MT GOAT UPDATE 8/11/15 BROUGHT OVER FROM RECAPS

Thanks GeorgeH for sending this to us today:

UU6726 – “A Critical Junction”  by Mnt Goat

Hello Everyone,

Here in my little village of Bavaria already we plan for fall festivities. Harvest season is near and the fields are green and full of crops. The cattle are fattened and almost ready for slaughter. Meinen Kinder too are thinking about returning to school and prepare. Wow how this summer is passing quickly!

The tourist season is still in high gear and will continue until after Munich Oktoberfest season and then to winter sports in Alps. So business is good.

It is weird as it seems like just yesterday our village was celebrating the springtime Maibaum (Maypole) fest and I informed you of the great news I had just learned to assist us as to why this RV is stalled. Like spring this news was refreshing and we looked forward to seeing it all play out as the summertime rolled on.
....
This news was about the process/plan and the requirements for Iraq to complete the necessary laws to support the Reconciliation Reforms and other reforms. We learned this was a prerequisite to any currency reform and was mandatory before we could see any RV.

The news from Iraq did not tell us all the needed reforms as they would only give us bits and pieces of this effort. However there were subtle hints of what was to come.

If we were paying much attention we could see the long range timeline just months away. If we were smart we learned to ignore all this hype about this everyday / any day nonsense since we now knew better. If we were smart we also learned to change who we were listening too for our news of Iraqi events.

At this time we also learned about a coalition being put together to combat the infiltration of ISIS and DAASH   and the newly elected prime minister told us they had a target to get ISIS under control by early summer (which would be late June early July.

The CBI told us at this time they needed a level of security to protect not only the citizens, tourists and investors but   to clean up the monetary corruption, Iranian counterfeiting practices and the Maliki influence.

Then in August we witnessed the kickoff of major military operations to retake Anbar / Mosul regions. This is still ongoing and has had some successes and failures.

But now we are at a junction point since the timelines to past agreements and targets are close to expiring and we know this can’t continue forever.

So we expected to see a major shake up in Iraq soon and it seems we are now witnessing it. Remember there is always a lull before the storm.

I will explain all this all in more detail to you today and try to explain why each event is important and the progression going forward to see this currency reform to its completion. Sorry today’s news letter is a bit long. So shut off your cell phone, get on your computer and print this off. Then get a nice hot cup of coffee and sit quietly to read.

If you have not done so already please read my 8/6 news letter as today’s news is a continued saga of this Iraqi revaluation.  Link

Today’s News

Today is Tuesday August 11th and still we have no news of an RV.

[Update: on the Reconciliation Reforms]

As I mentioned weeks ago this is now what we should be watching for the most. This is in full swing and lots of pressure to complete these reforms now. How do they implement these reforms? They pass laws and then the provinces and the ministries are expected to carry out the new laws.

Some say these news laws don’t matter or are constantly telling you they are all done. They are either full of BS or simply have no handle on the pulse of Iraq. Obviously if you want real news these are not the “gurus” you should be listening to.

So why do you think these protestors are so angry once again? Lots of promises made and still no real concrete successes for them to see.

I mentioned in my last couple news letters that at each month end, the government of Abadi is reviewed for progress on these reconciliation reforms. We now know they conducted the July “report card” and out of this we found out that there are 30 reforms total and about 24 of them are now done. There are laws that need to be passed and implemented in order to satisfy these reforms.

They are almost down to the end of their timeframe to complete these reforms as mid August upon us. 

The rest of the reforms (6) are on a short leash for completion. A year ago Abadi made promises to implement the reforms in order to take control and to form the new government. He had 1 year from August 14th 2014.

The government is considered FULLY formed but ONLY after these reforms (and others) are implemented. I have been saying this over and over again for months now and I firmly believe it to be true. We can see all  the importance on this handful of laws as many articles are telling us this too. Anyone who tells you differently simply does not know what they are talking about.

Since today is August 11th does it surprise you why I have been now saying we are approaching an excellent window of opportunity for a revaluation to occur but only if Abadi can pull off completing these reforms on time (August 14th).

