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a. Dr. Maitham Al-Ayibi *: The possible repercussions of the (Post-Sulaymani crisis) on the Iraqi dinar exchange rate DinarDailyUpdates?bg=330099&fg=FFFFFF&anim=1

a. Dr. Maitham Al-Ayibi *: The possible repercussions of the (Post-Sulaymani crisis) on the Iraqi dinar exchange rate

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a. Dr. Maitham Al-Ayibi *: The possible repercussions of the (Post-Sulaymani crisis) on the Iraqi dinar exchange rate Empty a. Dr. Maitham Al-Ayibi *: The possible repercussions of the (Post-Sulaymani crisis) on the Iraqi dinar exchange rate

Post by claud39 on Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:57 am

a. Dr. Maitham Al-Ayibi *: The possible repercussions of the (Post-Sulaymani crisis) on the Iraqi dinar exchange rate
01/09/2020





a. Dr. Maitham Al-Ayibi *: The possible repercussions of the (Post-Sulaymani crisis) on the Iraqi dinar exchange rate Maythem-Laiebi-image




The Iraqi economy in general will face more pressure in the year 2020, due to the political tensions witnessed by the country and represented by the popular protests in late 2019, which culminated in the killing of (Soleimani and the engineer) by the Baghdad airport operation at the hands of the American forces early this year 2020, which portends a lot of pressure on the economy Iraqi, mainly burdened by problems of mismanagement, corruption and over-dependence on one resource.

 

It is expected that the Central Bank of Iraq will face significant daily operational pressures in its management of the currency auction in order to continue to maintain the stability of the exchange rate as much as possible and prevent significant fluctuations in it that could lead to instability of the economy and affect the purchasing power of individuals.

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a. Dr. Maitham Al-Ayibi *: The possible repercussions of the (Post-Sulaymani crisis) on the Iraqi dinar exchange rate Empty The possible repercussions of (Post-Sulaymani crisis) on an exchange rate

Post by claud39 on Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:04 am

Monetary Policy Papers

a. Dr. Maitham Al-Ayibi *: The possible repercussions of
(Post-Sulaymani crisis) on an exchange rate


a. Dr. Maitham Al-Ayibi *: The possible repercussions of the (Post-Sulaymani crisis) on the Iraqi dinar exchange rate Maythem-Laiebi-image



Iraqi dinar
Pressure from the year
More
It will face the Iraqi economy in general
2020, due to the political tensions in the country and represented
With the popular protests in late 2019, Soleimani was killed
ُ
, Which T.
And the engineer (with the Baghdad airport operation at the hands of the American forces is familiar
The current year 2020 promises a lot of pressure on the economy
ُ
, Than my
Problems of mismanagement
Ethnicity, mainly overburdened, corruption and dependence
Excessive single resource.

Operational
The Central Bank of Iraq will face pressure
Expect a
ُ
It is pain
A large daily run of the currency auction in order to maintain the province
To stabilize the exchange rate as much as possible and to prevent fluctuations
It does not lead to
It is possible that the economy is unstable and affected
The purchasing power of individuals.

Then after he saw
A central bank is a stage of stability in the exchange rate for the period
(2017-2019), as there were no fluctuations between the official exchange rate

The market is only about 1%, and the exchange rate remains at 1200
No protests n dinars per dollar, which is the target price, a
Popularity in the central and southern regions, late 2019 and inflection
Acute scene in the beginning of the year 2020 as a result of Soleimani's death
And the engineer, entering into a series of threats and mutual promises
And air strikes on the Iraqi scene, all this portends fears
Return to the era of the existence of two exchange rates, both at the grassroots level
Or at the level of elites and academics.
A pressure factor on
TN
Expect a
ُ
Among the most important factors of pain
The Central Bank during the coming period:

1- The decrease in the dollar prices against foreign currencies as a result of developments
Geopolitics in the Middle East region, and the effects of decline have continued
Iranian Toman exchange rate, which creates pressure on demand
External on the dollar and speculation on it.

2- Pessimistic expectations that increase the demand for dollars and flight
Of the dinar.

3 - Increased daily speculation operations on the dollar at home;
In order to achieve quick profits, after the ignition (post crisis)

 See escalatory events and pronouncements
Expect a
ُ
Soleimani), who is from pain
On a daily level.
4c Fast from (Post-Sulaymani Crisis)
َ
Another
َ
Weak confidence in the presence of M.
Raging in the region.
The uncertainties continued to fall within the political process
5-c
You put
َ
Shutter
ُ
The lack of formulation of positions m
ِ
deceitfulness
ُ
Ethnicity between the two parties
Iraqi interest in front of it.
 The Central Bank of Iraq is possible during the first
Short supply
It continues to maintain the stability of the exchange rate
The average a
Su testify
The dinar against the dollar, and it is not expected a
It's impressed
Between the official and market exchange rate, due to its retention
Severe
In exchange for preserving
 J progressively
Explain
N j
With high reserves can a
Exchange rate, what can be called (reserve versus exchange), as not
The central bank will record its dollar reserves (restriction)
Expect a
ُ
Y
Supply) in front of continued demand for it, especially since the horizon is not witnessing
.
A crisis that leads to low oil prices globally
 The factors mentioned above will lead to
Certainly Fa
Flee the Iraqi dinar towards the dollar or other assets

The administration of AD has increased the currency again in and

Then position defend the price
Spending in front of the public instead of the current relaxation position, please
It is exercised by the two executive powers
For possible pressures a
To meet the requirements
And legislative it to provide more liquidity m
Expected political and military, against the backdrop of the current crisis, and the most dangerous
Be
A part of these requirements is outside the official budget frameworks
And its numbers, and the central bank has to meet them, which may mean payment
Toward a return to more politicization of the central bank's policy and breaking
 We repeated how long this wall was demolished
Y
ُ
His independence again, Ma Y
Independence in the years (2015-2017) following the double shock
(Low oil prices and ISIS entry), as borrowing volume has reached
 Z the government from the Central Bank to 16 T.
Trillion dinars, the finest, g
The government party for the rest of it.


