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Post by MarcusCurtis Tue Jul 26, 2016 11:54 pm

@JRG wrote:If there were 5T in US IQD sales that has to be 6B USD worth (with the 20% markup), so that's 9 more dealers as big as Sterling.  Where are they?  Yea I'm sure Ali says he sold 1B USD worth, but the Feds charged him with $600M USD and I'll take their analysis over Ali's bragging.


I know that Ali through dinar Trade was the largest dealer. The Feds charged him with $600 million in USD? I guess I missed this. Where did you see that? Do you have a link? I know before he closed down the first time he was well over a billion according to other sources. In my calculations, I just rounded to a billion. I would take the Feds word too if I could see a link to the feds comment.

@JRG wrote:I'm sure there were dealers outside the US, but I haven't found any.  If you search from googles UK site they don't show up.  So its very hard for me to believe there are enough to account for such huge sums.

In a years time, Iraq Currency Watch got traffic from 120 countries around the world. 2016 is already going to outpace 2015. Discounting for bots in order to index our site, traffic has been pretty good. The top 10 countries have been in order, United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Malaysia, Brazil, Pakistan, Singapore, Russia, and Germany is number 10.

Now let's say I want to search for dinar sites in Malaysia. It is number 5 on our list. The best way to do that would be to conduct a search in the native language of Malaysia. When we type that into the search engine look what happens. 13,000 results and many blogs pumping the dinar.

https://www.google.com/search?q=Dinar+Iraq+akan+menilai+semula&ie=&oe=

This dinar scam is bigger than a lot of people realize!

@JRG wrote:This might be so, but I don't think it can be as wildly lopsided as you claim.  M0 is < 40T IQD (see note about M0 and M1 below) so if 30 or 35 of that is not in the country, its a lot more than just big transactions that are being paid for in USD.   How is that USD being replaced when it wears out (ten yours would be about 6x the expected life time of a bill in this country and Iraq seems a lot harsher).

I think Kevin already answered how long this currency would last. I am not familiar with the replacement process.

@JRG wrote:Is it?  Note that the CBI does not report an M0 line in their data, just currency outside of banks, M1, and M2 (at least that I have ever found).  I don't know what the site you offered is using for M0 but based on their definition as "Iraq Money Supply M0 is the most liquid measure of the money supply including coins and notes in circulation and other assets that are easily convertible into cash. Money Supply M0 and M1, are also known as narrow money. " seems wrong to me.  M0 is ONLY cash, M1 is M0 + any asset easily converted into cash.

The Site I offered was Trading Economics.
Trading Economics is a highly respected economics site that provides economic data on almost all governments and central banks around the world. I am actually surprised you don't know about it because they come up often in the search engine when I am looking for data. I know of a few economist that use this site often. The data is pretty reliable.

What is 'M0'


"M0 is a measure of the money supply which combines any liquid or cash assets held within a central bank and the amount of physical currency circulating in the economy. In the United Kingdom, the M0 supply is also referred to as narrow money."

I am pretty sure this would not be too hard to figure out while looking over all the financial data. Trading economics says they get their information directly from the Iraqi Central bank here is the quote,


Money Supply M0 in Iraq increased to 59882 IQD Billion in May from 59167 IQD Billion in April of 2016. Money Supply M0 in Iraq averaged 41539.63 IQD Billion from 2003 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 73259 IQD Billion in December of 2013 and a record low of 6708 IQD Billion in December of 2003. Money Supply M0 in Iraq is reported by the Central Bank of Iraq.”


According To Trading Economics, the M0 is over 59 trillion!

@JRG wrote:Their GDP was growing at 10-20% during this period, their money supply would have to go up to keep pace with that.  Plus they had large trade surpluses during this time which has to increase the money supply and reserves.  Of course many things are going on at once so you can't see the effect of any one factor unless you account for them all which is far more work than I am prepared to attempt, even if its possible given the source of data we have.

You used a Trading Economics link to support your point. I knew you would like the site once you saw it. You do realize that this chart shows the amount of USD in billions that flow through the country from oil sales which accounts for 95 percent of their exports right? So to say that there is a limited supply of USD is not accurate. Notice the biggest increase was during the height of the dinar scam. Hmmmm. ok here is your link.


http://www.tradingeconomics.com/iraq/gdp

This is one way to calculate GDP but let's look at the actual annual percentage of growth.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/iraq/gdp-growth-annual

As you can see, the only year it was over 10 percent growth was in 2012. Every other year it was below 10 percent. That is not even close to a high enough GDP rate to absorb 15 trillion dinar released into the local population resulting in low inflation rates. This does not answer the inflation rate equation. Iraq had low inflation because they exported a lot of currency.