I am not saying an RV will happen on Aug 14th so please do not put words in my mouth.
In fact I can almost bet you it won’t. But this is a close enough window to watch for it. 

I believe the hint to us will be an announcement of a “package” of laws ratified by president Masoum on or around this deadline. There will be no fan fair or “dancing” or “parties” in the streets of Iraq to celebrate…lol…. In fact most of the people in Iraq will not even notice the change in value until they get the lower denoms as they go to the banks, ATMs or exchange their dollars for the new dinars. 

Remember they have a law in place outlawing the use of dollars. They are not enforcing the law as of yet because they know of the delay in currency reforms and thus the US Dollar (USD) is the alternative since they already collected the majority of the larger 3 zero notes from the citizens. Their currency is like being in a holding pattern.

We know these last 6 remaining laws have been held up and are the most controversial and so this may be the showstopper. We know for a fact too Maliki and his goons still play a major role in influencing some of the parliament members to hold back on these laws and stall them. Many say this does not matter and again I ask you why in hell you keep listening to them since they do not have clue as to what is really happening in Iraq.

We can only watch and wait to see how Abadi and Jubouri can manage to pull this off. I am sure they will do some quick political maneuvering to circumvent these entities.

We know they are having 2 parliamentary sessions today to try to pass all the remaining laws to support the needed reforms. Can this be the week we see this “basket” of laws?

[New Inter-Governmental Reforms]

There are also other issues pending also that need to be addressed prior to any RV. I will also cover an update on these issues too. We are also seeing much progress in these issues. 

Here is something more to add to the mix of reforms on corruption. Article follows. Are you surprised?

Can now see how Maliki’s is now venerable? 

Since Iraq seems to be moving more towards a western model of government and away from the British model, do you think they may maintain at lease one vice president? Since Tariq al-Hashemi's  has not completed his term as VP (while under Maliki administration). Could he be the one selected to rightfully to take this position?

Article Follows:

Premier Haider al-Abadi, Facing Protests, Proposes Iraqi Government Overhaul

Demonstrators gathered in Baghdad's Tahrir Square in support of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, after he announced proposals to overhaul the government. Credit Reuters

BAGHDAD — Facing widespread protests against government corruption and poor services, as well as a crucial call for change from the country’s top Shiite cleric, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi proposed on Sunday to radically reshape the dysfunctional political system of Iraq that has been entrenched since the American-led invasion in 2003.

The proposals, which came as the war against Islamic State militants has stalled in western Anbar Province, are wide-ranging and include a new corruption inquiry and the elimination of what has been a hallmark of the American-imposed system: sectarian and party quotas in the appointment of top officials. Dramatically, Mr. Abadi also vowed to eliminate the three vice presidency positions, largely ceremonial jobs that come with expensive perks.

Those jobs are currently held by three figures who have dominated Iraqi politics since the United States toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime: the former prime minister NURI KAMAL AL-MALIKI, a Shiite; Ayad Allawi, a Shiite whose Sunni-dominated bloc won the most seats in national elections in 2010; and Osama al-Nujaifi, a prominent Sunni Arab leader. 

Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi of Iraq meeting with government ministers on Sunday. Mr. Abadi's cabinet immediately approved his reform plan. Credit Reuters

Article Ends

[Banking Reforms]
This next article about sums up the necessity to complete these banking reforms before any international rollout of currency reform. Can you now see the connection. Their words not mine !

Article Begins:

Zebari: any delay the reform process will reflect negatively on the credibility of Iraq in front of the international financial institutions.       

http://www.alliraqnews.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=12287

 
Finance Minister Hoshyar Zebari warned Monday that any delay in the reform process will reflect negatively on the credibility of Iraq in front of the international financial institutions.

