10/19/15 Goat

Hello Everyone,

I know I may sound like a broken record about Iraq resolving this corruption and terrorist issue but this is the stage Iraq is in right now. It will take a couple more months to resolve. The progress is slow but sure.

You will see more major resistance to the reforms to come. It will be coming from those who have the most to lose including the  Dowa party, Shia Block, Maliki and his goons. However, the three presidents are staying firm and on track in the direction they need to lead the country. So far no assassinations of the “good guys” in this saga. This is the good news of today. 

We need to have the “full” Reconciliation Conference. This will be the grand finale. RV about that timeframe.
​
This is the plan.

Today’s News

Today is Monday October 19th and still no RV. Can we expect to see an RV soon?

No! I can tell you with all my heart and soul there will be NO RV until at least early January 2016. Again I will say this is only if Iraq can meet and fulfill its promises as part of the future process and plans for Iraq. Can they maybe accomplish their commitments prior? Maybe but come-on folks! Let’s get real- Okay can we do that? Is Iraq ever on time?

Since when has Iraq ever accomplished anything on time, except maybe the anti-money laundering and terrorist law and this was a total amazement to all. So if they can do this then why can’t they always be on time? Sorry I do not have much faith in them as long as the Maliki syndrome is still present. It is part of the legislative bottleneck.

We are definitely now on track for an early 2016 opportunity. I have come to this conclusion now. We will not see any significant opportunity until this timeframe. Sorry folks, this is life and we must live with it. We can certainly not control Iraq but the UN and the USA can certainly try to prevent any major mistakes again. They will not let the RV go until they know darn well Iraq is ready.

You have to see it clearly now. Since the Maliki syndrome (this is what they call it in D.C.) they are being extra careful on how they handle Iraqi politics and are being forceful and more demanding of Iraq than ever before.

But they know they must handle this situation with “kid” gloves. The last thing they want is a bloody civil war and they almost had one too with many thousands of Sunni’s joining ISIS (who got the momentum going last year). ISIS did not just suddenly cross over into Iraq on June of 2014. The government of Maliki knew very well its presence was growing and would someday be a threat. Yet he did nothing to stop it. Why?

He knew he was losing support and probably would be forced out of the prime minister office for a third term. So ISIS was a tool he used. Something is his back pocket to try to manipulate  1)instruct  a coup de’etat to forcefully against the government; 2) start a civil war thus creating the needed chaos for a takeover. We  know the coup did not work and we see the slow dissolution of the ISIS threat.

The PTB are not going to let this country get out of hand again. I can assure you of this. 

Why do I say not until early 2016?  I will tell you, but not because there will be those insisting on bashing Mnt Goat for bringing you the reality of the situation. I will tell you the news because I care about each and every one of you dinar holders out there. I know the news is confusing at times but it does not have to be. You have simply been listening to the wrong people. 

In fact I have been telling you all along and leading you to a 2016 date only many of you can’t read or refuse to take some time out of your busy days to learn. This is not my fault. I have presented the evidence many times already. 

Many will now  tell you I can not back up my claim with FACTS for this 2016 timeframe. They will tell you I am just all talk. Really?

Then what did I bring you in my last 50 news letters over these past 4 months if not FACTUAL information? It is not one single event as many want to peg to this RV situation. The RV is a culmination of having the level of stability needed. There are many factors involved and it is not as simple as looking as some bank screens for “pending” rates or hearing gossip from some important meeting.

Oh- but you didn’t take the time to read all my news letters? Can’t be bothered since they are too long? Oh- so you are now ready to bash Mnt Goat but in fact you really don’t even know what she had presented to you over these last four to five months. Shame on you!

So are you really concerned about the truth anyhow and just want to be bash, hype it up and get on that roller coaster ride again. Sorry no roller coaster here to get on. I will pass on all that nonsense.

No hype, No rumors, just the FACTS.

As I have stated before, I know the overall plan. I have been sharing this plan with you and have given you many golden nuggets and bits and pieces of it along the way. Have you been paying attention? There are more in today’s news letter.

So for all those that want the FACTS to backup my now FIRM claim that we will have to wait to at least early 2016 for any solid opportunity of an RV, - GO AND READ MY LAST 4 MONTHS OF NEWS LETTERS.  (Link to [url=http://www.dinarrecaps.com/our-blog/category/mnt goat]Mnt Goat Category[/url] at Recaps)

I have one prime example as to how these supposedly responsible people (so called intel “gurus”) bring you the news and put in their twisted nonsense to the news. So last week we read articles about the CBI offering gold to the citizens of Iraq. In articles they tell it is to assist in resolving the “liquidity” problem in the banks. Their words not mine. Nothing more. So how did this turn into a RV tactic all of a sudden. Let me explain this nonsense and put some clarity on it for you.

