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Post by Jayzze on Sun Jun 14, 2020 11:31 am

with all the gurs saying anyday now where is the proof? as of now most of the eco brains as well as the goi have given many ways to improve the eco situation but non of  them said raise the value. secondly until the un lets  iraq be chap 8 fully they cannot do squat. so can i see some real info and not gurus garbage btw evey time iraq needs money they go back to the currency auctiobs like they just started again
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Post by claud39 on Sun Jun 14, 2020 2:02 pm

Wednesday 22 April 2020


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In light of the current economic conditions accompanied by government failure in managing the file of monetary and financial policies in Iraq, the issue of devaluation has emerged, which is the devaluation of the Iraqi dinar vis-à-vis the US dollar and other currencies in a deliberate and deliberate manner, noting that this differs from the change in the exchange rate that is subject to For the supply and demand process in the currency markets.


I looked at a period of time before a study prepared by the Central Bank on this issue and after scrutiny in this matter and many discussions with experts and specialists and I believe that Iraq needs such economic solutions at the present time I thought that I clarify a realistic point of view may contribute to the crystallization of a specific opinion among the decision-makers in this The matter. 

In normal circumstances, this type of solution must be the last drug. Unfortunately, the country's economy is mismanaged, the absence of economic doctrine, the continued dependence on oil as a single source, and the exploitation of the economy as an electoral tool that has led to a near collapse in the economy whenever the price of oil decreases, and the failure of successive governments to support the product The industrial and agricultural patriotic pushed the specialists to resort to this kind of thinking.

I may agree with the study conducted by the Central Bank on many points that talk about the need to find other economic solutions other than reducing the value of the Iraqi dinar, but through experience and extrapolation of the Iraqi political situation I do not see on the horizon any ability of the owners of the solution and the contract to bring about a fundamental economic change because of the lack To truly understand the problem in Iraq and look at it from a single perspective, which may be factional, partisan, or personal.

 Therefore, my article will focus on discussing a paragraph devaluing the local currency vis-à-vis foreign currencies and responding to factors that affect or are related to the reduction process. For the purpose of taking note of the topic from all sides, the factors associated with this reduction must be discussed. Among the most important of these factors are: -
 

First: the balance of payments

I do not think that Iraq has a strong position in the balance of payments because Iraq’s exports are only 99 percent oil. If we raise or delete the value of the exported oil and we calculate the balance of payments without it, Iraq’s position will be very negative. 

It is worth noting that the Central Bank study on the percentage of surplus in the balance of payments, which was estimated at 5, is discussed. 75 percent of GDP for 2019, from the first two aspects in terms of whether to include the balance of oil exports or not and this balance changed by changing world oil prices. On the other hand, discussing a real and important question, which is how to calculate GDP in Iraq? What is the proportion of the value of oil exports in it? This question also applies to the proportion of foreign reserves available in Iraq, which is estimated at $ 70 billion, which represents 30 percent of GDP, according to the study. 

Here, the same problem lies, which is how to calculate the domestic product, and thus how to calculate the ratio of the adequacy of reserves in International Monetary Fund standards or other traditional measures, from It is clear that there is a deficit in the balance of payments because the balance of our payments depends on a very large percentage on oil and consequently the deficit, surplus or strong position depends on the global oil price, the amount of production and the amount of oil exported from Iraq, therefore the study that gave measures for 2019 Totally corrupted from the current year

 

Second: consumer prices

There may be an effect of the devaluation of the Iraqi dinar on consumer prices, but there are many positive aspects in this framework that can be benefited from and turn this challenge into a real opportunity to build an economic doctrine that fits the current political and social situation.

The rate of imports in Iraq is very large and the annual rate of amounts of hard currency that goes out of the country for the purpose of import is estimated at 48 billion dollars annually and in the case of reducing the price of the dinar, these imported materials will be more valuable in the Iraqi dinar than their current value in the local market, which will lead to a decrease in demand On them, and here is the stall of the Persians to refute all allegations that are expected to be high in life due to the devaluation of the Iraqi dinar, because this reduction must accompany a set of economic measures that are supportive of it, the most important of which is controlling the prices of the value of food and fuel. In the imported consumables, which are considered a factor in the ruin of the country's economy, it can be addressed and accept a certain increase in the prices of some unnecessary luxury items.

Therefore, there must be packages in the application of this reduction in order to encourage the national product, and we can give a simple example in this framework. If there is material that we import from neighboring countries, and the value of this material was only one dollar, i.e. its value is 1,200 Iraqi dinars at present, and the cost of producing it is from Local raw materials may cost the owner of the Iraqi factory 1300 Iraqi dinars, so the local product cannot compete with the imported product price due to the relatively high value of the dinar, but if the value of this material is one dollar in light of the exchange rate of 1500 Iraqi dinars and the value of the local product remains for the same article 1300 Iraqi dinars It will be a pain The domestic product is cheaper than the importer at the local value and thus this will encourage the owners of factories or farms to produce locally and run the workforce and run the macroeconomic cycle again so this reduction will have a significant role in supporting the local product, and it was noted that the central bank study spoke about the extent of Provides local products As an alternative, here we say that the egg and chicken base must end in Iraq, meaning do we work in a local industry in order to stop the import or stop the import in order to encourage national production? I think that the time has come to break this rule and for the state to put an end to imports in order to encourage production and because capital is coward and factory owners will not risk their money in order to provide material that does not have a market or has no consumer or competing foreign producer at a lower price and the state must be firm and legalize the import in order to Factory owners are able to produce and make the local product a competitor. It is worth noting that there will be a specific time period in which some products will be less available in the markets, but I believe that the national product will soon fill the void and we will start a new phase of the Iraqi economy.
 



