News Time with BGG 8/23/15

by **RoyBoy** Mon Aug 24, 2015 8:29 am

BGG There is - quite literally, so much news I don't know where to start...
BGG I wrote a dissertation on "where we are" earlier...
BGG here it is...

BGG Analysts: al-Maliki at war again after being convicted of the report of Mosul
BGG http://www.dinarupdates.com/showthre...l=1#post128045

BGG Notes:Maliki came back from Iran where he met with most of his most ardent Shia supporters (not all Shias support him – as before).
BGG (or has been the case for the last few years)
BGG The Dawa party (and Maliki) “facially supports” these recent reforms called for by the Iraqi Clerics and the demonstrators (the people)… However, it’s a political tactic. He needs to look like..
“HE’S THE REFORMER”, or at least line himself up with the reforms…
Then there’s these rants blaming Erbil and Turkey for the fall of Mosul. Maliki must think no one remembers Barzani going to the press when Maliki wouldn’t listen about ISIS on the move.

BGG There are articles out that affirm they put the SLC at Abadi’s disposal… again a weak showing of being “on the side of reforms” – not the “focus of the reforms”…
On the other hand Maliki is secretly attempting to subvert Abadi everything he does.
It is worth noting – there are numerous OP ED’s out recently pointing out that if Maliki really wanted reforms he would have done so long ago.

BGG Maliki is in now in FULL DAMAGE control…
The Friday before the Mosul Report was coming out – he went to Iran to gather support. This move seems to have (temporarily) worked. This caught me a little off-guard. I didn’t think he had that kind of support from Iran once they pulled their support from his bid for a 3rd term.
He did not come back until he had some assurance of some kind – though no guarantee, he must feel he has some potential for survival.

BGG This just goes to show you. I was told some time ago he had deep support from some very unlikely sources. It appears both Sunni leadership was “on the take” as well as some level of support from the Iranian Mullahs. Though they don’t seem to support another Maliki term – they don’t appear ready to throw him overboard just yet either. There is no guarantee they won’t though.
They have even sent Gen Qassem Soleimani into Iraq south of Baghdad to orchestrate a “quelling” of the demonstrations and supposedly to secure Maliki’s safety. However, I am not convinced his ultimate safety is Soleimani’s underlying mission.

BGG This report of Gen. Soleimani being there is limited in it’s scope (how many times/and how it is reported) – so I view this with a healthy dose of skepticism. Also – this frantic move to maintain control over Iraq may well backfire on them. It is becoming clearer and clearer they have some agenda. This is surely not lost on the Iraqi people. Overall, they are typically not happy about external influence – US or Iranian. They don’t like it. One good thing – all of this has forced the Iranians to play their hand in a more public fashion. Now they all know…
Abadi was quoted just recently as saying…

…”the prime minister does not think now in dissent nor undo the reforms, and will not seek to raise Maliki’s name from the list of defendants fall of Mosul.”…

BGG: Meaning – he won’t take Maliki’s name out of this report… it will play out.
I don’t see – with the mounting charges, how Maliki survives this barrage. Mosul, Halabja, embezzlement from the CBI, the Speicher massacre, the prison break, it goes on and on and on…
Further – my comments regarding “Maliki as gone” – are clearly “forward looking statements” and ARE IN PROGRESS. Visible progress has been made – for now, Maliki is NOT A VP and is NOT WELCOME in official GOI meetings. Party meetings are one thing. GOI is another thing entirely.

BGG: Rather than get caught up in who’s right and who’s wrong and what the details are – what about the WHY?? WHY did Abadi move now?? Was it demonstrators?? No – I doubt it very much. Maliki can think he has everyone right where he wants them – but keep in mind this whole campaign of reform was kicked off by the WB/IMF telling Iraq to get their AML (Anti-Money Laundering) and corruption under control (both issues pointed DIRECTLY AT MALIKI). They were given until Oct 1st to get an AML law put in place. It would probably help Abadi to have an Investment Law in place as well.
Thus far Abadi has responded. Judiciary is next. He needs to keep up the pressure...

BGG: So my final point is this...
BGG: (current comments)

BGG: in spite of all the "stock market turmoil" around the world - Iraq is responding (purely) to the WB/IMF unction over AML policies. Period.