First lets talk about this liquidity problem. How many articles must we read on this topic before we understand it. I will put it to you simply. If the citizens have no money and there is little investment as in new businesses then  where is all the money for deposits in the banks going to come from? Did I mention too that most citizens don’t even trust the banks.

How many other articles must we read that the CBI is attempting to stimulate the banks by  shifting over billions for government loan money to small businesses and agriculture. To formulate a prosperous economy it does not just happen. You need to stimulate it and prime it but at some point it must take off. How many times can they keep priming it?

The people simply need money in their hands. The money can not just keep coming from government handouts (which are 3 months late now anyhow due to the economic crisis and budget deficits). So where will this money come from so the banks can loan it out. What are the quality of these loans too on the ones they do make? Are they investment loans or people trying to “survive” loans (loans to pay bills while they wait 3 months for the payment of salaries and pensions)?

Investment loans can increase yet more deposits in the banks as the businesses grow. Survival loans ultimately do not get repaid if the economy does not pick up. They drain the bank usually poor lending decisions.

Can you see the cycle Iraq is in?

Two important questions - How will the CBI increase the liquidity in the banks (increase the money to loan out) and  how will they increase the “quality” of the loans?   

They tried increasing revenues with the tariff and customs implementation. Just recently they admitted openly this will not succeed unless they have a significant increase in the value of their currency. (I too told you this when they first announced the tariffs).

Next they tried the sovereign bonds drive. This too could not work since they do not have a very good international credit rating and thus the needed payout is too high. So now we see them attempting another gold sell off. This is directly aimed now at bringing money to the banks instead of moving yet another billions more from the CBI.

Many have said this is aimed at pulling in yet more of the 3 zero notes in preparation for the RV. Really?

So what planet do you live on? Are we talking about the same articles here? I can assure you almost 90% of all 3 zero notes are gone already and out of circulation in Iraq. The economy is now running off of the US dollar. The IMF does not like this and is telling Iraq they have to Jan 1st 2016 to get off the US dollar or else.

In other words they are kicking Iraq in the pants and scolding them for taking so long in this conversion process from the old “provisional” post war currency to the new permanent middle east dinar.

So this gold offering will be purchased and paid for with US dollars NOT so much dinars. This is good and it will help to bring in the US dollars off the streets too but in the long run will have little impact on anything except to increase funding in the banks for more money for healthy business loans, thus increase bank liquidity.   

Everything is not about the RV!

As I will keep saying - the RV will be the result of the measures being taken for stabilization in areas of politics, the economy and investment opportunities. Most citizens do not even now the RV process is already in play. All they know is they are getting off the 3 zero notes and on to the US dollar. Many think they will be staying on the US dollar so why would they be protesting asking for the long awaited RV? Does not even begin to make any sense. The RV and the launching of the lower denoms will be a surprise for most.

Article Begins

ECONOMIST CALLS FOR THE CENTRAL BANK TO STIMULATE SAVINGS AND LOCALIZATION      

BAGHDAD -   
Called for a specialist in economic affairs Raad Twigg Iraqi Central Bank to stimulate and resettlement of savings among the public, returned the bank savings in Iraqi dinars to the public bond issue at interest rates lower than the interest rates of long-term part of the proposed economic solutions that represent solutions that work automatically in crises. Said Twigg in a press statement that "the bond issue in Iraqi dinar is one of the monetary policies that make public a tool of monetary policy tools, which in its importance makes the central bank has a control range in the demand for money and displayed"

He pointed out that "this process must be sustainable and not be limited in time of financial crisis, "noting that" this can increase the Savings awareness and then awareness of the bank, which would be an increase in rationalization consumer indirect and enrich the Iraqi market financial instruments and the possibility of the central bank to use this policy in withdrawals and pumping cash and drying part of monetary stability and reduced worker speculation. "Predicted Iraq's draft budget for next year in 2016, a deficit of 29.4 trillion dinars (25.81 billion dollars), which proposed the budget size of 113.5 trillion Iraqi dinars (99.65 billion dollars)

Article Ends

I will also say eventually the US dollar will be pulled off the streets when the new lower denoms dinar are issued. But the lower denoms dinar must be worth more than a US dollar to be successful. So much for the RV 90 cents debate. Would you hand in something worth more to get something of lesser value? At this point there must be a significant incentive for the people to get of the US dollar.

