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Poncho from Stage 2 Omega says it is time for a reality check !  DinarDailyUpdates?bg=330099&fg=FFFFFF&anim=1

Poncho from Stage 2 Omega says it is time for a reality check !

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Poncho from Stage 2 Omega says it is time for a reality check !  Empty Poncho from Stage 2 Omega says it is time for a reality check !

Post by Ponee on Thu Oct 17, 2013 7:19 pm

Poncho -- From stage2omega
 
October 17, 2013 at 6:57pm
 
OK -- time for a reality check.
 
There's absolutely zero legitimate reasons the Iraqi currency would undergo a large increase in value. It's incredibly unlikely it'll even go up 50% over the next decade, let alone the 100,000% in the next week that most of these guru's are spouting.
 
Iraq's currency is worth right about what it should be. There are two VERY simple ways to prove this:
 
1. Divide their foreign reserves (80 billion USD in value at most) by their money supply (M2, around 75 trillion dinar) and you get about 0.001. Right around what their currency is worth. That isn't a coincidence.
 
2. Take the TOTAL value of Iraq's currency (their 75 trillion M2 multiplied by the value of each dinar, 0.0086) and you come up with about 65 billion dollars. Now look at their GDP. It's around 120 billion dollars. That's about a .5 ratio of M2 to GDP. Now look at that same ratio for neighboring countries. They'll all be about the same, somewhere between .4 and .7 or so.
 
Iraq's country is worth right about what it should be. Sure, it could go up 10 or 15 or 20%. That will leave most people, that paid spreads of 20 or 30 or 50%+, high and dry. The chance of the dinar increasing in real value by even 100% in the short term is zero.

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More from Poncho


Einstein dies and goes to heaven only to be informed that his room is not yet ready. "I hope you will not mind waiting in a dormitory. We are very sorry, but it's the best we can do and you will have to share the room with others" he is told by the doorman.

Einstein says that this is no problem at all and that there is no need to make such a great fuss. So the doorman leads him to the dorm. They enter and Albert is introduced to all of the present inhabitants. "See, Here is your first room mate. He has an IQ of 180!"


"Why that's wonderful!" Says Albert. "We can discuss mathematics!"

"And here is your second room mate. His IQ is 150!"


"Why that's wonderful!" Says Albert. "We can discuss physics!"

"And here is your third room mate. His IQ is 100!"

"That Wonderful! We can discuss the latest plays at the theater!"

Just then another man moves out to capture Albert's hand and shake it. "I'm your last room mate and I'm sorry, but my IQ is only 80."

Albert smiles back at him and says, "So, where do you think the dinar RV is headed?"

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Poncho from Stage 2 Omega says it is time for a reality check !  Empty Re: Poncho from Stage 2 Omega says it is time for a reality check !

Post by Ponee on Thu Oct 17, 2013 7:27 pm

 Poncho is going to have his own comedy show..... Here is more from Poncho




Logic of a Dinarian.

A party of dinarian's was climbing in the Alps . After several hours they became hopelessly lost. One of them studied the map for some time, turning it up and down, sighting on distant landmarks, consulting his compass, and finally the sun.

Finally he said, ' OK see that big mountain over there?'

'Yes', answered the others eagerly.

'Well, according to the map, we're standing on top of it.'

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Post by PALMER01 on Thu Oct 17, 2013 8:36 pm

Oh, this guy is funny.  NOT.
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Post by Ponee on Thu Oct 17, 2013 8:45 pm

@PALMER01 wrote:Oh, this guy is funny.  NOT.
I always wonder about posters like that.  Do they own dinar? And if not, then why are they on dinar sites?

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Post by Kevind53 on Thu Oct 17, 2013 11:05 pm

@Poncho wrote:1. Divide their foreign reserves (80 billion USD in value at most) by their money supply (M2, around 75 trillion dinar) and you get about 0.001. Right around what their currency is worth. That isn't a coincidence.

2. Take the TOTAL value of Iraq's currency (their 75 trillion M2 multiplied by the value of each dinar, 0.0086) and you come up with about 65 billion dollars. Now look at their GDP. It's around 120 billion dollars. That's about a .5 ratio of M2 to GDP. Now look at that same ratio for neighboring countries. They'll all be about the same, somewhere between .4 and .7 or so.

Iraq's country is worth right about what it should be. Sure, it could go up 10 or 15 or 20%. That will leave most people, that paid spreads of 20 or 30 or 50%+, high and dry. The chance of the dinar increasing in real value by even 100% in the short term is zero.
Apples to apples not oranges. The USA has 146B USD in foreign reserves to Iraq's 80B. Our M2 money supply is about 10T USD. Theirs is about 85T IQD, or roughly 65B USD. I am no economist, but to me, if you are following the figures above, the dinar about 150X what it's worth.... assuming my math is correct.

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