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Prof. Nabil Jaafar Al-Marsoumi *: Urgent solutions to face the financial crisis in Iraq DinarDailyUpdates?bg=330099&fg=FFFFFF&anim=1

Prof. Nabil Jaafar Al-Marsoumi *: Urgent solutions to face the financial crisis in Iraq

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Prof. Nabil Jaafar Al-Marsoumi *: Urgent solutions to face the financial crisis in Iraq Empty Prof. Nabil Jaafar Al-Marsoumi *: Urgent solutions to face the financial crisis in Iraq

Post by claud39 on Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:29 am

Prof. Nabil Jaafar Al-Marsoumi *: Urgent solutions to face the financial crisis in Iraq
04/01/2020



Prof. Nabil Jaafar Al-Marsoumi *: Urgent solutions to face the financial crisis in Iraq Nabil-Marsoumi-image-2






Although Iraq is the fourth largest producer and exporter of crude oil in the world, it does not have excess production capacity through which it can increase its oil exports (as in Saudi Arabia and the UAE) to offset some of its losses associated with the collapse in oil prices. Although Iraq spent more than 80 billion dollars during the period 2010-2018 on oil fields that were referred to a group of foreign companies in the framework of licensing rounds, but it was unable to raise production by more than 2.136 million barrels per day. 




Iraq has not been able to build surplus production capacities through which it can increase the export capacity of crude oil and compensate some of its price losses, as is the case in some other OPEC countries, particularly Saudi Arabia.




Moreover, unlike other OPEC countries, Iraq has not been able to build a sophisticated oil industry that raises the added value of oil and can meet the needs of domestic demand and export surplus from it, which led to the import of oil and gas products worth $ 3.5 billion annually. The mismanagement of oil revenues has been reflected in the unilateral devotion of the Iraqi economy, as oil today contributes to about half of the gross domestic product, 99% of the total export value, and 92% of the total public revenue.

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Prof. Nabil Jaafar Al-Marsoumi *: Urgent solutions to face the financial crisis in Iraq Empty Leaves in Basics of the macro economy

Post by claud39 on Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:38 am

Leaves in
Basics of the macro economy


Prof.
Nabil Jaafar Al-Marso *: Urgent solutions to confrontation
Iraq


Prof. Nabil Jaafar Al-Marsoumi *: Urgent solutions to face the financial crisis in Iraq Nabil-Marsoumi-image-2



The financial crisis v
In spite of the fact that Iraq is the fourth largest producer and exporter of crude oil
In the world, however, he does not own
It has surplus productive capacities through which it can increase its oil exports (as well)
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (to compensate
 Some of its losses related to the collapse in oil prices. Although Iraq was spent
The largest of $ 80 billion over the period
The foreign entity that was not referred to a group of oilfields from 2010 to 2018 on the oil fields
Y
A touring framework
The most beautiful
However, it could not raise production

Akb from 136.2 million bpd. Iraq could not build

Excess production capacity through which the export capacity of crude oil can be increased and some of its losses compensated
Price is the case
Y

Foremost among them is Saudi Arabia.
In some other OPEC countries

P
In addition, Iraq, unlike other OPEC countries, has not been able to build an advanced oil industry that is being raised from
Internal and exporting the surplus from it, which led to the added value of oil and can meet the demand needs
Oil and gas products, valued at $ 5.3 billion annually. The mismanagement of the oil revenues was reversed
Y

F.
Devote one economy
Y

Next to the fortune teller, as oil today contributes about half of the output
Total and 99% of the value
The total exports are 92%
Total public revenue.
In addition to Iraq, unlike all the oil producing countries, it does not have a sovereign fund that it can absorb
Y
 It possesses the current oil shock by withdrawing from the fund to cover the exacerbated budget deficit.
P is free
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund $ 360 billion in addition to the Monetary Agency
$ 6.515 billion, while the Kuwait Investment Authority owns $ 592 billion and Abu
The investment amounted to 683 billion
Dollars. Also, Iraq does not have very large cash reserves that can alleviate the shock
Long-term economic and health cash needs. As it reaches
Y