Third: the level of inflation

Iraq currently does not suffer any rise in the level of basic inflation; therefore, the effect of reducing the currency devaluation level in the basic inflation level will be limited, meaning that if we reduce the currency by 30 percent, the prices of some luxury items will increase by 12 percent, and this price increase can be addressed by moving the economy even if we have to Increasing nominal salaries and moving the wheel of the economy by pumping cash into the street to move some industrial, agricultural and construction sectors.

 

Fourth: Increasing economic growth and trade

The study prepared by the Central Bank on the effect of currency devaluation on increasing trade growth showed that the relationship between devaluation and the deficit of the trade balance and stimulating the national economy is a conditional and specific relationship with factors including:

A- The extent of the national productive capacity, technologically, financially or humanly, to manufacture the same goods imported from abroad with similar quality and at competitive prices and to replace them with national products.

I think that Iraq can achieve a return from this reduction in this framework, which we mean by the growth and trade framework, because Iraq’s exports are limited to only crude oil, the devaluation of its currency may increase its exports from other materials that encourage the national product, whether industrial or agricultural, to increase its production, specifically some Exportable materials so that there will be new non-oil dollar revenues that can be used as a hard currency to increase the domestic product of the homeland.

 Also, this reduction will increase and strengthen the local Iraqi industries to be able to compensate for imports. Therefore, reducing the value of the Iraqi dinar will reduce a large percentage of the import. Revenues and maintains the hard currency coming from selling oil inside Iraq and these amounts are transferred instead of sending them out of the country through the currency auction to pump them into the local market to move the economy wheel, the banks that operate with the currency auction and those behind it may be affected.

 

Fifth: The effects of reduction in vulnerable social groups

It is also known that the number of people dependent on the government for their income from employees, retirees and those covered by the social protection network is around 6 million citizens. If we take the average of five individuals per family, 30 million citizens depend entirely on their income for government support, and this represents 75 percent of the Iraqi people. The negative effects of this reduction on the purchasing power of this group are limited, because the cuts will have measures to support the ration card and an increase in the minimum salary for the job grades and the welfare network grants.

At the same time, the state must act as a food merchant in the sense that it imports food or provides it from local production and stores it and pushes it to the market at any time there is a deliberate raise in prices or a specific monopoly process, and thus there will be food security for these vulnerable groups and the state also works To support fuel and medicine and direct the general budget to the ration and medicine, and sterilize water and infrastructure.

As for other luxury goods, there is no harm in accepting the cost of some non-essential materials, such as the mobile phone by 12 percent or the price of perfumes, for example, 12 percent. 
To the state.

On the other hand, I do not think that this reduction leads to an increase in government expenditures in general, but it may lead to an increase in the ration card expenditures, which do not represent 3 percent of the total general budget of the country. At the same time, you can benefit from the increase in revenues in the Iraqi dinar in other operating and investment expenses. By up to 25 percent, for example if the price of the dollar becomes 1500 Iraqi dinars.

At the same time, this reduction will have positive effects on the remittances of expatriate citizens from abroad for their families, so that the value of what they convert from hard currency into Iraq is greater than the present value and this leads to addressing the status of a particular class in front of the potential relative costly.
 



Sixth: The effect of the reduction in public debt

Iraq's foreign debt in foreign currency is about 23 billion dollars (except for pre-2003 debts of 41 billion dollars). The domestic debt in the dinar currency is around 40 trillion Iraqi dinars, including treasury transfers and bonds, and since 95 percent of the public budget depends on imports of oil that is sold In dollars, therefore, foreign debts will not be affected, either negatively or positively, by the devaluation of the Iraqi dinar, as they are receivables payable in US dollars.

As for the domestic or domestic debt, surely the reduction of the dinar’s rate will have a positive impact in the interest of the state, as the value of the local debt against the petroleum dollar. The state is limited to 7 billion dollars, and this indicates that the devaluation of the currency has a positive impact on public debt and thus strengthens the country’s economy without affecting the external debt by any negative impact and therefore there will be no negative impact on the Iraqi situation with the international community due to this reduction in Local currency value.
 



Seventh: The effect of reducing confidence in the national currency

I do not think (in my personal opinion) that this devaluation of the Iraqi dinar will affect the confidence of global markets and economies in the Iraqi local currency because this planned devaluation must accompany a set of economic decisions that are supportive of this devaluation and reduce its impact, whether on the internal or global economy in the Iraqi currency and the most important These reforms are to control the expected inflation, as we mentioned earlier through controlling food, fuel and medicine. 

The pressures of demand for the dollar may not escalate, but on the contrary, the local counterpart to the dollar unit may be more than before, so the process turns into a process. The dollar and try to keep Aa local currency, especially if we raised interest rates on deposits in local currency rates as a measure of the structural part of the decisions that must accompany the process of devaluation Vtkhvv thus the pressure on the dollar exchange rate.

