Violence In Iraq Could Throttle The US Economy. Here’s How

Violence In Iraq Could Throttle The US Economy. Here’s How




(Photo by ASAAD NIAZI/AFP via Getty Images)

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Micaela Burrow Reporter
August 30, 2022 7:40 PM ET  

• Iraq’s political situation is growing increasingly unstable after violent protests broke out this week, threatening Iraq’s oil fields
  
• Iraq is the world’s third largest oil producer, so disruptions in Iraqi oil supply could cause energy prices to skyrocket globally.
  
• “I think ‘evolving’ instability in [Iraq]… will inject greater, more twisted levels of uncertainty into the global economy as the world gets into the first ‘winter’ of Russia’s unacceptable invasion of Ukraine, becoming more than an added distraction point,” Heritage Institute research fellow Anthony Kim told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
  

Deepening political instability in Iraq may get worse, upending already tight global oil markets and pushing prices up at the pump for U.S. consumers, experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
Iraqi supporters of the nationalist cleric Muqtada al-Sadr stormed the cabinet headquarters, forcing the interim government to shut down and sparking violent clashes with opposing pro-Iran militias and Iraqi security forces Monday and Tuesday. Violence also reached the oil-rich areas of Iraq, which if intensified could disrupt production and send oil prices in the U.S. and elsewhere shooting up, experts in geopolitics and commodities told the DCNF.

“The second and third order effects that we’re going to see in terms of an energy shock is really significant,” Simone Ledeen, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East, told the DCNF.
An intensified security situation in Iraq could endanger up to one million barrels per day of Iraqi oil production, RBC commodities chief Helima Croft told CNBC Tuesday.

Iraq is the world’s third-largest oil producer and the second largest within the OPEC cartel, with most of its supply going to Asia and Europe, according to the Energy Information Agency. However, any decrease or uncertainty in Iraqi oil supply would send energy prices up, affecting every aspect of the economy as the U.S. may become more dependent on foreign oil.
“What’s unfolding in Iraq will more than likely add upward pressure in terms of price volatility and uncertainty,” Heritage Foundation research fellow Anthony Kim told the DCNF. “I think ‘evolving’ instability in [Iraq]… will inject greater, more twisted levels of uncertainty into the global economy as the world gets into the first ‘winter‘ of Russia’s unacceptable invasion of Ukraine, becoming more than an added distraction point,” he said. (RELATED: ‘Swimming In Cash’: Russia’s Oil Industry Is Booming Despite Sanctions)

Clashes also emerged in the oil-rich Basra region, with Sadrists burning tires and crowding the streets. Protesters converged around the gates of oil fields and refineries in the southern Iraqi province, but there were no reports of the protesters breaching the installations and disrupting production, according to Reuters.
“Any sign of a supply disruption there would be a concern, particularly given the supply-side issues the world is facing at the moment,” Nader Itayim, Mideast Gulf editor at Argus, explained to the DCNF. “The market is already tight, so any serious outage in Iraq would likely put upward pressure on prices.”

U.S. oil companies, boosted by increased exports amid surging global demand, boasted record profits, but prices continue to increase. While U.S. President Joe Biden promised to help Europe reduce its reliance on Russian energy, the U.S. is undergoing its own crisis as energy costs continue to skyrocket.

Oil prices trended upward on Monday amid reports of unrest, coming back down Tuesday after state-owned marketer SOMO confirmed that oil exports remained online, according to Reuters. SOMO also said it could redirect future supply to Europe as winter looms and Russia squeezes supply to Europe in response to sanctions levied against it for invading Ukraine, which could free up domestic supply for the U.S.

The let-up in protests would further reduce the risk of disruption to oil supply, Itayim said.