The central bank j

The fortune-teller is about 74
 Billion dollars from it
More than $ 32 billion invested
Y

US Treasury bonds are a sabotage of the current crisis
 By discounting government papers or launching bundles
Bring to the private sector.
That's the situation
Y

Carp for the economy
Y

The fortune-teller is a reflection of the failure of successive economic policies of governments
An integrated economy and state building that is not lacking awareness
I am not satisfied with distributing oil revenues in various ways
Multiple spending
It does not now constitute a significant burden on the budget without being able to create a diversified economy and resources

He entered an alternative based on a state of institutions in good governance, and what happened was the exact opposite, as it was undermined
The fragile state and the existing economy deepened its vulnerability and its association with the global market, making today the class
Politics is completely powerless
Y

Yesh Forbus Corona and price collapse
To stand up to the existing challenges associated with aviation
Oil, which led to a clear exposure to the economy and its inability to deal with them, which prompted the economy
Y

Clairvoyant to the brink financially and economically
Expected scenarios for Iraqi oil revenues in 2020
Oil is the backbone of economic life, and it is the financier and engine of economic activities

P Iraq and it is
Almost the only source of income,
Y

In light of it, the general expenditures and the financial and economic policy of the country are determined
 So it is from me
Until we draw some expectations about the volume of oil revenues
Y

Iraq in 2020 depending
There are three scenarios

Father:
2019 oil revenue
Average daily exports = 526.3 million barrels
Average sale price of a barrel of oil
Y

Fortune-teller = $ 61
Iraqi oil revenues for 2019 = $ 527.78 billion
Add

It is required that Iraqi oil exports maintain the same levels of 2019

The first scenario for 2020
Price of a barrel of oil

Fortune-teller = $ 20
Expected oil revenue = $ 697.32 billion
Realized losses
Y

Oil revenues compared to 2019 = $ 830.45 billion
Scenario


The second for 2020
Price of a barrel of oil

Fortune-teller = $ 25
Expected oil revenue = $ 060.38 billion
Realized losses
Y

Oil revenues compared to 2019 = $ 467.40 billion
The third scenario
Price of a barrel of oil

Fortune-teller = $ 30
Expected oil revenue = $ 422.43 billion
Realized losses
Y

Oil revenues compared to 2019 = $ 105.35 billion
Note: Calculation is based on forecasts from March to December (December B 2020) plus
Oil revenue per month
Y

January and February 2020 of $ 247.11 billion.

In light of these third scenarios, Iraqi revenues

The best expectations will not reach you

More than 422.43
A billion dollars
It is not sufficient to cover the salary of West Bank
Y

The 2020 budget amounts to about $ 45 billion.
It was not exacerbated by the spread of a pandemic, which makes it necessary to take quick and short-term measures to face the financial crisis.
It did not, in large measure, result in demand in Corona
High oil, and then the collapse of its prices
 T.
I lost 60%
From its value and led to an acute crisis
Y

Iraq is getting tired of it now. In addition to the almost complete cessation of the private sector
All of Iraq.
Y

Because of the complete curfew imposed
Y

The fortune-teller
Short-term measures to face the financial crisis


In Iraq
The 2020 budget includes the inclusion of the Ministry of the Sprinkler 1
Y

(In the mechanism and the Council of the Ministry) It was reported
Expenditures
The public amounted to 162 trillion dinars, while public revenues amounted to 114 trillion dinars, based on a planned oil price
The amount of $ 56 per mile and a deficit of 48 trillion dinars, which is the property of b
Y

History of Iraqi budgets.
Organizing a crisis budget for a planned oil price of no more than $ 25 per mile, and programming public expenditures yet
Manage as much as possible, then organize priorities to close important spending items such as salaries and expenditures
The validity for confronting Corona and the ration card should be
Y

Within the general revenue limits available monthly
E2. Although the Central Bank Law

The Fortune-teller of 2004 and its amendments prohibit lending to the government, but it
Try it out
Government securities are from the secondary market only, and that is through the use of a letter of discount method
The treasury transfers by the Central Bank are shown as a debt on the debit holder
First, this leads to an increase
Its assets (the central bank’s rights over others) which necessitate an increase in its liabilities (others ’rights to
Central Bank) by increasing the currency in circulation. It is the same method used by the central bank

