Ask Yourself....

by **RamblerNash** Fri Dec 04, 2015 10:20 pm

Rainmaker wrote:Ask yourself why all the dinar dealers are still selling dinars for a giveaway price when any second now they will be worth MILLIONS? Or TRILLIONS? Don't they listen to TNT TONY?

Ask your self this. How can the dealers sell Dinar at a price below the CBI value and have enough there to still make a healthy profit?

Where did they buy all those sequential serial numbered Dinar at that they offer at a premium when the value of the Dinar is the same for the circulated ones when you "exchange" them?

Where did all that Maliki "smuggled" money go to?

by **dwm007** Sat Dec 05, 2015 9:43 am

RamblerNash wrote:
Rainmaker wrote:Ask yourself why all the dinar dealers are still selling dinars for a giveaway price when any second now they will be worth MILLIONS? Or TRILLIONS? Don't they listen to TNT TONY?

Ask your self this. How can the dealers sell Dinar at a price below the CBI value and have enough there to still make a healthy profit?

Where did they buy all those sequential serial numbered Dinar at that they offer at a premium when the value of the Dinar is the same for the circulated ones when you "exchange" them?

Where did all that Maliki "smuggled" money go to?

HALLELUJAH!!!!!!

Those that seem to think the worst that could happen would be they would break even need to be asking themselves just that question!!!!!!!! While there is no "proof" of how all that Dinar came here the obvious should be just that, OBVIOUS!

by **RamblerNash** Sat Dec 12, 2015 8:34 pm

.

Some of the dealers tell you where they get their dinar from...

More articles on that:

https://www.dinardaily.net/t49223-billions-of-dollars-smuggled-out-of-iraq-during-malikis-rule

https://www.dinardaily.net/t42851-parliamentary-finance-reveal-smuggling-200-billion-since-2005

https://www.dinardaily.net/t49176-deputy-denies-loss-of-350-billion-and-confirms-extinguish-advance-funding-in-previous-years

https://www.dinardaily.net/t46836-abadi-order-the-return-of-smuggled-stolen-money

https://www.dinardaily.net/t49182-un-ready-to-help-iraq-recover-his-money-smuggled

https://www.dinardaily.net/t49083-buyers-by-the-way-the-cash-smuggling-currency-and-outside-central-suspicion

https://www.dinardaily.net/t47433-this-is-what-iraq-after-international-threats-by-placing-it-in-the-black-list

Have you asked your Dinar Dealer (if they're still in business) for the CMIR that has YOUR dinar on it?

by **Kevind53** Sat Dec 12, 2015 8:49 pm

Honestly? It's not worth my time or effort. Not gonna change things one way or the other.

by **RamblerNash** Sat Dec 12, 2015 8:55 pm

Kevind53 wrote:Honestly? It's not worth my time or effort. Not gonna change things one way or the other.

Nope...It's not worth YOUR time, but it might be of interest to others who have invested more than "play money" on it. Have you considered that?

How about those folks who are looking to put more money into this?

by **Kevind53** Sat Dec 12, 2015 11:36 pm

Regardless ... what could/would they do? Worrying over something you can not control is never worth your time. My wife wrote a blog today that we would all do well to bear in mind, the gist was this: "Today is the best day of your life." Yesterday is gone, and you have no guarantee what tomorrow will bring, so whatever happens, today is the best day of your life.

We have no control over where the dealer we might have bought dinar from got it, we have no way of knowing where they actually got it. We have no control over if or when it changes in value nor in the direction it goes. Neither have we any say in whether or not we'll ever actually be able to exchange or be left with toilet paper. We can either relax and enjoy the ride, or walk away, sell what we have and take our lumps. Really that's the only decisions we can make at this point.

Speaking for myself, I'm just going to relax and enjoy life.

by **dwm007** Sun Dec 13, 2015 8:16 am

Kevind53 wrote: We can either relax and enjoy the ride, or walk away, sell what we have and take our lumps. Really that's the only decisions we can make at this point.

You seem to be contradicting yourself, you say don't worry about it because a person has no control but then you list options?

There are choices to make, two obvious ones are to keep that worthless paper and hope the impossible somehow becomes possible or sell it back to a dealer and recover at least some of the loss. A person sitting on a pile of that stuff may very well be asking themselves later why they didn't sell it while they still could, or they could be thanking themselves for holding on to it if Iraq turns that 60+ TRILLION Dinars into more money than exists on the planet but good luck with that one!

by **dwm007** Sun Dec 13, 2015 8:44 am

RamblerNash wrote:.

Some of the dealers tell you where they get their dinar from...

Have you asked your Dinar Dealer (if they're still in business) for the CMIR that has YOUR dinar on it?

Apparently the majority of the new uncirculated Dinar came from Jordanian banks but that doesn't explain why those banks being outside of Iraq would have Trillions in IRAQI currency fresh from the printer stacked on pallets for shipment? Even if it were shrink wrapped and stacked on those pallets by the buyer/shipper after it left the banks in Jordan there is still the question of why did they have that much Iraqi currency in the first place?

I think it's just unreasonable to think that Iraqi officials were blind to all that currency leaving so why did they allow it? Does it make sense to allow that much currency to leave the country if they were going to have to repay many times what they got for it? Or could it be that just maybe somewhere in Iraq there just MIGHT be a corrupt official or two that arranged for that currency to leave in exchange for U.S. Dollars, Euros, etc with no intentions of ever taking it back?

Also if a person looks at sales listings for Dinar there seems to be a LOT for sale right now and $700 to $750 asking price is fairly common so why do dealers make it so hard to sell back to them? If they could get that Dinar back to where they got it from why aren't they buying all they can get to return to Iraq for a profit?

by **Kevind53** Sun Dec 13, 2015 10:23 am

dwm007 wrote:
Kevind53 wrote: We can either relax and enjoy the ride, or walk away, sell what we have and take our lumps. Really that's the only decisions we can make at this point.

You seem to be contradicting yourself, you say don't worry about it because a person has no control but then you list options?!

No contradiction at all simple two clear choices laid out, you can choose to do one or the other.

What the holder have no control over is where the dealers obtained their dinar, or what will happen in the future. Whether we eventually see some sort of increase in value, loss in value or can even exchange it are things we can not control or influence.

by **Kevind53** Sun Dec 13, 2015 10:31 am

dwm007 wrote: -snip-
Also if a person looks at sales listings for Dinar there seems to be a LOT for sale right now and $700 to $750 asking price is fairly common so why do dealers make it so hard to sell back to them? If they could get that Dinar back to where they got it from why aren't they buying all they can get to return to Iraq for a profit?

Dunno that there is more for sale than before. There has always been a lot offered on places like E-Bay. Nor am I convinced the dealers are making it hard to sell. In fact, a couple of the dealer sites I checked recently to keep tabs on things have buy and sell prices clearly listed. I suspect that at least some list elsewhere in the hopes of getting more than what is being offered by the dealers, listing at or close to the dealer sell price.

by **dwm007** Sun Dec 13, 2015 10:48 am

Kevind53 wrote:
dwm007 wrote: -snip-
Also if a person looks at sales listings for Dinar there seems to be a LOT for sale right now and $700 to $750 asking price is fairly common so why do dealers make it so hard to sell back to them? If they could get that Dinar back to where they got it from why aren't they buying all they can get to return to Iraq for a profit?

Dunno that there is more for sale than before. There has always been a lot offered on places like E-Bay. Nor am I convinced the dealers are making it hard to sell. In fact, a couple of the dealer sites I checked recently to keep tabs on things have buy and sell prices clearly listed. I suspect that at least some list elsewhere in the hopes of getting more than what is being offered by the dealers, listing at or close to the dealer sell price.

