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»  Minister of Transport: We do not have authority over any airport in Iraq
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SMOKE and MIRRORS?? I Think Not...

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Post by dan4588 Wed Dec 21, 2011 6:31 am

Are you ready for a dose of REALITY?

We are in the holiday season and considering the fact that Christmas is less than a week away, I thought I might bring another perspective to this outrageous adventure we've all embarked upon. We've heard all the scuttlebutt about how as the RV draws nigh we would begin to see a bunch of misinformation making its way through the news channels. We've also seen documents and news articles being recycled from months and years ago. That said however, I'd like to ask an honest question. Is it the powers that be that are misinforming us and/or leading us to believe that the revaluation of the Iraqi Dinar is just around the corner or are we being suckered in by individuals with a warped sense of humor, or individuals desperate to save face that will take any information they can grab, however unimportant or derogatory and try to spin it as a news flash of "blessings" to come.

I respect those intel gatherers who have given of themselves and devote so many hours to digging up the "skinny" as it were and hopefully, they're putting forth these tremendous efforts for all the right reasons. But, one has to consider the possibility that aside from their deep-throat contacts (who themselves, probably don't have a clue), the vast majority of these purported "Gurus" are just average Joes and Joans that are hanging on just a little too tight. So yes, I'm calling BS on the lot of them. Why? Because they're saying all the wrong things for all the wrong reasons.

My point is this. I would hazard to guess that more than just a few members here are not only pinning their hopes, dreams on this revaluation, they're also hoping to hang on long enough to see this RV come about before they lose their jobs, their homes or their cars. If, unfortunately, the latter fits your own particular situation, you might want to consider other alternatives to saving the family homestead.

We hear Iraqi government officials as well as officials from the Central Bank proclaiming that Iraq now has the strongest currency in the Middle East and the intel gatherers (Gurus) naturally want to spin that to mean that they have raised the value of their currency, i.e. a revaluation of the Dinar. ...Wrong! On economies of scale, if you consider the monetization of Iraq's assets (above and below ground) weighed against their debt and then factor in the pathetic programmed rate of exchange their currency is currently trading at, then yes, they may even have the strongest currency in the world, let alone the Middle East. However, the value of any currency irrespective of what assets may back that currency is also tied to a trust factor. Trading partners, be they countries, corporate or individual consumers have to give some consideration to the "Faith and Credit" of the issuing country. I for one, don't trust Iraqi's any further than I can throw one and as far as their credit goes, I wouldnt lend them the pen with which to sign the contract. And, where perception is reality, all said and done, the worth of their currency at present really is little more than decorative wallpaper.

Here's another one. "Iraq has to revalue their currency because their people are poor and starving". Friends, one has nothing to do with the other. The Dinar is worth what it's worth and it buys what it buys. The rate of exchange has NOTHING to do with their citizen's quality of life. For example, if a worker paid in Dinar is making a wage of $1,000.00 US/month, he/she is probably getting paid approximately 1,100,000 Dinar for their efforts. Currently, in Iraq a Coke costs about 1,000 Dinar. If the Dinar revalued to $3.50 Us per Dinar, that same Coke would only cost them about 30 Fils. But, after revaluation, what happens to the worker's wages? They will drop to a level commensurate with the new exchange rate. i.e. if the worker is still getting paid the equivalent of $1,000.00 US per month, in Dinar, his/her wages will drop to approximately 285.75 Dinar per month. Get it? Nothing really changes, their Dinar buys more than it did, but it's not like they're getting a pay raise, they're going to be getting paid fewer Dinar to compensate for the new exchange rate. Oh, and by the way, do you really think the government of Iraq gives a rat's a** about its people?

Try this one on for size.... "They have to revalue the Dinar because they can't make their budget if they don't". ...REALLY??!! Seriously?? I'm not even an economist and I can call BS on that one, also. Look, the budget is the budget and the Dinar is the Dinar. They are enumerated and worth what they are worth. We hear a figure of 112 Billion dollars bandied about. Okay, so their budget is 112 billion dollars. ...And that would have what... to do with the Dinar? If all they bring in for that fiscal year is 27 Billion dollars, then they have an 85 Billion dollar deficit, which will have to be made up with reserves or sold as debt. Now, I have a lot of respect for Randy Koonce and I really like listening to the guy, but with all due respect, his assessment of how the RV fills the budget gap is wrong. He says you divide the income into the budget figure and that gives you the amount the Dinar has to RV at to make their budget work. For example, if their budget is 112 Billion and all they take in is 27 Billion, if you divide 27 into 112 you get 4.14, or $4.14 US dollars is what they would have RV their currency at to fill the gap in their budget. Well, if they were getting paid in Dinar for their oil, albeit still flawed, you could almost make a case for that. But guess what? they get paid in Dollars. You see, the one universal constant in the oil business is that whether you're buying or selling oil, that oil is paid for in dollars, ...Petro dollars, as it were. So, if Iraq is getting paid in US dollars for the one domestic product that makes up 95% of their earnings, then how would a revaluation of the Dinar have any effect whatsoever on their budget deficits? Randy, I love you like a brother, but that dog won't hunt.