The central bank study indicated the existence of the stability of the Iraqi dinar exchange rate for a number of years. In this context, I think that this stability is not real, but it is pressure on the dollar price by the country’s monetary policy, and therefore this stability as a result gave negative returns on the Iraqi economy, so stability can remain, but On another exchange rate that is less valuable than the current price.

If we note that the Lebanese experience has lasted decades for an exchange rate of 1500 that is stable but at a real price for the Lebanese pound while it is believed that the Iraqi dinar price on its current stability for the past years was not a real price but rather it was a price engineered by those responsible for the country’s monetary and financial policy, I mean Here is the central bank and the exchange rate is set in the annual general budget by the government and the finance committee in the Iraqi parliament.

 

Eighth: Monetary and Financial Policy

Before we get into the details of this factor, we must answer the following question: Do we expect Iraq to have a political ability to manage monetary and financial policy in the face of pressures that may result from reducing the price of the Iraqi dinar against the unit of the dollar? What determines this is the strength of the political administration in the country and the understanding of the political forces, the truth of the problem. The monetary policy tools represented in the interest rate, the discount rate, open market operations, etc. These can be controlled by coordination between the owner of the Iraqi money, which is the Ministry of Finance, and between the custodian of this money, which is the bank. 

The Central Council of Ministers shall be the judge and judge in the approximation of views between the owner and the governor. As for the fiscal policy, the government and parliament must collectively control expenditures and work to increase revenues (and we have talked a lot as others talked about how to increase revenues) in order to control m Suitable for the cash block in order to reduce the effects of inflation on the citizen.

We believe that the pessimistic view of financial and monetary management in Iraq must change. Otherwise, the situation will remain as it is. Yes, there is a big failure in managing these two files, but everything has an end and an end, and I think the time has come to end the failure of monetary and financial policy.

Ninth: The effect of reducing the dinar on the public budget

The general budget is revenue and expenditures, and since the main source of revenue for Iraq is oil sold in dollars, the reduction of the Iraqi dinar will certainly increase the revenue by the amount of the rate of the dinar, so when the price of one dollar is 1500 dinars instead of 1200 dinars, every billion dollars of oil revenue will be worth In the budget is one trillion and a half trillion dinars, compared to one trillion and two hundred billion dinars at the current exchange rate. This rise in revenues will have a clear and positive impact on the general budget. As for expenditures, I would like to refer here to the central bank’s report and discuss it again as He mentioned that the reduction will witness an increase in expenses due to the following points:

Government import of goods and services

This is beneficial because, as we said above, the government should be the first to reduce imports and depend on the local product, whatever the circumstances, and this is an opportunity to create a local economy and increase local production by increasing agricultural and industrial production and reducing imports.

-2 Paying the interest of the external debt

We have previously mentioned in this topic that external debt will not be affected by the dollar’s ​​devaluation, but internal debt will decrease in value relative to the petroleum dollar.

3 - Foreign investments and contributions

This does not represent a significant percentage, it is also in dollars, and we are our resources in dollars, so this is considered beneficial as well.

4- Paying the oil related investments

Everyone knows that paying the dues of oil companies is my eyes with oil, so there is no relationship with the dollar or the dinar.

5- The ration card

I do not agree with the report of the Central Bank that stated that most of the ration card materials are imported. The ration card that must be developed currently depends on four main materials, which are rice, flour, oil and sugar, three of which are flour, oil and sugar purchased locally. Reducing the value of the dinar will save money for the ration card when purchasing These materials and the only material that is imported is rice, and in the same logic that we spoke in this article, the oil dollar will not be affected because Iraq sells oil in dollars and imports rice in dollars. In sum, the reduction of the dinar will affect the ration card positively.

6 - Social protection salaries

In the event that the dinar is reduced, the government should increase the social protection salaries with the same expected inflation rate, which is 12 percent. In this way, we remove the potential inflation effect from the socially vulnerable groups.

 

Conclusions:

In the end, gradually reducing the value of the dinar will have positive effects on the economy of the country, from which it can be taken advantage of, and other negative things that must be taken in advance to avoid them so that the gross product will be positive for the national economy and to avoid the expected economic shock.

The positives are as follows:

1- Encouraging the local agricultural and industrial product.

2- Stir the wheel of the country's microeconomics.

3- Employment of labor and absorption of unemployment.

4- Increasing the revenues of the general budget and reducing import expenditures.

Naturally, this measure will have negative effects, so the government must take a series of measures in parallel with this reduction, as follows:

1 - Stopping the currency auction to maintain the hard currency inside the country and that the dollar and other foreign currencies are sold and traded directly in the currency markets or through the stock market, in order to get a real price of the Iraqi dinar against the American dollar, and that the guarantor of the prices is the value of the available reserve The Central Bank of Iraq has hard currency.




2- Setting an import platform, stopping some imports, controlling customs outlets, supporting the tax system, and exempting the local product from income tax for a period of two years.

3- Building the budget on a fixed oil price for the operational budget and moving to the investment budget, directing the budget to salaries, purchasing the ration and medicines, and sterilizing water and the educational process only.

4- Delaying the dues of oil companies or paying them in kind outside OPEC's share.

5- Selling oil coupons locally, at the prevailing price now, and buying them a year later at the prevailing price then.

6 - Increasing nominal salaries by 10 percent, reviewing high allocations to achieve social justice, and increasing salaries of the social protection network by 12 percent

7 - The state imports commercial foodstuffs into the market and injects it into the ration program in the event of high prices. And activating the role of economic security and entering the competent government agencies to control the cash rhythm in the currency market and the markets for the sale of foodstuffs.

8 - Supporting fuel for transport and factories and giving high relative importance to industries 
Food.

9 - Pumping a hard currency to the exchange markets to maintain the price level of the Iraqi dinar, preventing the price from slipping so that its decrease exceeds 30 percent within two years.

10 - The Ministry of Finance issues the e-dinar for the purpose of collecting government revenues and fees due and what distinguishes them from being non-negotiable in the market as cash and thus we have reduced corruption in this aspect as well as the state's knowledge of the value of those imports quickly to be issued by a government bank and not through companies Eligibility.




In conclusion, such a procedure requires a courageous decision by statesmen who are able to manage a stage through which the world in general and Iraq in particular, statesmen who lead society and manage state institutions literally without paying attention to partisan or factional or electoral interests, but rather put the interest of Iraq first.




Member of the Finance Committee















Claud (Moose)
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Post by claud39 on Sun Jun 14, 2020 2:44 pm

MIDEAST MONEY-Iraq dinar is short-term disappointment, long-term bet




OCTOBER 3, 2012 / 10:00 AM 




* Iraqis still prefer hard currencies for many transactions


* But some foreign speculators see long-term opportunity


* External, budget surpluses could eventually boost dinar


* For now, central bank wants to keep currency stable


* Any major appreciation unlikely before two or three years




By Aseel Kami




BAGHDAD, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Many Iraqis have lost faith in their dinar currency but to some foreign speculators, it promises big profits. 


The contrast underlines the uncertainties of investing in Iraq as the country recovers from years of war and economic sanctions.


The logic of the dinar bulls is simple. Iraq’s oil exports rose to 2.6 million barrels per day in September, their highest level in three decades; the country aims to hit 6 million bpd by 2017, which would put it close to Saudi Arabia’s current level.


Even if unstable politics, militant violence and bureaucratic inefficiency prevent that target from being hit, Iraq still seems to be on the threshold of an oil boom that will transform its finances.


Inflows of new oil revenue could give the country big external surpluses and push state finances deep into the black by late this decade - the classic recipe for a strong currency.


“As far as our investors are concerned, when they buy Iraqi dinars they do know it is a long-term investment. You know it takes time for a country to rebuild itself,” said Hassnain Ali Agha, president of Dinar Trade, a U.S. dealer of exotic currencies.


Because the dinar is not freely traded by banks outside Iraq, online dealers of banknotes such as Dinar Trade are the only way that most foreigners can invest in the currency. 


The Las Vegas-based company says it sells as much as hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of dinars daily, shipping dinar notes to thousands of customers in the United States and elsewhere.


Agha said that because of optimism about Iraq’s oil wealth, there had been solid demand for dinars since his company was founded in 2004, a year after the U.S. invasion which triggered years of political violence and economic turmoil.



Back in Baghdad, however, Iraqis themselves are not convinced. Many take what opportunities they have to change their dinars into hard currency, and conduct all but small day-to-day transactions in U.S. dollars.


“We have no trust in the Iraqi dinar - we feel afraid to save it. We trust the dollar more. The dollar does not go up and down, it is fixed,” said housewife and mother-of-two Eman Saadeldine.



[size=22]WILD SWINGS[/size]




The dinar has endured wild swings over the past three decades. In the 1980s, one dinar bought around $3, but economic sanctions imposed on Iraq around the time of the 1991 Gulf War sent the currency into decline and stoked inflation, which the government fuelled by printing money. By late 1995, $1 bought as much as 3,000 dinars.


After the 2003 invasion, the central bank intervened in the currency market to strengthen the dinar, using its supplies of dollars to manage the exchange rate.


But over the last several years, even as Iraq’s oil production has expanded, there has been none of the appreciation for which speculators have been hoping.


 The central bank now sells dollars in daily auctions at a fixed price of 1,166 dinars, a level barely changed since 2009.


In fact, the dinar has recently faced downward pressure as a result of the international economic sanctions imposed on neighbouring Iran and Syria. Iraqi traders rushed to buy dollars to sell on illicitly to residents and businesses in those countries, which are hungry for hard currency.


The dinar fell as low as 1,280 in the open market this year before Iraqi authorities reacted by allowing two state-run banks and some private lenders to sell dollars, helping push the exchange rate back to around 1,200 currently.


Another factor counting against the dinar is the fact that the largest banknote is only 25,000 dinars. This often makes the currency unattractive to use in an economy where the banking system is primitive and deals are often done in cash.


Saadeldine recalls paying in cash for a new house in 2009.


“If our money had been in dinars, it would have been impossible for us to carry it. It was in dollars and we carried it in a small suitcase,” she said.


The central bank has been considering plans to knock three zeros off the nominal value of banknotes to simplify financial transactions. 


This would not in itself increase the real value of the dinar, since prices would adjust in line with the redenomination, but economic experts say it could improve confidence in the dinar and thus boost its value eventually.



