Appearance of Mohammed Saleh *: Balance of the existing trade war game: winners and losers in the global economy.!

Papers in the international economy  


27/08/2019






Appearance of Mohammed Saleh *: Balance of commercial war game
Winners and losers in the global economy!

There is a serious economic association that the conflict arena (so to speak) has shown in the trade war
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The United States and China. The question is who will endure the war reparations and how it will be achieved
Stability of the trade balance between the warring parties? Is there a third party in the world?

Zg in that war without his will? Although the United States is using its ongoing economic tools
Which is based on the principle of former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger
In conducting its soft wars
Surgical (economic) operations in the context of managing the trade conflict with China and threatening to increase them


Tariff rates on Chinese imports flowing into the US market are high
However, the United States remains at 25%, according to US President Trump
The actor has to prioritize or delay it to ensure world domination, but this time in a different way. 

Being raised
The US conflict with China is a game of recognizing the strength of the Chinese economy as the foundation of the global economy and its stability
It notes the importance of the risks of China's economy entering a cycle of deflation and stagnation in growth and its potential spillovers
Striking elements of stability and growth in the entire global economy.

Taking into account that China's economy and its sustained high growth remains a safety valve for global balance and security
This has been demonstrated by China to sustain the effectiveness of its high economic growth
To ensure the stability of activity in the international market during the global economic crisis in 2008 and years
Subsequent. China's large economy has maintained high growth, with an impact on efficient global trade flows
High prices have also helped the growth and stability of energy markets themselves without trade wars, especially after that
The balance of payments of oil countries has achieved large financial surpluses due to the high oil prices which increased during the year
Period to reach $ 143 per barrel to ensure the growth of China's economy and markets.
Other strong emergencies.

Low growth levels in the second largest
The United States is well aware of the world's economy, which is a harbinger of doubt
The risk of intersecting the goals and objectives of the trade war itself. So what you fear
The United States' foreign economic policy warns it today in its current conflict with China is to avoid
The Chinese adversary has suffered a major recession in its economy and deteriorating growth rates in those countries that the United States sees

The European Union and Japan are the world's economic lever and the international economic balance
China's economic stagnation caused by uncontrolled trade warfare or exaggerated

The whole world economy will be in a long recession, represented by high levels of unemployment and recession
The results of the economic crisis of the countries of the world to unknown rates drown everyone in the loss.

The zero-sum game that everyone might think would happen between the two sides of the trade war is the remote game
It is never played by the United States in its trade war with China


Third party outside the framework of the trade war between the two major economies

The US State Department is working to sustain its influence in the trade war in two directions:

(First): Eliminating the recessionary burden on the Chinese economy and its near-recovery, after economic surgery
Of the trade war with the adversary, by monitoring the degree of sustainability of indirect growth
To the Chinese economy and try to adjust any
The US economy is based on the balance of mutual benefits
Equal trade benefits represent the share of profit that is expected
The higher US tariff costs
The US side in its trade war with China
Chinese imports, on the other hand, require treatments that help heal the damaged economic tissues
The surgical warfare of the Chinese economy itself, especially in ensuring its supply of cheap energy sources
America is working hard to flood the partially imported energy markets. So for China
Low-value oil supplies help heal the wounds caused by high
US trade market tariffs and facilitate the task of negotiation and bargaining the next equilibrium between
The two warring parties

The second trend is to provide a mechanism for converting the potential oil surplus into gains for the Chinese economy
The latter compensates for its losses, which provide for the sustainability and growth of Chinese production and the guarantee of China's exports
At the same time, lower production costs offset high US tariffs on Chinese goods
Or even the high cost of China's imports of US goods in return
Exports due to the high customs tariff by reducing the prices of oil energy supplied to China and then
Improving and sustaining the current account balance of the Chinese balance of payments so that the latter can maintain its current status
Import tariffs of US goods despite the imposition of corresponding new high tariffs in the range
Trade war.

Finally, the oil-exporting countries must bear the compensation of the commercial war
 Any compensations on behalf of both sides of the war in the game will represent the ultimate achievement of something
The equilibrium Nash equilibrium between the conflict in their trade war
The war on each side is against the interests of the other without a clash. The victorious powers will be at the end



The trade war is the same party to the conflict, the two great powers, the United States and China. The losing forces in
The commercial war will be the third party that will pay the trade war reparations on behalf of the Act, particularly
The oil-exporting countries of OPEC and their sisters. 

The oil countries will pay their surplus and potential financial surpluses
By accepting low oil export prices and counting them as compensation for the trade war for the fugitive
Voluntarily meet the competitors
The victors as two neutral forces (ie one that keeps avoiding causing the other party's
The third party ends up being the economic victim of international conflict and compensating for losses
Game business war between the victorious parties.

In conclusion, the trade war game between the opposing superpowers will become a victorious group
(Game Sum Zero) is the most affected and the biggest loser
Oil countries that will pay their potential surpluses (through the loss of their fair
War reparations, after oil prices take the long-term downward trend to compensate big consumers
The winners of the trade war and their consequences ensure their balanced game of post-trade war preservation

Their balance of payments resulting from the commercial peace of the warring parties.
(*) Financial Adviser to the Prime Minister of Iraq and former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq
Copyrights reserved to the network of Iraqi economists. Republishing is allowed provided the source is indicated.

 27 August 2019



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