BGG: so no matter what "current circumstances" look like - the WB and IMF have an agenda. Maliki isn't part of that equation.

larrykn: malki might not be part of the equation but couldn' t he and his gang still throw wrenches in the works and slow things down
larrykn: I just don't understand why they just don't take him out

BGG: anything is possible - but I fall back on the foundation that the WB and IMF were the ones (ultimately) behind these reforms and whatever those crooked idiots are up to - this is bigger than them. I doubt they are allowed to stand in the way (long term).

BGG: OK - on to some more news...

BGG: Dawa Party: Abadi not and will not resign from the party

BGG: The leader of the Islamic Dawa Party on the Keywords, Sunday, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi did not resign from the party, noting that al-Abbadi of the party leaders and will remain in office.
Keywords, that "some calls to make Abadi his resignation from the Dawa Party is completely logical and said we are against these calls," stressing that "the Dawa Party, the government does not interfere with the work at all, which reforms the announcement by al-Abadi."
And that "some try to show that the Dawa party controls some decisions Abadi, and this is not true the party does not interfere with the work of al-Abadi, either closely or from afar," stressing that "al-Abadi rest of the Islamic Dawa Party did not submit his resignation is not now nor in the future."
Some politicians from different political blocks and demonstrators called on Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to resign from the Islamic Dawa Party and a full-time management of the Iraqi state.

BGG: I commented on this earlier - it's almost comical how these characters act.

BGG: This stems from some knuckled head in the Dawa party putting up the weak suggestion that Abadi resign his post in the Dawa party so he can focus "solely on his reforms" - which really means they are looking for a way to minimize his influence internally and give Maliki some minor base of power...

BGG: tells me Maliki is "under the gun" almost everywhere...

BGG: internally - externally, internationally - etc, etc, etc....

BGG: and this article is saying Abadi won't resign - OF COURSE HE WON'T - WHY WOULD HE??

BGG: He's got Maliki on the ropes. Time for more pressure - NOT A RESIGNATION... Dawa party dreamers

CONTINUATION:

rcookie: I think its about M looking for ROI on the massive payouts to leaders in Dawa

BGG: that much could be true.
BGG: he has sown some seed. Don't be shocked when these crazy maneuvers keep coming... whomever it was - is moving for the "piper"...

Royal: as to news from million last night on ALL THE ECONOMIC REFORM she stated it would be done in 72 hours would that be like monday night

BGG: I think there must be some misunderstanding - that doesn't sound like something MD would say - but I could be mistaken.

Royal: sorry 48 hrs
Royal: It was in her news

BGG: I don't seee anyway possible for all economic reforms to be completed in 48 hours.
BGG Royal: I will go look that up for you.
BGG Royal: Millionday [...this 48 hour implementation for the economic reforms, would that include an RV?] GOOD QUESTION.

BGG: Millionday Article quote: "Today launched the (economic morning) new shape with the start of the morning 48 as usual to call since the idea of expansion, three pages devoted to the economy out of its importance at the local and global scales..." THE ECONOMIC REFORMS HAVE BEGUN -- THEY ARE TO SATISFY THE CITIZENS AND ALSO ADDRESS NOT ONLY THE DOMESTIC -- BUT THE GLOBAL SCALE. SO THE PROCESS MAY BE HARD/DIFFICULT BUT THE PAY OFF (NO PUN INTENDED) WILL BE GREATER...THIS WILL BE RELEASED TO THE CITIZENS IN THE MORNING [SUNDAY] (MEANING THE REPORT) [this goes out to citizens in am? and the reference to 48? 48 hr activation?] YES IT DOES.

BGG Royal: She was referring to an article...
BGG Royal: I think in the best case the "reforms could begin" as portrayed in this article
BGG Royal: and the only thing she said was a report of such would be "due" or coming in 48 hours.

larrykn: I thought it was awful funny that they would put out a date when they were going to do this

BGG: because they didn't - nor would they.
BGG: or will they - I should say.

faith1: It was my question to MD,,, may I comment ?

BGG: while I immediately disagree - especially based on what is published. Go ahead.

faith1: MD answered... YES IT DOES to the first part of my q,,, she did not really respond to the 48 or what 48 meant in the article... just how i understand her to have answered me.... hope this helps..
faith1: YES it does.... will ... or info will go out to citizens in am

BGG: It does not - help us out - how am I wrong??

faith1: I DON'T KNOW if anyone is wrong...