“It would increase trust in the dinar even though its value would not change,” said Baghdad-based economist Majid al-Souri. “Indirectly, when trust increases there will be appreciation.”


Earlier this year, however, the cabinet decided to suspend the technically complex redenomination plan until further notice, saying the economic climate was not suitable.


The biggest obstacle to dinar appreciation is the fact that for now at least, Iraqi authorities appear content with the exchange rate in its current range.


In a memorandum to the International Monetary Fund on economic and financial policies for 2011, written in March that year, the Iraqi government said it saw benefits in keeping the dinar stable.


“We believe that the policy of maintaining a stable exchange rate continues to be appropriate, as it provides a solid anchor for the public’s expectations in an otherwise uncertain environment and in an economy with a still very low level of financial intermediation,” it said.



[size=22]LONG TERM[/size]




In the long term, however, Iraq’s finances and economy may improve so dramatically that authorities feel comfortable allowing the dinar to appreciate under the pressure of flows of oil money into the country.


The IMF expects this year’s estimated budget surplus of just 0.2 percent of gross domestic product to balloon to 12.1 percent in 2017.


 The country’s balance of trade in goods and services, in deficit as recently as 2010, is projected over the next five years to shift to a large surplus of 11.3 percent of GDP.


Deputy central bank governor Mudher Kasim told Reuters that he expected redenomination of the dinar to go ahead in 2014 or later, by which time the amount of Iraqi currency in circulation would have increased significantly, making financial dealings in cash even harder.


In the long term, the central bank aims to make 1 dinar equal to $1 with a combination of redenomination and appreciation, although that will take over three years because of instability in the Middle East, Kasim said: “If not for the regional circumstances, we would proceed faster with that plan.”


Some analysts think the appreciation could go further. Kamal al-Basri, research director at the Iraqi Institute for Economic Reforms, an independent research body in Baghdad, said he expected the dinar to stay stable for the next three years, but that afterwards it might strengthen beyond parity against the dollar, including the effect of redenomination.


For that to happen, Iraqi politics will have to stabilise, skill and education levels rise and the economy diversify so that it is not so heavily dependent on oil exports, he said.


Speaking at the Baghdad currency exchange shop that he owns, Ahmed Abdul-Ridha said the dinar’s stability in the past three years was good, but it did not indicate the long-term trend.



“We wish the dinar’s value would go back to what it was like before, when it used to equal $3 in the 1970s and even in the 1980s,” he said.


I expect that day will come. Why not? What we are going through is an abnormal condition...We are an oil country.”




Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.



https://www.reuters.com/article/iraq-economy-dinar/mideast-money-iraq-dinar-is-short-term-disappointment-long-term-bet-idUSL5E8KT13720121003


https://www.reuters.com/article/iraq-economy-dinar/mideast-money-iraq-dinar-is-short-term-disappointment-long-term-bet-idUSL5E8KT13720121003


https://www.dinardaily.net/t89116-the-pragmatism-of-the-economic-landscape
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can anyone answer this Empty Re: can anyone answer this

Post by claud39 on Sun Jun 14, 2020 5:51 pm

The strategy of the Central Bank of Iraq (2016-2020) is a systematic application of banking reform




01/02/2020





can anyone answer this 18902




[size=15]The Central Bank of Iraq launched its strategy for the years 2016-2020 in conjunction with Iraq facing an economic and financial crisis because of the global oil price drop by more than 70% and a security crisis by occupying terrorism up to 40% of the country’s lands. At the time, an economic situation is cruel, complicated, and full of risks, confusion, confusion, and chaos at the level of internal and external economic and financial relations, which is important to us as specialists in economic and banking affairs.[/size]

[size=15]What are the new mechanisms and policies adopted by the Central Bank and The government and private banks and related parties regarding banking reform, according to the desired fundamental change approach to the national economy contained in the strategy, which constitutes the banking sector, the first and primary link in it.[/size]
[size=15]
The central bank strategy has defined and charted the path for banking reform according to the following main goals: 
[/size]
[size=16]
* Supporting and achieving financial stability
[/size]

[size=15]* Activating the role of the banking sector and financial institutions.[/size]
[size=15]
* Developing the organizational structure and organizational structure.
[/size]
[size=15]
* Development of human capital.
[/size]
[size=15]
* Activating and integrating internal and external relations.

 
Since these strategic goals have been defined as a period of five-year applications for the achievement of 23 sub-goals that I derive from are based on achieving financial stability, establishing the financial system, generalizing financial inclusion, and arriving at an institutional and structural reform of the banking sector in Iraq.
[/size]

[size=15]Through an analysis of the mechanisms and points of action to achieve the above goals, we note that the strategy set clear priorities for achieving reform and certainly that these priorities were diagnosed in light of the challenges facing the banking sector due to the stifling economic and financial crisis that Iraq suffers from for subjective and objective reasons which can be diagnosed as follows: -[/size]

[size=15]* Working to achieve the objectives of monetary policy, the most important of which are the stability of the exchange rate, the maintenance of the purchasing power of the Iraqi dinar, the inflation rate, and the building of a foreign monetary reserve.[/size]
[size=15]
* Work to restore the confidence of citizens and customers in the Iraqi banking sector.
[/size]

