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ARAB MONETARY FUND LAUNCHES THE SEPTEMBER EDITION OF THE ARAB ECONOMIC PROSPECTS REPORT, INCLUDING AN UPDATE ON THE GROWTH AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE ARAB COUNTRIES FOR 2019 AND 2020 DinarDailyUpdates?bg=330099&fg=FFFFFF&anim=1

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ARAB MONETARY FUND LAUNCHES THE SEPTEMBER EDITION OF THE ARAB ECONOMIC PROSPECTS REPORT, INCLUDING AN UPDATE ON THE GROWTH AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE ARAB COUNTRIES FOR 2019 AND 2020

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ARAB MONETARY FUND LAUNCHES THE SEPTEMBER EDITION OF THE ARAB ECONOMIC PROSPECTS REPORT, INCLUDING AN UPDATE ON THE GROWTH AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE ARAB COUNTRIES FOR 2019 AND 2020 Empty ARAB MONETARY FUND LAUNCHES THE SEPTEMBER EDITION OF THE ARAB ECONOMIC PROSPECTS REPORT, INCLUDING AN UPDATE ON THE GROWTH AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE ARAB COUNTRIES FOR 2019 AND 2020

Post by claud39 on Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:58 am

ARAB MONETARY FUND LAUNCHES THE SEPTEMBER EDITION OF THE ARAB ECONOMIC PROSPECTS REPORT, INCLUDING AN UPDATE ON THE GROWTH AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE ARAB COUNTRIES FOR 2019 AND 2020






2019-09-11



ARAB MONETARY FUND LAUNCHES THE SEPTEMBER EDITION OF THE ARAB ECONOMIC PROSPECTS REPORT, INCLUDING AN UPDATE ON THE GROWTH AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE ARAB COUNTRIES FOR 2019 AND 2020 Logo-ar










Weak global economic activity affects levels of external demand

Economic diversification efforts and economic reform programs support the performance of Arab economies during the projection horizon

Arab economies are expected to grow by 2.5 percent in 2019 and 3.0 percent in 2020

Digital transformation, strengthening human capital and reducing unemployment are the top priorities for the future

 

International institutions lowered their estimates of the expected global economic growth rate in 2019 in light of weak levels of global economic activity and international trade, reflecting the uncertainty created by the escalating trade tensions between the two largest economic powers in the world - the United States and China - and the increasing pace of trade protectionism. This has affected industrialization, investment and international trade. In contrast, a relative improvement in global economic activity is expected in 2020, assuming satisfactory agreements on existing trade disputes and a return to trade liberalization paths within the global multilateral trading system.

The global economy still faces several risks, mainly the impact of trade tensions on the paths of global economic growth and international trade, rising levels of indebtedness and their expected negative effects on the budgets of families and companies, in addition to the expected impact of the slowdown of the Chinese economy and the Brexit without an agreement. And doubts about the ability of global economies to reach the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.

Based on the current state of the global economy and the ensuing slowdown in external demand, the Arab Economic Prospects report predicted that the growth rate of Arab countries will be around 2.5 percent in 2019 compared to about 2.1 percent of growth recorded in 2018. Both Arab oil exporting and importing countries as a result of slowing external demand and its expected impact on oil and non-oil exports. On the other hand, the economic growth projections of the Arab countries during the year 2020 were kept at a level of around 3.0% in light of the expected relative recovery of the world economy, and the positive effects of economic reform programs, macroeconomic policy reforms and structural reforms implemented by the Arab countries to support economic stability continue. And stimulate economic activity.

In terms of trends in the development of the general price level, inflation rates in 2019 and 2020 are expected to be influenced by several factors both internally and externally. At the domestic level, inflation is expected to be influenced by a series of fiscal reforms and countervailing initiatives and measures to mitigate their impact on consumers. At the external level, the most important factors are expected changes in world oil prices, raw materials and strategic commodities, as well as changes in exchange rates . In light of the above developments, the inflation rate in the Arab countries is expected to decline to about 6.7 percent in 2019 and about 6.5 percent in 2020.

The report noted the reforms adopted by Arab countries years ago to restore macroeconomic stability, increase economic growth rates, create more jobs, increase levels of economic diversification, enhance the productivity and competitiveness of their economies, and consequently intensify the pace of fiscal discipline measures. Levels of flexibility of Arab economies, and building policy space to strengthen their position against internal and external economic fluctuations. In light of the above, the main policy priorities are:


  • Increased levels of economic diversification



Arab countries have adopted over the past decades , a series of reforms aimed at diversifying the economic and productive structures , including helping to achieve Arab countries as a group relative to progress on the diversification of production structures falling on the impact of the contribution of the oil sector and strategic industries ranging between 20 and 40 per cent of GDP during the five decades Last. However, they have yet to intensify efforts to diversify the structures of national economies and increase the contribution of other economic sectors, particularly the manufacturing sector, whose contribution to GDP remains limited at 10.4 per cent, compared with 22 per cent for the average of States. Developing and emerging markets, about 16 per cent of the global average.


  • Transformation towards a knowledge economy



In the midst of developments in the world under the Fourth Industrial Revolution, there is an urgent need to transform Arab economies into a knowledge economy, where the contribution of Arab countries is still limited. The transformation towards a knowledge economy provides great opportunities to promote economic growth and create more jobs for young people in the Arab countries, whether in traditional sectors such as agriculture, industry and services that can benefit from the accelerated technological development to support productivity and competitiveness, or in sectors that are linked to modern technologies. It emerged within the framework of the Fourth Industrial Revolution such as the industrial intelligence sectors, the Internet of Things, big data, financial technologies, energy storage and other technologies that can significantly boost the growth rate of Arab countries.


  • Supporting human capital



Inequality in human capital across countries - along with in-kind capital and population growth - is largely responsible for explaining the differences in the level of economic growth. In this regard, Arab countries face challenges related to human capital enhancement, as demonstrated by the new Human Capital Measurement Index, which requires more attention to support the recent World Bank Human Capital by supporting education, health, training, scientific research and promoting excellence. .


  • Reduce unemployment



The challenge of reducing unemployment remains at the forefront of the economic challenges facing Arab countries, where the unemployment rate in the Arab countries of about 10 per cent, according to World Bank data double the rate of unemployment recorded in the world. Unemployment in Arab countries is concentrated among young people, females, educated people and new entrants to the labor market. Reducing unemployment requires a set of policies aimed at transforming the structures of Arab economies, increasing labor market dynamics, strengthening the role of the private sector, as well as initiatives and policies to support regional and global integration.


  • Attention to microeconomic reforms to increase productivity and competitiveness



Arab countries need to pay more attention to microeconomic reforms that include all policies aimed at reducing economic distortions and achieving efficient use of economic resources. In this context, labor and product markets in a number of Arab countries face challenges due to the need to increase the flexibility of these markets in order to increase economic efficiency and increase levels of productivity and competitiveness.


  • Strengthening policy space to raise the resilience of Arab economies against economic shocks



The impact of the international economic environment on the growth paths of the Arab countries is strong. Enhancing the resilience of Arab economies to economic volatility, in addition to increasing levels of economic diversification, calls for greater attention to strengthening policy space, including policies to achieve fiscal discipline and ensure financial sustainability, increasing the flexibility of exchange rate regimes and targeting inflation in some countries and strengthening levels of reserves. Which has been declining in some countries recently.


  • Support regional integration efforts



The Arab countries have taken important steps in achieving economic integration since the launch of the Arab Free Trade Area, which aims to increase the levels of intra-merchandise trade and remove tariff and non-tariff barriers to reach the Arab Customs Union, which will entail negotiations to reach the Arab Common Market as a deeper degree of Arab economic integration. The Arab countries have been keen to integrate trade in services in the intra-trade liberalization negotiations, recognizing the strategic importance of this important sector, and a step towards deepening the level of Arab economic integration with the contribution of the services sector to 48% of GDP and 54% of GDP. Operating levels. These efforts culminated in the adoption of the Arab Agreement on the Liberalization of Trade in Services among Arab States as an independent agreement from the Greater Arab Free Trade Area, which is expected to enter into force during the second half of 2019. The activation of this agreement will increase the levels of intra-Arab trade to similar levels in other international economic blocs and support growth and employment opportunities. Supporting regional integration also requires parallel efforts to stimulate investments and intra-Arab capital transfers.

