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Contrasting the Iraqi Dinar – Revaluation or Redenomination by Baghdad Invest
Author: Baghdad Invest |
Feb 01 2014
Iraqi Dinar Revaluation or Re-denomination?
A few weeks back we were asked to do a side by side type of post explaining what the two options are for the Iraqi dinar, which in this case we are looking at a revaluation or a re-denomination. Much research has been done on both sides and the argument is very much out as to which will be which but I am going to give my personal opinion as I see it and you can give your personal opinion below.
Disclaimer: I am not an economist, I am simply a person interested in the truth whether that be a revaluation of the currency or a straight forward re-denomination. Much of our posts of late have been about TNT Tony and some of the other “Dinar Gurus” but that is not because we don’t want to see a revaluation, it is because we see outright lies from them that we can all verify as being false.
These are opinions based on our research and knowledge of the Iraqi Dinar
Revaluation of the Iraqi Dinar
This is the best case scenario, Iraq revalues it’s currency from 1116 dinars per 1 USD to 1 dinar per $36 as is being touted by the many Guru’s who provide special inside information. But many accept a figure of around $3 so we are best to go with that.
Redenomination of the Iraqi Dinar
Not the ideal scenario for you currency speculators but could work out for the best. Iraq currently uses bank notes such as the 10,000 or even 25,000 note. Iraq conducts a redenomination by taking 3 of the zeroes away from the bank note and giving you a period of time to exchange the old notes for the freshly printed notes.
Why Iraq might revalue it's currency?
Typically revalues are done to address inflation. It is meant to keep low inflation in check only pegged currencies like the dinar can revalue. by increasing the value you increase the purchasing power of the currency. Increasing that above a certain percentage will have devastating effects. It could even bring about hyper-inflation and collapse the currency. Any pegged currency can hyper-inflate if the value is greatly increased.
Why Iraq might do a redenomination of it's currency?
Redenominations are done to address hyper-inflation. In this case it would address hyper-inflation during the years 1987-1995. Hyper-inflation comes because of overprinting of the currency. Redenominations are done both during hyper-inflation and years after hyper-inflation once the currency has become stable. Redenominations drastically reduce the money supply. They can be applied to pegged and floating currencies.
Why I think the redenomination is the most likely option?
Iraq has publicly stated that is to be the intention on numerous occasions and in most cases this is what has happened with countries in a similar situation around the world.
Does Iraq have to do anything?
No. Life functions as normal, after all they are just numbers on a piece of paper/ on the screen at the bank. Today you would use your 25,000 bank note to buy a few groceries and tomorrow you would use the 25 dinar bank note to buy the same groceries meaning there is no effect on purchasing power which concludes nobody lost or gained.
Is it financially viable to revalue?
Iraq only has $1.2bn worth of gold. If you tried to “back 85tn Dinar” solely with that, you’d end up with an equivalent $ rate of 70833:1 (60x LESS)! As for “backing the Dinar with oil”, Iraq may have 140bn barrels of oil (which at $100 oil price = $14tn assets) – BUT that $14tn worth of oil is going to be spread over the next 127 years in the form of 3.0m barrels per day actual production. If Iraq increases exports to 4m barrels, that $14tn of oil will still be spread over the next 96 years.
What about pegging the IQD to it's reserves?
If you want a hedge against inflation, you don’t peg your currency to an asset which shrinks each year (oil) as that’s exactly the same long-term effect as printing too much fiat money and not having the resources t back it.
What are my biggest fears?
I am afraid Iraq will do what it did during the 30 days it gave to exchange the Iraqi dinar for the new dinars, the ones you have now. This was done over 30 days at the end of 2003/ beginning of 2004. This was done by the coalition provisional authority (CPA) which is made up of countries like the United States, United Kingdom and their allies which was formed to take out the government of Saddam Hussein. The CPA was in control of the issuance of the new Iraqi Dinar and gave 30 days to exchange within the borders of Iraq, no questions asked, free of charge. After the 30 days were up, any of the previous bank notes became null and void and I fear Iraq will simply do a redenomination and end up giving a similar time frame and again doing it in country only meaning those without the ability to get their bank notes to Iraq for exchange will end up with a pile of worthless paper. Don’t believe me? Read this link and then realize America etc were in control then and today America is not
How could you still make money?
If Iraq completes a redenomination and you are able to exchange for the newly issued legal tender then I think Iraq could eventually go into a float scenario but I would expect this to be heavily managed in order to maintain stability bearing in mind the very volatile political stability within Iraq, monetary instability would be the last thing she needs so I think it is reasonable to expect 3 or 4% gains per annum at best but this is on the basis that it is actually a float which I wouldn’t expect until after a few years the redenomination having taken place.
Why I think a 100,000% revaluation is a joke?
The 100,000% increase sounds spectacular and no doubt it must be given a percentage chance of happening because nothing is impossible in life. For 100,000% to happen I would liken it to a miracle which at best places this idea as absurd especially when you consider that no country in history has ever revalued above 50%
When will we see a Redenomination?
It is said that we will see it happen by March but I am not fussed with when it will happen or even if it will happen because Iraq is able to do business just fine the way it is. Some members of parliament say it will be by this date and others are quick to refute it as is the case in all political merry-go-round circuses throughout the world.
But the CIA control Iraq and have the final say etc
Yes, I have no doubt as to the level of influence of the far reaching arm of the American Government and those of the Rothschild & co but I think it is a feel good factor to say ahh but that stacks in our favour. In reality Iraq is going the other way and partnering up with those countries who resist American influence. Iraq is free to chose the best deal when seeking goods and services and currently China, Russia and Iran all offer quality without the added BS that comes with dealing with American politics. Also I think it is worthy to note that a Shi’ite led government will always be in favour of Iran. I mention this because many still think America has full control over what Iraq does and does not do but in reality to power struggle has tilted in favour of the other side.
What if Iraq revalues?
You made history! The biggest percentage increase ever on a currency investment which will lead to you no doubt cruising the Caribbean and every person who had the fluke of buying $900 worth of dinars living beyond their wildest dreams.
I think we must remember this has to be about Iraq and what serves the Government of Iraq and it’s people best. Foreign interests are important but in this case the country would have to do what is best for it’s own.
Special thanks go to Marcus Curtis at Iraq Currency Watch, Jack a reader at Baghdad Invest and all of the fantastic people who inspire me to continue writing despite being told I have an agenda, paid by the CBI, trying to get people to buy shares on the ISX etc… none of that is true.
But the CBI are welcome to drop some cash my way (that is not and never will be a solicitation for donors) We get by, by having ads on the site which bring enough money to expand and spend on things like forum software, which will be coming very soon. The alternative is I spend out of my own pocket but why do that when there is enough traffic to pay for itself.
Ladies & Gentleman, we all have an opinion but it is nicer if we respectfully disagree rather than launch personal attacks by way of defending our dreams. I sincerely hope Iraq will revalue, I would be seriously rich by virtue of having assets in Baghdad but I do not hold out hope for that happening but I shall respect some of you will.
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Not sure, but I do know that their statement that it was set by the Iraqis is incorrect. It was set by the Coalition Provisional Authority under Paul Bremer.
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