[size=15]
* Working to increase the ratio of savings to the cash mass in circulation in banks to the percentage of hoarding outside the banks, where the savings rate reached 23% and the percentage of compactness 77%. Increasing the percentage of financial inclusion and the delivery of banking services to the widest spread of geographical area and at the level of governorates, districts and districts, and increasing banking density in this direction.  
[/size]
[size=15]
* The necessity of completing the structural and technical pillars of proactive monitoring.
[/size]
[size=15]
* Establishing and activating the Deposit Guarantee Company and issuing a law to combat money laundering and the Islamic Banking Law and reviewing the legislative environment laws that regulate banking work.
[/size]
[size=15]
* Reviewing and evaluating the results of the banks ’business and reclassifying them by accredited international companies. And identify weak banks that need the intervention of the Central Bank of Iraq to rehabilitate, re-activate and protect them from bankruptcy.    
[/size]
[size=15]
* Claiming government support and assistance and compensation for the banks that were damaged in the provinces occupied by ISIS.
[/size]
[size=15]
* The need to strengthen and activate the initiative of the Central Bank in financing small and medium projects in a manner that contributes to stimulating the economic cycle and diversifying the resources of the general budget.
[/size]
[size=15]
* The necessity of reconsidering the organizational, technical, and administrative structure of the Central Bank of Iraq and government and private banks while confirming the principles of governance and determining the intervention of owners in the executive departments of banks.
[/size]

[size=15]Therefore, and for the purpose of applying the banking reform approach according to what was stated in the strategy according to an insight into the priorities and challenges that the Iraqi banking sector suffers from, the Central Bank made exceptional efforts during the previous years of the strategy and achieved many goals from the primary and subsidiary goals and tries to complete achieving all the goals in the year 2020, the last year of The strategy. Therefore, the executive and procedural steps and achievements made by the Central Bank during the period of implementing the goals of the strategy can be identified as follows: [/size]

[size=15]First: To study and analyze the reality experienced by governmental and private banks by reviewing, evaluating and classifying these banks based on their financial statements and the results of their business for the years (2016-2016) and adopting clear evaluation indicators based on the applicable banking law and international standards. And determining performance efficiency standards for banks in all areas of administrative, banking and credit banking work and identifying banks that continue to operate in the banking market and banks that are proposed to merge with other banks with the aim of increasing the efficiency of their work and changing their current departments with specialized and efficient departments and developing the work of good and discreet banks and helping them to continue to work within the sector The Iraqi banker is within its sound and healthy contexts, given that the banking sector is the basis for building the national economy.[/size]

[size=15]Second: The establishment of the Central Bank of Iraq full control and supervision of the movement of banking business in Iraq by focusing on pre-emptive electronic control, both office and field, in a programmed and planned manner, identifying violations, omissions, and transgressions of the banking executive departments and taking corrective measures. And download the legal responsibility of the Board of Directors and the Executive Management in a specific and clear manner.[/size]

[size=15]Third: Implementing the decision of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Iraq regarding the nominations for nominating members of the Board of Directors and leading employees of banks and focusing on professional competence, job integrity, personal and commercial reputation, and specialist expertise.[/size]
[size=15]
The application of the principles of governance and separation between owners and executive departments and not allowing them to interfere at all with the executive work. Owners can adopt specialized advisors in preparing banking plans and determine the efficiency of performance and follow up the implementation of what the Council plans in a manner commensurate with the concern for the funds of shareholders and customers.
[/size]

[size=15]Fourth: - Maintaining the Iraqi dinar exchange rate against foreign currencies. Building foreign exchange reserves exceeding $ 80 billion despite the challenges and crises that the country has gone through.[/size]

[size=15]Fifth: Establishing a deposit guarantee company and legal procedures are ongoing for the purpose of commencing them soon.[/size]

[size=15]Sixth: Activating and developing the initiative to encourage and finance small and medium-sized projects with economic and development feasibility and work continuously jointly with banks to increase the allocation for financing to the ceiling of one billion dinars for each development project and facilitate procedures, conditions and guarantees and achieve the economic and social goal.[/size]

[size=15]Seventh: Commitment and action in accordance with the controls issued by the Central Bank of Iraq with regard to combating money laundering and terrorist financing derived from the recommendations of the Financial Action Group (FATF). The liquidation of negative comments installed on Iraq, which contributed to the exit of Iraq from the gray area to the usual follow-up area, and building international banking relations with central banks and discreet correspondent banks.[/size]

[size=15]Eighth: Commitment to the regulatory instructions developed by the Central Bank in cooperation with the Metac Center of the International Fund and make them live up to international standards and the requirements of Basel III.[/size]

[size=15]Ninth: The shift in preparing the final and interim data to the International Accounting Standards (IFRS), which guarantees the transparency of data and its handling by all parties responsible for financial reporting.[/size]

[size=15]Tenth: Work to encourage and stimulate financial inclusion processes and try to increase its percentage in Iraq through the adoption of the salary settlement project, which is a step to reduce the use of cash and the direction of growth of the non-cash community.[/size]

[size=15]Eleven: Use all methods and procedures to be adopted to verify sources of funds and follow up on combating money laundering and terrorist financing in accordance with Law No. 39 of 2015.[/size]

[size=15]Twelve: Taking the necessary measures by adopting the standards and rules of compliance and risk management and adopting a precautionary policy that contributes to sensing risks and then taking the necessary means to deal with any risk.[/size]