BGG: the article and her answer only refer to some report going out as to some initiation of Economic reforms.

faith1: ok thanks

BGG: not the completion - that is a virtual impossibility. While I will be as happy as anyone with a report of an RV in the morning... I don't read it that way.
BGG: the good news - we only have to wait until about noon to see what's what...

=========================

BGG: Deputy: we refuse to stop the work of customs tariff

BGG: Baghdad It refused to economic and investment commission in Parliament, to stop the work of customs tariff, as pointed out that activated Cedar money and stimulating the economy. " A member of the committee MP Ali Mohammed told JD: "There are demands by some quarters to postpone the work of customs tariff," noting that "the law has been postponed since 2010 has been activated with the beginning of the month of the current year." "We categorically reject and postpone work this time for the Law of the customs tariff because it is one of the important economic laws of the country, because he Seder big money of the state and stimulating the economy." He noted that "activating the investment law will attract investors and will have a significant role in supporting the Iraqi private sector."

BGG: This report is a BIGGIE - Very big...
BGG: I have pointed out over and over...
BGG: Their own economists say... tariffs without value will be bad for their citizens. If they have this problem with demonstrations now - just wait until tariffs are implemented without value. BIG TROUBLE....
BGG: and for some reason they don't seem to be taking their foot off the tariff "pedal"... FULL BLAST!!
BGG: can I get a _ _ _ _ - _ _ _

Doodle Brain: WHOOPOW!!!

itsaboutjesus (IAJ): BGG, do you have the link for your report of "tariff pedal"? and, does this report say when are they trying to apply the tariff?

BGG: http://www.dinarupdates.com/showthre...customs-tariff

ghost: Hi, I'm brand new - this is a bit more theoretical, so maybe not appropriate.. Shia seem to be infighting a lot right now - If it continues, will that make progress more or less likely?

BGG: that is the side we want to see split - this is great news. Very good observation on your part.
BGG: There is a distinct split in the Dawa Party - some withdrawing support from Maliki and backing Abadi - this is good... there are also numerous National Alliance figures supporting direct legal action against Maliki... the SLC seems pretty staunch yet - but that could change.

diane1: WITH ALL THIS POSSIBLE ECONOMIC REFORM HAPPENING WHO WILL THEY GET TO REPLACE ALAK IN THE CBI THAT IS QUALIFIED?

BGG: anyone - including the dog catcher - is more qualified than Alak.
BGG: Turki??
BGG: there are others as well.
BGG: I thought the timing of the international recognition of Turki was a little odd a while back.

diane1: CAN THEY PULL THE REFORM TRIGGER WILL TURKI BE ABLE TO PULL ECONOMIC TRIGGER THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY WORD OF WHO WILL TAKE THE CBI CHAIR

BGG: No word yet.

billionaire: BGG, did you give your opinion on the article that stated Abadi is getting rid of Parliament, placing a temp government and rewriting the constitution. Sorry if you have addressed this, I just got back.

BGG: I have not - I am skeptical of such a move. I saw it but I don't recall the source. In fact, I read it and immediately dismissed it.
BGG: maybe I should go back and reread it
BGG: the source tells the story.

billionaire: I think the source was khabaar

BGG: no - who is talking and why.
BGG: if it was NA, Dawa or SLC - it's jibberish.
BGG: that bunch have much bigger immediate problems.

billionaire: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/b...k%2F50988.html

billionaire: Syed???? Don't know who that is.

BGG: Mahdi Al-Hafidh is the one calling on Abadi to do this - not Abadi talking about doing it.
BGG: I wish we could disband our House on the grounds they are "uneducated and ignorant"...

billionaire: Who is that? His advisor?

BGG: tough to say where this speaker lands. He was (at one time) with Allawi's "list" but with drew and is listed as "independent"...
BGG: this sounds like a "well-intentioned" - but mostly "ratings geared" by an independent party ??
BGG: comment / interview - that is...

==============================

BGG: Ok - Lightning round - I've got a few pieces I want to get in yet tonight...
BGG: HANG ON!!
BGG: Jubouri: the reform process will continue and Parliament is continuing to build the democratic structure of Iraq

BGG: House Speaker Salim al-confirmed "that the reform process taking place in Iraq will continue, and that Parliament is continuing to build the democratic structure of Iraq, either through laws that touches the daily reality of the citizen or through monitoring government performance and hold negligent legislation."

