More Bad News for Dinarians (7/29/2014)

The Dinar's Dismal Future: Sell Now (Forbes)

It’s not looking good for the Iraqi dinar revaluation.
For those just tuning in, millions of Iraqi dinars have been sold to “investors” hoping to make a windfall when, and if, the currency is revalued in their favor. No one knows how many people have been sold this tale of overnight wealth since the dealers for these notes are not regulated.

As you’ve probably noted from the headlines, Iraq is in bad shape. Sunni insurgents have taken most of the northwestern part of the country; the central government and army are weak, abusive and indecisive; and the Kurds are asserting their virtual autonomy in the Northeast.

Iraq is basically enmeshed in a brutal civil war without any cohesive social fabric to pull it back together. Except for some military advisers, the U.S. and Western powers are staying out of the country. Iraq could very well break apart into three separate regions dominated by Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds. No one is sure what’s going to happen next.

Where does that leave the untold thousands holding dinars who are awaiting their payday? The endgame may be near for this currency, which probably won’t survive if the country breaks up.
Professor Cory Bunting, director of the Capital Markets Center at Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond, Virginia, is not optimistic. Prof. Bunting has been watching the situation and offered me this blunt advice:

“In my opinion, the dinar will never ‘revalue’ to the rate the pro-dinar pundits lead people to believe. In fact, it remains to be seen if the country of Iraq, as we know it today, will even exist in its present form in 10 years time. Many people who currently hold dinars probably view them as a ‘sunk cost’ or a call option on a dream.

If I held dinar, I would sell them back to a currency dealer. You will likely lose about 20% as the bid price ( to sell to dealers) is far below what the price is to buy from them.

As an investor, I would just take the 20% loss and move on rather than sit on a stack of paper that will likely be worth nothing, or nearly nothing, in ten years time. That said, taking losses is hard for most people and hope springs eternal that wealth is just around the corner.”

What, sell a pile of potentially lucrative lottery tickets? Who in their right mind would want to do that?

The reason it’s so difficult to take a loss in dinar is that 1) they were oversold by currency dealers, 2) people believed the “story” that the dinar would be revalued upward, 3) they didn’t cost much to begin with and 4) losses are felt twice as intensely as gains. No one likes to take a loss and move again, although it’s the rational thing to do.

Although no regulator knows how many investors hold the dinar, Prof. Bunting estimates “that there are around 40 trillion Dinar in circulation and only about 5 trillion actually reside in Iraq so the rest in held by dinar speculators around the world. I guess you could say that the Dinar is Iraq’s largest export product).”

In the interim, heed this advice about currency dealers in general:
“The Iraqi dinar scheme has been surprisingly long-lived, giving federal and state regulators and nonprofit consumer groups time to issue warnings about the dinar and other foreign currency investment opportunities. Take them seriously
Read the prospectus or offering document. You should receive a written statement that provides all relevant information about the investment and the company selling it, including the company’s history, operations, financial conditions, and key personnel. No prospectus? Don’t invest.
If I buy the investment, then what? Who is going to buy the dinars you have in a drawer in your house? While there are no guarantees in the return of, say, a mutual fund that invests in stocks, you can at least sell it the day after you bought it.”
Even though I’ve been warning about dinar buying for years, I have no idea what the Iraq Central Bank will do with this currency. It may very well revalue it in the favor of those who hold it. But it has to go through a lot of anguish and bloodshed before that happens.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnwasik/2014/07/28/the-dinars-dismal-future-sell-now/



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Iraq is already splitting into three states (USA Today)

Ever since U.S. forces invaded Iraq and toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003, the U.S. government has worried that Iraq would splinter into three states — each representing the feuding religious and ethnic factions the dictator held together through his iron rule.
It may no longer be necessary to worry that Iraq will break apart. In many ways, it already has.
The radical Islamic State that seized a swath of western and central Iraq last month effectively left the nation in three pieces, government officials and analysts say.
The United States worries that a fractured Iraq could lead to a failed state, allowing the radical Islamists to establish a stronghold from which they can export terrorism to other parts of the region and world.
Ryan Crocker, who served as U.S. ambassador to Iraq from 2007 to 2009, described the divisions as "Shiastan," "Jihadistan" and Kurdistan. The references are to the majority Shiite Muslims, who run the national government in Baghdad; the insurgent Sunni Muslim jihadists who make up the Islamic State; and the ethnic Kurds, who have long presided over an oil-rich, semiautonomous enclave in the north
"In a sense, it's apocalypse now," Crocker said.

"Iraq is not one Iraq anymore," Fuad Hussein, chief of staff to Kurdistan Regional Government President Massoud Barzani, said at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy during a recent U.S. visit.

The challenge for Washington is determining whether — and how — the country can be pieced back together. The Obama administration says Iraq must stay united if it is to take back the country from the radical Islamists.