Here is the annual GDP according to Trading Economics 2009 5.81 percent, 2010 5.86 percent, 2011 8.58 percent 2012 13.9 percent 2013 6.6 percent and 2014 -2.1 percent

This is the same period Iraq released 15 trillion into their economy. There is no way Iraq had 20 percent GDP in any year!


@JRG wrote:The loans they are getting (that RamblerNash listed) only look to amount to about $5B USD so not nearly enough to deal with the budget shortfalls. So the CBI is (I presume) buying GOI bonds in IQD to supply the budget so that is a direct add to the money supply.  How much of the loans are being exchanged for IQD would be much harder to determine, but even if its none, the amount isn't that big.

Fair enough but don't forget that Iraq has also been spending their reserves. They have already reduced their reserves by billions. Just out of curiosity I decided to look and see if Iraq was selling bonds. I found out that they are selling bonds. I found out that they started to sell local bonds in 2016 and it was the first time since 2003 that they have done this.

"Iraq's central bank said it plans to sell 1.5 trillion Iraqi dinars ($1.27 billion) in two-year government bonds, as part of an effort to plug a deficit caused by tumbling oil prices and the costs of fighting an Islamic State insurgency.

It will be the first such sale to the public since 2003, when Saddam Hussein's regime was overthrown, and is the first tranche of a 5 trillion-dinar bond plan announced in January, central bank media relations official, Acer Jabbar,said."

http://www.reuters.com/article/mideast-economy-iraq-bonds-idUSL5N16I2HH


TO CONTINUE FOLLOWING THE REST OF THIS THREAD -- Go to page : 12  


Last edited by MarcusCurtis on Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:35 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by MarcusCurtis Wed Jul 27, 2016 12:22 am

@jrg wrote:
Actually, countries have already fallen for it in 1993. Iraq closed their borders and invalidated all the swiss dinar outside their border in 1993. They did trade deals with Jordan and other countries in the region. After a few weeks passed, they opened up their borders again.

Iraq basically told these countries that as soon as sanctions are lifted then their currency will be worth more money. They used this ploy to trade with Jordon at the time. Let me know if you want the information on that.

I think that no country will ever fall for this RV scam again. but it has happened in the past.

When I say the "RV Scam" I mean the claim that Iraq will raise the value of the IQD significantly higher than allowed by their foreign reserves.  Any finance minster or bank executive knows that is not possible.  So no I do not believe any country fell for the RV scam.  Did Saddam convince Jordan that he would raise the value of the iQD allow some trade deal that Jordon would not have otherwise done?  Maybe, but no way could the value Jordon was talked into using be in the "RV" range, bankers are just not that ignorant of how currency works.
I don't know what you would call this because technically the central bank would adjust the rate creating any revalue or devalue. but when sanctions were in full swing after the first gulf war. Iraq traded with its neighbors. They gave them the old dinar with Saddam's face on it and they promised that the value would skyrocket as soon as sanctions were lifted. After conducting trade for over a year Saddam closed the border in the spring of 1993 and invalidated all the swiss dinar outside the border. That is when Saddam started to use the dinar made from China.

While it is true that this was not something the central bank had control over, There are many similarities. And while technically not an RV it was a scam because Saddam never intended that these countries get anything for the dinar in their possession.

 http://www.nytimes.com/1993/05/16/world/fortunes-in-iraqi-bills-gone-overnight.html?src=pm

[url= http://people.ischool.berkeley.edu/~hal/people/hal/NYTimes/2004-01-15.html]http://people.ischool.berkeley.edu/~hal/people/hal/NYTimes/2004-01-15.html[/url]

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Post by RamblerNash Mon Dec 12, 2016 1:13 am

@MarcusCurtis wrote:
@JRG wrote:If there were 5T in US IQD sales that has to be 6B USD worth (with the 20% markup), so that's 9 more dealers as big as Sterling.  Where are they?  Yea I'm sure Ali says he sold 1B USD worth, but the Feds charged him with $600M USD and I'll take their analysis over Ali's bragging.


I know that Ali through dinar Trade was the largest dealer. The Feds charged him with $600 million in USD? I guess I missed this. Where did you see that? Do you have a link? I know before he closed down the first time he was well over a billion according to other sources. In my calculations, I just rounded to a billion. I would take the Feds word too if I could see a link to the feds comment.

@JRG wrote:I'm sure there were dealers outside the US, but I haven't found any.  If you search from googles UK site they don't show up.  So its very hard for me to believe there are enough to account for such huge sums.

In a years time, Iraq Currency Watch got traffic from 120 countries around the world. 2016 is already going to outpace 2015. Discounting for bots in order to index our site, traffic has been pretty good. The top 10 countries have been in order, United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Malaysia, Brazil, Pakistan, Singapore, Russia, and Germany is number 10.

Now let's say I want to search for dinar sites in Malaysia. It is number 5 on our list. The best way to do that would be to conduct a search in the native language of Malaysia. When we type that into the search engine look what happens. 13,000 results and many blogs pumping the dinar.

https://www.google.com/search?q=Dinar+Iraq+akan+menilai+semula&ie=&oe=

This dinar scam is bigger than a lot of people realize!

@JRG wrote:This might be so, but I don't think it can be as wildly lopsided as you claim.  M0 is < 40T IQD (see note about M0 and M1 below) so if 30 or 35 of that is not in the country, its a lot more than just big transactions that are being paid for in USD.   How is that USD being replaced when it wears out (ten yours would be about 6x the expected life time of a bill in this country and Iraq seems a lot harsher).

I think Kevin already answered how long this currency would last. I am not familiar with the replacement process.

@JRG wrote:Is it?  Note that the CBI does not report an M0 line in their data, just currency outside of banks, M1, and M2 (at least that I have ever found).  I don't know what the site you offered is using for M0 but based on their definition as "Iraq Money Supply M0 is the most liquid measure of the money supply including coins and notes in circulation and other assets that are easily convertible into cash. Money Supply M0 and M1, are also known as narrow money. " seems wrong to me.  M0 is ONLY cash, M1 is M0 + any asset easily converted into cash.

The Site I offered was Trading Economics.
Trading Economics is a highly respected economics site that provides economic data on almost all governments and central banks around the world. I am actually surprised you don't know about it because they come up often in the search engine when I am looking for data. I know of a few economist that use this site often. The data is pretty reliable.

What is 'M0'




"M0 is a measure of the money supply which combines any liquid or cash assets held within a central bank and the amount of physical currency circulating in the economy. In the United Kingdom, the M0 supply is also referred to as narrow money."

I am pretty sure this would not be too hard to figure out while looking over all the financial data. Trading economics says they get their information directly from the Iraqi Central bank here is the quote,


Money Supply M0 in Iraq increased to 59882 IQD Billion in May from 59167 IQD Billion in April of 2016. Money Supply M0 in Iraq averaged 41539.63 IQD Billion from 2003 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 73259 IQD Billion in December of 2013 and a record low of 6708 IQD Billion in December of 2003. Money Supply M0 in Iraq is reported by the Central Bank of Iraq.”




According To Trading Economics, the M0 is over 59 trillion!

@JRG wrote:Their GDP was growing at 10-20% during this period, their money supply would have to go up to keep pace with that.  Plus they had large trade surpluses during this time which has to increase the money supply and reserves.  Of course many things are going on at once so you can't see the effect of any one factor unless you account for them all which is far more work than I am prepared to attempt, even if its possible given the source of data we have.

You used a Trading Economics link to support your point. I knew you would like the site once you saw it. You do realize that this chart shows the amount of USD in billions that flow through the country from oil sales which accounts for 95 percent of their exports right? So to say that there is a limited supply of USD is not accurate. Notice the biggest increase was during the height of the dinar scam. Hmmmm. ok here is your link.


http://www.tradingeconomics.com/iraq/gdp

This is one way to calculate GDP but let's look at the actual annual percentage of growth.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/iraq/gdp-growth-annual

As you can see, the only year it was over 10 percent growth was in 2012. Every other year it was below 10 percent. That is not even close to a high enough GDP rate to absorb 15 trillion dinar released into the local population resulting in low inflation rates. This does not answer the inflation rate equation. Iraq had low inflation because they exported a lot of currency.


Here is the annual GDP according to Trading Economics 2009 5.81 percent, 2010 5.86 percent, 2011 8.58 percent 2012 13.9 percent 2013 6.6 percent and 2014 -2.1 percent

This is the same period Iraq released 15 trillion into their economy. There is no way Iraq had 20 percent GDP in any year!


@JRG wrote:The loans they are getting (that RamblerNash listed) only look to amount to about $5B USD so not nearly enough to deal with the budget shortfalls. So the CBI is (I presume) buying GOI bonds in IQD to supply the budget so that is a direct add to the money supply.  How much of the loans are being exchanged for IQD would be much harder to determine, but even if its none, the amount isn't that big.

Fair enough but don't forget that Iraq has also been spending their reserves. They have already reduced their reserves by billions. Just out of curiosity I decided to look and see if Iraq was selling bonds. I found out that they are selling bonds. I found out that they started to sell local bonds in 2016 and it was the first time since 2003 that they have done this.

"Iraq's central bank said it plans to sell 1.5 trillion Iraqi dinars ($1.27 billion) in two-year government bonds, as part of an effort to plug a deficit caused by tumbling oil prices and the costs of fighting an Islamic State insurgency.

It will be the first such sale to the public since 2003, when Saddam Hussein's regime was overthrown, and is the first tranche of a 5 trillion-dinar bond plan announced in January, central bank media relations official, Acer Jabbar,said."

http://www.reuters.com/article/mideast-economy-iraq-bonds-idUSL5N16I2HH
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Post by RamblerNash Mon May 22, 2017 12:13 am

@RamblerNash wrote:
@MarcusCurtis wrote:
@RamblerNash wrote:
@MarcusCurtis wrote:
@jrg wrote:
@Jayzze wrote:what jwflatt stated is probably very true  the arab merchants thru centuries are very cunning and know how to get the most out of people and countries. look at how much they borrow then look at how much they ever repay back. look at all the foolish countries lending them money under the pretext they will charge there gov as well as revalue there currency. what a freaken joke.
No "country" is ever going to fall for the RV scam.
Actually, countries have already fallen for it in 1993. Iraq closed their borders and invalidated all the swiss dinar outside their border in 1993. They did trade deals with Jordan and other countries in the region. After a few weeks passed, they opened up their borders again.

Iraq basically told these countries that as soon as sanctions are lifted then their currency will be worth more money. They used this ploy to trade with Jordon at the time. Let me know if you want the information on that.

I think that no country will ever fall for this RV scam again. but it has happened in the past.


If Iraq is going to RV their currency, as the Guru's say they are, they wouldn't need all these loans and donations from all these countries.


https://www.dinardaily.net/t56162-26-state-of-iraq-awarded-two-billion-dollars

https://www.dinardaily.net/t56242-eu-allocates-114-million-for-the-relief-of-displaced-iraqis

https://www.dinardaily.net/t56044-japan-gives-21-mn-to-promote-growth-in-iraq

https://www.dinardaily.net/t56234-tokyo-agrees-to-lend-baghdad-2-1-billion-to-develop-the-basra-refinery

https://www.dinardaily.net/t56016-china-donates-for-iraq-to-170-million-for-the-relief-of-displaced-people-of-mosul-and-fallujah

https://www.dinardaily.net/t56179-canada-pledges-358-million-to-iraq-for-humanitarian-crisis-economic-reform

https://www.dinardaily.net/t56166-italy-provided-a-grant-and-a-loan-for-iraq-worth-473-million

https://www.dinardaily.net/t56159-kuwaiti-aid-to-iraq-of-176-million
Hi Ramblernash,

This is a great list of links you have here. As I am clicking through them I noticed that most of these loans are in dollars and some in euros. We all know that in today's monetary system debt is monetized into currency. It appears that much of Iraq's debt is being monetized in dollars and euros. between these loans and the shrinking reserve supply I bet that would make up for any deficit spending they are doing.

What this means is this debt is not being monetized using Iraqi dinars through deficit spending using their central bank. Thus Iraq's debt is not adding to their money supply or very little of Iraq's debt accounts for their currency supply.

I am not really sure on this theory because I have not run any numbers but these links are interesting.


Yep! Quite a bit on money that's not coming out of their budget.

Think about all the money that they would have to spend if US and other countries didn't pitch in to help with the fight with the ISIS issue.



If only Iraq would RV that currency, they could pay for all this themselves!

Oh wait...They need to gain a massive amount of reserves to do that!...Nevermind...
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Post by Ponee Mon Feb 26, 2018 12:12 pm

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Post by RamblerNash Mon Feb 26, 2018 2:53 pm

@Terbo56 wrote:Thank you, Rambler, and your point is spot on- $3.22 is a pipe dream-It WOULD be nice but, sadly, it is what it is, the higher the program rate is, the less the dinar is worth- At .86, it would be 1.162-So, NOW to get down to brass tacks, at 0.310, would be $3.22, and lower, at 0.200, would be $5.00 per dinar, and now, here's the biggie! 0.100, would be $10.00 per dinar- Now, everyone, run with that!!- I'd say we'd be in a nursing home at the wheel chair races at that point-That's how long we'd be there before that rate of exchange would EVER take place!


Terbo...Your reference to .86 = 1.162 would be referring to the new notes, if they were to come out today. 

Nobody has those and that's were some folks are still confused thinking they will get that rate applied to the 3 zero notes they hold. (25,000 IQD = ~25,000 USD)

That's where these Gurus take advantage of peoples bad math skills by putting all those numbers into the mix.


Here is the reserve amounts (in red) required for the figures you stated above...


1 IQD @ $3.22 USD = .31 or 193.2Trillion USD at 60Trillion IQD in circulation

1 IQD @ $5.00 USD = .20 or 300Trillion USD  at 60Trillion IQD in circulation

1 IQD @ $10.00 USD = .10 or 600Trillion USD at 60Trillion IQD in circulation

Curently it's: 

1,184 IQD at $1 USD = 0.0008 or 50.67Million USD at 60Trillion IQD in circulation


https://www.dinardaily.net/t71300-iraq-reinstate-rate-to-3-22
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