 

The full version of the report is available at:








https://www.amf.org.ae/sites/default/files/AEO_Sep_2019_.pdf








https://www.amf.org.ae/ar/content/%D8%B5%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%82%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A8%D9%8A-%D9%8A%D8%B7%D9%84%D9%82-%D8%A5%D8%B5%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%B3%D8%A8%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%A8%D8%B1-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%A2%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A8%D9%8A-%D9%85%D8%AA%D8%B6%D9%85%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%8B-%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%AB%D8%A7%D9%8B-%D9%84%D8%AA%D9%88%D9%82%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%AA
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ARAB MONETARY FUND LAUNCHES THE SEPTEMBER EDITION OF THE ARAB ECONOMIC PROSPECTS REPORT, INCLUDING AN UPDATE ON THE GROWTH AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE ARAB COUNTRIES FOR 2019 AND 2020 Empty Re: ARAB MONETARY FUND LAUNCHES THE SEPTEMBER EDITION OF THE ARAB ECONOMIC PROSPECTS REPORT, INCLUDING AN UPDATE ON THE GROWTH AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE ARAB COUNTRIES FOR 2019 AND 2020

Post by claud39 on Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:08 am

10th Edition - September 2019
A periodic report issued by the Arab Monetary Fund aimed at supporting decision makers and economic policy makers in the Arab countries
And provide them with an analytical and forward-looking view of economic performance profiles. In some respects, the report benefits from economic analysis
And expectations of specialists in central banks, ministries of finance and other official bodies in the Arab countries.

Arab Economic Outlook Report, 10th Edition, September 2019


Submit
Within the framework of the efforts of the Arab Monetary Fund to support decision makers and economic policy makers in the Arab countries,
The fund is issued
A number of periodic reports and studies concerned with the Arab economic affairs. in this context,
The IMF considered the importance of issuing the Arab Economic Outlook to provide decision makers in Arab countries
With a forward-looking and analytical vision of the macroeconomic performance of the Arab countries at several levels:
Trends in the development of domestic prices, monetary conditions, fiscal and external sectors. Is crafted
Based on the latest developments in the international economic environment, reflecting the expectations contained in this report
Developments in Arab economies and various economic reform paths. The report integrates with versions
Other Arab economic reports. With the issuance of the two reports, those interested can
The Arab Economic Affairs Committee is responsible for following up the current economic developments in the Arab countries and foreseeing features
A new addition to research efforts is the economic performance of subsequent periods. The Arab Monetary Fund hopes the report will be represented
To fill a research gap that is limited by expectations of performance
Arab countries as an independent regional group, through which IFAD aspires to contribute
In promoting economic decision-making in the Arab countries and supporting their progress towards inclusive and sustainable growth.
God willing, success ,,,
Abdul Rahman bin Abdullah Al Humaidi
General Manager Chairman of the Board
 Arab Monetary Fund

Economic Performance of Arab Countries
(2020 - 2019)
• • •
International institutions have downgraded their estimates
The expected rate during the year
2019 with weak activity levels
Global economic, and international trade is a reflection
To the uncertainty left by trade tensions
Escalating between the two largest economic powers on
Worldwide - United States of America
China - and the increasing pace of trade protectionism, which is what
Impact on manufacturing, investment and trade activities
International. In contrast, an improvement is expected
Relative to global economic activity in 2020
Assuming satisfactory agreements are reached
Existing trade disputes and return to paths
Trade liberalization within the global trading system
Multilateralism. The global economy continues to face
Several dangers are topped by the impact of tensions
Global economic growth
International trade, and rising levels of indebtedness
And their expected negative impacts on household budgets
Companies, especially in the event of continued weakness
Economic activity, as well as the expected impact
The slowdown in the Chinese economy, and the
Without an agreement,
And doubts about the ability of global
Reaching the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.
Based on the current state of the world economy and so on
Consequent slowdown of external demand levels,
This publication was published in the Prospects for the Economy
Arab cut expectations
To 5.2 percent compared to the April version of the same
This is a reflection of the lower growth estimates report.
In each of the Arab exporting countries
Oil and imported him as a result of slowing demand
And its expected effects on exports
Oil and non-oil. In contrast, they were retained
Expectations of economic growth for the Arab countries during the year
2020 at a level of about 3 per cent in
The expected recovery of the global economy has continued and continues
Positive effects of economic reform programs,
Macroeconomic policy reforms,
And structural reforms implemented by Arab countries
To support economic stability and stimulate activity
Diversification of the production and export base.
Regarding the evolution trends
Inflation rates are expected to be affected
During 2019 and 2020, the
Internal and external levels. At the level
Inflation is expected to be affected by a series
Financial reforms, initiatives and measures
Compensatory liability
Consumers. At the level of external factors,
The most important factors are changes in prices
Global oil, raw materials, and commodities
Strategy, such as wheat, as well as changes
Exchange rate
The other principal. In light of the above developments
Mentioned, inflation is expected to decline to
About 7.6 percent in 2019 and 5.6 percent
In 2020


10th Edition - September 2019
First: The international economic environment and its repercussions on the Arab countries 4
Global Growth Trends ............................................... ................................. 4
Commodity Markets ............................................... .................................. 6
Interest and exchange rates ............................................... ................................ 7
International Trade ................................................ .......................................... 8
Economic Risks ................................................ ................................... 9
Second: Updating the Expectations of the Macroeconomic Performance of the Arab Countries (2019-2020) 14
Economic Growth ................................................ ...................................... 14
Trends in the development of domestic prices .............................................. ..................... 30
Third: Statistical Appendices .............................................. ............................. 37
Trends of Economic Growth in the Arab Countries ................................................ ........ 37
Trends in the Development of Domestic Prices in the Arab Countries ............................................... ..38



Arab Economic Outlook Report, 10th Edition, September 2019

The international economic environment and its repercussions on the Arab countries
Trade tensions between the world's two largest economic powers overshadowed the economic landscape in 2019
It reflected on investment and manufacturing prospects and weakened business and consumer confidence levels, resulting in continued
The slowdown in global economic growth, and the growth rate of international trade fell to its lowest level in the wake of the financial crisis
Global uncertainty and the prevalence of uncertainty about the outlook for the Under these developments, institutions have been reduced
Compared with previous estimates issued in the international economic growth estimates for 2019 and 2020
the beginning of the year. It also warned of a number of risks arising from worsening trade tensions and their potential impact on business growth
The global economic and international trade and its repercussions on the budgets of households and companies, especially in light of the rise
This may result in significant fluctuations in asset prices and capital movements
Hence financial shocks. Unlike in 2007, before the global financial crisis broke out
Policymakers have many reliable mechanisms and rescue packages to minimize the potential impact.
In view of any potential crises, the key interest rates in advanced economies have fallen to near zero levels
Fiscal space has declined in many countries. Accordingly, the main policy priorities are coordination
To resolve trade disputes, return to the umbrella of the multilateral trading system, and its trade liberalization mechanisms
International takes into account the interests of all countries. In addition, it is important to strengthen policy space by continuing to adopt monetary policies
A disciplined and pro-growth financial system to enhance the resilience of countries around the world to potential shocks. Besides the need to implement
Structural reforms to support productivity and competitiveness and encourage innovation to increase the efficiency of labor markets and products.
Global growth trends
(1) IMF reduction
His forecast for growth rate
Global economy included in the July issue of
World Economic Outlook Report at 1.0
Percentage points in 2019 and 2020, compared to
His forecast issued in April of the same year, where
IFAD projected a 2.3% growth in the global economy
Growth rate to 5.3 per cent in 2019
In 2020, compared to 6.3 percent for growth
This comes in light of weak activity
Global tensions
Commercial, high levels of uncertainty and impact
Investment, consumption and international trade.
With respect to the group of advanced economies,
The IMF raised its Group growth forecast to 9.1 in
Percent in 2019 and to 7.1 percent in 2019
2020, compared to the pace of growth of 2.2%
Expectations for 2019 increase by 1.0
Than expected, which was a percentage point in April
This is due to higher US growth forecasts
And some other advanced economies. in a

1
International Monetary Fund, (2019). “World Economic
Outlook Update ”, July.
In this regard, the US economy is expected to grow by about 6.2%
In 2019, then the pace of growth slowed to
9.1 per cent in 2020, with the impact of declining
Fiscal stimulus policies.
Growth prospects in both the euro zone were also raised to
3.1 percent in 2019 and 6.1 percent in 2019
2020, raising the UK growth forecast
To 3.1 percent in 2019, and 4.1 percent a year
 .2020
Germany's growth forecast for 2019 has been cut
Because of the unexpected weakness of demand levels, which
This in turn affects investment. An economy is also estimated to grow
Japan fell 9.0 percent in 2019, down
By 1.0 percentage points from the IMF forecast
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April, with a decline expected
Japan's economy grew to 4.0 per cent during the
2020.
In terms of the expected growth rate of developing countries
As emerging market economies, the Fund expected a decline
During the year