Sales are up on Ebay quite a bit over what they were and most dealers require that a seller to have been a former customer. Buy back prices have clearly fallen to much lower levels and dealers are obviously making no real effort to encourage buy-backs. My point is that if they can buy Dinar at well under the official rate and can get it back to the ME banks why aren't they?

Of course I readily admit I can only speculate as to what the answers to these questions might be but things like why did banks outside Iraq have Trillions of new uncirculated Dinars available for sale should be one of the things a person needs to seriously consider. Why has Iraq not acknowledged that many Trillions of Dinar have been exported? Indeed they must have known but in spite of that have never even mentioned it as far as I can tell.

by **RamblerNash** Sun Dec 13, 2015 7:38 pm

dwm007 wrote:
Kevind53 wrote:
dwm007 wrote: -snip-
Also if a person looks at sales listings for Dinar there seems to be a LOT for sale right now and $700 to $750 asking price is fairly common so why do dealers make it so hard to sell back to them? If they could get that Dinar back to where they got it from why aren't they buying all they can get to return to Iraq for a profit?

Dunno that there is more for sale than before. There has always been a lot offered on places like E-Bay. Nor am I convinced the dealers are making it hard to sell. In fact, a couple of the dealer sites I checked recently to keep tabs on things have buy and sell prices clearly listed. I suspect that at least some list elsewhere in the hopes of getting more than what is being offered by the dealers, listing at or close to the dealer sell price.

Sales are up on Ebay quite a bit over what they were and most dealers require that a seller to have been a former customer. Buy back prices have clearly fallen to much lower levels and dealers are obviously making no real effort to encourage buy-backs. My point is that if they can buy Dinar at well under the official rate and can get it back to the ME banks why aren't they?

Of course I readily admit I can only speculate as to what the answers to these questions might be but things like why did banks outside Iraq have Trillions of new uncirculated Dinars available for sale should be one of the things a person needs to seriously consider. Why has Iraq not acknowledged that many Trillions of Dinar have been exported? Indeed they must have known but in spite of that have never even mentioned it as far as I can tell.

Some of the post on EBay are folks trying to get a little more for their Dinar than what the dealers are offering them. Some of them go to EBay because of the red tape from the dealers that disqualify their Dinar because that don't have enough of the right kind of paperwork they seek. Some of the other EBay posts are from the dealers using that as another vehicle for more profits, but the dealers don't want it back. They would have to return it somehow? LOL

Have you noticed that the Dinar Pumpers/Dealers will have special 800 numbers to exchange centers or Banks? There's your clue that they don't want to be involved with any of that either. Their job is to SELL DINAR and get you TO BUY more. If they can't get you to buy more, then they want folks to hang onto it and wait for "it" to happen. Some of the Pumpers even go as far as to say to get off the daily roller-coaster ride, put in into your sock drawer, and you will see it all over the internet when "it" happens. In other words, they don't want to buy it back.

Here's another post kinda relevant to this thread:

https://www.dinardaily.net/t49688-us-man-pleads-guilty-to-illegal-dinar-sales-it-was-smuggled-iqd

I'm pretty sure that Iraq/CBI knows about these exported Dinars. They do like the internationally tradeable USD's and have found a market for the Dinar.

What an industry that the Dinar has become in the USA.

by **dwm007** Sun Dec 13, 2015 8:16 pm

Dollars are valuable to Iraq, they can buy anything anywhere with U.S. Dollars but they can't buy squat with Dinars outside Iraq and what is there to buy with Dinars inside Iraq?

The bottom line is a huge market developed for that paper and it was a major windfall for them so why wouldn't they want to sell it? Of course the bigger question is why would they want to give all those Dollars back for their own virtually worthless paper even at the same rate they got for them never mind paying many times more than they sold them for! There is no doubt Iraq brought in Billions of Dollars in exchange for what amounts to worthless paper outside the borders and I seriously doubt they will be willing to give those dollars back, why would they?

by **RamblerNash** Sun Dec 13, 2015 8:25 pm

dwm007 wrote:Dollars are valuable to Iraq, they can buy anything anywhere with U.S. Dollars but they can't buy squat with Dinars outside Iraq and what is there to buy with Dinars inside Iraq?

The bottom line is a huge market developed for that paper and it was a major windfall for them so why wouldn't they want to sell it? Of course the bigger question is why would they want to give all those Dollars back for their own virtually worthless paper even at the same rate they got for them never mind paying many times more than they sold them for! There is no doubt Iraq brought in Billions of Dollars in exchange for what amounts to worthless paper outside the borders and I seriously doubt they will be willing to give those dollars back, why would they?

How much of their currency is out of their country now? 30% or there abouts? Hmmmm...I smell a re-denomination coming soon.

How much would Iraq make if they RD'd their current currency right now and most of that 30% didn't make it back in time before it de-monetized?

by **dwm007** Sun Dec 13, 2015 9:04 pm

RamblerN wrote:

How much of their currency is out of their country now? 30% or there abouts? Hmmmm...I smell a re-denomination coming soon.

How much would Iraq make if they RD'd their current currency right now and most of that 30% didn't make it back in time before it de-monetized?

I susect it's even worse than that, this is from financial expert John Wasick of Forbes talking about Iraq and actual physical Dinar printed,

"Although no regulator knows how many investors hold the dinar, Prof. Bunting estimates “that there are around 40 trillion Dinar in circulation and only about 5 trillion actually reside in Iraq so the rest in held by dinar speculators around the world. I guess you could say that the Dinar is Iraq’s largest export product"

If that's an accurate assessment, and even if it's off somewhat it's likely to be close, then it is indeed much worse than 30%. Yes I expect Iraq will redenominate/LOP eventually but they have their hands full right now with the economic crisis, ISIS, etc and they don't need the added expense right now of printing an all new currency and implementing the change-over. Apparently they have just decided to print the larger 50,000 and 100,000 notes to deal with the problem of having to handle large bundles of notes for day-to-day transactions and like some other countries, Vietnam, South Korea, etc they can just leave it that way as long as they like.

Eventually however IMO I think they will finally get it together and LOP those zeros, in the mean time I think they have every intention of hanging onto every single one of those Dollars they got for all that colorful paper!

by **RamblerNash** Sun Dec 13, 2015 9:34 pm

The 50k notes were to replace the old worn out 25k/10k notes that they have now in Iraq and to make it easier to carry around for some of their transactions. Now think about all those premium, pristine, un-circulated, in series serial numbered ones that the dealers sold in the US. LOL They might not have needed to produce those 50k notes if they had those 25k/10k notes over in Iraq...

by **RamblerNash** Sun Dec 13, 2015 11:27 pm

.

It looks like Dinar Smuggling has been going on for some time.

https://www.dinardaily.net/t49700-iraqi-dinar-rises-amid-smuggling-scandals

by **Terbo56** Mon Dec 14, 2015 8:45 am

The 50k and the 100k notes are supposed to be used for business and investment purposes inside the country, and doubt, if at all, they will be distributed amongst the people- question

by **dwm007** Mon Dec 14, 2015 8:50 am

Well that's an eye opener to say the least!

That's the closest I have seen to Iraq acknowledging that not only did massive amounts of Dinar leave the country but that it was being illegally smuggled out, at one point they even mention 1 1/2 TONS of currency in a single plane load! Obviously they knew about it and were concerned about but at that time almost everything was being controlled by the CPA and the massive scam was only in it's infancy. Iraqi politicians are not stupid and they could clearly see the potential for massive profits here, quite clearly they were VERY concerned about speculators when that was written but then silence, why? Speculation can be a good thing for a country in the beginning by bringing in cash and boosting the local economy, just like going on a spending spree with a credit card, it works great until the bill comes due! he sane goes for currency speculation, an economy can prosper from speculation until the speculators come knocking wanting their money back or even worse, wanting profits if the currency has been allowed to increase in value just like interest on that credit card!