The fortune-teller after the 2014 oil price crash. Note that the internal debts amount to about 40 trillion dinars, representing remittances
J Treasury and bonds discounted at government banks and the Central Bank

The fortune-teller. Iraq will resort to accreditation
Currently this method is due to the large deficit

P 2020 budget
E3. Launch of the Central Bank

A leaker program is available
You are also granted a package of loans with interest
Zero or close to zero to the private sector in order to activate and strengthen the national production base and employment
More manpower. These measures reduce the negative effects of lower tunnels
The government is the main driver of economic activity
Y

In Iraq.
4. The provisions of control over border crossings not only to maximize customs duties, but also to support the product
Local stores, especially for commodities
There are no local alternatives
5. Restricting imports of luxury goods that are of little importance to society and the economy, or increasing the level of customs duties
It is required to reduce the pressure on the foreign currency sale window
In the Central Bank and the preservation of
Balance balance
Need of cash
 T.
Embryos.
Public and increase the percentage of work through administrative and economic reform to increase profits as well 6
 Z allocated from it to the Ministry of Finance in order to maximize west oil revenues. As well as in torrent
Work on increasing
All revenue is west of oil
 T.
Currently, it does not exceed $ 7 billion annually.
7. Rescheduling existing debts with financial institutions and other creditor countries.

8. Negotiating with Kuwait to postpone the payment of compensation, nothing remains of it
$ 3 billion for a while
We'll see
At least
Many of its commodities are exempt from customs duties T9. Reconsidering trade agreements with neighboring countries
In addition to preferences
It was not given to the port of Aqaba at the expense of


Iraqi Moab.
RS10, Agreement with Cat
My brother

The country should reduce production costs and pay its dues with oil instead of
Dollars.
The solution for people 11. Offering government bonds with fixed deadlines and certain interest to withdraw part of the liquidity in an appropriate manner
For use

Reducing the budget deficit preceded the launch of these bonds by a wide educational and media campaign
To illustrate the importance of these bonds
Y

It will be obtained by the citizen

Facing the crisis as well as interest does not
Spray 12 y
T

New laws to reform the salary system and prevent its politicization, amendment, or cancellation
The Vials
Do not give
Citizens of some
More than salary and adjustment
The retirement laws are a serious measure
Y
P privileges
The salaries of the three presidencies, Iraqi embassies and attachés

P out.
Both foreign and foreign workers sprayed the mobile phone, no phone operators, no 13. Work hard to activate the duty

F.
Iraq.
14 Deduction of the issue of revenues pending with Kurdistan, whether oil revenues or other related revenues
 Z in the border ports aap
No fees, and Westerns.


5. Withdrawing the deposited funds

Followed to the Chinese banks account for the Iraqi agreement
P-Vadra Bank
 Chinese and postpone the agreement to
Financial conditions should improve.
No more than 47 T16 16. Cancellation of the discount on sales of crude oil to the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan
 The necessity of obtaining entry permits ($ 1,000,000 per month)
. And from all Arabs and foreigners
Religious occasions.
Y

Especially P.
 Z17 The need to work on creating an effective system of social protection and possible radiation to provide benefits
. Cash to support
Daily wages and the generally poor who lost
For work and labor
Social segments close to the unemployed
The
Their livelihoods due to the complete restriction of movement due to the sanitary measures in place to confront the Corona pandemic.
Al-Bawda University

(*) Professor of Economics, Ph.D.
Spraying rights
Resch
. Allows you to return now
Iraqi
The reserve is reserved for Al-Eqtisadi Network
I will not refer to the source. a
April 2020
http://iraqieconomists.net/ar/



http://iraqieconomists.net/ar/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/04/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D9%84%D9%88%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%AC%D9%84%D8%A9-%D9%84%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B2%D9%85%D8%A9-%D9%86%D8%A8%D9%8A%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%B3%D9%88%D9%85%D9%8A-%D9%85%D8%AD%D8%B1%D8%B1%D8%A9.pdf
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