9 compared to 5.4 per cent in 2018
The Group's growth rate is expected to recover to 7.4%
In this regard, the IMF has reduced
The Group's growth forecasts compared to its forecasts issued in
April increased by 3.0 percentage points in 2019
And 1.0 percentage points in 2020, against the background of reduction
Forecasts for all major economies in the Group.
Emerging and developing Asia are also expected to register higher
Group-wide growth rate is estimated at 2.6 per cent
In 2019 and 2020, and forecasts are lower
Increased by 1.0 percentage points from the April issue of
Global Economic Prospects report, which reflects
To a large extent, the impact of tariffs on trade
And investment.
In China, the negative effects of tariff escalation
Customs, weak external demand to increase
The pressure on an economy is already in a phase of slowdown
And needs to strengthen regulatory frameworks to mitigate
Increased reliance on debt. Predictions indicate
The growth rate reached 2.6 percent in 2019 and 6 percent
In 2020.
In the same context, the World Bank explained
Global economic growth slows in 2019,
Weak investment rates have resulted in economies
Emerging markets and developing countries are losing potential
Growth potential. The balance of risk tends to be exposed
The economic outlook is severely negative
Continuous escalation of trade tensions.
The global economic growth rate is expected to decline
2019 fell to 6.2 percent, attributed to a decline
Growth in trade and investment activities
Expected at the beginning of the year. Growth is expected to recover
Gradually to 8.2 per cent by 2020
Driven
Global funding conditions are constantly improving and occurring
Slight recovery in developing country economies and markets
Upward.
In this context, the World Bank predicted a slowing rate
Growth in developed economies as a group in
2019 and 2020 to fall to 7.1 and 5.1 per cent
Respectively as a result of weak growth in the eurozone

2World Bank Group, (2019). “Heightened Tensions and
Subdued Investment ”, June.
Growth in the region is expected to decline to 2.1 per cent
In 2019, with a slight improvement in 2020 to 4.1
Economic activity has been weakened
Per cent as a result of being affected
Trade and domestic demand persist though
Monetary policy support. Expected as well
Growth in the United States
To 5.2 per cent this year and falling to 7.1 per
In 2020.
In developing countries, a recovery is expected
Growth in these economies from their lowest
Four years which reached 4 per cent in 2019 to
It was 6.4 percent during the period (2020-2021)
Growth rate in most regions of market economies
Emerging and developing countries are weaker than expected with
Falling external demand, non-domestic conditions
Supportive of growth in some Group countries. Still
Economic activity in East Asia and the Pacific
Pacific, South Asia strong.
The World Bank asserts that economic growth is more robust
Poverty reduction and improved levels of poverty
the living. For now, however, the momentum of recovery remains
The economy is weak, with debt levels shifting
Investment in developing countries
Without achieving their full potential. It is urgent that they do so
Developing countries are undertaking major structural reforms
Improve the business climate and attract investment.
They should also develop debt management and strengthen
Transparency is a top priority.
In this regard, the World Bank drew attention to the need
Emerging market economies and developing countries operate
Strengthening their preventive policy reserves,
And implement reforms capable of promoting growth prospects. And from
Reforms are necessary in order to strengthen
Private sector investment and productivity growth, particularly in
Low-income countries today face greater challenges
From the early 2000s.
In low-income countries, the World Bank predicted
Growth rates increased to 6 per cent in 2020
4.5 percent in 2019, but that will not be enough to bring about
The poorest countries have significantly reduced poverty rates. Facing


Concrete challenges due to fragility and isolation
And high poverty rates. If not
Entering a faster growth path, you will continue to target the cut
Extreme poverty rate to less than 3 per cent by
2030 is hard to come by.
(3) The UN expects
A large-scale slowdown
To the global economy amid continuing trade tensions,
And high policy uncertainty
Economic confidence, and declining levels of business confidence.
The United Nations was established in May 2019
It reduced its estimate of global economic growth to 7.2
Per cent in 2019 and to 9.2 per cent in 2019
2020 compared to the previous forecast in January of the same
Thr is
Due to the combination of a number of factors
Favorable economic growth in economies
Both developed and developing.
The organization pointed out that existing trade disputes from
It cuts expectations for a volume growth rate
International trade to 7.2 per cent in 2019
Compared with 4.3 per cent in 2018
Continued trade tensions and retaliatory responses
Between the major economies will have an impact
Growth rates in developing countries that depend
Export to developed economies. It may also hurt
Weak international trade activity and investment prospects
Over the medium term.
In this context, a weaker global growth outlook is cast
Overshadow efforts to implement the development plan
, Which set sustainable global targets for 2030
To eradicate poverty, promote prosperity and well-being
Environmental protection, where growth is constrained
Weak economic capacity of countries to provide
Investments in key areas such as education
And health and climate change adaptation and infrastructure
Sustainable.
On the other hand, the United Nations has warned of an increase
Economic Risks
Potentially due to change in
The increasing frequency and intensity of natural disasters was highlighted
Highlight the growing threats of change
Climate, especially for the weakest economies. Entails

3 UN, (2019). “World Economic Situation and Prospects
as of Mid-2019.
This is a stronger and more coordinated multilateral approach
To achieve global climate goals,
Related to adjusting carbon pricing mechanisms to reflect cost
Production and consumption of creon.
For its part, the ECO noted
(4) and development
Slowdown in global economic activity
During the first half of 2019, continued weakness
Economic growth recorded in 2018 due
Escalating trade tensions have resulted in a decline
Trade and investment growth rates, especially in Europe
China is adding to the decline in men's confidence levels
Business and consumers, and continuing uncertainty conditions
On policies. Fiscal policies eased
Concessional cash and favorable conditions in labor markets
Impact of this slowdown on household and corporate budgets
In advanced economies. In the end, the organization expects
The growth rate of the world economy dropped to 2.3%
This year, compared to 5.3 percent for growth
By 2018, before rising to 4.3 in a general investigator
Cent next year.
The WTO also predicted a decline in the growth rate of international trade
To about 2 per cent this year as it is affected
Trade tensions and the resulting decline
For manufacturing and investment activities. for example
The growth rate of investment in group countries decreased
From 20 per cent in 2017 to 5.2 per cent
In 2018 against the backdrop of these developments
It also continued to decline during the previous year
Ongoing.
Commodity markets
Exporting petroleum
The Organization of the
(OPEC) indicates that demand for oil is expected to witness
Increased by about 1.1 million barrels / day to reach
92.99 million barrels per day during 2019, which is
It is a decrease compared to the level of increase in demand
The world oil price recorded in 2018 amounted to 40.1
Attributed to slowing activity
Million barrels / day
Global economic growth. The organization is expected to come
The most important part of the increase in global oil demand
Non-OECD countries



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ARAB MONETARY FUND LAUNCHES THE SEPTEMBER EDITION OF THE ARAB ECONOMIC PROSPECTS REPORT, INCLUDING AN UPDATE ON THE GROWTH AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE ARAB COUNTRIES FOR 2019 AND 2020 Empty Re: ARAB MONETARY FUND LAUNCHES THE SEPTEMBER EDITION OF THE ARAB ECONOMIC PROSPECTS REPORT, INCLUDING AN UPDATE ON THE GROWTH AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE ARAB COUNTRIES FOR 2019 AND 2020

Post by claud39 on Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:15 am

Especially from India and China. In contrast, it is expected that
Non-OPEC oil supply is increasing
Per day to reach an estimated 97.1 million barrels /
Million barrels per day 2019, down to 39.64 years
About the level of record increase in supply
Barrel / day. The previous year's oil amounting to 9.2 million
The increase in oil supply remains from
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA The most significant contributor to the increase was
(5) in the expected supply during the year
 .
In this context, the production record of the United States of America
Crude oil reached 0.11 million barrels / day in the year
The US Energy Information Agency expects a rise in 2018
Production to record levels
Million barrels per day 2019, about 3.12 years
(6) 3.13 million barrels per day in 2020
.
As a result of developments in the oil markets, it is expected that
The total demand for OPEC oil is about
7.30 b / d during 2019 is low
Compared to the previous year's levels
6.31 million barrels, while it is expected to decline to 4.29
Million barrels / day in 2020
(7)
 .
In this regard, the main producing countries
Oil inside and outside OPEC has been agreed in early July
OPEC + agreement to extend until 2019
March of 2020 under the continued superiority
Oil supply on oil demand levels
In order to move towards restoring market balance.
World oil prices witnessed significant volatility during the year
The first half of 2019 is affected by the escalation of sharpness
Trade tensions and by some geopolitical factors,
It stood at 5.64 as of September 2019
A barrel
$
(8)
During the week, against $ 8.69 / barrel
In this regard, the IMF predicts
International oil prices fall this year by 1.4
Per barrel
To $ 5.65 per cent
2019, a decline of 5.2 per cent next year
To reach 9.63 per cent in 2020
The average price of Brent crude is around