And now for the Pièce de résistance. All the pundits keep talking about how Iraq HAS to revalue their currency for this reason or for that reason. Well, I got news for ya'. Perhaps you've lost sight of the fact that back on June 30th of this year, the UN turned over to Iraq the DFI (food for oil) funds to the tune of approximately 180 Billion dollars. They also repatriated some 480 billion dollars in monies confiscated from the Saddam regime. All total, Iraq took possession of almost 700 Billion dollars in disposable cash, with no restraints; they can use that money for whatever they like. So, for all intents and purposes, given their current level of annual earnings and, if a revaluation of the Dinar was of any tangible benefit with regards to their budget (which it isn't), then Iraq could conceivably go another 8 years before having to give any consideration to a revaluation. Now, we all know and realize that such will not be the case for a miriad of reasons, but it is what it is. Iraq takes in Dollars, negotiates the dollar on the streets, and spends dollars. Given the current state of business over there, the Dinar is almost an afterthought. Pressure exerted by world powers and the IMF notwithstanding, Iraq can pretty much do whatever the heck they want. And, as we have pretty much seen of late, ...they will.

Now this post, is not meant to bash, malign or beat up on anyone. Rather, my sole purpose in bringing this is to provide some reasonable contrast and perspective to what the Gurus are putting out there. Do I believe in the revaluation of the Iraqi Dinar? Absolutely!! It just makes sense (whether or not it will make dollars is a question for another day). Trust me, I've got plenty of skin in this game, a lot more than most. What I don't have however, is any reasonable expectation that the revaluation is going to take place anytime soon. I hope and pray that I'm wrong, but for the continued sanity of those participants who are hanging on too tight and standing at the edge of the abyss, I pray that you will find other avenues to make due in the interim.

And, for all those Gurus out there that might stumble upon this thread and take umbrage regarding my statements, to you I say, "Fine, prove it". Don't talk to me about black suburbans, visitors in the night from the dark side, 3-letter agency crap and the like, that's too easy. Better yet, get the guy you're getting all this great and fast breaking intel from to prove it to you before you start ramping up the emotions of those who really have something to lose here. All this "It's happening tonight", "You'll see it tomorrow", "I can't tell you my source" crap is unconscionable, counter-productive and down right cruel. Better to just keep it to yourself and we'll all just be pleasantly surprised when it fianlly comes about. In the meantime however, I have adopted a new mantra: "The Dinar's Due in '22".

Merry Christmas everyone, have a safe and happy holiday.

Scott

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Post by openmind Wed Dec 21, 2011 6:51 am

summary?

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Post by gazza Wed Dec 21, 2011 6:56 am

starting to look bad

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Post by globalbiz Wed Dec 21, 2011 7:12 am

dan4588 forgot the most important four (4) points that make the RV logical, reasonable and for the most part necessary:

1) The dinar, post-war was at a $3+ rate and has been as high as $4.86 in the past. Why would the Iraq dinar remain at 1170 with such in-ground verified value ..?

2) Iraq produces an equal amount of oil to Kuwait who has a value of $3.70. Why would the Iraq dinar remain at 1170 with such in-ground verified value ..?

3) The US (and other major players) have a vested interest in Iraq and the RV. Why would the Iraq dinar remain at 1170 with such in-ground verified value and major world players benefiting from an Iraq RV..?

4) without a significant increase in dinar value via the RV...Irag is strapped to finance the Trillion(s) dollar infrastructure rebuild necessary to bring Iraq back into global standing...Budgets can be changed...

So...the answer is axiomatic...the RV benefits both Iraq and major players...no RV benefits none of them and would only allow Iraq to maintain it's beaten down and poor status quo...Nuff Said...