BGG: Interesting comments thrown into an otherwise usual political type meeting...
BGG: (meeting with the Norwegian delegate)...
BGG: We can not interfere with the judiciary completely independent from the executive branch

BGG: Information Office of the Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi stressed can not interfere with the judiciary as an independent authority expected response to calls for reform, along the lines of the executive and legislative branches.

BGG: Which means Maliki is in trouble - Abadi isn't taking his name off the list.

BGG: Falling oil prices widen the budget deficit gap and alarming economic crisis

BGG: The Iraqi Government signed a significant embarrassment as a result of the sudden drop in the world oil market, and are looking either for more pressure unnecessary expenses, and either resort to borrowing which he dropped an adviser to Prime Minister Haidar Al-Abbadi, who attributed the decline to lack of control over the global market, and acknowledged that these variables will appear results negatively on Iraq.

BGG: Which is exactly my point in recent comments. The falling oil prices aren't a bad thing for us - puts more pressure on Iraq's budget.
BGG: might well "flush out" an RV earlier than even they might be looking forward to.

==============================

BGG: This is the hummdinger...
BGG: Hakim and Amery stress to accelerate to meet the legitimate demands of the Iraqi people

BGG: The head of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq Ammar al-Hakim, and the secretary general of the Badr Organization, Hadi al-Amiri, on Sunday, on the importance of addressing common challenges and the fight against terrorism even eliminate, the parties stressed the need to speed up to meet the legitimate demands of the Iraqi people.

BGG: Hakim being on the Iraq side of the argument - against the Iranian Mullahs doesn't surprise me... Sadr is a little quiet - maybe I'm over thinking it... BUT Ameri - the Sec Gen of the Badr group warning Iran of monkeying around in Iraq business (as he has been all day) is shocking.
BGG: The Badr organization has close ties to Gen Qassem Soleimani... and reportedly Soleimani is in Iraq (reportedly) assuring Maliki's safety. I guess Maliki may need his protection ??
BGG: Very good turn of events.
BGG: End of "Lightning Round"

jd: Was the dinar at 3.22 to the $ when oil was 30$ a barrel during Sadams reign?

BGG: Sounds right.

Doodle Brain: Just saw an announcement on 'All Iraq News'..it might not be a big deal but, --"Urgent-Abadi to appoint new Secretary General for Council of Ministers." May I please ask what your thoughts are re: this and how it plays in to the current reform fast-track?? Here is the (short) article: "Baghdad (AIN) –The Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi will soon appoint a new secretary general for the Council of Ministers, informed source said. The source told AIN "PM Abadi will task a new secretary general for the CoM in order to form a committee that would be tasked with making evaluations for the performance of the ministers." Abadi has already dismissed the secretary general of the CoM on August 12 and his assistants within the phase of reforms to reduce governmental expenditure-end.

BGG: I suspect the previous Sec Gen of his CoM was "tainted". I don't see this as bad thing - it's a good thing...and it sounds like things are in high gear.
BGG: no stalemate.

billionaire: Do you happen to know what the laws are regarding the Maliki situation. From what I gather, his position has been eliminated but he refuses to resign. What could be his next step by law? What would be the next step for Abadi by law? Or do you think the officials are just going to wait for the ICC to pick him up?

BGG: Not sure - but I have been thinking the same thing. Currently - he doesn't have immunity of any kind and if he needed General Qassem Soleimani as a body guard they must be worried about something - if any of that about Soleimani is even true.

jonhenry: would the lower oil prices have an effect on the rate they would come out with....and how much do you think the country will (save) by getting the money laundering taken care of annually.

BGG: I don't see the oil causing a huge problem... main thing - it may get things started quicker.
BGG: and they will save HUGE MONEY DAILY by getting these crooks out of sensitive positions. HUGE MONEY.

cjquade54: Maliki was given 2 days (I think) to get out of the palace a week or 2 ago. Do you know if he's still there?

BGG: Well - he went to Iran (they should have changed the locks ) and it was plainly in question if he would even come back. Read the Iraqi OP ED comments. They didn't think he would come back.
BGG: I doubt he's moved yet - it would be major news.
BGG: OK gang - that's about it for me...

BGG: tune in for Round Table tomorrow at 12:00 - bring some News and join in!! :winky winky: