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Kaperoni says -  they're talking about a lop it's clear as day.. DinarDailyUpdates?bg=330099&fg=FFFFFF&anim=1

Kaperoni says - they're talking about a lop it's clear as day..

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Kaperoni says -  they're talking about a lop it's clear as day.. Empty Kaperoni says - they're talking about a lop it's clear as day..

Post by Ponee on Thu Oct 10, 2019 8:51 pm

Guru  Kaperoni




People can only sit for so long with empty promises to they get restless. The government needs to activate economic reforms, laws and the banking system needs to get open for investors to come in.  Otherwise violence is only going to escalate. 


10.11.2019

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   Article:   "Finance Committee in the Iraqi Council of Representatives announced on Monday (19-August-2019) the government direction to reinstate the currency and delete zeros from paper currency in order to strengthen the national economy"  You better hope that doesn't happen because they're talking about a lop it's clear as day..."I want to remove the zeros off the paper"...meaning lop them.   ...my hope is the CBI is going to follow the directive of the IMF in float the currency and allow it to gradually rise based on the influx of capital as a result of significant investment to create a market economy. But as a backup it seems that Parliament wants to pass a law to Simply lop the zeros off the notes and create a one-to-one exchange rate, as well as reducing the currency from trillions to billions... We have to hope iraq succeeds in launching this market economy.


10.10.2019

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Post by Ponee on Fri Oct 11, 2019 9:14 pm

.

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Post by Sam I Am on Sat Oct 12, 2019 10:08 am

picking

I've only been saying for eight years that they're describing a lop. And I've been saying for seven years that Kap is wrong about the free float. Iraq, just like the other petroleum based economies of that region, will never have a free floating currency. The IMF is only recommending that they go to a more flexible exchange rate on their current exchange regime of a defacto peg via a managed float. In other words, don't be so reluctant to slowly and incrementally lower the value in order to stimulate your economy by making your exports more attractive to foreign markets. In effect, the IMF is encouraging them to move the dinar's value in the opposite direction from what speculators want.

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Post by Muskie on Sat Oct 12, 2019 2:51 pm

I'm not going to comment on what Kap is talking about regarding a lop but Sam you need to understand what you read before you make such statements go back and read what the IMF is stating and you'll see they are not talking about devaluing the currency
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Post by Sam I Am on Sat Oct 12, 2019 11:06 pm

I've read those IMF documents that Kap links to. They're not talking about a free float. They're talking about making periodic adjustments to the exchange rate, and since it would serve no purpose to raise the value they must be talking about lowering the value. If you have a link that you believe supports a different view I'll gladly take a look at it.

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Post by Muskie on Sat Oct 12, 2019 11:40 pm

@Sam I Am wrote:I've read those IMF documents that Kap links to.  They're not talking about a free float.  They're talking about making periodic adjustments to the exchange rate, and since it would serve no purpose to raise the value they must be talking about lowering the value.  If you have a link that you believe supports a different view I'll gladly take a look at it.
Research the Balassa-Samuelson Effect.  I think your quite naive.
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Post by Sam I Am on Sun Oct 13, 2019 1:55 pm

I'm naive? LOL I'm not the one holding onto IQD expecting an unprecedented and impossible revaluation (or appreciation via a free float, which will never happen with the IQD because Iraq has a petroleum based economy) to make me million$. I've read about the BS Effect, and it has nothing to do with any substantial increase in the dinar's value. I learned about currency valuation from a recognized expert - John Jagerson. I didn't study at the Kaperoni School of Economics. Emerging economies like Iraq's are much more likely to have a currency that loses value than one that gains value. When the IMF talks about a more flexible exchange rate they're not talking about going to a free float so the IQD can take off like a rocket. They're saying the managed float that they're using now could be relaxed a bit, which would likely lead to a declining valuation.