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Post by dan4588 Wed Dec 21, 2011 7:32 am

Not my words this is from Scott



But I have to agree with you and Scott When you are dealing with The Three Stooges Maliki Shabibi and Alawi :joker: theese clown can not get thier crap together this is going to be a long haul just like my friend said who was the head of security in Iraq you have seen him escorting thees clowns in, out and around Iraq.



His statement to me if this does not RV my Sept 15 2011 we are in for a very long haul this was said to me back in aug



Well I guess it came true

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Post by openmind Wed Dec 21, 2011 7:49 am

globalbiz wrote:



1) The dinar, post-war was at a $3+ rate and has been as high as $4.86 in the past. Why would the Iraq dinar remain at 1170 with such in-ground verified value ..?

The dinar was $3 pre 1991 invasion of Kuwait. The Geopolitical scenario has fundamentally changed since then. When was it $4.86?

2) Iraq produces an equal amount of oil to Kuwait who has a value of $3.70. Why would the Iraq dinar remain at 1170 with such in-ground verified value ..?

The Iraqi government claims that it has the largest known reserves of Oil in the world. They do sit on a bed of riches. Assuming they can get their social, political, and economic houses together and properly manage their wealth, yes, their currency can be more reflective of its potential...much like Kuwait as you say. Buy wouldn't it be less expensive to LOP?

3) The US (and other major players) have a vested interest in Iraq and the RV. Why would the Iraq dinar remain at 1170 with such in-ground verified value and major world players benefiting from an Iraq RV..?

Yes many players have interests in Iraq. But again, why wouldn't they LOP instead of RV? The PTB would make their money and it would be easier for them if 6 million of us didn't become millionaires over night.


4) without a significant increase in dinar value via the RV...Irag is strapped to finance the Trillion(s) dollar infrastructure rebuild necessary to bring Iraq back into global standing...Budgets can be changed...

Not sure if its in the Trillions but yes, with a flimsy currency, it would be hard to build infrastructure. This is mainly because having a weak currency is in turn an indicator of bad economic management.

So...the answer is axiomatic...the RV benefits both Iraq and major players...no RV benefits none of them and would only allow Iraq to maintain it's beaten down and poor status quo...Nuff Said...

The only thing I think that is self evident ('axiomatic') is the fact that 1170 is not reflective of the true wealth and economic potential of Iraq.

I sure hope it RVs and soon. But I wouldn't be surprised if they LOP...or even if Iraq disintegrates and crumbles politically. Honestly, the only thing the PTB really care about is the flow of oil. Doesn't matter if its from Iraq, Kurdistan, or the moon. LOL.



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"People want to see real hope restored, not false hope hyped up!" ---Me

"I either want less corruption, or more chance to participate in it."---Dinar Pumpers
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Post by Purpleskyz Wed Dec 21, 2011 8:46 am

Wow. Very well said Scott. I have a friend that has invested very heavily and at this point is very let down. He won't even spend a moment on this site because of exactly what you posted above.

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Post by pontymania Wed Dec 21, 2011 8:50 am

Good posts here and agree with ev1.It shows an RV does not necessarily has to happen. A LOP is possible or the status quo is just that.The country has been running the same when Saddam was in power and now economically speaking.. So much corruption and their lifeline is oil.We all know its the oil and how the country manipulates to survive.We are just peons hoping our toilet paper RV's. Can't wait for the day we don't have to talk about this again.Of course I pray we have an RV and maybe just maybe by accident it RV's soon .If it doesn't we just lose most of the value purchased. It's not a total loss. Still is a a great investment whatever happens.

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Post by kendorie Wed Dec 21, 2011 9:34 am

The one thing this post did not take into consideration is just how much of the Billions that were turned over to Iraq went in to the "secret" bank accounts of the corrupt powers in place? Only "the shadow knows for sure" Smile !!!

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Post by TIMSTERS Wed Dec 21, 2011 10:15 am

globalbiz wrote:dan4588 forgot the most important four (4) points that make the RV logical, reasonable and for the most part necessary:

1) The dinar, post-war was at a $3+ rate and has been as high as $4.86 in the past. Why would the Iraq dinar remain at 1170 with such in-ground verified value ..?

2) Iraq produces an equal amount of oil to Kuwait who has a value of $3.70. Why would the Iraq dinar remain at 1170 with such in-ground verified value ..?

