New York Times: Maliki fell into the trap and lost .. reference

New York Times: Maliki fell into the trap and lost .. reference


05/02/2014

Baghdad / New York Times

Tim Arango and Michael Gordon

When well-known journalist was killed at a checkpoint here (in Baghdad) last month, Prime Minister al-Maliki rushed to the scene, and spoke in front of a TV camera vowing “blood-for-blood.”
However, in the city where the cast of hundreds die every month as a result of the bombings or shooting, it was strange that the Prime Minister focused on the killing of an individual. But this scene, which comes identical to another similar incident before the previous elections, was a clear indication of what he said about the diplomats and analysts is the best and last-Maliki hopes to win the premiership for a third term.

Maliki tried to play the role of tough guy, which he used Iraqis, whatever the situation, to see upon their leaders. He says Salah al-Rubaie, 46 years old university professor in Baghdad, al-Maliki, who described the man wise and strong and great leader, “al-Maliki, a strong man.” The strategy gives show of force Maliki Shia voters, but doubts about his ability to win by can get another state.
The defeat of al-Maliki will receive a great welcome from American officials; having found evaluations U.S. intelligence that the re-election of al-Maliki will exacerbate sectarian tensions and raise at the same time the risk of civil war, Mstdelan on he concentrated power in his hand, and his failure to reconcile with the Iraqi factions – a year or Kurds – and failing military action against armed militants.

During his work, accused the army, which was trained by U.S. forces, by human rights groups accusations of serious during operations against insurgents and opponents of the Maliki government, which included torture and arbitrary arrest of the year, and demand bribes for the release of detainees.
And designed a long list of political rivals seeking to oust him. Judging by the kind of claims for “change”, it loses the support of Shiite religious authorities in Najaf, who have great spiritual power to the Shiite majority in Iraq. While acknowledging many Iraqis, in their desire strong leadership, they also said they are tired of the violence and the political stalemate under the rule of al-Maliki.
But al-Maliki hopes of improved six months ago, when it achieved a limited number of concrete achievements which can lean on them. It has enabled him to heavy fighting against insurgents in Anbar province and other parts of the country to play the role of the commander of the war and present himself to the leader of the Shiite majority and the existential battle, which he described stark sectarian terms.

He says Ezzat Shabandar, was a Shiite politician allied with al-Maliki in the past, but he ran an independent: “All the factors working in his favor.” In reference to the crisis in Anbar, which failed the military campaign Maliki, Western diplomats said: “Obviously, it will raise his chances of election.”
Maliki will face strong opposition during his struggle to stay in power. Political experts are expected to get a majority of seats, but it will not be able to get a majority, which included getting his third term. The negotiations will begin after the elections closed rooms, which will be mainly between Maliki and Shiite rivals, and will see the participation of the leaders of the Sunnis and Kurds as well. It is expected to be a post-election period and a long bus with lots of chaos and long, and atypical in Iraq, and experts expect this time will be longer than its predecessor, and may extend for a year.

According to reports by U.S. intelligence to Iran, which was the strongest supporter of the owners in the promotion of his authority in recent years, perhaps supporting the re-election, millions of dollars. But Iran also paid money to some of his rivals in the Shia to show Iran’s goal to maintain the largest Shiite domination and not necessarily the rule of al-Maliki.

The Miz-Maliki, who rarely smiles and lacks any of the features of virtual charisma, the same for Iraqi politicians to work for long hours, and often leaves his office at one o’clock in the morning. He rarely leaves Iraq, where his family staying at a time when many of the transfer of Iraqi politicians to their families abroad.

He says the former U.S. ambassador in Baghdad, Zalmay Khalilzad: “He does not care about the issues of the protocol, and does not have a problem to come to my residence or office.” He adds, Khalilzad said al-Maliki However, it is concerned about the possibility of the former Baath Party officials coup.

Khalilzad, al-Maliki is encouraged to run for the post of prime minister in 2006, after making sure that his predecessor, Ibrahim al-Jaafari, does not have the competence and sectarian excessively. In 2010, al-Maliki won a second term with the support of U.S. officials, who believed that he would win anyway, and it seemed clear that the candidate most acceptable to the majority Shiite split.
In an attempt to bridge the political divide and Iraq’s sectarian and protect it from the tyranny of the growing al-Maliki, the Obama administration has sought to persuade Maliki to share power with his arch rival, Iyad Allawi, who was the leader of the Bloc supported by a large segment of the year. But the attempt failed, al-Maliki never not been able to form a government, which had hoped the overall where the White House.

And identifies personal Maliki, formed through decades of political work to overthrow the secret regime of Saddam Hussein, to a large extent his style of governance. Maliki has assumed in exile in Iran and Syria, the responsibility for the military operations of the Shiite Islamic Dawa Party in Iraq, that experience infused in the same permanent paranoid feeling that deepened because of the constant threat of assassination.

Says Maria Vantapi, Iraq analyst at the International Crisis Group: “I think the core of the problem is fear, he sees enemies everywhere, maybe they are Kurds or Sunnis or even his advisers.” In turn, sees symbolic Mardini, an Iraq expert at the “Atlantic Council” that “Maliki is not democratic, not a nationalist nor a sectarian ideology .. Vaqidth based on survival, which is similar with many of the Arab leaders in the sense of greatness and conspiracy.”
In Jnajh village, the birthplace of al-Maliki in southern Iraq, garbage strewn across the irrigation canal that takes place near the home of the ailing which was home to his childhood. The village looks like any other village in Iraq in terms of poverty and unemployment, and with no clear indication of the use of vast oil wealth in the country.

He says thanks Jabbour, one of the sons uncles Maliki: “I did not give anything to see .. garbage.” Jabbour and indicates that the state of the village to show that al-Maliki has the largest concerns. He added: “I tell you, frankly, when you look at this neighborhood, you look to any other place in Iraq.” Despite the discomfort many of what they described as al-Maliki of trying to build a family dynasty, remember that the Iraqis inevitably legacy of Saddam Hussein, he gave his son, Ahmed, broad powers, and vague on security within the Prime Minister’s Office and inside the Green Zone. Two daughters and a husband working in his office, the two candidates in the election.

Despite all this, Latif Rashid, a senior adviser in the office of Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, says that many within the political process in Iraq believe that Maliki will find a way to stay in power for another term. Rashid said that the indicators – anecdotal, at best, due to the lack of reliable data for the voting process in Iraq – to suggest that al-Maliki has strong support among Iraqis, partly because of a reluctance to change leaders at a time when the country’s growing insurgency.

It seemed clear that al-Maliki has a strong position, despite the fact that the development of the country and rally against competitors puzzling, according to Rashid. He said: “There are a lot of things that I do not understand. Did you realize why these people to blow themselves? Do you realize why these people blow up a car bomb in a school?”.
uragency.net