Ironically, Joe Biden had argued as a U.S. senator in 2006, when Iraq was in the throes of sectarian violence, that the country be divided into three autonomous regions with a weak central government . His idea never gained traction, and the administration in which he serves as vice president argues the opposite view.

"The strongest single blunt to that threat (division) would be a strong capable federal government in Iraq that is actually able to exert control and influence to push back on that threat," Elissa Slotkin, a top Pentagon official, testified to Congress recently.

Politicians in Baghdad are haggling over formation of a unity government that can fulfill the mission outlined by Slotkin. By custom, the top three jobs are parceled out to the three factions.
Iraqi President Fouad Massoum attends a news conference during the fifth session of the Iraqi Parliament in Baghdad on July 24.(Photo: Ali Abbas, epa)

Last week, Kurdish politician Fouad Massoum was named the new president of Iraq by Parliament. His selection followed lawmakers' election of a Sunni, Salim al-Jabouri, as speaker of Parliament.
Lawmakers have a long way to go before creating a broad government that would lessen tensions among the Kurds, Sunnis and Shiites. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shiite, has been widely criticized within his country and the USA for limiting Sunni participation in his government and empowering Shiite militias that have targeted Sunnis during his eight-year rule. Al-Maliki is fighting to stay in office for a new four-year term.

One key to holding Iraq together is convincing the Kurds, who have long sought an independent state, to remain part of the central government. The Obama administration is trying to convince Kurdish leaders to remain part of Iraq.

"Without the Kurds, you're going to have a struggle with all Sunni Arabs against an Iranian-backed Shiite rump state," said James Jeffrey, a former U.S. ambassador to Iraq.

The Kurds have seized on the offensive by the radical Sunnis to further assert their independence. Kurdish forces have occupied territory abandoned by Iraq's army, attempted to sell oil without Baghdad's approval and announced plans for a referendum on independence.

"Division is the only solution, provided that this division should be consensual," said Barzo Ibrahim, a civil engineer in Irbil, in Kurdistan. "This is the most difficult part of the task."

The Kurds have the best chance of survival should they break away from Iraq's central government. They have created an oasis of political stability in the north, fueled by their own oil reserves and protected by one of the most disciplined fighting forces in the region, the peshmerga.

The Kurds have used the crisis to expand their control over oil-rich Kirkuk in the north by taking over positions from Iraq's army when it retreated in the face of attacks from Islamic militants. It's not clear whether the Kurds will withdraw should the crisis subside.

"They are making the most of the current tactical situation," said Mark Kimmit, a retired Army brigadier general and former State Department official with extensive experience in Iraq.

"They achieved on the ground what they were unable to achieve politically, by moving into positions abandoned by the Iraqi security forces," he said.
The Kawergosk Refinery in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq.(Photo: Safin Hamed, AFP/Getty Images)

The Kurdish regional government has begun pumping oil from the Kirkuk field into its own network, so it can sell it independently through its pipeline into Turkey, according to the Iraq Oil Report, which covers the industry. Baghdad considers the move illegal.

The Kurds have said Iraq's central government hasn't fulfilled its commitment to support the regional government's budget, leaving the government with no choice but to sell its own oil.

Baghdad still has control over the bulk of Iraq's oil wealth. The Kurdish region produces about 220,000 barrels per day, compared with about 2.6 million in the Shiite south.

The Sunnis, whose power center is in western Iraq, have little in the way of resources to fall back on. Their anger against al-Maliki's Shiite-dominated government has driven many to support the Islamic State.

While the government's forces are in disarray, al-Maliki has turned again to Shiite militias to help provide security, further heightening sectarian tensions.

Iraq has long had sectarian clashes and divisions. The Sunni minority held power for centuries until the United States ousted Saddam, a Sunni. Iraq's mostly Sunni Baath Party, which ruled Iraq for decades, ruthlessly suppressed Shiites and Kurds.

Some Iraqis, such as Omar Mohammed, a dentist in Diyala in eastern Iraq, see a splintered Iraq as the only solution after so many episodes of sectarian bloodshed.

"I would accept any solution to stop the bloodshed," he said, "even if it was a confederation or division."

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/07/28/iraq-divided-into-three-states/13165519/?utm_source=feedblitz&utm_medium=FeedBlitzRss&utm_campaign=usatoday-newstopstories

Sam I Am, the articles you quote are from 2014.  5 years ago. They were embroiled in war with ISIS. They are now Article 8 compliant. Let’s see what happens in the next 30-45 days.

What you just stated is the equivalent of me going back to 2014 and speculating on the presidential candidates for 2016. Same type of analogy.

Why would the IMF, United Nations and the Department of Treasury allow Iraq to successfully move from 3 years of Article 14 oversight and conclude the oversight plus move them to Article 8?  Interesting turn of events. Perhaps because they have the entire worlds support to go international.