(*) Professor of Public Finance / Department of Economics / Al-Mustansiriya University
Copyright © Iraqi Economist Network. Restart allowed
Publication provided that the source is indicated. January 9, 2020




http://iraqieconomists.net/ar/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/01/%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%AB%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D9%8A%D8%A8%D9%8A-%D8%A3%D8%B2%D9%85%D8%A9-%D9%85%D8%A7-%D8%A8%D8%B9%D8%AF-%D8%B3%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A-%D9%85%D8%AD%D8%B1%D8%B1%D8%A9.pdf
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a. Dr. Maitham Al-Ayibi *: The possible repercussions of the (Post-Sulaymani crisis) on the Iraqi dinar exchange rate Empty a. Dr. Maitham Al-Ayibi *: Possible Repercussions of (Post-Sulaymani crisis) on an exchange rate Iraqi dinar

Post by claud39 on Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:59 am

a. Dr. Maitham Al-Ayibi *: Possible Repercussions of (Post-Sulaymani crisis) on an exchange rate Iraqi dinar

01/09/2020


a. Dr. Maitham Al-Ayibi *: The possible repercussions of the (Post-Sulaymani crisis) on the Iraqi dinar exchange rate Maythem-Laiebi-image


The ethnic economy in general will face more pressure in the year 2020, due to the political tensions in the country and represented with the popular protests in late 2019, which culminated in the death of Soleimani and the engineer (with Baghdad airport operation at the hands of the American forces is familiar this year 2020, which portends a lot of pressure on the economy ethnicity, mainly burdened by problems of mismanagement, corruption and dependence excessive single resource.

The Central Bank of Iraq is expected to face operational pressures a large daily basis in his administration did not increase the currency in order to continue the preservation the exchange rate should be stabilized whenever possible and prevent fluctuations large in it can lead to economic instability and be affected the purchasing power of individuals.


After the Central Bank witnessed a stable stage in the exchange rate for the period (2017 - 2019), as there were no fluctuations between the official exchange rate and the market only within the limits of 1% and the exchange rate stabilized at 1200 dinar per dollar, which is the target pricebut the protests popularity in the central and southern regions in late 2019 and the inflection acute scene in the beginning of the year 2020 as a result of Soleimani's death and the engineer, entering into a series of threats and mutual promises the air strikes on the ethnic scene, all this heralds fears return to the era of the existence of two exchange rates, both at the grassroots level or at the level of elites and academics.


Among the most important factors that are expected to be a stress factor on the Central Bank during the coming period:

1- The decrease in the dollar prices against foreign currencies as a result of the development geopolitics in the Middle East, and the effects of decline have continued Omani Rial exchange rate, which creates pressure on demande external to the dollar and speculation it.

2- pessimistic expectations that increase the demand for dollars and escape of the dinar.

3- Increase the daily speculation operations on the dollar internally; in order to achieve quick profits, after the ignition (post crisis Soleimani), who is expected to witness escalatory events and statements on a daily level.

4- Weak confidence in the existence of a quick exit from (Post-Sulaymani crisis) raging in the region.

5- Expectations of uncertainties in the political process will continue within the the race between the different parties and the failure to formulate common positions develop the ethnic interest is in front of it.



The Central Bank of Iraq is possible in the short term the average will continue to maintain the stability of the exchange rate the dinar is against the dollar, and the market is not expected to see any improvement excessively between the official and market exchange rates, due to its retention with high reserves it can be gradually lost in exchange for conservation exchange rate, what can be called (reserve versus exchange), as not the central bank is expected to restrict its dollar reserves (restriction) the offer (in front of the request continued to be requested, especially since the horizon is not witnessed a crisis that leads to low oil prices globally.


Certainly, the factors mentioned above will lead to fleeing the Iraqi dinar toward the dollar or other assets then, the management of the more currency will again be in a position to defend a price to spend in front of the public instead of the current relaxation position, this is also on the pressures that the executive powers can exert legislative will have to provide more liquidity in order to meet the requirements the political and military expected against the background of the current crisis, and the most dangerous part of these requirements should be outside the official budget frameworks and their numbers, and the central bank had to fulfill them, which could mean payment toward a return to more politicization of the central bank's policy and breaking its independence again, which is reminiscent of how long this wall was demolished independence in the years (2015-2017) following the double shock (Low oil prices and ISIS entry), as the size of borrowing has reached the government from the central bank to 16 trillion ethnic dinars, overlooked the government party for the rest of it.


(*) Professor of Public Finance / Department of Economics / Al-Mustansiriya University
Copyright a. Dr. Maitham Al-Ayibi *: The possible repercussions of the (Post-Sulaymani crisis) on the Iraqi dinar exchange rate 00a9.png?v=2.2 Ethnic Economists Network. Restart allowed
Publication provided that the source is indicated. January 9, 2020


http://iraqieconomists.net/
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