Saudi Arabia shrinks shipments of crude to America and Iraq offset the shortfall

Saudi Arabia shrinks shipments of crude to America and Iraq offset the shortfall



12/11/2017

Economy News Baghdad:

Saudi Arabia is making efforts to reduce the global oil supply gap by cutting shipments to the United States, which means that other producers, especially Iraq, will compensate for this shortfall in a general trend that may accelerate in the coming months.

Over the summer, usually the most active period for crude shipments, US imports of Iraqi crude rose about 41 percent from last year, while shipments from Saudi Arabia dropped 22 percent.

This trend continues as data showed Clipper Data that Iraq's shipments to the largest refinery in the United States in October exceeded the Saudi Arabia for the first time in more than 30 years.

The data show that the kingdom's leading role in reducing global crude supply has also cost a market share in the world's top oil consumer with its share in US imports falling to its lowest level since 1985. The United States imports from Iraq and Nigeria, OPEC members, Canada, and US refineries have become more dependent on the country's growing oil production.

"Every barrel that is not produced by Saudi Arabia loses a market share," said Sandy Felden, director of commodities and energy research at Morning Star. "Refineries are turning to an alternative in this situation and obviously Iraqis are benefiting."

Saudi Arabia cut shipments to the United States starting in June as part of OPEC's ongoing efforts to curb supplies. OPEC and other producers, including Russia, agreed in late 2016 to cut production by about 1.8 million bpd. FAO representatives will meet at the end of the month to discuss the extension of the reduction.

From June to August this year, Iraq exported an average of 600,000 barrels per day to the United States, compared to 426,000 bpd a year earlier, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration. Saudi Arabia's shipments fell to 850,000 bpd on average from 1.09 million bpd last year. At its height in 1991, Saudi Arabia exported 29 percent of its crude imports to the United States.

Iraq's shipments to the Port Arthur refinery of Motiva Inc. in Texas rose about 35 percent in the six months to October, said Matt Smith, director of commodities research at Clipper Data.

The Texas refinery, the largest refinery in the United States and owned by Saudi Aramco, did not respond to a request for comment.

"For the month of October, we saw Iraqi crude shipments exceeding Saudi shipments for the first time since 1985," Smith said. US official data on refinery import levels currently available only cover August.

The cuts in shipments to the United States are expected to accelerate, with Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Faleh telling Reuters that December shipments will fall more than 10 percent from November levels.

The cut in supplies helped lift oil prices, with Brent crude selling above $ 64 a barrel last week, hitting its highest level in two and a half years.

Saudi Arabia has cut exports to the US coast on the Gulf of Mexico by 16 percent, while shipments to the West Coast have shrunk by only 8 percent from last summer, as the kingdom faces competition from producers in Latin America.

Even if imports from Saudi Arabia remain at the summer average of 850,000 barrels a day, this would equal only 11 percent of the total US crude oil imports, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Administration data also showed that US production rose 430 thousand barrels per day this year until August. Velden said the threat of shale oil meant Opec would continue to cut production but shipping figures indicated a row over supply to the United States.

"This example between Iraq and Saudi Arabia, I believe, will turn into a continuous situation," she said.

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