Perhaps you can enlighten us. What does the IMF regulations stipulate about moving to Article 8 mean?  I can copy and paste if you like.

Suas if you'll check the category you'll see that it's for dinar related topics from years ago.  It used to be "5 Years Ago in Dinarland", and this post was from 5 years ago.  Having said that, the improved conditions in Iraq haven't led to any increase in the IQD's value because it doesn't work that way.  The value is much more likely to go down than up as their economy grows.

Thanks for clarifying Sam. But had you placed a header that said, “ From a long time ago” versus the one you used, there would not have been any confusion. But I digress. While I completely disagree with your statement about the dinar, you have always made these type of comments. We will see in short order if your economic predictions are correct. I look forward to the press conference and subsequent announcement.

I do not want to interfere in your discussion, and I'm not an economist at all, but the thing to know is that currently Iraq is operating on the parallel market, and not yet on the free market for the value of the dinar, and we see that the United States wants Iraq back to the wto, and support by the United States, so for me a return to the WTO = a value, and they're waiting for the end of the formation of the government to do some things, and we are also waiting for the vote of the budget of 2020, which is the budget of the reconstruction, they sign, either with ISX with the NASDAQ for the first of October for their return on the stock market = also a value for the Iraqi dinar what else can you say, and the farther it could go is for the month of January according to me, and we are only at 5 months for the new year, so I'm ready to wait until the month of January to see the change, and to finish I'm not a gour or, but simply a news reader who follows the news about Iraq, and who shares his reading to the members of the forum, good evening to all !!!



Claud (Moose)

Well said Claud.  I could write a book on here but it falls on deaf ears. All you need to do is state facts. Verified facts. Research, verification and the incredible progress is all that matters.

Suasponte wrote:Well said Claud.  I could write a book on here but it falls on deaf ears. All you need to do is state facts. Verified facts. Research, verification and the incredible progress is all that matters.

Thank you and you're right for the research, I postulate a lot of news on the forum, and many people may believe that I exaggerate postulating a lot of news, but I put the truth of the country on the forum, and on my side I do not even take the time to read the gurus, for me it's a waste of energy, the ones who will tell us the truth is the UN, the World Bank, the IMF, the FMA, and the union Arab Banks, and finally to read the news on the government, it is they who will tell us the truth, and especially it is not the gurus who will tell us when will be made the change on the dinar, n let us not forget the situation in Iraq, mine clearance, remove the bodies under the rubble because of the war, to prepare the ground for investors, and demonstrate to investors that Iraq regains its security inside countries, they work a lot on that for the beginning of 2020, either for the reconstruction, of my removed I have a philosophy, when the construction goes, everything is going !!! Good evening to all !!!



Claud (Moose)





Parliamentary Finance: Budget 2020 will arrive on its legal date

 21/07/2019

WTO status doesn't mean squat for a currency's value. South Korea is in the WTO and their currency is worth about the same as the IQD. Vietnam is also in the WTO and it takes 11 dong to buy 1 dinar.

I believe it was stated some years ago from officials in the WTO that Iraq needed to get it currency closer to the dollar before acceptance into the WTO.  So yes, in this case it does mean something.  Just happen to keep some snippets but I do not think the links still work.

Kadhim said "the Committee called for reducing the difference between the U.S. dollar and the Iraqi dinar, and activating the role of the private sector, and the opening of world markets in the Iraq budget of customs tariffs on imported goods, which commensurate with the economic laws in force in the country."
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&ie=UTF-8&sl=ar&tl=en&u=http://www.aknews.com/ar/aknews/3&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.com

The net that “the World Trade Organization were previously wary of government plans to support the Iraqi dinar, and elevate it to a value of U.S. dollar and the high differential cash between them,” he said, adding that “Iraq has a good capacity to support the Iraqi dinar, which is qualified to be a member of organization that will support the trade in the country in a clear and consolidates the efforts of the government in the development of trade in the country. ”
http://www.iraqdirectory.com/DisplayNews.aspx?id=14191

Muskie wrote:I believe it was stated some years ago from officials in the WTO that Iraq needed to get it currency closer to the dollar before acceptance into the WTO.  So yes, in this case it does mean something.  Just happen to keep some snippets but I do not think the links still work.