[size=15]Thirteen: Adoption of the unified bank number (IBAN), which contributes to improving the level of banking services, clearing services, and settlement of payments locally and internationally.[/size]

[size=15]Fourteen: Commitment and action in accordance with the policies and procedures contained in the Governance Manual, which establishes transparency, disclosure and separation of management from ownership. [/size]

[size=15]Fifteen: Issuing the electronic payment system for funds No. 3 of 2014, establishing the National Payments Council, governance controls, institutional management of information and communication technology, regulations and legal instructions that govern the work of banks and electronic payment services providers.[/size]

[size=15]Sixteen: Establishing advanced and pursuit infrastructure for the latest global technologies, developing the bank's financial and banking systems, payment systems and advanced communication networks according to the latest technologies.[/size]
[size=15]
And the ownership of the central bank, banks and electronic payment companies for advanced payment systems as well as retail payment structures, and the National Divider was one of its most important parts.
[/size]

[size=15]Seventeen: Granting work licenses to many electronic payment services providers (card issuers, collectors, processing of mobile payment company operations, billing bidders and payment gateways through various channels).[/size]

[size=15]It is clear from the above achievements that the central bank and the banking sector have exceeded the challenges of the gap between Iraq and other countries because of the occupation and terrorism, and today it is taking a steady step to achieve the digital transformation in the financial and banking sector and achieve financial stability and the transition from the cash community to the cashless community.[/size]
[size=15]
Therefore, the central bank strategy has proven that it has established, planned and made advanced steps towards the systematic application of banking reform.
[/size]

[size=15]* Banking expert[/size]
claud39
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Post by claud39 on Sun Jun 14, 2020 6:32 pm

The World Bank expects the recovery of Iraq's economy and Yemen and growth in Egypt




04/04/2019





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can anyone answer this Rc_155435962274_23



The World Bank expected that the economy of Iraq and Yemen will witness a remarkable recovery in the coming period, expecting the growth of the Iraqi economy by 2.8 percent this year, especially after the formation of a new government in Baghdad, compared to 0.6 per cent in 2018, and that the agreement on the reconstruction of Iraq will be granted The country's economy is a strong boost. 





The bank also predicted a rapid rebound in Yemen if the violence, despite the continuing risks, continues, noting that the Saudi Vision 2030, which was included in the 2019 budget, will contribute significantly In diversifying the Saudi economy and reducing dependence on oil revenues in the public budget.

He predicted that GCC economic growth would reach 2.1 per cent in 2019, up 0.1 per cent from 2018. This was due to reforms by the GCC countries to reduce their reliance on oil revenues, as well as the huge volume of investment in infrastructure In preparation for hosting the Expo in 2020. " 

The sharp contraction of the Iranian economy, due to the decline in oil production in part from US sanctions, will negatively impact the growth rate, The real Iran has another year of Rook D, with a recording rate of contraction - 3.8 per cent this year. '

The report predicted that oil-importing countries will see growth of 4 per cent this year, compared with 3.8 per cent in 2018. This was due to the return of tourism, especially to Egypt and Tunisia, which helped to reduce the trade deficit of these countries. 

In its report, the World Bank said it expected Egypt to grow by 5.5 percent this year, the largest since 2008, making it one of the best performers among oil importers in the region. The report attributed the reason for the rise in natural gas production, the recovery of tourism and the increase in government investment spending. In addition, the reduction of subsidies several times, the increase in VAT revenues and income taxes, led to the reduction of the budget deficit in Egypt during the past two years.

The report warned of the economic challenges facing Lebanon due to debt burdens, which account for about a third of total public spending. Bank experts expect Lebanon's debt to be around 151 percent of GDP this year. Accompanied by a rise in the overall budget deficit to 12.4 per cent of GDP during the current year, compared with 11.5 per cent in 2018. 

World Bank expects Yemeni economy to recover

The report pointed out that the announcement of the formation of the new government in Beirut may lead to strengthening the morale of the market, especially with expectations of a new reform package of public finance soon, adding that the expectations of the economic performance of oil importing countries in the region closely linked to developments in neighboring countries rich in oil, Especially in the GCC countries. As the recovery of oil-exporting countries is linked to increased capital flows, foreign direct investment and cash transfers to neighboring oil-importing countries.

On the other hand, the report expected GDP per capita in MENA to rise by 1.8 per cent and 1.3 per cent in 2020 and 2021, respectively. GCC GDP per capita is expected to recover this year, with the exception of the Sultanate of Oman and Bahrain, which is expected to achieve negative GDP per capita growth despite the increase in real GDP in both countries during the current year. . The report attributed the increase to arrivals and the annual growth rate of the population of the two countries by 4 per cent and 5 per cent, respectively.

The report said that national income per capita is expected to increase by 2.6 per cent in oil-importing countries, while per capita income in developing oil-exporting countries will fall by 2.4 per cent due to the sharp decline in per capita gross domestic product in Iran. 

The World Bank forecast real GDP in the region to grow by 3.4 and 2.7 per cent in 2020 and 2021, respectively. "The oil-importing countries are expected to see economic growth rise to 4.7 per cent of real GDP by the end 2021. Djibouti leads these countries at a growth rate of 8 per cent in 2021, supported by government investment in infrastructure.