But what if they didn't have to buy it back? It would be "FREE" money and it was quite apparent that due to that viral, but misguided, rumor that people would get rich from holding Dinars there was a huge market for that paper. All the Iraqi's need do is print as much of that paper as people would be willing to buy then look the other way and pretend they didn't see it leaving and there was Billions of Dollars to be made, later on they could easily deny they allowed it to leave legally and indeed right there at that time they are claiming it is being illegally smuggled out!

Only my opinion? Of course it is BUT why did they Iraqi's suddenly go all but silent on the smuggling issue only occasionally mentioning Dinar being smuggled out of the country but doing nothing to stop it? They had the potential to bring in BILLIONS in exchange for piles of what amounted to bundles of paper, these people are not stupid and if foreigners were willing to send them real currency for that colorful paper they were more than willing to oblige, and why wouldn't they? I am more convinced than ever that Iraq will never allow that paper back into the country, obviously they have the legal means to deny re-entry and a record of illegal smuggling so why would they allow it back in? If we were Iraqi's running Iraq's economy what would we do?

by **Terbo56** Mon Dec 14, 2015 8:56 am

The same thing- We're all going to hold onto this 'crap wrap' for quite awhile, but I thought it would make great 'gift wrap' for small gifts! Ask Yourself.... 3508649203

by **dwm007** Mon Dec 14, 2015 9:01 am

terbo56 wrote:The 50k and the 100k notes are supposed to be used for business and investment purposes inside the country, and doubt, if at all, they will be distributed amongst the people-

Not sure if you are serious or joking but those notes are indeed intended for circulation! These are NOT large notes in the sense that the U.S. used large notes for banking only purposes, those notes really were large and represented large chunks of wealth while the 50,000 and 100,000 Dinar notes represent only small amounts, roughly U.S. $50 and $100 so why would banks us a 50 and 100 only for banking purposes? Of course they wouldn't but it's totally beside the point anyway, there simply is no longer any need for a bank to use large notes and banks quit doing that years ago! They use electronic transfers now and that's why the U.S. dumped the large notes, there simply was no need for them and Iraq wouldn't need them either, Even if they did 50 and 100 Dollar equivalent notes are not large notes anyway, that "Bank transfer use only" for the new notes is simply just more guru generated BS and nothing else!

by **Terbo56** Mon Dec 14, 2015 9:05 am

I really wasn't sure, as this was mentioned back about 9 months ago, and if it will reduce the number of dinars in daily circulation in Iraq, this will indeed be a good thing- The less they have to carry around to make everyday purchases- Smile

by **Terbo56** Mon Dec 14, 2015 9:08 am

DWM007, I'm glad you clarified that, now, IF everyone heeds what you explain, there will or should be less, or no doubt what those notes are intended for-

by **dwm007** Mon Dec 14, 2015 9:17 am

terbo56 wrote:I really wasn't sure, as this was mentioned back about 9 months ago, and if it will reduce the number of dinars in daily circulation in Iraq, this will indeed be a good thing- The less they have to carry around to make everyday purchases-

Well it's a good thing for Iraqis because it will reduce the amount of paper they have to take to market. Put yourself in their position here, if suddenly credit/debit cards and credit buying for large items like cars, etc were limited to certain areas and the biggest note available was a $20 look what a mess that would be! That's what the Iraqi's are faced with, most sales are done on a cash basis, even large ones, so they need bundles of notes to buy some items. Iraq is working on this and trying desperately to integrate credit/debit cards into the system but lack of infrastructure and people's distrust of banks has hindered this severely, Make no mistake about it, those new larger notes are nothing more than a way to ease the burden of day-to-day market transactions between buyers and merchants and has absolutely nothing to do with banking transfers, a method of transfers between banks that has been out of use for decades anyway!

by **Terbo56** Mon Dec 14, 2015 9:35 am

You are 100% correct- I have no problem or argument here- It would only make sense that it would ease the problem of excess amounts of dinar to be used in buying things- And, as things have gotten progressively worse, their distrust of banks, IMHO, is warranted- Electronic cards for use by the people will be, and should be their best bet, and will protect against the wearing out of the paper, and insure that they are somewhat protected from carrying 'excess' amounts of paper currency-

by **dwm007** Wed Dec 16, 2015 9:59 am

I don't get it (although by now I suppose I should understand!), I see people on other sites still talking as if these new notes are going to be for banking purposes only but that's ridiculous for a couple of reasons. First no banks do that anymore, making large transfers using large notes moved around by armored cars has long since went the way of the Dodo bird! Since electronic banking came into use in the 1960's there is simply no reason for a bank to do this and incur the problems associated with it, the expense of armored car transfer, the time involved with transfer using that method vs instantaneous electronic means, security issues, etc, I mean seriously using those big notes for banking is simply a PRIMITIVE method of banking and no one does that anymore!

Then there are the notes themselves, these are NOT "large" notes in the first place! Sure they represent large numbers of units of currency but the represent only small amounts of value, the real determination of a note's true size. To put it into perspective let's compare the U.S. $10'000 note and the Iraqi 10'000 note. In 1969 about the time these notes were officially dropped from use (for all practical purposes they had not been used for years) a person with one of these in his/her possession could go out and buy a new car AND a new pickup truck and still have enough money left to buy a small boat and trailer to tow behind the truck! If someone thinks I am stretching that just check the prices on those things back then! Now today an Iraqi with a 10'000 note can buy what with it? A gallon of Milk, a dozen eggs and MAYBE have enough left for a loaf of bread?

Ok, that's only a 10'000 note let's look at the new 100'000 when it's brought into circulation. Look at what a $100'000 note would buy in the U.S. back in 1969 before they were removed, a new house, car, truck, boat and still have enough left to go on vacation! But in Iraq today the new 100'000 note is going to be worth less than $100 so to an Iraqi or an Iraqi bank these are obviously NOT large notes and in fact represent only modest value, why in the dickens would Iraqi banks want to use them only for banking purposes, especially considering none of them use that ancient obsolete method of banking anyway!

by **RamblerNash** Tue Jul 19, 2016 1:34 pm

dwm007 wrote:
RamblerN wrote:

How much of their currency is out of their country now? 30% or there abouts? Hmmmm...I smell a re-denomination coming soon.

How much would Iraq make if they RD'd their current currency right now and most of that 30% didn't make it back in time before it de-monetized?

I susect it's even worse than that, this is from financial expert John Wasick of Forbes talking about Iraq and actual physical Dinar printed,

"Although no regulator knows how many investors hold the dinar, Prof. Bunting estimates “that there are around 40 trillion Dinar in circulation and only about 5 trillion actually reside in Iraq so the rest in held by dinar speculators around the world. I guess you could say that the Dinar is Iraq’s largest export product"

If that's an accurate assessment, and even if it's off somewhat it's likely to be close, then it is indeed much worse than 30%. Yes I expect Iraq will redenominate/LOP eventually but they have their hands full right now with the economic crisis, ISIS, etc and they don't need the added expense right now of printing an all new currency and implementing the change-over. Apparently they have just decided to print the larger 50,000 and 100,000 notes to deal with the problem of having to handle large bundles of notes for day-to-day transactions and like some other countries, Vietnam, South Korea, etc they can just leave it that way as long as they like.

Eventually however IMO I think they will finally get it together and LOP those zeros, in the mean time I think they have every intention of hanging onto every single one of those Dollars they got for all that colorful paper!

by **MarcusCurtis** Fri Jul 22, 2016 12:42 pm

dwm007 wrote:
RamblerNash wrote:.

Some of the dealers tell you where they get their dinar from...

