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To Decision Makers: How do we face the economy and epidemic Corona? DinarDailyUpdates?bg=330099&fg=FFFFFF&anim=1

To Decision Makers: How do we face the economy and epidemic Corona?

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To Decision Makers: How do we face the economy and epidemic Corona? Empty To Decision Makers: How do we face the economy and epidemic Corona?

Post by claud39 on Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:07 am

To Decision Makers: How do we face the economy and epidemic Corona?


3/25/2020


To Decision Makers: How do we face the economy and epidemic Corona? 19650


Samir Al-Nassery

 
Indicators, analyzes and forecasts indicate that the country is going through a catastrophic and dangerous political, economic and epidemiological juncture and requires immediate solutions and remedies.

In light of this reality, which cannot be quickly and easily overcome with the high costs of facing the Corona epidemic, which will not allow God to turn into a humanitarian catastrophe in front of the weak health system in Iraq and the lack of public commitment to the instructions and the curfew decided by the crisis cell, added to this is the lack of a full-fledged government and structural imbalance in the approach Economic and the failure of all previous governments in its inability to stimulate and activate other economic sectors such as agriculture, industry and tourism to contribute the required amount to enhance non-oil revenues, therefore I see that the implications and challenges that the economy will face Iraq During this year, it will be large and requires finding remedies and solutions to mitigate its future effects, and it can be defined as follows: -

1- The continuation and exacerbation of the sharp decline in world oil prices, which decreased by more than 60% compared to prices a year ago, although Iraq and some OPEC countries will try to reduce daily production rates in order to maintain rates ranging between (3540) dollars per barrel, but that Uncertain and the oversupply will remain within the scope of expectations only, which will force the government to pressure spending heavily to large rates and ratios, as the budget deficit rates will rise.

2- The drop in oil prices will stop the government's plans in the policy of reconstruction and investment, and the budget will be a payroll budget only and a budget to tackle the Corona epidemic. 

3- Since Iraq is one of the countries that imports most food, intermediate and consumer food, the state of stagnation and economic recession will be reflected in the presence of difficulties in supplying it easily to the Iraqi market and in particular the ration card materials, which creates psychological, economic and pension problems for citizens.

4- Unemployment rates for manpower able to work will rise, and rates of inflation and poverty will rise if economic policies and ways to address them are not found from the above expectations. It is noted that Iraq faces numerous and suffocating economic problems if the current treatments and economic reforms are not radical and effective. Therefore, the following precautionary and proactive measures are required:

 First مواجهة Facing the Corona epidemic and securing financial allocations to control the epidemic and stopping its spread in the country requires developing the initiative of the central bank and banks by making a donation to confront the Corona epidemic as it is a humanitarian initiative that emphasizes the societal goal of the banking sector and is a step that needs to be strengthened and transformed into a national project to finance the requirements of the epidemic (by establishing the National Fund Emergencies) by motivating and encouraging all sectors of the private sector, investors, companies, businessmen and the affluent
 , and  that it be maintained according to a system and instructions similar to the Tamkeen Fund supervised by the Central Bank or the Ministry of Finance and managed by a joint board of directors and subject to As for the supervision of the Financial Supervision Bureau, the National Emergency Fund, in addition to donations, will have allocations from the government that
 represents a 50% deduction from the salaries, allocations, and social benefits of the three presidencies. 

The House of Representatives and special grades in the ministries and independent bodies for the months of March and April 2020 are deposited in open bank accounts in the central bank in dinars, dollars, and euros.

This requires the government to start issuing instructions to exempt and postpone government premiums for the private sector, such as taxes and various fees for the year 2020.

And that the central bank motivate banks and encourage them to donate by stopping and delaying the imposition of fines imposed on them at the present time for the period it deems appropriate this year.

With note that the work of the National Emergency Fund will continue after overcoming the Corona epidemic crisis, with a fixed allocation in the public budget to deal with epidemics, disasters and emergency situations.

Second - The Ministry of Trade distributed two rations for the months of March and April in advance. 

Thirdly, it is left to the Central Bank to continue the applications of its approved monetary policy in accordance with its strategy (2020-2020) and its plan for its strategic banking projects until the year 2023 and not to interfere with its independence and establish its leadership and technical cadres that have proven successful during the economic and security shocks after 2014 until the present.

Fourth - Benefiting from the excellent position and monetary indicators of the Central Bank, which are its foreign cash reserves, safe investments, exchange rate stability, price preservation, and stable inflation in dealing with the expected crisis.

Fifthly: Failure to interfere with the bank’s work and influence the exchange rate, as the interference will undermine confidence in the Iraqi economy.

VI- Reconsidering the structure of the 2020 budget and adjusting it to the (emergency) budget and focusing on;

* Adoption of the price of oil in light of expectations for the next three quarters of the year 2020 and between (2030) dollars / barrel.

* Continued coverage of the salaries of employees, retirees, and social welfare

* Coverage of allocations for the implementation of the reform decisions amounting to (10) trillion dinars that the resigned government committed to achieve the demands of the demonstrators ..

* Reducing government spending by conducting a surgical operation targeting beneficiaries, space, fictitious projects, allocations and huge social benefits for the three presidencies and the House of Representatives Ministries, and that the reduction rate should not be less than 50% in the emergency budget.

  This includes the pensions of the above entities that had previously assumed responsibility since 2003.

* The Central Bank continues to implement its initiatives to finance small and medium projects and projects of more than one billion dinars, which it recently launched.

* Covering immediate and special allocations to counter the Corona virus to the Ministry of Health and Environment.

* Supporting and involving the private sector in making economic decisions related to the current economic crisis.

* Not to resort to external borrowing, and for internal borrowing to be within controlled limits.

They are just visions and ideas that may help overcome the economy and epidemic Corona.





claud39
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