5 OPEC (2019). “OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report”, Aug.
6 EIA, (2019). “Short-Term Energy Outlook”, Aug.
7 OPEC (2019). Op. cit.
8
For the period from the beginning of the year until the ninth of September 2019.
Barrel in 2019
$ 65 level
And 2020
 (9)
, While the Energy Information Agency expects
Brent crude prices are set to
It ranged from around 66-67 dollars per barrel during the year
2020 and 2019 (10)
 .
Oil markets have been on the rise since 2014
Up
Severe in the level of price fluctuations affects the accuracy
Expectations vary widely
Future price forecasts.
These fluctuations reflect changes in market fundamentals,
Technical considerations for shale oil production,
Developments in the dollar price and contract market transactions
Futures.
Regarding other commodity prices, from
Generally expected price stability of metals and commodities
(11) Agriculture in 2019 and 2020
.
Interest and exchange rates
Most international central banks retreated from
Previous trends to return to traditional routes
Monetary policy following the transformation of the economic landscape
Economic growth and trade
Uncertainty caused by high levels of uncertainty
Trade tensions and shadows on prospects
Developed economies, and the necessity they require
Continued catalytic effect of macroeconomic policies
Above all, monetary policy. Reinforces these trends
Lower inflation compared to levels
Targeted by the main central banks, the slowdown
Global demand, commodity price stability outlook
Essential.
In this context, the Fed kept
Interest rate remained unchanged
Meeting in June 2019 at 25.2
50.2 percent. The decision was taken by a majority of the members of the Council
Who also predicted that the board will tend to reduce the price
Interest in 2020 under the conviction of its members constantly
The US economy needs the momentum of


Monetary easing policy to maintain growth rates
M
The
Recently achieved a cinema after the Fed cut
U.S. inflation forecasts for 2019
For the year 2020 to 1.9, 1.5 percent to 1.8 percent
percent. While the Federal Reserve predicted
US economic growth rate of 1.2
Percent in 2019, and 2 percent in 2020.
Unemployment is expected to fall to 6.3 percent
To keep moving
In 2019
The easing position of monetary policy to support the economy
For the time being, the Federal Reserve
The first in 10 years - the rate cut
At its July meeting
A quarter of a percentage point to between 2 and 25.2 per cent.
It is noteworthy that 2018 witnessed the establishment of the Reserve Board
The US Federal Reserve has conducted four rounds of price hikes
Interest rate of 25 basis points each to reach a price
Interest on dollars to a range of 25.2 to
50.2 per cent.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has recently maintained a steady pace
The monetary policy rate is stable at a negative level
At 40.0 per cent, the refinancing rate is at
Level of zero per cent, at its meeting in a month
The Bank also announced its intention to maintain
On interest rates fixed at this level up
Mid-2020 and its trend to launch a package
New stimulus during the second half of 2019
To support economic growth. This led to the euro falling
Against the dollar, trade tension is growing between
United States of America and the European Union,
Background The dispute between the two sides over the support provided by each
Besides to the national airlines, the dispute over
Devaluation as a means of commercial competition.
The Bank of England kept interest rates stable
At its last meeting at 75.0 per cent
June, despite growth expectations
To zero in the second half of the year
Future interest rate paths will be adopted in 2019
On developments regarding the Brexit agreement
 The European Union This agreement was reached
Sua
Connection or not.

12 OECD, (2019). “Economic Outlook”, May.
In Japan, the Bank of Japan is still far away
About returning to the traditional paths of monetary policy in
Inflation is stable at less than half
Its target is 2 per cent, which is expected
With it the interest rate remains at extremely negative levels
10.0 per cent, the survival of the yield on Treasury bonds
Ten years at zero levels in the future
Perspective as long as inflation remains below its level
To what
Target. Based on the above, continuation is expected
The Bank of Japan is embracing large-scale programs
Monetary easing to stimulate economic growth and reach rates
Targeted for inflation. The People's Bank of China went
To reduce the legal reserve ratio to stimulate levels
Granting credit to support economic growth at the beginning of the year
.2019
Referred to,
Economic and financial developments
Based
The dollar index saw a basket against six
Increased by approximately 1 per cent
Currencies up
Second quarter of 2019 compared to the recorded level
During the first quarter.
International Trade
A large-scale slowdown is expected to lead to growth
To weaken
In almost all countries of the world
Growth of international trade to rates ranging from 2-3
According to the estimates of international organizations which is
This represents the weakest growth rate of international trade since
The global financial crisis. This is considered twice the growth rate
Business in China is responsible for
The expected decline in the growth rate of international trade terms
The growth rate of imports is expected to decline
Chinese halved during the period (2019-2020)
To 24.3 per cent compared to 50.7 per cent
Average growth during the period 2017-
(2018) 12
.
This slowdown in the growth rate of international trade is attributable to
Trade tensions increased as the United States
In 2018 to raise tariffs
On their will from a number of states within the list of goods
Estimated value of about $ 300 billion)
Accounting for about 12 percent of US imports),
Mostly from China. Therefore, these countries went to


Adopt adverse responses and mutually raise value
Tariffs on imports from the United States
List of goods valued at about $ 150
This has led to higher prices and increased prices
Levels of uncertainty than it has had many consequences for
Manufacturing, investment and international trade activities
Signal.
In addition, the United States of America announced
During the first half of 2019
Impose additional customs duties on its imports of
The EU targets airlines and food
This is added to the list of additional customs duties
That have already been imposed on imports of steel
And aluminum.
Significant estimates of the US Census Bureau
The United States indicated that tariff escalation could be improved
The United States of America and Chinese
Decrease in the size of the volatility
Both sides are 15% since the year of September
2018 Delicious Shieeyehead The Second Jolly Application of Lift
Customs tariff which is also reflected on the
SialCell is a global value and property in the Asian countries of Asia
(13) and other business partners
.
Economic risks
Some risks surrounding the outlook are expected to continue
Economic growth in developed and emerging countries is
Most important in:
- Trade tensions escalate
Trade policy uncertainty remains
Represents a source
No matter the negative risks to investment
Global jobs and living standards. Also affect
New customs restrictions introduced during the year
2018 and 2019 on disposable income levels

13 UN, (2019). “World Economic Situation and Prospects”,
May.
14 OECD, (2019). Op cit.
And the living standards of consumers, especially households
Low income, and increases production costs
For companies.
In this context, the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) was interested
And economic development by estimating the economic impact of customs
Applied between the United States and China
Global economic growth, international trade,
Growth rate of the United States of America
And China. This is expected to result in a rate decline
International trade growth of about 5.1 percentage points
The growth rate of world economic activity has decreased
Approximately 7.0 percentage points. Add to the expected drop
The growth rate of the United States and China
And 1.1 percentage points, respectively, during the year
2021 (15) (14)
.
On the other hand, the current atmosphere of trade tensions threatens
The rules of the established multilateral trading system
Over the past decades, it has been crowned with the establishment of an organization
In 1995, the need for global trade was highlighted
Extensive reform of the world trading system in order to
Maintain the gains of international trade liberalization that have been made
Accessed over the past decades. In this context, stand out
The severity of the current stalemate with respect to not set
New arbitrators by the United States of America
WTO Dispute Resolution Board
Succeeding the arbitrators whose appointment expired in a month
Minimum of
Last December, where currently available
Arbitrators in this Council at the time it testifies
Concrete in the number of trade disputes Council increased
Global.
 )15th(
This estimate includes the expected impact of the United States of America
US $ 200 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports
10 per cent to 25 per cent as of mid-May 2019 (with
Take reciprocal measures from China on US imports worth 60
The additional effect if a tariff of 25 percent is imposed
Percent on the remaining bilateral trade items between China and the states
As of July 2019
Expected to increase by about 50 basis points in investment risk as a result
These developments last for three years before they slowly fade after
that.