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Iraq Heads Towards Chaos As Sadr Supporters Revolt
Posted on August 29, 2022 Author Robert InlakeshComment(0)



Popular Shia cleric, Moqtada al-Sadr, declared on Monday that he had withdrawn from political life completely, closing down most of his party’s offices. Soon after Sadr supporters stormed Iraqi government buildings and fears have grown of a large-scale violent conflict erupting.
The Joint Operations Command of the Iraqi security forces announced a 15:30 curfew in Baghdad this Monday, in response to the storming of a number of Iraqi Government buildings in the Iraqi Capital’s ‘green zone’ area. Thousands of supporters of Shia cleric, Moqtada al-Sadr, stormed the green zone, pulling down cement beams that barricade the area and entering the buildings, such as Iraq’s Republican Palace, with little-to-no resistance from Iraqi forces.
The curfew that was imposed came in response to fears of violence in the streets of Baghdad, that could lead to a further escalation of tensions that have gone on for almost a year. The recent tensions stem from Iraq’s election results in October of 2021, when Moqtada al-Sadr’s party managed to secure the largest amount of seats in the Iraqi parliament. Despite only 36% of eligible voters bothering to even show up, the powerful Shia cleric, Sadr, then had the ability to claim he represented a majority group in Iraq. On the contrary, the parties aligned with the PMU, despite not winning anywhere near the number of seats in parliament, beat the Sadrists in the popular vote.
In June, all of Moqtada al-Sadr’s party members, 73 MP’s in total, withdrew from the parliament after being unable to form a government, elect a Prime Minister, and President. The reason why the Sadrists were unable to form a government was clear, they refused to ally with any of the parties belonging to the pro-Iran armed groups that form the Popular Mobilisation Units (PMU). Moqtada al-Sadr’s intentions were clear when he pulled this stunt in June, he was attempting to pressure the Iraqi parliament and governing forces to bend to his demands. In July, Sadr’s men, a large portion of whom are allegedly on a direct payroll, stormed the Iraqi parliament on a number of occasions, protesting the Iraqi parliament’s nomination of a candidate for Prime Minister that Sadr did not approve of.
Western media attempted to present Moqtada al-Sadr’s loyalists as representing a popular anger with Iraq’s corrupt elites and failed political system, but the reality is quite the opposite. Sadr, despite trying to paint himself as a reformed Iraqi nationalist, is attempting to assert his dominance and gain control of Iraq through man power and not democratic means. He routinely speaks about the corruption of the political elite and how foreign powers like Iran and the US must have less influence in the country. Sadr even attempts to raise the banner of democracy and respecting Iraq’s institutions, yet his actions say the complete opposite.
Despite the curfew that was put in place this Monday, first applied only in Baghdad and later in all the Iraqi Governorates, the Sadr loyalists continued to demonstrate inside the green zone and only left after being instructed to do so. Whilst the takeover of Iraq’s Government buildings was ongoing, Al-Mayadeen-TV reported that fake websites were created calling for violent action to be taken — links to the websites were later shared by bots on social media. The Al-Mayadeen reports stated that the websites were created outside of Iraq, without stating any specific countries of origin. Fake reports were also spread, through the reporting of a number of Arab speaking news networks,  about the Iraqi security forces shutting down religious shrines and attempts to incite further tensions.
It has been apparent from before the Iraqi elections even took place, last year, that the think-tanks in Washington have been favoring Moqtada al-Sadr to take over Iraq. The reasons they publicly give are that he is the most pragmatic figure and best option for Iraq, “a vote for change”, as some put it. The reality, however, is that Moqtada al-Sadr is running on an anti-Iran platform. For the United States Government, they understand that there is not going to be a complete US lapdog in power Iraq, and they realize that there is no justification for a heavier US presence on the ground. This being the case, the best option available is someone that isn’t going to directly work on behalf of the US necessarily, but will do their bidding by proxy. The top priority for Washington is simple, curb Tehran’s influence in Iraq.
Sadr, whilst he is certainly not pro-Washington, is anti-Iran and vows to stop the influence of Tehran inside Iraq. This is why the US likes Moqtada al-Sadr, he is a popular cleric with a massive support base, who controls a powerful militia force. Sadr once used his militia men to fight the US occupation forces, in addition to domestic foes. However, times have changed, and there’s nothing the US Government loves more than a strongman who knows how to get the job done.
Whilst the evidence for a US role in the current political strife in Iraq is certainly not ironclad, what can be said is that it favors the US. Even if Iraq descends into civil war, this is a good thing for the Biden administration — this means more troubles for Iran. The official position of the State Department on this issue, is that they favor dialogue to end the political quarrels and that they have not given an evacuation order, as some reports indicated, which had shown videos of helicopters transporting US citizens out of the American embassy in Baghdad.
As of now the situation remains tense, with most Iraqis fearing that armed clashes between Sadr-loyalists and pro-Iranian groups could erupt at any moment. Since the illegal invasion of 2003, the US Government has been telling the world that its mission has been to make Iraq a better place to live in for its citizens, it’s now 2022 and the “democracy” that the US created there is on the verge of causing a civil war. Not only this, but the leading Western think-tank’s and corporate news outlets seem to be in favor of a warlord, turned Iranian protege, turned anti-Iran political leader, who wants to ignore the democratic institutions of his own country in the name of “democracy”.