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Post by Muskie on Sun Oct 13, 2019 4:01 pm

@Sam I Am wrote:I'm naive?  LOL  I'm not the one holding onto IQD expecting an unprecedented and impossible revaluation (or appreciation via a free float, which will never happen with the IQD because Iraq has a petroleum based economy) to make me million$.  I've read about the BS Effect, and it has nothing to do with any substantial increase in the dinar's value.  I learned about currency valuation from a recognized expert - John Jagerson.  I didn't study at the Kaperoni School of Economics.  Emerging economies like Iraq's are much more likely to have a currency that loses value than one that gains value.  When the IMF talks about a more flexible exchange rate they're not talking about going to a free float so the IQD can take off like a rocket.  They're saying the managed float that they're using now could be relaxed a bit, which would likely lead to a declining valuation.
You must be living in another world if you don't realize what Iraq is trying to do. They're clearly trying to build a market economy to diversify away from oil or at least substantially reduce dependence on it. If you really read what the Balassa-Samuelson Effect is then you would understand it has everything to do with the rapid growth of the economy and as a result, the rapid appreciation of the currency. You're either stubborn or naive or both for not seeing what's happening. I'm not expecting anything this year and maybe not even next.   It could take many more years in my mind, but you obviously don't understand what you read or are to set in your lop ways to understanding what's happening in Iraq. I don't think referencing a guru gives you any more credibility in fact it makes it less. I do my own studying and I read documentation and understand. I don't need a guru to explain anything to me.  I think the team at the IMF probably knows a little more than your part-time economist Jagerson.
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Post by Jayzze on Sun Oct 13, 2019 6:28 pm

the only thing that is clear is you are fos and keep dreaming
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Post by RamblerNash on Sun Oct 13, 2019 11:06 pm

@Muskie wrote:I'm not going to comment on what Kap is talking about regarding a lop but Sam you need to understand what you read before you make such statements go back and read what the IMF is stating and you'll see they are not talking about devaluing the currency
Their not talking about revaluing the Dinar either.

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2019/07/25/Iraq-2019-Article-IV-Consultation-and-Proposal-for-Post-Program-Monitoring-Press-Release-48527

The IMF's projection to 2024 is still at 1,182 (1,190 including commission)
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Post by RamblerNash on Sun Oct 13, 2019 11:08 pm

@Muskie wrote:
You must be living in another world if you don't realize what Iraq is trying to do. They're clearly trying to build a market economy to diversify away from oil or at least substantially reduce dependence on it. If you really read what the Balassa-Samuelson Effect is then you would understand it has everything to do with the rapid growth of the economy and as a result, the rapid appreciation of the currency.
Rapid? No where does it say that! Your making that part up.

Here's an article you might find interesting about the Balassa-Samualson hypothesis:

https://sjes.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s41937-019-0029-3


I'm sure you have read plenty of articles that Iraq wants to attract foreign investment. Depreciating the exchange rate does just that. It gives foreign investors more purchasing power within Iraq. The problems with attracting foreign investment is there are still bombs going off daily, corruption, the lack of services, etc.


Seen any demonstrations about that lately?
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Post by Sam I Am on Mon Oct 14, 2019 5:08 am

You must be living in another world if you don't realize what Iraq is trying to do. They're clearly trying to build a market economy to diversify away from oil or at least substantially reduce dependence on it. If you really read what the Balassa-Samuelson Effect is then you would understand it has everything to do with the rapid growth of the economy and as a result, the rapid appreciation of the currency. You're either stubborn or naive or both for not seeing what's happening. I'm not expecting anything this year and maybe not even next.   It could take many more years in my mind, but you obviously don't understand what you read or are to set in your lop ways to understanding what's happening in Iraq. I don't think referencing a guru gives you any more credibility in fact it makes it less. I do my own studying and I read documentation and understand. I don't need a guru to explain anything to me.  I think the team at the IMF probably knows a little more than your part-time economist Jagerson.
First of all JJ isn't a part-time economist. He's a highly valued consultant to Fortune 500 companies who seek out his expertise regarding foreign currencies and exchange rates. The man completed the PLD program at Harvard. Name me one dinar guru with his credentials? Most of these guys don't even give you their real names, let alone their CV.
Here's an article about the BS Effect and China. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1049007817300271 China's revaluation was the largest in history according to JJ, and the yuan's value increased by about 33% from 2005 to 2015, so IF Iraq DOES experience a rapid appreciation per the BS Effect as China theoretically did (which I would question since they were pressured into raising the value at the threat of imposing tariffs), that would only amount to an increase of 33% which probably wouldn't even cover the exchange fees dinarians pay in buying and selling dinar. A 33% increase over a period of 10 years comes to a whopping 3.3% per year, and that's the best case scenario. You're probably talking about 1-2% per year or less. If you want to hold on to your dinar for gains like that then be my guest.
I have no doubt that the IMF has some smart people, but they're not announcing an unprecedented increase in value of the IQD as you and Kap seem to think they are. They're simply talking about a potential increase of 20% or less over the next ten years. By historic standards that would be a huge increase, but of course in dinarland that's puny. The key here is understanding how currency valuation works. In the real world a pegged currency like Iraq's has a valuation based primarily on two things - money supply and foreign currency reserves. In the real world exchange rate stability (as well as economic and political stability) is essential in order to encourage foreign investment. The CBI wants that stability, so much so that the IMF thinks that they're being too conservative with it. But if and when they become more flexible you're still only talking about movement of a percent or two in either direction per year. That's it! That's reality. That's why I got out. I had a reality check.