- The slowdown of the Chinese economy and its proliferation implications
Tee
Back in the 1980s, the economy was contributing
2 The Chinese economy in the world economy is very limited
It began to rise until it reached 16 per cent
It is expected to reach 100 percent in 2018
That would soon make it 19 per cent by 2023
Of the contribution of the US economy to the economy
Global which rose from 8.21 per cent in
1980 to 23 per cent in 2018 is expected to
Up to 21 per cent in 2023.
Despite China's adoption of a package of stimulus policies to support
Economic growth and avoid a sharp decline in activity
Economic slowdown, an unexpectedly sharp slowdown in
China to have serious consequences for growth
Global, international trade, financial markets under
The strong correlation between China and other countries
the world.
Similar outbreaks during the period
The world has seen traces
(2015-2016) when growth levels were affected
And trade in China which is reflected on many
Other economies and led to market volatility
Global financial and the widening risk premium on bonds
Companies and emerging markets during that period
Reduce global stock prices by about 10 per cent.
The results indicate the simulation models applied by the OECD
To estimate the expected impact of a slowdown
The Chinese economy continues by 2 percentage points
The shock of slowing economic demand in
China will lead to:
- Low GDP growth rate
Percentage points per year, global by nearly 4.0
This shock will be affected some more
Countries such as Japan and commodity-producing economies
And other economies in East Asia. As you may
Leads to a lower growth rate of import volume
Annually in Chinese at about 25.3 percentage points
The average in the two years following this shock, than
Harms the growth of export volume of partners
The two main commercials, including Germany and many
Of Asian economies.
- Increased uncertainty and therefore high risk
Investment, and low equity prices. in a
In this context, the impact of the economic slowdown shock
Chinese will be bigger, where it will affect
Corporate and household budgets. Assuming height
The investment risk is about 50 basis points and has declined
Share prices increased by 10 per cent for two years
As a result of this shock, it may lead to a decline
The rate of growth of the world GDP
7.0 percentage points per year on average, falling
The growth rate of world trade is close to a point
One percentage per year in the two years following the occurrence
Shock.
- The immediate effects will be from a slowdown
China's economy is bigger if no makers can
Policies around the world from embracing
Policies to mitigate the impact of the crisis,
Limited policy space in many countries
Developed and developed. So the collection effect
The
The shock will rise further and may lead to
Low GDP growth rate
The global average ranges from 8.0 to 9.0 points
Celsius per year over the next two years
Shock. It will also reduce trade growth
Global average annual percentage point
In the same period.
- Britain's withdrawal from the European Union without
Reach an agreement
Uncertainty remains over completion of withdrawal arrangements
Britain from the EU casts a shadow over prospects
The British economy and the European Union in the longer term
Short and medium withdrawals are unlikely to be completed
Without reaching an agreement in this regard
Increases and weakens potential economic risks
UK and EU growth rates. In this
Context, it is estimated that the increase in level


Customs duties between the two sides will lead to
Britain's growth rate dropped by about 2 percentage points
(16) during the two years following the completion of the withdrawal
.
The effects may be stronger if the withdrawal process is affected
Cross-border movements of goods and individuals
Britain's loss of preferential benefits it was getting
Trade arrangements between the EU in advance
And other countries, which may cause bottlenecks in chains
Integrated cross-border supply. It can also be
Economic costs are greater if levels fall
Business confidence and the impact of financial markets
Its spreading effects extend to other countries of the Union
European Union.
Although both sides take emergency measures to ease
The effect of not reaching an agreement, the separation from
The EU without an agreement will remain a shock
Great negative, considering that Britain is a business partner
Important for many European countries. In the Federation
European Union, some of its smaller countries may be exposed
Strong trade and investment links with Britain, including
So Ireland, the Netherlands and Denmark shock to slow down
External demand, leading to significant adjustment costs
In certain regions or sectors. Organization estimates
Economic cooperation and development indicates that these exports
Countries to Britain may fall by about 15 per cent on
Medium term if WTO rules are applied
Global on its trade with Britain in particular
Instead of food and agricultural equipment
(17) Trade arrangements within the European Union
.
The fragility of financial markets is increasing
Increasing public and private debts
Low response, embraced slowing growth and inflation
Major central banks easing monetary policies.
These recent shifts have helped monetary policy
Stability of global financial markets and capital flows
Money to emerging economies. With it, the period
A long time to facilitate monetary policy can lead
Aggravated financial imbalances, including increased accumulation
Increase the risk of financial stability
Medium term.
In this context, international statistics indicate an increase
Significant in the volume of global indebtedness by about 30 per cent
Compared to the levels recorded during 2008 and reached
Now more than twice the global GDP.
The gravity of the growing problem of global indebtedness is
At present the unprecedented rise in indebtedness
Family and corporate sectors.
In this context, the indebtedness of the non-financial sector has been witnessed
(Corporate and individual debts) almost doubled
Compared to 2008 levels of 13
$ 1 trillion, while levels have fallen
The quality of debt is a precursor to escalating risks
(18) Finance
.
Thus, any slowdown or recession will affect
Negatively both the family sector and corporate sector capacity
The repayment of their debts will result in sharp fluctuations
(19) in the prices of assets and financial markets


Basic assumptions of the report
Growth rate of world economy and international trade
Global economic activity is expected to slow down by 2020-2020, as global economic growth is expected to decline during the period
It is expected to be around 0.3 per cent during the period, compared with 3.3 per cent recorded in 2018
The growth rate of international trade fell to 6.2 per cent from 5.3 per cent in 2018 compared to 5.3 per cent in 2018
2017 of 2.5 per cent. Arab countries are expected to be affected by these developments, which will affect levels of external demand, especially
Regarding the expected impact of the slowdown of the most prominent trade partners for the Arab countries represented in China, the European Union and the United States.
The United States, whose markets absorb about 56 per cent of Arab exports.
Oil prices
Evidence in international oil markets suggests that demand for oil has slowed due to the expected decline in global economic activity
And international trade. On the supply side, the increase in non-OPEC oil supply levels, especially from OPEC, is expected to continue
Up to 4.12 million barrels, the United States of America is expected to record oil production
Daily during 2019 and to
Accordingly, oil supply is expected to continue to outpace demand levels within the horizon
The decision, while the decision of the major producer countries inside and outside OPEC to extend the OPEC + agreement until March 2020
Excess levels of markets. Therefore, we maintain our global oil price forecast at levels between 60 and 65
During the forecast horizon.
The stability of world oil prices at these levels will affect the economies of the Arab countries, which will be reflected in the level of revenues
Although its relative importance has recently declined to about 3.56 per cent and about 3.36 per cent of total
Revenues and exports, respectively, in 2018, compared to a level of nearly 70 per cent of total
World oil prices by the end of 2014, but they remain a key factor affecting public spending,
Credit, and investments in oil-exporting Arab countries. With regard to Arab oil-importing countries, the stability
Global oil prices support these countries' public budgets, especially those that have not yet completed energy price liberalization reforms
Impact offers fuel subsidies. At the level of all Arab countries the decline in world oil prices will be
Support for spending where it will help
Reduce the cost of production and transport in these countries, and increase the levels of income available for spending.
interest rates
As international central banks in developed economies retreat from the paths back to traditional monetary policy, the situation is expected to remain
Economic growth in the Arab countries. In light of the above, the easing of monetary policy is expected until 2020 al
Interest rates on the dollar, which is expected to reflect on the interest rates of the Arab currencies fixed against the dollar and will grant
Monetary policies are an opportunity to stimulate economic growth by keeping interest rates at encouraging levels of credit and activity support
Arab countries that adopt economic systems. Exchange rates will also be resilient as factors pushing up have receded
The value of the dollar versus its currency, which means lower levels of external debt service as a proportion of exports of goods and services.



All forecasts of the baseline scenario are subject to periodic review, allowing international developments at various levels to be taken into account.
Associated with the underlying assumptions and then update those projections in the September 2019 edition of this report. The ongoing review process includes developments in
Global economic activity, international trade, and global oil markets, particularly with regard to levels of oil supply and demand and levels of commitment
product. The review process also includes oil producing countries with an agreement to reduce developments in the exchange rate of the US dollar and other major currencies.