According to a ministry statement received by the agency all of Iraq  a copy of it that Zebari "chaired with the Governor of the Central Bank, the meeting was attended by the President of the Board of Supreme Audit and Director of the Rafidain and Rasheed Bank and a number of the Ministry of Finance experts and Central Bank to consider the restructuring of the two banks mentioned through the banking system overall application and the possibility of increasing the capital of the two banks in order to enable the exercise of the overall banking operation, including commercial banking. "

said Zebari, during the meeting on "the importance of the financial and banking system reform so that it is consistent with the International Standards especially after the IRAQ GET A CREDIT RATING AND BECAME PART OF THE MOVEMENT OF GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS, and any delay in the reform process WILL REFLECT NEGATIVELY ON THE CREDIBILITY OF IRAQ IN FRONT OF THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS "

Article Ends

[Update: on Amnesty Law]

Many of you  readers have asked if I could explain in more detail just why the Amnesty law is so important in terms of holding up the revaluation process. So I will now address this concern.

As with most issues it is hard to separate them so I also must address a couple other issue interconnected with Amnesty.

The Amnesty law was rolled up under the reforms when Abadi took control of the government in 2014. It is one of the remaining controversial 6 reform laws.   

In the early years of USA occupation of Iraq, Nori al- Mailiki convinced the USA that many of his political rivals  were terrorists (some were legitimate terrorists) and so the US Army rounded them up and arrested them. They remain locked up today without a trial or due process according to Iraqi law.  G.W. Bush supported his first term as prime minister and later realized he has been lied to about these political prisoners. 

So in retribution, G.W. Bush mandated that these prisoners be released as part of a forgiveness/ release provisions. These are now placed in a new law they now call the Amnesty law. He also mandated the full implementation of this law prior to any currency reform completion. Iraq has consistently attempted to push a “watered” down version of this law just to satisfy the USA, however the USA demands a full Amnesty according to specific conditions.

Can you now see why Maliki has not moved ahead to implement this law during his 8 years as prime minister? Can you see also why the USA is standing firm on this issue? Do you really think the USA will support any RV with the full implementation of this law and all of its conditions?  Folks- this is all common sense when you know the truth about why this law was mandated in the first place.   

[Update:  on Maliki]

Okay so this long standing issue with Maliki is interconnected with the Amnesty. Seems you can’t do one without  the other ( I mean getting rid of Maliki and getting Amnesty implemented). We have been reading articles now for over a month on the demise of the former prime minister ori al-Maliki and his corruption and crimes against humanity.

In many of my past news letters I stated (and very firmly stated) that I know that the USA wants to use this would- be- dictator as an example to any future would-be dictators (pointing to Assad in Syria and Iran). Maliki and his corruptive goons would have to be neutralized, if not gone from Iraq, for any RV to happen. So we learned last May this too is mandated or no RV.

So yesterday out pops this article (finally). Below I have included the article. They are going to use him as a lesson for all politicians", noting that "al-Maliki is the first. They must clean up their government. This is almost so predictable now. We just have to wait to see it all play out. The nice part about it all is we are seeing it being played out now so we know some completion and end is in site.

Article Follows:

FEDERAL COURT ISSUED A DECISION TO ARREST AL-MALIKI     

Under the auspices of Iraqi lawyers .. Federal Court issued a decision to arrest al-Maliki
Date: Mon 08/10/2015 12:49

A number of Iraqi lawyers Federal Court demanded to issue a decision arrest warrant against former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in preparation for submission to trial on charges of corruption and waste of public money and causing the death of thousands of Aeraguibn.

The lawyer said Ahmed Kazem that "a group of Iraqi lawyers Anzmwa to campaign (# Hakmoh) launched by Iraqi youth to demand the trial of former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and all the corrupt officials in Maliki's government. "

And that "all those who support this campaign, he has to invest its experience and potential to sustain in order to be a lesson for all politicians", noting that "al-Maliki is the first because it head Corruption will be attached to him for trial and retribution all who follow him and backed leaders and corrupt politicians.

He said Kazem that "lawyers in the process of preparing a list of the charges against al-Maliki and submit a draft official accusation of the Federal Court to issue a decision arrest against him and brought to trial."

