weaken their bargaining power with Baghdad.

For the Kurds, the main factor in more patience - and even difficult this writing lies, by knowing what the Kurds endured long waiting period and already they had been through. But for genuine negotiations with Baghdad, not just waiting for: It is the most precious thing you can Kurdish leadership is doing at the moment.

The Kurdish visits to Baghdad, the US-backed and other international bodies, is the "World Bank" led to discussion with] Kurdistan, and push America to arm the "Peshmerga" and equipping, and what led to the delivery of more than fifty thousand barrels additional oil per day from Kirkuk to support the economy «Kurdistan Regional Government». The Kurdish visits to Baghdad, encouraged by the world's most influential economies, make parking Iran in the way of Kurdish independence more difficult. However, by the most reliable in the traffic of Independence continues through Baghdad - and not through Ankara, and not through the White House, headed by Trump, too.

Michael Knights

The Washington Institute

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