Have you asked your Dinar Dealer (if they're still in business) for the CMIR that has YOUR dinar on it?

Apparently the majority of the new uncirculated Dinar came from Jordanian banks but that doesn't explain why those banks being outside of Iraq would have Trillions in IRAQI currency fresh from the printer stacked on pallets for shipment? Even if it were shrink wrapped and stacked on those pallets by the buyer/shipper after it left the banks in Jordan there is still the question of why did they have that much Iraqi currency in the first place?

I think it's just unreasonable to think that Iraqi officials were blind to all that currency leaving so why did they allow it? Does it make sense to allow that much currency to leave the country if they were going to have to repay many times what they got for it? Or could it be that just maybe somewhere in Iraq there just MIGHT be a corrupt official or two that arranged for that currency to leave in exchange for U.S. Dollars, Euros, etc with no intentions of ever taking it back?

Also if a person looks at sales listings for Dinar there seems to be a LOT for sale right now and $700 to $750 asking price is fairly common so why do dealers make it so hard to sell back to them? If they could get that Dinar back to where they got it from why aren't they buying all they can get to return to Iraq for a profit?

And Bingo was his nameo!

These are numbers from the central bank of Iraq

2009 Currency outside of banks= 21 trillion 776 billion
2010 Currency outside of banks= 24 trillion 342 billion
2011 Currency outside of banks= 28 trillion 287 billion
2012 Currency Outside of banks= 30 trillion 594 billion
2013 Currency Outside of Banks= 34 trillion 994 billion
2014 Currency Outside of banks= 36 trillion 72 billion

These numbers are from the key financial indicators document. Inflation reached a record low of -6.37 percent in October of 2009. In 2010 it was 3 percent, Then 6 percent in 2011, 3 percent in 2012, 3 percent in 2013, and 2 percent for 2014.

This is in spite of the fact that Iraq’s money supply grew by 15 trillion in the same period of time. This was during the height of the dinar scam. While a good economy may absorb some of the expansion, I will propose that it won’t cover an expansion this great. These inflation rates should be much higher than what they are.

This is because whenever you dump a massive amount of currency units into the money supply the end result is always hyperinflation. ALWAYS! Now how is it that Iraq can release 15 trillion dinar into their local money supply and have inflation rates so low? The answer is simple. This currency is leaving the country. It is not entering their local economy. If it did enter their economy then they would get much higher inflation rates. They would even get hyperinflation.

I will purpose that Iraq's currency supply in the 1990's was the very reason for their hyperinflation, yet there was less currency in circulation during the 1990's then there is right now. That tells me that Iraq has been exporting huge amounts of currency. My personal calculations are between 25 to 30 trillion.

by **ReapAndSow73** Fri Jul 22, 2016 1:18 pm

MarcusCurtis wrote:
dwm007 wrote:
RamblerNash wrote:.

Some of the dealers tell you where they get their dinar from...

Have you asked your Dinar Dealer (if they're still in business) for the CMIR that has YOUR dinar on it?

Apparently the majority of the new uncirculated Dinar came from Jordanian banks but that doesn't explain why those banks being outside of Iraq would have Trillions in IRAQI currency fresh from the printer stacked on pallets for shipment? Even if it were shrink wrapped and stacked on those pallets by the buyer/shipper after it left the banks in Jordan there is still the question of why did they have that much Iraqi currency in the first place?

I think it's just unreasonable to think that Iraqi officials were blind to all that currency leaving so why did they allow it? Does it make sense to allow that much currency to leave the country if they were going to have to repay many times what they got for it? Or could it be that just maybe somewhere in Iraq there just MIGHT be a corrupt official or two that arranged for that currency to leave in exchange for U.S. Dollars, Euros, etc with no intentions of ever taking it back?

Also if a person looks at sales listings for Dinar there seems to be a LOT for sale right now and $700 to $750 asking price is fairly common so why do dealers make it so hard to sell back to them? If they could get that Dinar back to where they got it from why aren't they buying all they can get to return to Iraq for a profit?
And Bingo was his nameo!

These are numbers from the central bank of Iraq

2009 Currency outside of banks= 21 trillion 776 billion
2010 Currency outside of banks= 24 trillion 342 billion
2011 Currency outside of banks= 28 trillion 287 billion
2012 Currency Outside of banks= 30 trillion 594 billion
2013 Currency Outside of Banks= 34 trillion 994 billion
2014 Currency Outside of banks= 36 trillion 72 billion

These numbers are from the key financial indicators document. Inflation reached a record low of -6.37 percent in October of 2009. In 2010 it was 3 percent, Then 6 percent in 2011, 3 percent in 2012, 3 percent in 2013, and 2 percent for 2014.
This is in spite of the fact that Iraq’s money supply grew by 15 trillion in the same period of time. This was during the height of the dinar scam. While a good economy may absorb some of the expansion, I will propose that it won’t cover an expansion this great. These inflation rates should be much higher than what they are.

This is because whenever you dump a massive amount of currency units into the money supply the end result is always hyperinflation. ALWAYS! Now how is it that Iraq can release 15 trillion dinar into their local money supply and have inflation rates so low? The answer is simple. This currency is leaving the country. It is not entering their local economy. If it did enter their economy then they would get much high inflation rates. They would even get hyperinflation.

I will purpose that Iraq's currency supply in the 1990's was the very reason for their hyperinflation, yet there was less currency in circulation during the 1990's then there is right now. That tells me that Iraq has been exporting huge amounts of currency. My personal calculations are between 25 to 30 trillion.

IQD is the 2nd-largest export. M1 + M2 is close to 90T, actually. CBI is smart - they export IQD, maintain a weak currency base (completely advantageous when servicing debt, they want it that way), then they'll decommission those thee 0 notes overseas and redenominate...just like 20+ countries have done over the last few decades...it's not rocket surgery. :-)

by **Jayzze** Fri Jul 22, 2016 3:25 pm

maybe just maybe the dinar is as worthless as the value?

by **Terbo56** Fri Jul 22, 2016 3:26 pm

Same thing, thereabouts-

by **MarcusCurtis** Fri Jul 22, 2016 4:28 pm

ReapAndSow73 wrote:
MarcusCurtis wrote:
dwm007 wrote:
RamblerNash wrote:.

Some of the dealers tell you where they get their dinar from...

Have you asked your Dinar Dealer (if they're still in business) for the CMIR that has YOUR dinar on it?

Apparently the majority of the new uncirculated Dinar came from Jordanian banks but that doesn't explain why those banks being outside of Iraq would have Trillions in IRAQI currency fresh from the printer stacked on pallets for shipment? Even if it were shrink wrapped and stacked on those pallets by the buyer/shipper after it left the banks in Jordan there is still the question of why did they have that much Iraqi currency in the first place?

I think it's just unreasonable to think that Iraqi officials were blind to all that currency leaving so why did they allow it? Does it make sense to allow that much currency to leave the country if they were going to have to repay many times what they got for it? Or could it be that just maybe somewhere in Iraq there just MIGHT be a corrupt official or two that arranged for that currency to leave in exchange for U.S. Dollars, Euros, etc with no intentions of ever taking it back?

Also if a person looks at sales listings for Dinar there seems to be a LOT for sale right now and $700 to $750 asking price is fairly common so why do dealers make it so hard to sell back to them? If they could get that Dinar back to where they got it from why aren't they buying all they can get to return to Iraq for a profit?
And Bingo was his nameo!

These are numbers from the central bank of Iraq

2009 Currency outside of banks= 21 trillion 776 billion
2010 Currency outside of banks= 24 trillion 342 billion
2011 Currency outside of banks= 28 trillion 287 billion
2012 Currency Outside of banks= 30 trillion 594 billion
2013 Currency Outside of Banks= 34 trillion 994 billion
2014 Currency Outside of banks= 36 trillion 72 billion

These numbers are from the key financial indicators document. Inflation reached a record low of -6.37 percent in October of 2009. In 2010 it was 3 percent, Then 6 percent in 2011, 3 percent in 2012, 3 percent in 2013, and 2 percent for 2014.
This is in spite of the fact that Iraq’s money supply grew by 15 trillion in the same period of time. This was during the height of the dinar scam. While a good economy may absorb some of the expansion, I will propose that it won’t cover an expansion this great. These inflation rates should be much higher than what they are.

This is because whenever you dump a massive amount of currency units into the money supply the end result is always hyperinflation. ALWAYS! Now how is it that Iraq can release 15 trillion dinar into their local money supply and have inflation rates so low? The answer is simple. This currency is leaving the country. It is not entering their local economy. If it did enter their economy then they would get much high inflation rates. They would even get hyperinflation.

I will purpose that Iraq's currency supply in the 1990's was the very reason for their hyperinflation, yet there was less currency in circulation during the 1990's then there is right now. That tells me that Iraq has been exporting huge amounts of currency. My personal calculations are between 25 to 30 trillion.

IQD is the 2nd-largest export. M1 + M2 is close to 90T, actually. CBI is smart - they export IQD, maintain a weak currency base (completely advantageous when servicing debt, they want it that way), then they'll decommission those thee 0 notes overseas and redenominate...just like 20+ countries have done over the last few decades...it's not rocket surgery. :-)

It is important to note that their reserves have gone down. They have been spending them to make up for budget shortfalls because of falling oil prices. Their currency supply has also gone down. But this is mainly electronic currency! Their currency supply outside of banks (cash) has gone up at the same time the overall money supply went down. When I looked at the numbers a few days ago over 39 trillion dinar is currently outside of banks. Their inflation rate for this year is roughly about 2 percent, yet they almost have 40 TRILLION sitting outside the banks.

I think it is safe to say that Iraq does not want the currency outside their borders back in Iraq.

by **jwflatt** Fri Jul 22, 2016 5:38 pm

I told you people more than 6 months ago about the trillions outside of Iraq. I also told you that Shabbi was a smart man. He knew what he was doing by selling the DINAR to all of us. The sales of dinar is what has kept Iraq out of bankruptcy. Trillions of dinar outside of Iraq does not effect Iraq. They have so much inventory that they could sell another 40-50 trillion and still be okay with it. They like having our Green in their possession. They don't want a rv, never intended to have a rv, and still are not planning a rv in any of our lifetime

by **Kevind53** Sat Jul 23, 2016 12:06 am

jwflatt wrote:I told you people more than 6 months ago about the trillions outside of Iraq. I also told you that Shabbi was a smart man. He knew what he was doing by selling the DINAR to all of us. The sales of dinar is what has kept Iraq out of bankruptcy. Trillions of dinar outside of Iraq does not effect Iraq. They have so much inventory that they could sell another 40-50 trillion and still be okay with it. They like having our Green in their possession. They don't want a rv, never intended to have a rv, and still are not planning a rv in any of our lifetime

That's not exactly a news flash here ... just sayin ...

by jrg Sat Jul 23, 2016 9:05 am

I think you are way overestimating the amount of IQD outside of the country. If Prof Bunting's (whoever that is) estimate that only 5 of the 40T M0 was in the country that would mean that only 12.5% of cash was IQD and the rest presumably USD. But if that were the case then why bother printing 50K and 100K notes as no one is carrying IQD anyway. How do these 35B USD get replenished when they wear out? If you go to buy something in Iraq this situation should be obvious as no one would be giving IQD in change or using it to buy stuff, 88% of the cash you see would be USD, but I have never seen any verified report of this, only guru claims.

The biggest factor making both the CBIs reservers and the money supply (M1 not just M0) go up is a trade surplus and they had such over the years Marcus points out that currency outside of banks (M0) grew by 2-3T IQD per year. M1 (which includes M0) grew by more than this during that same period. I do not claim to have done anything close to a full analysis of all this to account for all the factors that can raise the money supply (like deficit spending which the GOI also did for these years and is still doing). But to just say the M0 growth was all due to selling IQD to stupid westerners is to ignore those other factors which clearly is giving a distorted picture as those other factors clearly exist and must be accounted for in any such analysis.

There also aren't enough dealers to account for 35T IQD in sales. Sterling was one of the biggest and they did $600M over ten years in total business so thats about $500M worth of IQD (taking off their 20% and assuming it was all IQD) or 550B IQD. So there have to be 63 dealers as large as Sterling to account for 35T IQD. Who/where are the other 62 of them?

My guess (and I won't even claim its an estimate or even a guesstimate) is that IQD outside of Iraq is 2-3T. Which is still a huge huge scam of course since we all know (now at least) that the RV was a myth from day 1. But I think you guys are claiming its 10x bigger than it really is.

by **jwflatt** Sat Jul 23, 2016 11:09 am

I read yesterday where MY Currency watch shows that there was more than 90 trillion printed in 2014. Of that 90 more than a third of that was out of the country.

by **Jayzze** Sun Jul 24, 2016 12:15 am

what jwflatt stated is probably very true the arab merchants thru centuries are very cunning and know how to get the most out of people and countries. look at how much they borrow then look at how much they ever repay back. look at all the foolish countries lending them money under the pretext they will charge there gov as well as revalue there currency. what a freaken joke.

by jrg Sun Jul 24, 2016 12:34 pm

Jayzze wrote:what jwflatt stated is probably very true the arab merchants thru centuries are very cunning and know how to get the most out of people and countries. look at how much they borrow then look at how much they ever repay back. look at all the foolish countries lending them money under the pretext they will charge there gov as well as revalue there currency. what a freaken joke.

No "country" is ever going to fall for the RV scam.

by **MarcusCurtis** Mon Jul 25, 2016 12:47 am

jrg wrote:I think you are way overestimating the amount of IQD outside of the country. If Prof Bunting's (whoever that is) estimate that only 5 of the 40T M0 was in the country that would mean that only 12.5% of cash was IQD and the rest presumably USD. But if that were the case then why bother printing 50K and 100K notes as no one is carrying IQD anyway. How do these 35B USD get replenished when they wear out? If you go to buy something in Iraq this situation should be obvious as no one would be giving IQD in change or using it to buy stuff, 88% of the cash you see would be USD, but I have never seen any verified report of this, only guru claims.

The biggest factor making both the CBIs reservers and the money supply (M1 not just M0) go up is a trade surplus and they had such over the years Marcus points out that currency outside of banks (M0) grew by 2-3T IQD per year. M1 (which includes M0) grew by more than this during that same period. I do not claim to have done anything close to a full analysis of all this to account for all the factors that can raise the money supply (like deficit spending which the GOI also did for these years and is still doing). But to just say the M0 growth was all due to selling IQD to stupid westerners is to ignore those other factors which clearly is giving a distorted picture as those other factors clearly exist and must be accounted for in any such analysis.

There also aren't enough dealers to account for 35T IQD in sales. Sterling was one of the biggest and they did $600M over ten years in total business so thats about $500M worth of IQD (taking off their 20% and assuming it was all IQD) or 550B IQD. So there have to be 63 dealers as large as Sterling to account for 35T IQD. Who/where are the other 62 of them?

My guess (and I won't even claim its an estimate or even a guesstimate) is that IQD outside of Iraq is 2-3T. Which is still a huge huge scam of course since we all know (now at least) that the RV was a myth from day 1. But I think you guys are claiming its 10x bigger than it really is.

Well this is a part of the same interesting conversation we are having over at Iraq Currency Watch. JRG you have made these points over there and they are all valid concerns. Great observations. I have responded to you over at Iraq Currency Watch but I don't think you have had the time to read it. I know it was rather long and I am sorry for that. So I will address your concerns here.

I know you say that there are not enough American dealers to account for an export of 30 trillion, By my calculations American dealers probably account for 4 to 5 trillion dinar. Dinar Trade was the biggest dealer and Ali himself said that he has had over a billion in dinar sales. That was on a conference call. Sam I am has more information on it.

The problem with this calculation stems from the fact that we are only using America for a basis of global dinar sales. The dinar is sold globally to private investors set up by dealers all over the world. Dinar Trade was even set up in Europe. But you could buy dinar locally from all over the world. American dealers were not the only ones pedaling this thing. That throws these calculations way off. There are many countries and many dealers around the world that sell dinar. Many countries have their own set of gurus too. I know this because they used to take stuff from my blog back when I was pro-dinar. It was translated to suit their needs.

As far as the amount of US dollars being a guru lie goes, we all know that the revalue was misrepresented. Iraq wanted to do a redenomination. That was back when Shabibi was governor of the CBI. Even in spite of my limited economic understanding at the time I got into this thing, I recall reading several articles as to the reason Iraq wanted to do this. One of the main reasons was they wanted to strengthen the dinar against the dollar.

Many articles said that the dinar is mainly used for smaller purchases while the dollar is used for larger purchases. This is where some of the gurus got their information. But they claimed that Iraq wanted to revalue and not redenominate.
I remember back when I discovered this was a redenomination and not a revalue. I went over many of the same Iraqi articles. According to the press in Iraq the dollar is used for a major transaction because they don’t need to bring as much physical cash. It was easier to facilitate these transactions. The dinar was competing with the dollar and one of the objectives of a redenomination was to lessen the dollar amount in Iraq. That much was true but the gurus misrepresented the information.

This does not mean that Iraq will redenominate today. That was a policy that Shabibi was pushing. They wanted to lessen their dependence on the dollar in their local economy. At least this was according to Iraqi articles I personally read. If this scenario were true then this would also mean that less dinar would be needed to sustain their economy at that time and the dollar filled the gap.

It could very well be that the 50,000 and 100,00 notes may be what they do instead of a redenomination. After all like I said, It was shabibi that was pushing that policy. The overabundance of US dollars in Iraq originated as an Iraqi press claim, not a guru claim. The gurus just took it and ran with it.

No one has said that the total growth of M0 is because they have been selling dinar to stupid westerners. We have been talking about money outside of banks. M0 is a bigger number. Today Iraq's money outside of banks is around 39 trillion while their M0 is 59 Trillion. Their M1 is over 69 trillion while their M2 is 86 Trillion. Source = Central bank of Iraq and Trading economics

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/iraq/money-supply-m0

There is no possible way that Iraq can add an average of 3 trillion a year to their local money supply for 5 years straight and still maintain inflation rates anywhere from 2 to 6 percent a year. It should be in the double digits if not almost in the triple digits. There is no other way to account for this except for them to export their currency or lie about massive inflation rates. I believe they are exporting it.

I said that Professor Cory Bunting, director of the Capital Markets Center at Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond, Virginia believes that Iraq exported a great deal of currency. His numbers were higher than mine. Now my initial guess was 25 trillion. I don't know the exact number. The one thing I know for sure is that it is not 2 or 3 trillion. Those numbers are way to low.

As far as deficit spending adding to the money supply goes, I will admit that I have not looked at any of those numbers in over 3 years. So I have not done an analysis myself, but maybe a shrinking reserve supply will account for any deficit spending instead of monetizing debt through their central bank. Not sure on that. Just a hunch.

by **MarcusCurtis** Mon Jul 25, 2016 12:58 am

jrg wrote:
Jayzze wrote:what jwflatt stated is probably very true the arab merchants thru centuries are very cunning and know how to get the most out of people and countries. look at how much they borrow then look at how much they ever repay back. look at all the foolish countries lending them money under the pretext they will charge there gov as well as revalue there currency. what a freaken joke.
No "country" is ever going to fall for the RV scam.

Actually, countries have already fallen for it in 1993. Iraq closed their borders and invalidated all the swiss dinar outside their border in 1993. They did trade deals with Jordan and other countries in the region. After a few weeks passed, they opened up their borders again.

Iraq basically told these countries that as soon as sanctions are lifted then their currency will be worth more money. They used this ploy to trade with Jordon at the time. Let me know if you want the information on that.

I think that no country will ever fall for this RV scam again. but it has happened in the past.

by **RamblerNash** Mon Jul 25, 2016 10:04 am

MarcusCurtis wrote:
jrg wrote:
Jayzze wrote:what jwflatt stated is probably very true the arab merchants thru centuries are very cunning and know how to get the most out of people and countries. look at how much they borrow then look at how much they ever repay back. look at all the foolish countries lending them money under the pretext they will charge there gov as well as revalue there currency. what a freaken joke.
No "country" is ever going to fall for the RV scam.
Actually, countries have already fallen for it in 1993. Iraq closed their borders and invalidated all the swiss dinar outside their border in 1993. They did trade deals with Jordan and other countries in the region. After a few weeks passed, they opened up their borders again.

Iraq basically told these countries that as soon as sanctions are lifted then their currency will be worth more money. They used this ploy to trade with Jordon at the time. Let me know if you want the information on that.

I think that no country will ever fall for this RV scam again. but it has happened in the past.

by **MarcusCurtis** Mon Jul 25, 2016 11:12 am

RamblerNash wrote:
MarcusCurtis wrote:
jrg wrote:
Jayzze wrote:what jwflatt stated is probably very true the arab merchants thru centuries are very cunning and know how to get the most out of people and countries. look at how much they borrow then look at how much they ever repay back. look at all the foolish countries lending them money under the pretext they will charge there gov as well as revalue there currency. what a freaken joke.
No "country" is ever going to fall for the RV scam.
Actually, countries have already fallen for it in 1993. Iraq closed their borders and invalidated all the swiss dinar outside their border in 1993. They did trade deals with Jordan and other countries in the region. After a few weeks passed, they opened up their borders again.

Iraq basically told these countries that as soon as sanctions are lifted then their currency will be worth more money. They used this ploy to trade with Jordon at the time. Let me know if you want the information on that.

I think that no country will ever fall for this RV scam again. but it has happened in the past.

If Iraq is going to RV their currency, as the Guru's say they are, they wouldn't need all these loans and donations from all these countries.

https://www.dinardaily.net/t56162-26-state-of-iraq-awarded-two-billion-dollars

https://www.dinardaily.net/t56242-eu-allocates-114-million-for-the-relief-of-displaced-iraqis

https://www.dinardaily.net/t56044-japan-gives-21-mn-to-promote-growth-in-iraq

https://www.dinardaily.net/t56234-tokyo-agrees-to-lend-baghdad-2-1-billion-to-develop-the-basra-refinery

https://www.dinardaily.net/t56016-china-donates-for-iraq-to-170-million-for-the-relief-of-displaced-people-of-mosul-and-fallujah

https://www.dinardaily.net/t56179-canada-pledges-358-million-to-iraq-for-humanitarian-crisis-economic-reform

https://www.dinardaily.net/t56166-italy-provided-a-grant-and-a-loan-for-iraq-worth-473-million

https://www.dinardaily.net/t56159-kuwaiti-aid-to-iraq-of-176-million

Hi Ramblernash,

This is a great list of links you have here. As I am clicking through them I noticed that most of these loans are in dollars and some in euros. We all know that in today's monetary system debt is monetized into currency. It appears that much of Iraq's debt is being monetized in dollars and euros. between these loans and the shrinking reserve supply I bet that would make up for any deficit spending they are doing.

What this means is this debt is not being monetized using Iraqi dinars through deficit spending using their central bank. Thus Iraq's debt is not adding to their money supply or very little of Iraq's debt accounts for their currency supply.

I am not really sure on this theory because I have not run any numbers but these links are interesting.

by **RamblerNash** Mon Jul 25, 2016 11:32 pm

MarcusCurtis wrote:
RamblerNash wrote:
MarcusCurtis wrote:
jrg wrote:
Jayzze wrote:what jwflatt stated is probably very true the arab merchants thru centuries are very cunning and know how to get the most out of people and countries. look at how much they borrow then look at how much they ever repay back. look at all the foolish countries lending them money under the pretext they will charge there gov as well as revalue there currency. what a freaken joke.
No "country" is ever going to fall for the RV scam.
Actually, countries have already fallen for it in 1993. Iraq closed their borders and invalidated all the swiss dinar outside their border in 1993. They did trade deals with Jordan and other countries in the region. After a few weeks passed, they opened up their borders again.

Iraq basically told these countries that as soon as sanctions are lifted then their currency will be worth more money. They used this ploy to trade with Jordon at the time. Let me know if you want the information on that.

I think that no country will ever fall for this RV scam again. but it has happened in the past.

If Iraq is going to RV their currency, as the Guru's say they are, they wouldn't need all these loans and donations from all these countries.

https://www.dinardaily.net/t56162-26-state-of-iraq-awarded-two-billion-dollars

https://www.dinardaily.net/t56242-eu-allocates-114-million-for-the-relief-of-displaced-iraqis

https://www.dinardaily.net/t56044-japan-gives-21-mn-to-promote-growth-in-iraq

https://www.dinardaily.net/t56234-tokyo-agrees-to-lend-baghdad-2-1-billion-to-develop-the-basra-refinery

https://www.dinardaily.net/t56016-china-donates-for-iraq-to-170-million-for-the-relief-of-displaced-people-of-mosul-and-fallujah

https://www.dinardaily.net/t56179-canada-pledges-358-million-to-iraq-for-humanitarian-crisis-economic-reform

https://www.dinardaily.net/t56166-italy-provided-a-grant-and-a-loan-for-iraq-worth-473-million

https://www.dinardaily.net/t56159-kuwaiti-aid-to-iraq-of-176-million
Hi Ramblernash,

This is a great list of links you have here. As I am clicking through them I noticed that most of these loans are in dollars and some in euros. We all know that in today's monetary system debt is monetized into currency. It appears that much of Iraq's debt is being monetized in dollars and euros. between these loans and the shrinking reserve supply I bet that would make up for any deficit spending they are doing.

What this means is this debt is not being monetized using Iraqi dinars through deficit spending using their central bank. Thus Iraq's debt is not adding to their money supply or very little of Iraq's debt accounts for their currency supply.

I am not really sure on this theory because I have not run any numbers but these links are interesting.

Yep! Quite a bit on money that's not coming out of their budget.

Think about all the money that they would have to spend if US and other countries didn't pitch in to help with the fight with the ISIS issue.

If only Iraq would RV that currency, they could pay for all this themselves!

Oh wait...They need to gain a massive amount of reserves to do that!...Nevermind...

by jrg Tue Jul 26, 2016 1:54 am

Hey Marcus,
True enough I haven't been back over to IQW to check for a reply so didn't notice. I'll get over to it, but I'll just reply here (better editing).

I know you say that there are not enough American dealers to account for an export of 30 trillion, By my calculations American dealers probably account for 4 to 5 trillion dinar. Dinar Trade was the biggest dealer and Ali himself said that he has had over a billion in dinar sales. That was on a conference call. Sam I am has more information on it.

If there were 5T in US IQD sales that has to be 6B USD worth (with the 20% markup), so that's 9 more dealers as big as Sterling. Where are they? Yea I'm sure Ali says he sold 1B USD worth, but the Feds charged him with $600M USD and I'll take their analysis over Ali's bragging.

The problem with this calculation stems from the fact that we are only using America for a basis of global dinar sales. The dinar is sold globally to private investors set up by dealers all over the world. Dinar Trade was even set up in Europe. But you could buy dinar locally from all over the world. American dealers were not the only ones pedaling this thing.

I'm sure there were dealers outside the US, but I haven't found any. If you search from googles UK site they don't show up. So its very hard for me to believe there are enough to account for such huge sums.

I remember back when I discovered this was a redenomination and not a revalue. I went over many of the same Iraqi articles. According to the press in Iraq the dollar is used for a major transaction because they don’t need to bring as much physical cash. It was easier to facilitate these transactions.

This might be so, but I don't think it can be as wildly lopsided as you claim. M0 is < 40T IQD (see note about M0 and M1 below) so if 30 or 35 of that is not in the country, its a lot more than just big transactions that are being paid for in USD. How is that USD being replaced when it wears out (ten yours would be about 6x the expected life time of a bill in this country and Iraq seems a lot harsher).

No one has said that the total growth of M0 is because they have been selling dinar to stupid westerners. We have been talking about money outside of banks. M0 is a bigger number. Today Iraq's money outside of banks is around 39 trillion while their M0 is 59 Trillion. Their M1 is over 69 trillion while their M2 is 86 Trillion. Source = Central bank of Iraq and Trading economics

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/iraq/money-supply-m0

Is it? Note that the CBI does not report an M0 line in their data, just currency outside of banks, M1, and M2 (at least that I have ever found). I don't know what the site you offered is using for M0 but based on their definition as "Iraq Money Supply M0 is the most liquid measure of the money supply including coins and notes in circulation and other assets that are easily convertible into cash. Money Supply M0 and M1, are also known as narrow money. " seems wrong to me. M0 is ONLY cash, M1 is M0 + any asset easily converted into cash.

There is no possible way that Iraq can add an average of 3 trillion a year to their local money supply for 5 years straight and still maintain inflation rates anywhere from 2 to 6 percent a year. It should be in the double digits if not almost in the triple digits. There is no other way to account for this except for them to export their currency or lie about massive inflation rates. I believe they are exporting it.

Their GDP was growing at 10-20% during this period, their money supply would have to go up to keep pace with that. Plus they had large trade surpluses during this time which has to increase the money supply and reserves. Of course many things are going on at once so you can't see the effect of any one factor unless you account for them all which is far more work than I am prepared to attempt, even if its possible given the source of data we have.

As far as deficit spending adding to the money supply goes, I will admit that I have not looked at any of those numbers in over 3 years. So I have not done an analysis myself, but maybe a shrinking reserve supply will account for any deficit spending instead of monetizing debt through their central bank. Not sure on that. Just a hunch.

The loans they are getting (that RamblerNash listed) only look to amount to about $5B USD so not nearly enough to deal with the budget shortfalls. So the CBI is (I presume) buying GOI bonds in IQD to supply the budget so that is a direct add to the money supply. How much of the loans are being exchanged for IQD would be much harder to determine, but even if its none, the amount isn't that big.

by jrg Tue Jul 26, 2016 3:00 am

Actually, countries have already fallen for it in 1993. Iraq closed their borders and invalidated all the swiss dinar outside their border in 1993. They did trade deals with Jordan and other countries in the region. After a few weeks passed, they opened up their borders again.

Iraq basically told these countries that as soon as sanctions are lifted then their currency will be worth more money. They used this ploy to trade with Jordon at the time. Let me know if you want the information on that.

I think that no country will ever fall for this RV scam again. but it has happened in the past.

When I say the "RV Scam" I mean the claim that Iraq will raise the value of the IQD significantly higher than allowed by their foreign reserves. Any finance minster or bank executive knows that is not possible. So no I do not believe any country fell for the RV scam. Did Saddam convince Jordan that he would raise the value of the iQD allow some trade deal that Jordon would not have otherwise done? Maybe, but no way could the value Jordon was talked into using be in the "RV" range, bankers are just not that ignorant of how currency works.

by **Kevind53** Tue Jul 26, 2016 8:17 am

jrg wrote:How is that USD being replaced when it wears out (ten yours would be about 6x the expected life time of a bill in this country and Iraq seems a lot harsher).

Umm ... not really ...from the FRB website https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/how-long-is-the-life-span-of-us-paper-money.htm

by **MarcusCurtis** Tue Jul 26, 2016 8:27 am

Hi JRG

Replying here is fine. I think that we are having a great discussion. Wordpress does not allow for comment editing and that is a huge drawback. It's ok if you want to keep the discussion going on over here instead. That gives us both the advantage of editing our mistakes or changing and making corrections shortly after we comment. Much of my comment and response was copied and pasted over here.

I will respond to your points as soon as I can. It is going to take some time and I don't have time right now. but this has turned into a very good discussion.

by jrg Tue Jul 26, 2016 11:01 am

thanks Kevin, I thought it was much less. The difference in lifespan must be from how much each denomination is used, since its all the same paper. So the most heavily used denominations in Iraq (if there really is $30B floating around) would be about 2x there lifespan by now. So still a problem but not as big a one as I thought. Though again Iraq might be a harsher environment.

by **Kevind53** Tue Jul 26, 2016 8:17 pm

The difference in lifespan must be from how much each denomination is used, since its all the same paper.

Exactly, and that, in part anyway, is why we see countries starting to print their currency on plastic substrate, and why Iraq is looking at doing the same.

by **MarcusCurtis** Tue Jul 26, 2016 11:54 pm

JRG wrote:If there were 5T in US IQD sales that has to be 6B USD worth (with the 20% markup), so that's 9 more dealers as big as Sterling. Where are they? Yea I'm sure Ali says he sold 1B USD worth, but the Feds charged him with $600M USD and I'll take their analysis over Ali's bragging.

I know that Ali through dinar Trade was the largest dealer. The Feds charged him with $600 million in USD? I guess I missed this. Where did you see that? Do you have a link? I know before he closed down the first time he was well over a billion according to other sources. In my calculations, I just rounded to a billion. I would take the Feds word too if I could see a link to the feds comment.

JRG wrote:I'm sure there were dealers outside the US, but I haven't found any. If you search from googles UK site they don't show up. So its very hard for me to believe there are enough to account for such huge sums.

In a years time, Iraq Currency Watch got traffic from 120 countries around the world. 2016 is already going to outpace 2015. Discounting for bots in order to index our site, traffic has been pretty good. The top 10 countries have been in order, United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Malaysia, Brazil, Pakistan, Singapore, Russia, and Germany is number 10.

Now let's say I want to search for dinar sites in Malaysia. It is number 5 on our list. The best way to do that would be to conduct a search in the native language of Malaysia. When we type that into the search engine look what happens. 13,000 results and many blogs pumping the dinar.

https://www.google.com/search?q=Dinar+Iraq+akan+menilai+semula&ie=&oe=

This dinar scam is bigger than a lot of people realize!

JRG wrote:This might be so, but I don't think it can be as wildly lopsided as you claim. M0 is < 40T IQD (see note about M0 and M1 below) so if 30 or 35 of that is not in the country, its a lot more than just big transactions that are being paid for in USD. How is that USD being replaced when it wears out (ten yours would be about 6x the expected life time of a bill in this country and Iraq seems a lot harsher).

I think Kevin already answered how long this currency would last. I am not familiar with the replacement process.

JRG wrote:Is it? Note that the CBI does not report an M0 line in their data, just currency outside of banks, M1, and M2 (at least that I have ever found). I don't know what the site you offered is using for M0 but based on their definition as "Iraq Money Supply M0 is the most liquid measure of the money supply including coins and notes in circulation and other assets that are easily convertible into cash. Money Supply M0 and M1, are also known as narrow money. " seems wrong to me. M0 is ONLY cash, M1 is M0 + any asset easily converted into cash.

The Site I offered was Trading Economics. Trading Economics is a highly respected economics site that provides economic data on almost all governments and central banks around the world. I am actually surprised you don't know about it because they come up often in the search engine when I am looking for data. I know of a few economist that use this site often. The data is pretty reliable.

What is 'M0'

"M0 is a measure of the money supply which combines any liquid or cash assets held within a central bank and the amount of physical currency circulating in the economy. In the United Kingdom, the M0 supply is also referred to as narrow money."

Read more:M0 Definition | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/m0.asp#ixzz4FZbQD81l

I am pretty sure this would not be too hard to figure out while looking over all the financial data. Trading economics says they get their information directly from the Iraqi Central bank here is the quote,

“Money Supply M0 in Iraq increased to 59882 IQD Billion in May from 59167 IQD Billion in April of 2016. Money Supply M0 in Iraq averaged 41539.63 IQD Billion from 2003 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 73259 IQD Billion in December of 2013 and a record low of 6708 IQD Billion in December of 2003. Money Supply M0 in Iraq is reported by the Central Bank of Iraq.”

According To Trading Economics, the M0 is over 59 trillion!

JRG wrote:Their GDP was growing at 10-20% during this period, their money supply would have to go up to keep pace with that. Plus they had large trade surpluses during this time which has to increase the money supply and reserves. Of course many things are going on at once so you can't see the effect of any one factor unless you account for them all which is far more work than I am prepared to attempt, even if its possible given the source of data we have.

You used a Trading Economics link to support your point. I knew you would like the site once you saw it. You do realize that this chart shows the amount of USD in billions that flow through the country from oil sales which accounts for 95 percent of their exports right? So to say that there is a limited supply of USD is not accurate. Notice the biggest increase was during the height of the dinar scam. Hmmmm. ok here is your link.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/iraq/gdp

This is one way to calculate GDP but let's look at the actual annual percentage of growth.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/iraq/gdp-growth-annual

As you can see, the only year it was over 10 percent growth was in 2012. Every other year it was below 10 percent. That is not even close to a high enough GDP rate to absorb 15 trillion dinar released into the local population resulting in low inflation rates. This does not answer the inflation rate equation. Iraq had low inflation because they exported a lot of currency.

Here is the annual GDP according to Trading Economics 2009 5.81 percent, 2010 5.86 percent, 2011 8.58 percent 2012 13.9 percent 2013 6.6 percent and 2014 -2.1 percent

This is the same period Iraq released 15 trillion into their economy. There is no way Iraq had 20 percent GDP in any year!

JRG wrote:The loans they are getting (that RamblerNash listed) only look to amount to about $5B USD so not nearly enough to deal with the budget shortfalls. So the CBI is (I presume) buying GOI bonds in IQD to supply the budget so that is a direct add to the money supply. How much of the loans are being exchanged for IQD would be much harder to determine, but even if its none, the amount isn't that big.

Fair enough but don't forget that Iraq has also been spending their reserves. They have already reduced their reserves by billions. Just out of curiosity I decided to look and see if Iraq was selling bonds. I found out that they are selling bonds. I found out that they started to sell local bonds in 2016 and it was the first time since 2003 that they have done this.

"Iraq's central bank said it plans to sell 1.5 trillion Iraqi dinars ($1.27 billion) in two-year government bonds, as part of an effort to plug a deficit caused by tumbling oil prices and the costs of fighting an Islamic State insurgency.

It will be the first such sale to the public since 2003, when Saddam Hussein's regime was overthrown, and is the first tranche of a 5 trillion-dinar bond plan announced in January, central bank media relations official, Acer Jabbar,said."

http://www.reuters.com/article/mideast-economy-iraq-bonds-idUSL5N16I2HH

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