https://www.thelastamericanvagabond.com/iraq-heads-towards-chaos-as-sadr-supporters-revolt/

Protesters Storm Palace After Powerful Iraqi Cleric Quits, Multiple Deaths Reported


REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani

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Micaela Burrow Reporter
August 29, 2022 12:45 PM ET
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Protesters stormed the palace in Baghdad after populist leader Muqtada al-Sadr announced his resignation from politics, sparking mass demonstrations that have resulted in at least two casualties, according to Reuters and state media.
The powerful Shiite cleric said Monday that inability to form a coalition government with pro-Iran factions compelled him to permanently withdraw from politics and close his offices, state-run Iraqi News Agency reported. Interim Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi indefinitely suspended cabinet meetings after the demonstrators occupied the palace, as Iraqi security forces killed two protesters and wounded at least 19 others in clashes between Sadr’s supporters and Iran-backed groups around Iraq’s Green Zone, Reuters reported.

Kadhimi said the demonstrations “point to the seriousness of the consequences of the continuing and accumulating political differences” in a statement Monday. “The persistence of the political dispute to the point where it is damaging all state institutions does not serve the Iraqi people, their aspirations, their future, and their territorial integrity,” he added.
Hundreds of demonstrators rushed the palace, using ropes to pull down cement barriers and opening the palace gates, The Associated Press reported. Sadr’s supporters in southern Shiite-majority provinces, including Basra and Missan, blocked roads and burned tires.

Sadr’s backers have staged a sit-in for several weeks in the Green Zone, a fortified area of Baghdad housing government buildings, including the main cabinet headquarters, according to Reuters.
Iraqi joint operations forces claimed they were “committed the highest levels of restraint and brotherly dealings to prevent clashes or Iraqi bloodshed” while attempting to quell the protests. Riot police used brute force, tear gas and gunfire to repel protesters from the palace, resulting in at least one dead and several wounded, according to the AP.

The Iraqi security forces announced a curfew beginning at 7 p.m. local time and in force indefinitely, Reuters reported.

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• 30 Dead In Iraq After Moqtada al-Sadr’s Militia Opens Fire On Security Forces
  

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30 Dead In Iraq After Moqtada al-Sadr’s Militia Opens Fire On Security Forces

Posted on August 31, 2022 Author Robert InlakeshComment(0)