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ARAB MONETARY FUND LAUNCHES THE SEPTEMBER EDITION OF THE ARAB ECONOMIC PROSPECTS REPORT, INCLUDING AN UPDATE ON THE GROWTH AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE ARAB COUNTRIES FOR 2019 AND 2020 Empty Re: ARAB MONETARY FUND LAUNCHES THE SEPTEMBER EDITION OF THE ARAB ECONOMIC PROSPECTS REPORT, INCLUDING AN UPDATE ON THE GROWTH AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE ARAB COUNTRIES FOR 2019 AND 2020

Post by claud39 on Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:21 am

Based on the current state of the global economy and the consequent slowdown in external demand levels, this release was made
The outlook for the Arab economy has been lowered to 5.2 percent compared to April
Exporting oil
Of the same report. This is a reflection of lower economic growth estimates in each Arab country
And imported him as a result of slowing external demand and its expected impact on oil and non-oil exports. On the other hand,
The economic growth outlook for the Arab countries during 2020 was maintained at a level of around 3 per cent
The expected recovery of the global economy remained, and the positive effects of economic and policy reform programs continued
Macroeconomic reforms and structural reforms implemented by Arab countries to support economic stability and stimulate activity
Diversification of the production and export base.
Among the Arab countries, 2.2 percent in 2019 compared to oil exporters, growth forecasts have been reduced to around
This figure comes in light of the overall impact of the Group's countries
The current low levels of output in the oil sector in light of the low quantities of production, both reflecting the commitment
Note
OPEC has agreed to adjust the production quantities, which will be extended until March 2020, especially in light of
Arab countries' commitment to this agreement, or reflecting the decline in global demand
The slowdown in global economic activity. At the GCC level, from
Ranges around
The group is expected to grow 1.2 percent in 2019 from 1.1 percent growth
The growth rate is expected to continue to 7.2 percent in 2020
Economic growth in this group of countries driven by the moderate growth rate of the non-oil sector that benefited from the initiatives
Policies to increase levels of economic diversification, improve business environments, and the role of policies
Macroeconomic and sovereign wealth funds supporting growth
. As for the other Arab group
The group's growth rate in 2019 is also expected to improve to around 7.2 percent from 4.0 percent
Growth in 2018 due to improved internal conditions in some of the Group's countries and forecasts
In light of the exemption of some of them from compliance with the OPEC agreement due to the need for these countries to increase
To support economic growth. This group of countries is expected to record higher oil production in activity levels
Economic growth, with their economies growing at around 0.5 per cent in 2020 as demand continues to improve
the local.
As for Arab oil importers, they are expected to grow by 6.3 percent this year against 8.3 percent
Expectations of slowing levels of external demand
Last year given, some of these countries were exposed to climatic conditions
And unfavorable internal conditions for growth. On the other hand, this group expects to grow at a high pace next year and grow
By about 4 per cent. Some of these countries continue to benefit from the positive effects of adopting economic reform programs
Economic growth.
It helped to overcome some of the internal and external imbalances and provided a supportive fiscal space
Arab countries have been adopting several reforms to restore macroeconomic stability and increase growth
Economic growth, creating more jobs, increasing levels of economic diversification, and enhancing productivity and competitiveness
Intensified measures to achieve fiscal discipline and increased levels of flexibility

(21)
Estimates of the projections of the GDP growth rate for Arab countries at constant prices are based on several sources, including economic growth
In the questionnaire report, "Prospects of the Arab economy", which is concerned with monitoring the expectations of specialists in the concerned authorities, especially central banks and
And the ministries of finance in relation to macroeconomic performance in Arab countries on a number of areas of concern, including economic growth.
The estimates in this section are also based on the results of some country standard models and sectoral output estimates by the Arab Monetary Fund.
To the national accounts data to look at the growth prospects in the Arab countries, as well as on a number of countries' sources
And other relevant local authorities.
It should be noted that the growth rate of the Arab Group in this report does not include Syria.
Second: Updating the macroeconomic performance projections for the Arab countries 2020-2020
(21) Economic growth


Arab economies, and building policy space to strengthen their position vis-à-vis internal economic volatility
And external. Moreover, policies are directed towards supporting the education and health sectors and improving social protection networks
To reduce the vulnerability of vulnerable groups to these reforms. In light of the above, the main policy priorities are:
Below:
- Increased levels of economic diversification
Over the past decades, Arab countries have adopted a range of reforms aimed at diversifying economic structures
The Arab countries as a group have made relative progress in diversifying production structures
The contribution of the oil and strategic industries ranged from 40-40 percent of output during the five decades
The latter. However, they have yet to intensify efforts to diversify the structures of national economies
And increase the contribution of other economic sectors, particularly the manufacturing sector, whose contribution to
Gross domestic product (GDP) is limited at 4.10 per cent, compared to an average of 22 per cent
In developing countries and emerging markets, and about 16 percent of the global average. In this regard, the importance of continuing
Reforms aimed at strengthening the role of the private sector in economic activity and the need to improve environments
Business, promotion of micro, small and medium enterprises, and development of the financial sector.
- The shift towards knowledge economies
In the midst of developments in the world under the Fourth Industrial Revolution, a shift is needed
Arab economies to knowledge economies, where the contribution of Arab countries is still limited in this area. Provides
The shift towards knowledge economies is a great opportunity to promote economic growth and create more jobs for employment
إذا If it is related to traditional sectors such as the qualified agricultural and industrial sectors in the Arab countries
And services that can take advantage of accelerated technological development to support productivity and competitiveness, or in relation to sectors
Which are linked to new technologies that emerged within the framework of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
Recently, steps have been taken in the transition to a knowledge economy and to take advantage of the gains that Arab countries have begun
Provided by the Fourth Industrial Revolution. In the field of Artificial Intelligence, it is estimated
Mainly from Arab countries as well as a number of other countries (Middle East countries) that are formed
It will achieve economic gains of about $ 320 billion (11 percent of GDP).
These gains will increase in a number of Arab countries
For example, gains in Saudi Arabia are estimated at $ 135 billion (4.12 percent of output)
In the UAE at about $ 96 billion (6.13 per cent of GDP)
The rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) estimates gains at around 55 billion (2.8 percent) of GDP
Gains will be extended to other Arab countries, with Egypt estimated to benefit 43 billion
. These gains assume that the policy mix ($ 22) (7.7 percent of GDP) will remain
The current situation in the Arab countries as it stands. Gains can therefore exceed that level in case
Whether Arab countries adopt proactive strategies in support of digital economic transformation. The same applies in a market
IoT (Things of Internet), one of the most important transformations in the revolution
Which can unleash significant economic potential in Arab countries. In this context, let this
For example, the GCC countries have increased the pace of economic growth by 11%
(23) percent over the next decade


- Supporting human capital
Inequality in human capital across countries - along with in-kind capital and population growth -
(24) Significantly explain variations in the level of economic growth
. It was developed by the World Bank
Recently a new indicator
The measurement of human capital is based on the calculation of the gap between reality in a field
Pension in a country and
The
Health and Education. In other words, this indicator estimates the overall skills, competencies and physical and mental health,
In comparison to the situation that a child could not have obtained when he or she reached the age of 18
The level of performance and efficiency of the health and education systems in the country to which they belong.
Singapore leads the index, ranking first out of 157 countries ranked, while ranking first
An Arab country, Bahrain, ranks 47th globally, while most Arab countries are in the bottom ranks
This indicator. Human capital theory, which has greatly contributed to the renewal of development economics,
Understand why growth rates vary in countries that are not very different in terms of natural resources and structures
Infrastructure. Arab countries need to focus on capital support
More attention to education, training, scientific research, health and
Excellence
 .
- Reducing unemployment
The challenge of reducing unemployment remains at the top of the economic challenges facing Arab countries
According to the World Bank, the unemployment rate in the Arab countries is about 10 percent
. Young people between the ages of 15 and 24 (26) are represented in the world
About 42 percent of the total
Unemployed in 2018, while the proportion of unemployed females is about 30 percent
This is more than twice the global average. Unemployment is also concentrated among educated and new entrants
Labor markets in a large number of Arab countries. Reducing unemployment requires a range of policies
Interventions include a comprehensive transformation of the structures of Arab economies and increased levels of market dynamics
Strengthening the role of the private sector, and initiatives and policies to support regional and global integration.
- More attention to microeconomic reforms to increase productivity and competitiveness
Arab countries need to pay more attention to microeconomic reforms that encompass all policies
 Respect
It aims to reduce economic distortions and achieve efficient use of economic resources
Reforms of labor or product markets. In this context, labor and product markets face a number of
Arab countries face challenges to the need to increase their flexibility levels
Increase productivity and competitiveness. This is evidenced by the gap between the Arab world and countries
The efficiency of labor markets and products. For example, community data indicates
The difference between labor market efficiency levels across the Arab region,
The OECD countries increased significantly in 2018, in four key areas:
Innovation, technical readiness, education and training, and labor market efficiency.