Now let’s get to the second question – How will Iraq increase the quality of the loans?
Oh – does the pending Investment law sound familiar. Oh- could this be the mechanism….lol…lol….I am being sarcastic since I know this is the mechanism.

So why is it taking so darn long to get this law implemented? We heard that last Tuesday 10/13 was a date set for a final vote. Now we are hearing that today could be the day yet I do not see it on parliament’s agenda.

Anyhow the told us the issues with the law are being worked out and we should expect to see it shortly. Seems each time they attend or sponsor an investment conference the aftermath is more amendments to the law. Is it now ready? I do not see any more of these conferences scheduled so maybe they are really done.

The article below is a good one if you want to know the hold up with this law and the details.

I quote from the article – “Parliamentary weights to vote in today's session”.

Article Begins

THE AMENDED INVESTMENT LAW, A MOVE TO STRENGTHEN THE ECONOMY      

http://www.alsabaah.iq/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=102630

10/19/2015 0:00
Parliamentary weights to vote in today's session 

BAGHDAD - Muhannad Abdul Wahab
counting members of the parliamentary Economic Committee that the vote on the amendments to the investment law, and approval would be a positive step in favor of the country as an economic way to attract investment and employment and strengthen the national economy and building a solid foundation master structures that need by the country, and it underlines the House of Representatives that the aim of the bill is to address some of the constraints shown by the practice when applying the law during the last period. 
The Investment Law No. (13) of 2006 has been passed in the first electoral session of the House of Representatives.   extensive discussions and saw stages of completion Project Second Amendment Act of Investment Law No. 13 of 2006, several meetings were marked by sharply discussions that have put the task of perceptions in terms of building ideas that will be effective and in the interest of the country and thus open up investment in the country's process and deal with it on the basis of flexibility.

A member of the Economic Committee Nora Albjara «The law passed several stages and extensive studies depending on the importance of the draft second amendment bill to the Investment Law No. 13 of 2006, in which the First Deputy Chairman of the House of Representatives Hamoudi in the meetings of the Committee hoped to vote on the draft second amendment law Investment Law No. (13) for the year 2006 in the House of Representatives session for next Monday. confirmed in a statement to «morning» that the House of Representatives completed the first and second of the second draft amendment to the Law Investment Law readings.

She «to that (27) deputies raised a number of views and proposals and claims when discussing the draft second amendment bill to the Investment Law No. 13 of 2006, was most notably the proposal to establish a department for planning within the Investment Authority and the inclusion of public sector investment as this will lead to the privatization will affect the economic situation and the labor and the need to have the House of Representatives the right to control the Investment Authority and limiting the mandate of the head of the investment of time and one without the extension and the adoption of specific timing for the selection of officials in the Investment Authority in order to get away from the resort to the appointment by proxy. amend laws in turn between a member of the Committee Knight Knight that the Presidium of the House of Representatives held (3) meetings in the presence of the committees of the economy, investment and financial
 Alniabaten, and head of the investment and discussed at the meetings the second draft amendment to the law of investment and exited the new amendments to the investment law to reach the sober law that guarantees the rights of all and aims to promote and stimulate economic and human resources and the development of a practical mechanism for the development of investment in the country. He said in a statement «morning» that the Committee on Economy and Investment held its first international conference in order to contribute to the improvement and development of the investment environment in Iraq, in the presence of ministers as well as Arab and foreign investors, agents and ministries and heads of the national investment and Conference recommended overcoming the obstacles facing the application of the investment law.

He pointed out that the Chairman of the Committee of Economy and investment Jawad al-Bolani between the second amendment to the draft second amendment to the Law of Investment Law No. (13) of 2006 included five paragraphs President concerning «the developer and arbitration, financing and the development bank to support the investor and the establishment of the Iraqi investors Union» hosted the specialists for its part, he indicated a member of the Economic Committee Najiba Najib to that the economic and investment commission has made (4) hosted the was the first with the head of the National Investment Commission Sami al-Araji, to discuss the text of the Second Amendment to the Iraqi investment law, stressing that the Commission has introduced a series of radical law changes, which will be an important factor in the creation of excellent investment environment and meet the aspiration of all parties.