The rise in US Treasuries, which is priced in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), on the basis of which sovereign debt can be raised, could raise foreign borrowing costs for the region, the report said. It is expected that the average ratio of total external debt to GDP in the region will be 30 percent, compared with 40 percent in the GCC.

The inclusion of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar in the JPMorgan Emerging Markets Index will lead to increased capital flows to the GCC, where experts at the World Bank The United States, China and the EU may adversely affect economic growth in the region. He attributed the reason for the slow growth in these countries, to the uncertainty caused by international trade tensions between the EU and the United States and China, and the decline in fiscal stimulus in the United States.








http://www.uabonline.org/en/news/arabicnews/15751604157616061603157516041583160816041610161015/62385/0
claud39
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Post by claud39 on Sun Jun 14, 2020 6:34 pm

@claud39 wrote:The World Bank expects the recovery of Iraq's economy and Yemen and growth in Egypt




04/04/2019





Enlarge this image Click to see fullsize
can anyone answer this Rc_155435962274_23



The World Bank expected that the economy of Iraq and Yemen will witness a remarkable recovery in the coming period, expecting the growth of the Iraqi economy by 2.8 percent this year, especially after the formation of a new government in Baghdad, compared to 0.6 per cent in 2018, and that the agreement on the reconstruction of Iraq will be granted The country's economy is a strong boost. 





The bank also predicted a rapid rebound in Yemen if the violence, despite the continuing risks, continues, noting that the Saudi Vision 2030, which was included in the 2019 budget, will contribute significantly In diversifying the Saudi economy and reducing dependence on oil revenues in the public budget.

He predicted that GCC economic growth would reach 2.1 per cent in 2019, up 0.1 per cent from 2018. This was due to reforms by the GCC countries to reduce their reliance on oil revenues, as well as the huge volume of investment in infrastructure In preparation for hosting the Expo in 2020. " 

The sharp contraction of the Iranian economy, due to the decline in oil production in part from US sanctions, will negatively impact the growth rate, The real Iran has another year of Rook D, with a recording rate of contraction - 3.8 per cent this year. '

The report predicted that oil-importing countries will see growth of 4 per cent this year, compared with 3.8 per cent in 2018. This was due to the return of tourism, especially to Egypt and Tunisia, which helped to reduce the trade deficit of these countries. 

In its report, the World Bank said it expected Egypt to grow by 5.5 percent this year, the largest since 2008, making it one of the best performers among oil importers in the region. The report attributed the reason for the rise in natural gas production, the recovery of tourism and the increase in government investment spending. In addition, the reduction of subsidies several times, the increase in VAT revenues and income taxes, led to the reduction of the budget deficit in Egypt during the past two years.

The report warned of the economic challenges facing Lebanon due to debt burdens, which account for about a third of total public spending. Bank experts expect Lebanon's debt to be around 151 percent of GDP this year. Accompanied by a rise in the overall budget deficit to 12.4 per cent of GDP during the current year, compared with 11.5 per cent in 2018. 

World Bank expects Yemeni economy to recover

The report pointed out that the announcement of the formation of the new government in Beirut may lead to strengthening the morale of the market, especially with expectations of a new reform package of public finance soon, adding that the expectations of the economic performance of oil importing countries in the region closely linked to developments in neighboring countries rich in oil, Especially in the GCC countries. As the recovery of oil-exporting countries is linked to increased capital flows, foreign direct investment and cash transfers to neighboring oil-importing countries.

On the other hand, the report expected GDP per capita in MENA to rise by 1.8 per cent and 1.3 per cent in 2020 and 2021, respectively. GCC GDP per capita is expected to recover this year, with the exception of the Sultanate of Oman and Bahrain, which is expected to achieve negative GDP per capita growth despite the increase in real GDP in both countries during the current year. . The report attributed the increase to arrivals and the annual growth rate of the population of the two countries by 4 per cent and 5 per cent, respectively.

The report said that national income per capita is expected to increase by 2.6 per cent in oil-importing countries, while per capita income in developing oil-exporting countries will fall by 2.4 per cent due to the sharp decline in per capita gross domestic product in Iran. 

The World Bank forecast real GDP in the region to grow by 3.4 and 2.7 per cent in 2020 and 2021, respectively. "The oil-importing countries are expected to see economic growth rise to 4.7 per cent of real GDP by the end 2021. Djibouti leads these countries at a growth rate of 8 per cent in 2021, supported by government investment in infrastructure.

The rise in US Treasuries, which is priced in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), on the basis of which sovereign debt can be raised, could raise foreign borrowing costs for the region, the report said. It is expected that the average ratio of total external debt to GDP in the region will be 30 percent, compared with 40 percent in the GCC.

The inclusion of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar in the JPMorgan Emerging Markets Index will lead to increased capital flows to the GCC, where experts at the World Bank The United States, China and the EU may adversely affect economic growth in the region. He attributed the reason for the slow growth in these countries, to the uncertainty caused by international trade tensions between the EU and the United States and China, and the decline in fiscal stimulus in the United States.








http://www.uabonline.org/en/news/arabicnews/15751604157616061603157516041583160816041610161015/62385/0


 especially after the formation of a new government in Baghdad, compared to 0.6 per cent in 2018, and that the agreement on the reconstruction of Iraq will be granted




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