- Strengthening policy space to increase the resilience of Arab economies versus economic shocks
The strong impact of the international economic environment on the growth paths of the Arab countries is noticeable
This is evidenced by the high value of the correlation coefficient between the growth rates of Arab economies and the world economy
Around 84.0 over the past two decades, suggesting a strong positive correlation between the two variables. The promotion
The levels of resilience of Arab economies to economic fluctuations call for increased levels of diversification
More attention to strengthening policy space, including policies to achieve discipline
Financial sustainability, increase the flexibility of exchange rate regimes and target inflation
Countries, which have witnessed a decline in some countries and enhanced levels of external reserves in some countries recently
The latter.
- Supporting regional integration efforts
Arab countries have made significant strides in economic integration since the launch of the FTA
Arab countries aiming at increasing levels of intra-commodity trade and removing tariff and non-tariff barriers
To reach the Arab Customs Union, which will be followed by negotiations to reach the Arab Common Market as a class
Deeper than Arab economic integration, and efforts to promote intra-Arab merchandise trade will only succeed
In the liberalization of trade in services in the Arab region and the promotion of intra-Arab trade
Go hand in hand
In services.
Recently, Arab countries have been keen to integrate trade in services into intra-trade liberalization negotiations
Recognition by Arab countries of the strategic importance of trade in services and a step towards deepening the level of integration
The Arab economic sector, with the services sector contributing about 48% of the GDP
Arab countries, and about 54 per cent of operating levels. These efforts culminated in the adoption of the Arab Convention
To liberalize trade in services between Arab countries as an agreement independent of the Greater Arab Free Trade Area,
It is expected to enter into force during the second half of 2019
Increasing intra-Arab trade levels to similar levels in international economic blocs
Growth and employment opportunities. Supporting regional integration also requires parallel efforts to catalyze
(27) Investments and Inter-Arab Capital Transfers
.
Following a brief review of growth prospects in the Arab region, the following section presents growth forecasts
Oil-exporting countries.

Wall: Arab oil exporting countries
Growth estimates for the Group were lowered in 2019
To about 2.2 per cent in light of the challenges facing the activity
Global economic slowdown
Oil demand. In contrast, performance is expected to improve
Group economies next year to bring growth to
About 2.3 per cent on the back of expectations of return paths
The gradual recovery of global economic activity. Vary
Estimates of growth among the countries included in the group.
On the one hand, economic growth is expected to continue to improve
Group of Gulf Cooperation Council States to about
1.2 percent in 2019 and 7.2 percent in 2019
The growth is mainly moderate for the sectors
2020 supported
Non-oil. On the other hand, growth rates remain
Other Arab oil states are volatile under
Internal situations, and low levels
Economic diversification, with countries expected to register
The group's growth rate is estimated at 7.2 per cent a year
2019, rising to 0.5 per cent next year.
A) The Gulf Cooperation Council States
The growth rate of the group is expected to rise to 1.2 in
This year against 2.1 percent growth
Output is expected to continue to be affected
The oil sector at constant prices decreased production quantities
OPEC agreement to adjust production quantities
During 2019 is a commitment
Which will continue until March 2020.
Formally
Growth in the Group will remain driven
Moderated by the moderate activity of the non-oil
Positive policies of the G-8 countries
Levels of economic diversification and the positive role of funds
Sovereign economies that mitigate the vulnerability of the economies of countries
The Group is subject to international economic fluctuations, as well as
These countries continue to implement reforms to attract investment
Through continuous improvement of business environments,
In addition to the supporting effect of growth by both policies
Cash and Finance.
Expectations at the level of the group countries
The following is an overview of the economic growth prospects in the GCC countries
the group:

28
General Authority for Statistics, National Accounts Indicators, Q1 2019.
In Saudi Arabia, GDP levels were recorded
in the rate of
At constant prices, growth of 4.2 percent in 2018
Versus a contraction of 7.0 percent during the year
In 2017, the Saudi economy benefited
Past of a number of factors represented by the rise
World oil prices and moderate growth in activities
In the non-oil sector.
On the other hand, the GDP growth rate increased
In the first quarter of 2019 to about 7.1%
Compared to 4.1 percent in the first quarter of 2014
Mainly recorded growth
This growth was driven by
In non-oil sector activities which grew by 1.2 in
This period is almost the same as during the growth rate
Growth in the first quarter of 2018
to me
The oil sector increased by 1% during the quarter
The growth rate in the same period was 5.0%
. The fastest growing segments from 2018 were
Transport, storage and communication, and financial services sectors
Insurance, real estate and business services all registered
By more than
Grew by 4 percent during that period. in general
The Kingdom's economic policies have helped
To other economic factors in the high contribution ratio
The non-oil sector in GDP stood at 7.57
(28) per cent
.
The programs included in the Kingdom's Vision are expected to continue
In Saudi Arabia 2030 ”and reforms
To improve the Kingdom's real growth rates in the medium term,
The government is working on a number of reforms
To stimulate investment and enhance confidence
Investors. This includes privatization and spending programs
Based on the economic contribution of capitalist oriented
Vital projects, as well as stimulus packages
Private sector, and the development of economic sectors and activities
As well as the active role of the Investment Fund
In promoting economic development and good governance
The development of the Kingdom's assets over the medium term
And productivity levels, among others
Initiatives aimed at achieving the Kingdom's vision


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ARAB MONETARY FUND LAUNCHES THE SEPTEMBER EDITION OF THE ARAB ECONOMIC PROSPECTS REPORT, INCLUDING AN UPDATE ON THE GROWTH AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE ARAB COUNTRIES FOR 2019 AND 2020 Empty Re: ARAB MONETARY FUND LAUNCHES THE SEPTEMBER EDITION OF THE ARAB ECONOMIC PROSPECTS REPORT, INCLUDING AN UPDATE ON THE GROWTH AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE ARAB COUNTRIES FOR 2019 AND 2020

Post by claud39 on Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:26 am

Saudi Arabia 2030, 'and improving growth rates
(29) Economic
.
In this context, a number of projected growth drivers are mentioned
During the forecast horizon, including:
- The Kingdom seeks to strengthen the assets of the Investment Fund
To $ 2 trillion by selling a stake
Government in some public companies, 50 investment
Of the Fund's assets abroad and utilization
Of these investments in diversification projects
Economic development. Recently, Saudi Aramco announced
Shareholders signed an agreement to acquire shares
A 70% majority in the Saudi company
SABIC Fund for Basic Industries
Public investments in Saudi Arabia, in
Deal worth $ 1.69 billion
(30) American
, Which is expected to help support assets
This fund and its investments.
Registered in the United States position
- Transformation th
US policy toward easing monetary policy
It will help maintain interest rate trends in the Kingdom
Favorable to support economic growth in 2019
And 2020.
- Expectations to increase the Kingdom's oil production levels
This year to compensate for any shortfalls
According to the developments of the oil market to provide production capacity
Additional to Saudi Arabia.
- The expected increase in the production of natural gas as indicated
Estimates of an expected increase in gas production by about
Doubled during the current decade.
Based on the above, the Saudi economy is expected to grow
At levels of 0.2 per cent in 2019,
The growth rate has risen to around 5.2 per cent a year
.2020
Prices
In the UAE, GDP grew
Firmware stood at 7.1 per cent in 2018, compared to about 5.0
Growth came on the back of 2017
M
Record of non-oil activities benefiting from improvement
Improved business climate and attractive investment environment. Also benefited

 Ministry of Finance, Saudi Arabia, (2019)
Al-Arabi, "September.
Saudi Aramco (2019). Saudi Aramco Signs Acquisition Agreement
SABIC has a majority shareholding of 70% of the Fund
Public Investment, ”March.
The oil sector increased from last year's increase
World oil price levels.
Growth is expected to continue to rise during the year
At the level of the oil sector is expected
Increasing the sector's output in light of the high production capacity
And export of oil to about 1.3 million barrels / day a year
 .2019
At the non-oil sector, growth is expected
The pace of growth reflects a large number of economic stimuli
 Those related to macroeconomic policies
Sua
(31) Business Environment and Climate
.
In this context, an improvement in the activities of the sector is expected
Chemistry, and the increase of
Strategy, Infrastructure and Sectors
Hospitality is highly stimulating
Growth, reflecting the activation of diversification of income streams,
The shift towards a highly productive competitive knowledge economy
Research and innovation, and the implementation of walking
For the Expo 2020 World Expo.
The National Innovation Strategy and Policy were also activated
In science, technology and innovation ”
Projects with an estimated investment of AED 300 billion
“2071 Centennial Emirates” as a long-term strategic vision
To prepare the country for post-oil and support diversification
Economic space, activating its space program, and increasing levels
Take advantage of the technologies involved in the industrial revolution
The first of these is "Artificial Intelligence".
In terms of foreign direct investment, it is expected to benefit
Economic activity from many international companies
To invest in the local market, especially from Europe and Eastern Europe
Asia, which will support foreign investment flows
Direct incoming to the state you are expected to reach
Benefiting from the issuance of $ 14 billion in 2020
New Foreign Direct Investment Law and Enabling Environment
Of the country's business climate.
Along with all of the above, an enabling business environment serves as an element
Attracting local and international investments and business
Ministry of Economy, UAE, (2019)
Al-Arabi, "September.


