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IRAQ DINAR IS SHORT-TERM DISAPPOINTMENT, LONG-TERM BET (please note date of article. This is from 2012. In Jan 2013 the CBI had plans to reinstate the dinar. I have added my commentary throughout the article. It is very interesting to read what they were saying about the value of the dinar in 2012 and since it is now 2019 and we can clearly see something “very fishy” is still going on with the dinar and it is being grossly suppressed and stiffened from it’s true nominal value. I encourage everyone to take some time to read this carefully to get an honest perspective of just where the dinar is [or should be] today before you decide to buy the dinar and invest.)
October 3, 2012
By Aseel Kami
BAGHDAD, Oct 3 (Reuters) – Many Iraqis have lost faith in their dinar currency but to some foreign speculators, it promises big profits. The contrast underlines the uncertainties of investing in Iraq as the country recovers from years of war and economic sanctions.
The logic of the dinar bulls is simple. Iraq’s oil exports rose to 2.6 million barrels per day in September, their highest level in three decades; the country aims to hit 6 MILLION BPD BY 2017, WHICH WOULD PUT IT CLOSE TO SAUDI ARABIA’S CURRENT LEVEL.
Even if unstable politics, militant violence and bureaucratic inefficiency prevent that target from being hit, Iraq still seems to be on the threshold of an OIL BOOM THAT WILL TRANSFORM ITS FINANCES.
Inflows of new oil revenue could give the country big external surpluses and push state finances deep into the black by late this decade – THE CLASSIC RECIPE FOR A STRONG CURRENCY.
“As far as our investors are concerned, when they buy Iraqi dinars they do know it is a long-term investment. You know it takes time for a country to rebuild itself,” said Hassnain Ali Agha, president of Dinar Trade, a U.S. dealer of exotic currencies.
Because the DINAR IS NOT FREELY TRADED BY BANKS OUTSIDE IRAQ, online dealers of banknotes such as Dinar Trade are the only way that most foreigners can invest in the currency. The Las Vegas-based company says it sells as much as hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of dinars daily, shipping dinar notes to thousands of customers in the United States and elsewhere.
Agha said that because of optimism about Iraq’s oil wealth, there had been solid demand for dinars since his company was founded in 2004, a year after the U.S. invasion which triggered years of political violence and economic turmoil.
Back in Baghdad, however, Iraqis themselves are not convinced. Many take what opportunities they have to change their dinars into hard currency, and conduct all but small day-to-day transactions in U.S. dollars.
“We have no trust in the Iraqi dinar – we feel afraid to save it. We trust the dollar more. The dollar does not go up and down, it is fixed,” said housewife and mother-of-two Eman Saadeldine.
The dinar has endured wild swings over the past three decades. In the 1980S, ONE DINAR BOUGHT AROUND $3, but economic sanctions imposed on Iraq around the time of the 1991 Gulf War sent the currency into decline and stoked inflation, which the government fueled by printing money. By late 1995, $1 bought as much as 3,000 dinars. After the 2003 invasion, the central bank intervened in the currency market to strengthen the dinar, using its supplies of dollars to manage the exchange rate.
But over the last several years, even as Iraq’s oil production has expanded, there has been none of the appreciation for which speculators have been hoping. The central bank now sells dollars in daily auctions at a fixed price of 1,166 dinars, A LEVEL BARELY CHANGED SINCE 2009.
In fact, the dinar has recently faced downward pressure as a result of the international economic sanctions imposed on neighboring Iran and Syria. Iraqi traders rushed to buy dollars to sell on illicitly to residents and businesses in those countries, which are hungry for hard currency.
The dinar fell as low as 1,280 in the open market this year before Iraqi authorities reacted by allowing two state-run banks and some private lenders to sell dollars, helping push the exchange rate back to around 1,200 currently.
Another factor counting against the dinar is the fact that the largest banknote is only 25,000 dinars. This often makes the currency unattractive to use in an economy where the banking system is primitive and deals are often done in cash.
Saadeldine recalls paying in cash for a new house in 2009.
“If our money had been in dinars, it would have been impossible for us to carry it. It was in dollars and we carried it in a small suitcase,” she said.
THE CENTRAL BANK HAS BEEN CONSIDERING PLANS TO KNOCK THREE ZEROS OFF THE NOMINAL VALUE OF BANKNOTES TO SIMPLIFY FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS. THIS WOULD NOT IN ITSELF INCREASE THE REAL VALUE OF THE DINAR, SINCE PRICES WOULD ADJUST IN LINE with the redenomination, but economic experts say it could improve confidence in the dinar and THUS BOOST ITS VALUE EVENTUALLY.
(Mnt Goat – what he is saying is that the prices would simply nock off 3 zeros too, thus the real price 25,000 dinars is then 25 dinars. Both would have the same value 25 US dollars. So if this happens then what is our dinar worth outside the country? Still worth the same amount as now UNLESS they also “reinstate’ the dinar. This is the key. It was the key back in 2012 and still is the key to making any big money off our investment. )
“It would increase trust in the dinar even THOUGH ITS VALUE WOULD NOT CHANGE,” said Baghdad-based economist Majid al-Souri. “Indirectly, when trust increases there will be appreciation.”
(Mnt Goat – misses the point here. The VALUE of the dinar is suppressed as the 1166 back in 2012 and now 1190 in 2019 does not reflect its TRUE VALUE. This is the problem here. If oil exports increased to 2.6 million barrels by September 2012 and then we know it more than doubles now by 2017 and the rate of the dinar was over $3.00 before the first sanctions in 1991, they why in hell is the rate still 1/8 of a penny? The why has the CBI repeatedly been telling us they will “raise the value of the dinar to its prior glory in the coming days”? Do you see something VERY fishy going on here? This article does not add up.)