The Iraqi Capital, Baghdad, was once again turned into a war zone this Monday night, after militia groups aligned with popular Shia cleric, Moqtada al-Sadr, opened fire on Iraqi security forces and attacked rival group offices.
This Monday, supporters of Moqtada al-Sadr, took over the Baghdad ‘green zone’ area, occupying government buildings and chanting in favor of their leader, after Sadr had announced his official resignation from politics. The popular Shia cleric has announced his withdrawal from political life various times before, however, at this time his supporters are attempting to undo the current Iraqi parliament.
The Sadrist demonstrators refused to back down when eventually confronted by Iraqi Security forces during the day, on Monday. In addition to this, various threats of violence were spread on social media, including incitement which was orchestrated online from foreign countries, according to al-Mayadeen reports. The conditions on the ground led to the Joint Operations Command, of the Iraqi security forces, deciding to impose a curfew in Baghdad from 3:30PM that day. The Sadr supporters, however, refused to leave after the time that the curfew went into effect, only deciding to head home hours later.
A curfew was later imposed all throughout the country, as fears continued to grow over violent escalation. That escalation unfortunately unfolded, as militiamen belonging to the pro-Sadr “Saraya al-Salam” armed group headed towards the green zone area. In videos captured and posted on social media, Moqtada al-Sadr loyalists were recorded chanting in favor of the men of “Jaysh al-Mehdi”, the name formerly given to the militia that fought for Sadr against the US occupation forces in Iraq.
Reports indicated that Saraya al-Salam and other pro-Sadr militias fired at least four missiles into the green zone area, in Baghdad, entering into direct confrontations with Iraqi security forces. The violence was not limited to the green zone, however, it spread throughout Baghdad, Basra, and beyond. Sadr loyalists burned down the offices belonging to pro-Iranian militia groups and political parties, burned posters of PMU leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, and pulled down banners depicting Iranian General, Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in an illegal US airstrike in 2020.
At least 30 people were killed and over 700 were injured, including 110 Iraqi security service-members, during the armed clashes that took place. Surprisingly, despite it being the loyalists of Moqtada al-Sadr who were responsible for the violence, Sadr himself was quick to distance himself from his own militiamen and declared a hunger strike “until the violence ends”. Reports emerged of attacks from Daesh terrorists against pro-Iranian armed groups, located in the town of Amirli, also took place.
The following day, Moqtada al-Sadr delivered a fiery speech in which he threatened to disown his own supporters if they did not stop their protests and called for an end to the violence. Sadr apologized and expressed his embarrassment during his speech, confirming that none of the pro-Iranian groups belonging to the Popular Mobilisation Units (PMU) had launched any offensive actions. The Sadrist demonstrators followed the orders of their leader, leaving their protest tents that had been set up and Iraq then announced that its nationwide curfew had been dropped.
The line that Moqtada al-Sadr has maintained, of distancing himself from his own militiamen, condemning violence, and calling for dialogue in order to fulfill his own demands, is very likely deceptive. Sadr is known for flip-flopping on different issues and claiming that he won’t ever return to politics, but returns each time with greater political capital. The reason he announced his withdrawal from politics altogether, was due to the failure of the Iraqi parliament to comply with his demand to dissolve it within a 72-hour deadline, which he gave last Friday.
The Sadrist bloc in parliament held the largest number of seats in Iraqi parliament, 73, after the latest election in Iraq, last October. However, in June, all of his party’s MP’s decided to withdraw from parliament and in July Sadr’s supporters stormed the parliament in opposition of the Iraqi parliaments nomination of a pro-Iranian politician for post of Iraqi Prime Minister.
It is clear that Moqtada al-Sadr has been taking all the necessary steps in order to have his demands heard and listened to. Sadr’s ability to block the election of a Prime Minister, the formation of a government, and to pressure the parliament to dissolve, clearly shows his power in Iraq. In the case of the most recent violence, it is very likely that through utilizing his militia forces, he has sent a warning to the Iraqi establishment, and if he continues to be ignored, could send his men back out to escalate into a fully-blown civil war.
Sadr, who paints himself as a reformed Iraqi nationalist, has been the favorite of Washington’s think tanks, since last October’s elections. The US Government sees him as the best option to combat Iranian influence inside Iraq, which he and his supporters have vowed to rid the country from. At this moment, not every detail is clear about what has just unfolded, but on the surface, it would seem that Moqtada al-Sadr has just asserted himself strategically and chosen to pursue the path of dialogue with now having given his rivals a taste of what is to come if they don’t listen. All of this favors the position of Washington, which seeks a means of pressuring Iran and eliminating its influence in Iraq where it is possible.

https://www.thelastamericanvagabond.com/30-dead-iraq-after-moqtada-al-sadrs-militia-opens-fire-on-security-forces/