Article Ends

 
[Update: New Taxes, Customs & Tariffs Law]

I wanted to reinforce the stance that the new customs and tariff law IS STILL IN EFFECT however it is a new law and is being met with much resistance in some provinces as they try to find loopholes.  Simply put it is too expensive of a burden on the Iraqi economy without some form of currency reform and a significant increase in the value of their currency.

So even this kind of revenue generating idea is not going to work to assist Iraq get out of the economic crisis without an RV. 

Currently I have heard they are not “officially” putting the tariffs on hold but are also not fully enforcing them either in many of the provinces. 

[Update: Decentralization Effort]

In my last news letters I told you this effort was scheduled for completion on Aug 5th, many days ago. We read many articles Abadi was not going to back off on this effort. We also read many articles about eight of the ministries that were behind in this effort and how the provinces were not the hold up and it was the GOI.

So just lately we heard many of the ministries are being terminated and the ministers fired. Could this be connected? Do you think Abadi is getting tired of this laziness and lack of diligence. Do you remember 8 months ago when he said all ministers would be expected to perform or else face being released.

The big question still is - Did they complete the effort?

We still wait to hear the outcome and can assume no news is good news? 

Let’s see how this plays out over the next couple days since we know they are attempting to meet this Aug 14th timeframe for all the reforms, decentralization being one of them. If they are late by a couple weeks we don’t care as long as its not 3 months….lol….

I am sorry if I am repeating some of this news but it is important at this time to truly understand it since I believe we are very close to completion of many issues holding back the RV.

Many say that triggering the RV is totally in the hands of Iraq. Really? That’s not what I am hearing.

In fact I am hearing just the opposite. Again there is a disconnect and a misinterpretation of what some are hearing. They have been at this intel stuff long enough and so they should be able to recognize the error especially when they know just how bad Iraq really wants and needs this RV. But they don’t and continue to still spread their nonsense on how Iraq is in complete control.

Of course the USA wants you all to believe this nonsense too since it gets them off the hook and you no longer consider them the holdup or the villain. But this is simply not reality and they are just trying to change your  perception so you won’t vent at your government (and maybe try to expose these early illegal exchanges).

I can assure you the USA is still in full control of determining when this RV will happen.

One more point to prove it – Why would Abadi implement the Tariffs if he knew he needed an increase in the value of his currency prior to it? If he was in control why would he not have pulled the trigger on the RV?

Did he try to pressure the USA into the RV or did they need additional revenue so badly they were willing to try the tariffs and wish for the best? You be the judge.

What I am hearing it is fully in Iraqi hands but only to complete the requested reforms and needed laws to support them. So this is what they mean by this statement. The ultimate decision still lays with the USA and always will.

Many of these reforms are also assisting in fully implementing the Iraqi constitution and so we are also hearing the USA wants a full implementation of their constitution (due process of the law) which means Justice and Court reforms. This is interconnected with the Amnesty implementation too. It all goes together.

A level of security too is needed and if they don’t fully want the help of the USA in fighting ISIS (like lots of boots on the ground), they must then create for themselves the needed level of security  needed to support their kind of economy. I am not talking about a random occasional killing. I am talking about a level of security where an entire provincial government is being freed from ISIS control.

Oh – wait a second !- So what do you think can prevent this from happening again in the future – Could it be the implementation of the NATIONAL GUARD law (one of the controversial laws remaining). It’s all interconnected folks. Don’t you get it by now? 

We have seen how easy it has been for a prime minister to steal funds from Iraq, also the other ministers too. This too must all be cleaned up. Abadi is completing this nasty task now with these inter-governmental reforms.

Reforms, reforms and more reforms. We see them in the banking sector, security sector, economic sector, area of reconciliation, inter-governmental and international trade (tariffs and customs), etc. Soon they will have to also complete the CURRENCY reforms we have long been waiting for very soon. It’s all coming to an end shortly.

Be patient and give them time. Abadi has built up enough incredible confidence enough that they can now rid themselves of Maliki and his goons. Once he is gone they can move very quickly to where they need to go.   

Peace and Luv To Ya All, 
Mnt Goat