She drew Najib in a statement to «morning» that the summary Alastdavat was agreement on texts that will increase the size of the powers of the Iraqi ministries to invest its resources in the investment side, as well as to include the draft law some mechanisms applied for the first time, including arbitration and the Union of investors and an end to the problem of ownership of land and roads awarded Investment.   

She said «that the economic and investment commission expanded seminar held within the seminars held by on the draft second amendment to the law of the Iraqi Investment Law No. series (13) of 2006, in the presence of investment circles managers in the Ministries of Agriculture, Defense, Construction and Housing, oil and devoted the seminar to discuss the issue of government land for projects allocation investment and the most important obstacles facing converted into land for investment, procedures and laws that stand in the way of turning them into investment land as the symposium discussed the material and legal paragraphs that hinder and prevent the government land allocated to investment.

completion of the Iraqi economy for his part said a researcher in political affairs and economic Rahim al-Shammari « that step vote on the draft amendment of the Investment Law completion of the Iraqi economy, came the time that passes by Iraq and the Middle East, economic and security crisis requires activation of agricultural and urban industrial sectors, which need to simplify regulatory procedures and laws. He Shammari in a statement to «the morning» an urgent need to amend the paragraphs of the current materials and the Investment Law No. 13 of 2006 and members of the economy and investment are involved in this way as an economic way to attract investment and operation of labor and strengthen the economy and build a solid foundation structures that are basic to the country needs.

Article Ends

What else is happening in Iraq?

We hear about more corruption exposed as they audit the second tier community banks for money laundering and found it in many.

We heard about the Iraqi authorities have called for the arrest of Trade Minister Mohammed Abdul Kareem and his brother following a corruption investigation, judicial spokesman Abdul-Sattar al-Birqdar said on Sunday. Two officials at the trade ministry's legal section said the minister faced charges related to accepting bribes, receiving illegal benefits, and misusing his position. 

We heard about Abadi asking to remove old posters of Maliki in and around Baghdad. Of course the Maliki goons protested but it won’t make must difference. They will be removed. They claim he still holds political position as heading the Dowa party. This position too will soon be taken from Maliki.

It’s mid month already and still many salaries not yet paid. The protesting continues once again and is heating up. 

Update: 2016 Iraqi Budget

So another year has almost passed and still no RV. Yes, a new Iraqi budget and they did open the 2015 budget and did spend it and still no RV. I can assure you of this.

So where was the dependency on the RV to open and spend the 2015 budget? We all heard this nonsense from the intel gurus.  I do not get it. Again just foolish rumors with no FACTUAL data to back it up. So let’s not go down this rabbit hole again for the 2016 budget…..please…..

What we should be concentrating on is whether there is a deficit and how they will fill the gaps. I believe they are attempting to align many events together and the 2016 budget passing parliament is one of them.

So the DRAFT 2016 budget is completed in the council of ministers and was passed on to the parliament today. They tell us it will take a 30 days to look it over and debate it. This brings us to late November…hint…hint…

We also know the Reconciliation Conference is not yet fully scheduled but they are talking about early December…hint..hint…

Article Begins

COM (council of ministers) APPROVED DRAFT FEDERAL BUDGET 2016      

The Cabinet approves, in today's meeting, chaired by the Prime Minister, Dr. Haider Ubadi, Bill of the federal budget for the fiscal year 2016

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10153688503213633

Article Ends

Article Begins

PARLIAMENTARY FINANCE: WE NEED 30 DAYS TO APPROVE THE 2016 BUDGET
02:44: 10/19/2015

Khandan - The parliamentary Finance Committee, the House of Representatives needs a month for the completion of the federal budget debate and approval before the end of the current legislative term.

Said committee member Abdul Qader Mohammed, said that "the Committee needed to 3 weeks for the completion of discussions the federal budget for 2016 and a week to put in the House of Representatives for a vote," adding that "the Council end of approving the budget within one month after receiving him that there were no objections great. "

Mohammed said that "the figures contained in the budget law after reducing the numbers of the draft before the Council of Ministers is acceptable and appropriate to the current situation on the sale of oil prices in the global markets."

The cabinet approved on Sunday, the federal budget for 2016 project at $ 106 trillion Iraqi dinars, the equivalent (90.9 billion) and a deficit of 23 trillion dinars, the equivalent of ($ 19.7 billion).

Article Ends

Till next time…. Auf Wiedersehen!

Peace and Luv To Ya All, 
Mnt Goat