Tlar speaks . What we know and What it means

Tlar speaks - 12-30 Post 

The Iraqi Stock Market has been closed on the 29th of Dec and will not re-open until the 11th. The budget has been agreed to but it too will not be voted on until around the same time period but will be made retroactive to the January 1st. 

Articles have come out stating that the provinces, who for the first time will be managing their own affairs and projects under the new Federation Laws, will be funded with the opening of the budget in January. The HCL is also agreed to in full by both the Kurds and Baghdad. 

The HCL is revenue sharing and it is based on the budget. It tells all sects how much they will get out of the oil revenues and how they will be paid. 

The HCL is scheduled to go into effect around the first of the year and must come before the budget is opened


 We know that a basket of new laws opening their country up to global investment that have already had 2 readings meaning they only need a vote, are ready to go.

 We know that great preparations have been made for months on a National Reconciliation meeting that is to take place next Saturday. Dignitaries from around the country and globe will be in attendance. .

So IMO it looks as though we are looking at sometime up until the 11th of January or just before to see monetary change in Iraq.

We know new coins (fils) and the smalls have been minted because the CBI has told us so in articles.

We know the coins were distributed to the banks because of articles stating the CBI held a special auction for them.

We know Shabibi has been acquitted and Abadi has discussed bringing him back to head the CBI.

 We know Shabibi is the author of the plan to delete the zeros.

We know that in 2012 in Washington that Shabibi, when asked about the monetary change by a group of potential investors, said this would be a raise in value, not a lop. What does all this mean?

I think we are looking at Iraq going global in January as they themselves have stated in many articles. They need a currency to complete their transition.

So I am expecting monetary change in Iraq between now and just before their stock market re-opens.

 It can happen at anytime. IMO the change will occur just before the budget is passed and opened.

IMO no funding will take place from the 2015 budget until the currency changes. I personally believe that Iraq will not miss this opportunity.

 The Abadi government for the first time has called for the CBI to speed up deleting the zeros. This is much different from the previous government who continued to be apposed to any change or taking the dinar international.

The government has acknowledged that the Central Bank of Iraq is independent and that the government will seek no loans from the CBI.

This is a CBI decision alone, but the CBI and the Abadi government are working together to make this happen and it is my opinion that the government and the CBI are ready to see this go.

What is deleting the zeros?

The CBI themselves under Shabibi stated the zeros would be deleted off the nominal value giving purchasing power to the currency. The finance committee stated the "leading zeros" would be deleted.

We only find leading zeros on the exchange rate, not the currency itself.


In 2010 Shabibi presented to parliament laws he wanted passed which would penalize any street vendor who knowingly takes advantage of a customer on the first day. 

These laws are only meaningful if the currency value changes quickly. In other words if the 1 dinar is equal to the 1000 dinar as in a lop, it would be hard pressed to gouge anyone.

 But if the 1 is only one of 1000 and an apple that yesterday cost 1000 dinars but today only cost one dinar, a uninformed customer that has been buying apples everyday, might be inclined to think that apple is still 1000 dinars. 

The vendor could easily take advantage of this customer on day one. So Shabibi wanted laws passed to protect the consumer from being taken advantage of by punishing the vendor if he tries this. 

It was a major concern in 2010 - 2012 of Shabibi's. So if Shabibi stated in 2012 at an investor meeting that this is not a lop, then it has to be what they stated all along. It is an increase in the exchange rate of the dinar.

So what is the rate if they remove the leading zeros? 

By removing the zeros you would come to the natural conclusion that the rate would be .86 to one dollar, right? Deleting the zeros of the exchange rate does not necessarily mean 86 cents.

It only implies the zeros are gone. So the rate can be 86 or a number greater than because removing the zeros is not definitive as to value. The only thing it tells use is the zeros will be gone. 

With that I will leave you with this thought. Abadi has turned out to be the Ronald Reagan of the middle East. He has accomplished more for Iraq in the 3 months he has been in office that Maliki did in the last eight years.

 He is bringing pride back to the Iraqi's. He has repaired relationships both between the sects and in the surrounding countries. He has brought Iraq back to fiscal responsibility and he WILL bring riches and prosperity to the country in the next few years.

 He is a doer out to fix the problems quickly. He has proven to be a great politician and statesman. What a relief after the last government (mafia).  Tlar

I have learned to put waders on when reading this old guys post

What has been signed between Erbil and Baghdad is a TEMPORARY one year agreement splitting out 17% of the budget to Kurdistan.  Kurdistan then agrees to supply somewhere around 300,000 bbl to Iraq for their purposes and allows Kurdistan to export another approximately 350,000 bbl themselves through the pipeline.

Yeah, it sounds a lot like what has been speculated on for the HCL, but folks, it's merely a 1 year agreement.

I admire Tlar's ability to take ambiguous and disconnected bits of information and weave them into a grand playbook that ultimately ends with all of us rich.

Nice try on trying to convince folks that the lop is on the exchange rate and not the currency itself.  Not buying that either

Tlar has missed the boat for the last 6 mouths completely , Some day he'll get lucky

That 'ol dump only has one oar in the water, anyway- Always rowing in circles-

Some reasonable arguments unfortunately leading to incorrect conclusions.

Willful suspension of reality

And knowingly trying to pass the buck-

Thanks Tom Larson from Texas, but there are too many of us that are on to who and what you are.