3) The US (and other major players) have a vested interest in Iraq and the RV. Why would the Iraq dinar remain at 1170 with such in-ground verified value and major world players benefiting from an Iraq RV..?

4) without a significant increase in dinar value via the RV...Irag is strapped to finance the Trillion(s) dollar infrastructure rebuild necessary to bring Iraq back into global standing...Budgets can be changed...

So...the answer is axiomatic...the RV benefits both Iraq and major players...no RV benefits none of them and would only allow Iraq to maintain it's beaten down and poor status quo...Nuff Said...

CAN ANY ONE PROVE TO ME THAT ALL THE MAJOR PLAYERS ACTUALLY HOLD DINAR ?I DONT BELEIVE ANY ONE CAN PROVE IT!!!!!I DARE YOU!!!
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Post by chevysteve Wed Dec 21, 2011 10:41 am

Scott,

I have only been on this forum a short time but, this is the most brilliant post regardeng the "Dinar Subject" I have read anywhere on any forum...

I couldn't agree with you more and "22" is fine with me, I'll wait it out. It does anger me that some "may be" putting out false hope to those who are hanging on the edge of thier seat for this RV. It's just not right, fair or honest. To them, you will be judged and not by those on this or any other forum,
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Post by GoodGosh Wed Dec 21, 2011 11:20 am

And who the heck is Scott???
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Post by Purpleskyz Wed Dec 21, 2011 11:30 am

He wrote the above article. Smile

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Post by showmethe$ Wed Dec 21, 2011 11:31 am

He signed Scott at the bottom of his post. Dan 4588 is Scott
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Post by yoursoulknows Fri Dec 23, 2011 3:30 am

Smoke and Mirrors?

I see where you're coming from but that was your first post?? Like, really?

The one thing I've not heard people speak about is of HUGE importance... it is the fact that the amount of zeros at the end of transactions in Iraq, especially larger ones, make it an accounting nightmare. Maybe it's "OK" at this time, and over the last 8 years, cos they are emerging out of war. But now, as they start the re-building process, it will be virtually impossible to conduct global business with the dinar having the value it does, mathematically. Computers or adding machines do not have the capability to handle such large numbers and, when computing numbers with so many zeros at the end, it is so easy to make a mistake and cause potential losses, errors, unbalanced business, headaches!!

For example - a number like $680 Billion is a number seen in oil contracts, military contracts and large type contracts/transactions. What is $680 Billion in dinar?? What does it look like? $680 Billion = $680,000,000,000. So in dinar that would be 680,000,000,000 x 1170 = 795,600,000,000,000 dinar. Did I get enough 0's? Yes I did, but do you see what I mean?

Even with smaller numbers, let's use $45,000 (a new car). That would be 45000 x 1170 = 52,650,000 dinar (52 million dinar) This is not practical, nor will not work for the rest of the world doing business with Iraq...

Some may say: "Iraq will just use USD" No, they won't... Iraq is to be a sovereign nation. Iraq and the Iraqi people will want to use their own currency, the dinar, like other Arab nations. They will not wish to continue using USD, and the purpose of 'deleting the zeros' is to get the USD off the streets - to De-dollarize the country...

The currency we hold is valid for cash in until 2013 or 2014 according to CBI policies... it says that CBI will honor the currency for a period of 10 years. I think this currency was printed in 2003 or 20004. So "The Dinar is Due in '22" doesn't work for anyone....

One last point - who says there are 6 Million dinar holders? Where did that # come from? Cos I don't believe it whatsoever. I know a ton of people, the only ones with dinar are the ones I told... and if I didn't tell them they wouldn't have any. The conference calls and forum sites - 1000 people on the call? 5000 people on a call? There are no sites with 200,000 members even - and 6 Million dinar holders? Says who? A guru?

There are people who will sell their dinar now, especially reading posts like the one here. There are people who will give up, get out, think it won't happen cos of the challenges being reported out of Iraq. There are people who are PAID to give us misinformation, there are people who are PAID to help convince people to sell their dinar.... there are people who are totally convinced it is a scam - they will throw their weight around too... SO - it comes down to a few things: Personal conviction, personal fortitude and courage, patience, faith and our God given reason and logic. The mathematical challenges alone are a huge reason to revalue, to raise the zeros, to change the current value.

Stay strong... don't drink the koolaid - of either the gurus calling it daily or the skeptics saying it won't happen.... stay level, stay balanced.

Cheers, YSK

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