Kadhim said "the Committee called for reducing the difference between the U.S. dollar and the Iraqi dinar, and activating the role of the private sector, and the opening of world markets in the Iraq budget of customs tariffs on imported goods, which commensurate with the economic laws in force in the country."
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&ie=UTF-8&sl=ar&tl=en&u=http://www.aknews.com/ar/aknews/3&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.com

The net that “the World Trade Organization were previously wary of government plans to support the Iraqi dinar, and elevate it to a value of U.S. dollar and the high differential cash between them,” he said, adding that “Iraq has a good capacity to support the Iraqi dinar, which is qualified to be a member of organization that will support the trade in the country in a clear and consolidates the efforts of the government in the development of trade in the country. ”
http://www.iraqdirectory.com/DisplayNews.aspx?id=14191

Dinar Vets has a copy of this one:



Adviser: Iraq needs to regulate the economy for membership of the World Trade

05/04/2010 12:14

Baghdad, 5 April (Akaniwz) - An official in the Iraqi Ministry of Finance, said on Monday that Iraq's acquisition of the membership of the World Trade needs to a new study of the economic system in the country.

The Economic Adviser in the Ministry of Finance Abdul Alim Kadhim told Kurdistan News (Akaniwz) that "the committee set up in Iraq had earlier about how the final results of Iraq's acquisition of the membership of the World Trade."

Kadhim said "the Committee called for reducing the difference between the U.S. dollar and the Iraqi dinar, and activating the role of the private sector, and the opening of world markets in the Iraq budget of customs tariffs on imported goods, which commensurate with the economic laws in force in the country."

Established team Iraqi annexation of Iraq to the WTO on December 13, December 2004, and presented a memorandum to join the organization in the September 16, September 2005, was adopted Iraq as an observer at January 24, 2007, and began the meetings of the first round of the Working Group in 2007 , followed by a second round of meetings in 2008, and the end of the third round of meetings in 2009.

The Kazem "FAO called upon Iraq to pay half his debts in order to allow him to membership of the WTO, which would improve the economic and commercial reality in the country."

Kazem stressed the need for the rise of the Iraqi economy in line with modern economic frameworks in place at the present time between the economically developed countries.

And formed the World Trade Organization TOW under the Convention on the Bretton Woods the end of 1944 in the United States, accompanied by the formation of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank under this Convention, and currently has approximately 150 countries, and has several functions aimed at removing distortions that plague the patterns of trade between the States and the establishment multilateral trading system more stable and more open and has the ability to predict, in addition to addressing the customs tariff and customs barriers, as well as addressing the problems of communication, building services, and to address matters pertaining to international investment, and resolve international trade disputes.

It aims also to expand the exchange of goods, through the reduction of tariffs customs and opening world markets to the movement of goods and services (excluding oil), and is organized under the United Nations system, and depend on the negotiating mechanisms based on business partnerships, not dependent on the vote in the decision-making, Thus, they succeed and sometimes fail at other times in their negotiations among its members, the organization tries to impose the liberalization of trade policies of member countries, and away from government intervention in the private sector.

http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?hl=en&ie=UTF-8&sl=ar&tl=en&u=http://www.aknews.com/ar/aknews/2/131912/&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.com&usg=ALkJrhiLubKF-ZLdvv3neqAhx1NjhXJqEg


And Dinar Speculator has a copy of the other:



sfcdiaz

11-05-2010, 05:56 AM


Iraq is approaching from the membership of the World Trade Organization

http://www.almowatennews.com/themes/portal/print_page.gif (javascript:rafiawin('popup.php?action=printnews&id=11286',500,600))http://www.almowatennews.com/themes/portal/send_f.gif (http://www.almowatennews.com/mail.php?action=sendpage)http://www.almowatennews.com/themes/portal/pdf.gif (http://www.almowatennews.com/pdf.php?id=11286)

http://www.almowatennews.com/filemanager.php?action=image&id=3424
Rn
The head of the Iraqi negotiating with the World Trade Organization, on Tuesday,
The committee reached the stages of the semi-final with the organization lead to Iraq's accession to it soon. The purity of net debt to Kurdistan News Agency (Rn) "The Committee reached the stages of the semi-final to get Iraq on the World Trade Organization membership, having been overcome most obstacles the two sides on matters of technical and purely commercial. "The net that" the obstacle that prevents access to Iraq's WTO membership is a file of Iraq's debt, which will hopefully be resolved soon, according to financial strategy, considering. "as he put it. The net that "the World Trade Organization were previously wary of government plans to support the Iraqi dinar, and elevate it to a value of U.S. dollar and the high differential cash between them," he said, adding that "Iraq has a good capacity to support the Iraqi dinar, which is qualified to be a member of organization that will support the trade in the country in a clear and consolidates the efforts of the government in the development of trade in the country and the team was Iraqi to join the World Trade Organization was established in December 13 / December 2004, and presented a memorandum to obtain membership of the Organization on 16 September 2005 , was the adoption of an observer in Iraq January 24, 2007, and began the first round of meetings of the Working Group in 2007, followed by a second round of meetings in 2008, then the third round the end of 2009.
Was the establishment of WTO TOW under the Convention on the Bretton Woods end of 1944 in the United States, was established the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank under the Convention itself, the organization has currently approximately 150 countries 
http://www.almowatennews.com/news_view_11286.html