Earlier this year, however, the cabinet decided to suspend the technically complex redenomination plan until further notice, saying the economic climate was not suitable.
(Mnt Goat – this last paragraph is a total contradiction. Do they even know what the hell they are talking about? In a previous statement they say a redenomination would not change the value and prices would adjust to the same when deleting the zeros. Now in this paragraph they are telling us they need an economic climate that is suitable. Why would they need a more suitable economic climate if the value and prices are not really effected? You see the lies. They are not being honest with us.)
The biggest obstacle to dinar appreciation is the fact that for now at least, Iraqi authorities appear content with the exchange rate in its current range.
In a memorandum to the International Monetary Fund on economic and financial policies for 2011, written in March that year, the Iraqi government said it saw benefits in keeping the dinar stable.
(Mnt Goat – this ties directly to the corruption with the currency auctions. This is what they are really referring to. They want to continue the auctions because billions can be made in the buying and selling of the US dollars. Remember they are NOT selling and buying dinars, the auctions is all about taking the US dollars out of the CBI reserves and trading them for dinars. The US dollars are then supposed to be used solely for trading for imports to bring in needed foods and goods to Iraq. Apparently these auctions and grown we beyond their original intent and like a baby sucking on its mother’s tit is hard to get off it. But it has to happen if you are going to have any REAL GROWTH in this country. They can’t keep this up much longer. )
“We believe that the policy of maintaining a stable exchange rate continues to be appropriate, as it provides a solid anchor for the public’s expectations in an otherwise uncertain environment and in an economy with a still very low level of financial intermediation,” it said.
In the long term, however, Iraq’s finances and economy may improve so dramatically that AUTHORITIES FEEL COMFORTABLE ALLOWING THE DINAR TO APPRECIATE UNDER THE PRESSURE OF FLOWS OF OIL MONEY into the country.
(Mtn Goat – Article is 7 years ago from 2012 it is now 2019 and this has already occurred only the Iranian corruption is still holding it back. Iraq has now doubled the oil production from the time this article was written. No one is going to tell me this is not the time to all the dinar to greatly appreciate.)
The IMF expects this year’s estimated budget surplus of just 0.2 percent of gross domestic product to balloon to 12.1 percent in 2017. The country’s balance of trade in goods and services, in deficit as recently as 2010, is projected over the next five years to shift to a large surplus of 11.3 percent of GDP.
Deputy central bank governor Mudher Kasim told Reuters that HE EXPECTED REDENOMINATION OF THE DINAR TO GO AHEAD IN 2014 or later, by which time the amount of Iraqi currency in circulation would have increased significantly, making financial dealings in cash even harder.
IN THE LONG TERM, THE CENTRAL BANK AIMS TO MAKE 1 DINAR EQUAL TO $1 with a combination of redenomination and appreciation, ALTHOUGH THAT WILL TAKE OVER THREE YEARS BECAUSE OF INSTABILITY in the Middle East, Kasim said: “If not for the regional circumstances, we would proceed faster with that plan.”
(Mnt Goat – okay its way over 3 years already. In fact it is more than double that more like 7 years already to this prediction. So where in hell is the RV?)
Some analysts think the appreciation could go further. Kamal al-Basri, research director at the Iraqi Institute for Economic Reforms, an independent research body in Baghdad, said he expected the dinar to stay stable for the next three years, but that afterwards it might strengthen beyond parity against the dollar, including the effect of redenomination.
For that to happen, Iraqi politics will have to stabilize, skill and education levels rise and the economy diversify so that it is not so heavily dependent on oil exports, he said.
Speaking at the Baghdad currency exchange shop that he owns, Ahmed Abdul-Ridha said the dinar’s stability in the past three years was good, but it did not indicate the long-term trend.
“We wish the dinar’s value would go back to what it was like before, when it used to equal $3 in the 1970s and even in the 1980s,” he said.
“I expect that day will come. Why not? What we are going through is an abnormal condition…We are an oil country.”
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles
(Mnt Goat – I want everyone to know that I am not advising you to invest or not to invest in the Iraqi dinar. I am only presenting an article with my opinion based on what they are telling us from Iraq. It’s 2019 and the dinar is still NOT freely traded by banks outside IRAQ. It has been over 3 years already [more like 7 years] and still no RV. Is it time for this to happen. I ask you this question. So relax. I feel these demonstrations may be the key to forcing this change finally to happen. It is not a matter of having the value to support $1.00 or even $3.00. It is instead a matter of ending the corruption and getting the political will to just do it.
IS THE IRAQ DINAR REALLY AN INVESTMENT OR MORE LIKE A GET RICH QUICK SCHEME?
So, this question to ask is really - Is the Iraqi dinar legitimate currency of just exotic collectors item? We know from this article from 2012 that the dinar is in FACT a real currency and is being used inside Iraq as their currency right now. But in 2004, upon its inception, it was not meant to be a permanent currency. If you read the article above carefully you will see that there were many reasons for issuing it. Are these reasons now still legitimate reasons. NO! These reasons are no longer valid and these large 3 zero notes have outlived their usefulness. In fact they are long due to be replaced with normal denominations. The currency auctions breed corruption and is one of the many sources of massive corruption of all this oil money and wealth of Iraq. Many sceptics still say that there is going to be a lop and so I invite you, if you are one of these sceptics, to read my write ups on FB as to why this could not possibly be a lop and why this is the basis for us making millions if not billions off this as a long-term investment. But you have to have “guts” and not be a wimp. Don’t buy into this investment if you are wimp and can’t stand the pain of the constant stream of good news then bad news from the Central Bank of Iraq. Since my initial investment in the dinar in 2006 I have learned so much. I would not still be here if I did not have total faith that someday this currency will revalue by having the OFAC sanctions lifted.
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