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Post by Muskie on Mon Oct 14, 2019 11:58 am

it's pretty clear that you don't know what you're talking about. And I choose to take the team from the IMF and what they have to say over your gibberish. Your consultant friend I'm sure has little experience or no experience with the Middle East so he doesn't add much credibility. First and foremost how fast a currency appreciates is directly related to several factors there for a blanket statement of 1% or 2% per year is rediculous because if a country's economy explodes like Dubai did, the CBI would have no choice but to allow the currency to appreciate at a much greater rate to counter inflation and increase in prices throughout the country. My advice is to read the documents pertaining to the Balassa -Samuelson Effect so that you understand what you're talking about.
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Post by RamblerNash on Tue Oct 15, 2019 1:24 am

You have to go back to the 70's to see any exchange rate changes.

Kaperoni says -  they're talking about a lop it's clear as day.. Scree425
That's roughly 3% a year over a 10 year period. Since the 80's, the exchange rate hasn't changed despite the further rapid growth. The exchange rate also never fell due to the downturn in 2008-09 either.

Iraq is nowhere near the state that Dubai was/is.

Where is all this massive investment going to come from to jump start Iraq's economy?
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Post by Sam I Am on Tue Oct 15, 2019 10:46 am

@Muskie wrote:it's pretty clear that you don't know what you're talking about. And I choose to take the team from the IMF and what they have to say over your gibberish. Your consultant friend I'm sure has little experience or no experience with the Middle East so he doesn't add much credibility. First and foremost how fast a currency appreciates is directly related to several factors there for a blanket statement of 1% or 2% per year is rediculous because if a country's economy explodes like Dubai did, the CBI would have no choice but to allow the currency to appreciate at a much greater rate to counter inflation and increase in prices throughout the country. My advice is to read the documents pertaining to the Balassa -Samuelson Effect so that you understand what you're talking about.

It doesn't work that way, Muskie.  The IQD is a pegged currency, so if the economy takes off, increasing oil revenues and thus deposits into the foreign currency reserves, they simply expand the money supply to reflect the growth rather than increasing the value because ... AGAIN ... they want exchange rate stability.  From 2009-2013 Iraq's GDP more than doubled from $111b to $234b.  During that time their foreign currency reserves went from $44b to $77b.  Did they raise the value of the IQD?  Nope!  It remained at 1170:1. (Correction - They did raise the value 1/3 of 1% from 1170:1 to 1166:1 in January of 2012 after a spike in inflation.) Why, how could that be?  Because as I said they just expanded the money supply.  The M2 went from about 40tr to about 80tr.  That's how it works in the real world, but most of us didn't understand this when we bought dinar, and the currency dealers and pumpers exploit that lack of sophistication, and therein is the scam.

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Post by RamblerNash on Thu Oct 17, 2019 12:24 am

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Post by Sam I Am on Thu Oct 17, 2019 7:18 am

And during that same time frame (2012-2019) the KWD went from about $3.58 to about $3.28, so it's actually lost over 8% of its value despite the increase in the FCR.

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Post by RamblerNash on Thu Oct 17, 2019 11:13 pm

So, another example of the Balassa-Samualson hypothesis not being cracked up to what it's supposed to be, just like the article I posted above, eh?


I wonder how many oil country examples are out there that can be found where the Balassa-Samualson hypothesis didn't have the effect is was supposed to have...
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