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Kaperoni believes that Floating the dinar or moving off the peg can happen at any time
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Kaperoni believes that Floating the dinar or moving off the peg can happen at any time
Kaperoni
[do you still think they will be able to move to a market economy sometime this year, if not by mid-year, as stipulated by the IMF? Can they do the "dirty exit" thing, or do you think they can't risk that until they get more laws in place...?]
Floating the dinar or moving off the peg can happen at any time.
That is a function of monetary policy managed by the CBI. Moving to IMF Article VIII is a different issue, and requires compliance and acceptance by the IMF.
This move is seen to be the most important since it would encourage a more open banking system with the world.
Seems unlikely that they are anywhere close to that happening though with the spread (official rate/market rate) now over 6%.
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Article: "Zebari: a plan to freeze oil production is acceptable for Iraq" Well, since they cannot even make payroll now I find it hard to even think they are going to freeze production. In fact, we have been reading about how they are working to increase production
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...I can only comment on what Dr. Bakri stated in my interview, where he felt that the CBI would delete (at least some) zeros prior to Article VIII. That implied to me that they will try and raise the value dinar before they get into Article VIII.
Some have stated it may be more on par with the dollar before that happens. Hard to tell.
This theory does make sense because many feel the dinar is undervalued.
And if so, it makes sense then to raise it via floating it before Article VIII (and possibly Forex) to get the dinar to a price with reduced speculation.
Parliament has not been in session for about a week, with no new dates scheduled yet.
It is frustrating for sure that they just seem to not care. Would be nice to see them get in a session and begin to pass some of these laws (like the banking insurance law) that are needed to encourage investment.
This is exactly why it is impossible to put a time frame on these reforms, because there seems to be no sense of urgency. So we wait. Sadr seems to be our only ally now which is pretty scary.
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Re: Kaperoni believes that Floating the dinar or moving off the peg can happen at any time
No, it just requires compliance with the rules. That is all Article VIII is, a set of rules covering certain special and temporary situations.Moving to IMF Article VIII is a different issue, and requires compliance and acceptance by the IMF.
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