Iraq ignite conflict and quotas .. «OPEC» is preparing for new battles

Capitals (Reuters) likely that Iraq is increasing its production of oil in 2016, though less dramatic than this year, which will make the battle of market share raging among members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Countries (OPEC) and their competitors from abroad, a battle that was forced because of Baghdad to sell some types of raw low price up to $ 30 a barrel.

 Iraq's production jumped in 2015 by about 500 thousand barrels per day, equivalent to 13%, according to the International Energy Agency, making Iraq a source of faster growth in production in the world and an important locomotive for increased OPEC production.

And mostly likely that this growth is moving towards recording a modest increase next year, which will ease the downward pressure on prices, which are approaching from the low levels recorded in 2009. But the lifting of sanctions on Iran or calm the violence in Libya, it is possible that OPEC production increases more, If Saudi Arabia did not reduce or other members of the Organization produced.

Eugene said Lendl, an analyst at Jah.ba.sa Energy in Vienna: «stability of Iraq production growth or height is limited, and will create some possibilities of increasing prices, but if you say another Iran, Libya and other serious paper».

 A source from the Iraqi oil sector, told Reuters that Iraq plans to export between three and 3.2 million barrels per day from the south in 2016, but declined to give a forecast for exports from northern Iraq, which resumed in late 2014, and increased to about 600 thousand barrels per day, in spite of tensions between Baghdad and the Kurdistan region. One delegate said: «The Iraqis need to inform OPEC to plan for next year, and the Iranians have not seen anyone to now on the quantities that they can already pumped, production from these two countries is important for OPEC to take a decision».

 However, the delegate added that it is unlikely to reduce OPEC production. Because of the fall in oil prices of more than 50% of the more than $ 100 a barrel in mid-2014, the high cost of the battle waged by the Iraqi government against the organization of the Islamic State, Pat pay dues to oil companies more difficult, leading to spending cuts. BP develop the Rumaila field and the company's budget reduced by billion to $ 2.5 billion this year, as the company braced for the possibility of recording a significant increase in the production of Iraq in 2016, said Michael Townsend, head of BP in the Middle East «It's hard to see an increase large production next year. »

 «Shell» and does not expect any growth in the Majnoon field, which holds the production of it, where Martin and Atselar, head of the integrated gas operations in the company, said: «at the moment we look forward to stable levels of crazy». Others believe executives working in southern Iraq also that production will stabilize in Iraq next year little changed, while others warn of falling production by the second half of 2017, due to declining investment. Iraq has all what motivates to continue production at full capacity, as the actual prices less than the record crude prices. And at least the official price for the sale of Basra heavy crude of $ 10.40 a barrel for Brent crude for shipment in December. Sources say that the shipments are sold at a lower price dollar or two for the official selling price of no less than $ 30 a barrel.

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