The commercial status of the state and logistics structures are enacted and renovated
Laws and legislations that prepare the environment and the environment
The business sector to play its role, which increases the capabilities of the state
Competitiveness and dedication as the best destination for owners
Capital, which helps attract investments
To stimulate tourism and develop its various capacities and sectors
Including SME laws
Foreign investment, mortgaging of movable assets to guarantee debt,
Bankruptcy and financial leasing.
All of the above have been translated into the UAE's achievement of advanced ranks
In the Doing Business 2019 report
Globally as the World Bank ranked 11th,
Ranked 7th globally in the International Competitiveness Index
World Competitiveness Center 2018
International Institute for Management Development.
On the other hand, stabilizing the financial situation will help
Enable the government to continue pro-growth government spending
Development and increase its efficiency levels. Levels will also be strengthened
Bank liquidity is the ability of banks to extend credit
And support non-oil economic activities to
Economic diversification to support and enhance its participation in development
Especially as US interest rate trends remain stimulating
To grow.
The UAE economy is expected to grow by 0.2%
In 2019, the growth rate rose to about 3 percent
In 2020, reflecting the positive economic impact
Expected to host Expo 2020.
(32) in Qatar
The economic growth rate declined slightly
In 2018 to 4.1% compared with 6.1%
Mainly at a pace
In 2017, growth came driven
Moderate growth recorded in the non-oil sector on the back
The activity of a number of economic sectors, led by a sector
Construction, the increase in world oil prices.
Forecasts will be affected in 2019 and 2020,
With a combination of global and local factors. Where expected
Economic growth
Driven by the survival of energy prices
At relatively high levels and stabilizing demand for,
Exports. While the trade-related tension between

 32 Qatar Central Bank, (2019)
Al-Arabi, "September.
33 Central Bank of Kuwait, Kuwait, (2019)
Al-Arabi, "September.
United States, China and OPEC +
To reduce oil supplies are key factors that may affect
Indirectly on Qatar's growth prospects. from where
Local factors, non-sector is expected to continue
Building on the strong performance of the oil sectors, the growth momentum
Industry and construction in line with the government's continued
Infrastructure development within the framework of the implementation of the diversification strategy
The construction sector is likely to continue
His strong support for growth.
Overall, GDP growth is expected to improve
Real GDP during 2019 and 2020, to grow by
Orbiting 8.2 per cent in 2019 and 2020.
In Kuwait, economic growth is expected to be affected by the trend
Aliyam Alsiyyyi Oil tents are calibrated in the Asiyiyyyuk Oil World
Developments related to the quantities of production, and growth
Capital expenditure, and the expected implementation of development plan projects
to
During the coming years, according to the new vision
2035, “Accelerate the pace of financial reform
(33) and regional geopolitical developments
 .
Due to the extractive value structure, the sector's contribution is high
An estimated 42 per cent of total output
(34) Local
GDP is expected to be affected
During 2019 and 2020, developments in relation to
Oil production levels, while sector growth rates will be affected
Oil prices are expected to decline in 2019
And stability in 2020.
Nevertheless, the output of the sector, particularly in the coming year, is expected to benefit
2020 of the government sought to enhance oil refining capacity
Through the entry of a number of projects in the field of oil production
Refining into production during the forecast horizon, where these include
Projects The operation of the Zour oil refinery with investments
Estimated at $ 16 billion with an estimated production capacity of $ 615 billion
A barrel per day production of "clean fuel", the draft
Investment of $ 12 billion to develop oil refining capacity.
Accordingly, the Kuwaiti economy is expected to register an estimated growth rate
By 6.1 percent in 2019, and overall growth improved
Next to 5.2 per cent.
Arab Monetary Fund (2019)
Consolidated.


In Oman, GDP will be recorded at constant prices
By Nusseibeh
Growth of 4.2 percent in 2018 against a contraction
Its impact on 2017 was 8.0 per cent
Asian oil prices have increased, and volumes have increased
Production in the second half of the year.
In contrast, the pace of economic growth is expected to be affected
During the current and next year, we will continue with the developments
OPEC +, as well as in terms of production
Which is expected to decline during the year
In 2019 and stable in 2020.
Amia Femia relates to developments in non-oil herd is restricted
Eid showed the universality of the Tahsiyeis in the shadow of Eid's rise
Omanis working in the private sector are 5 per cent
By the end of the first quarter of 2019, hospitality was on the rise
Electricity production during the first three months of the year was 6.3%
Cent. The air traffic is passed in the growth of the airline
To increase the number of international flights
High due to which SIIII supports
The transport sector in the Omani economy. As Shieyehedt
Hotels in turn rise in total guests up to Shiiyi
April of this year the pensiyyiepe exceeded 11%
To improve income levels on the one hand
Given, high tourism
Other than the other. In addition to the emergence of Eidid
The positive results of the National Program for the Promotion of National Program Outcomes
Economic diversification, and the achievement of projects
(35) and its performance standards
 .
Although the global oil price trends, the
Expected to affect the state budget.
Specific resources for further implementation of diversification programs
However, this can be compensated by a trend
Towards more of the herds of the herd in the implementation of this
Through borrowing from the local market
And outer.
Based on the above, the Omani economy is expected to be realized
Growth rate of 0.2 per cent in 2019,
It rose to 5.2 per cent in 2020.
In Bahrain, output growth is estimated to be low
Gross domestic product (GDP) at constant prices to 8.1 percent
(36) 2018 compared to 8.3% in 2017
 .

Central Bank of Oman, Oman (2019)
Arab Economy, '' September.
Arab Monetary Fund (2019)
Facebook Facebook logo Links on "United Arab.
The non-oil sector contributed most of the growth
The economic activities in light of the growth of the activities of a number of sectors
Oil sector, including the construction sector, which
The positive activity of the sector was extended in 2018
To other sectors, driving growth
These sectors such as real estate, finance, manufacturing and trade.
According to the Ministry of Finance, growth is expected to rise
GDP at constant prices to 3.2 percent
In 2019 and to about 7.2 percent in 2020,
Essentially at a moderate growth rate that is expected to
Driven
It is maintained by the non-oil sector which is expected to grow at a rate
8.2% in 2019, rising to 2.3% in 2019
2020 (37)
.
Oil sector growth is expected to continue at the same pace
During the current year due to the timing and stages of project implementation
Oil strategy, which is expected to be completed in a year
The most important hydrocarbon projects at the 2019 level
Kingdom includes:
- Work in Mshyeiro modernization of the Meyyievat Shihirkeh oil
Bahrain, Bapco, is the largest walker in the world
US $ 2.4 billion. From
It is expected to increase the good quality of life
267 thousand barrels per day
Bermeil daily to about 400 tents
When the walk is finished, it will return to the end of the year
 .2021
- Activation of the line of the Sayyyyyar line of production
By 2019, aluminum will be in place
The line will increase aluminum production from about
540 thousand tons to about 5.1 million tons per year,
This will make Alba the largest aluminum producer
In the world.
- Completion of the floating terminal of the Messiial natural gas
Bahrain Gas Company Messiah. Where it occurred
Bahrain supply agreements with more than 25 shirks,
And the state of receiving and re-liquefying gas. Energy will arrive
One million cubic meters per day are walking to 800
Compared to current total consumption of about
5.1 billion cubic feet per day.
 Ministry of Finance, Bahrain, (2019)
Al-Arabi, "September.


- Implementation of the station of the Bahrain Gas Station
The third "national" Panagas "which has been completed in
US $ 600 million in 2018.
The plant processes associated gas from the Bahrain field
With a capacity of 350 million cubic feet
Extract liquids (LPG and Naphtha)
It recompresses and injects excess gas into the field.
- Cooperation in the field of oil and gas
Producing oil and geys in cavities
The sea is estimated to be around 2,800
The square kilometer in the framework of signing Shirkeh Qabadiya
Oil and Gas signed a contract with Eni in Italy
January 2019.
- Signing of a memorandum of understanding with the French "Total"
To cooperate in the development of the opportunities of Asiaticchiav oil
And gas, share experiences.
Bahrain International Airport Expansion
Who has entered its final stages, where it is expected to
The new Messiahiyevrin building will open during the quarter
Fourth of 2019.
On the other hand, the Bahraini economy will benefit from this
Period of macroeconomic policy trends. On the one hand
The expected easing of monetary policy will work in
United States of America to strengthen bank liquidity,
The introduction of VAT will help
Total revenues in the state budget. It will also help
A number of other measures adopted in the context of the balance program
Financial resources to enable the government to reduce the deficit
In the state budget in a way that contributes to enabling the government to
Direct more public resources to invest in infrastructure
Infrastructure, particularly those related to diversification of the productive structure
And export.
In light of the Kingdom's efforts to diversify sources of income and structure
Economic growth, the gradual growth of the sector is expected to contribute
Non-oil especially in the manufacturing sector and the sector
Construction, drive growth overall
Next years.
The contribution of the tourism and leisure sector is likely to increase
In Bahrain's economy after the Kingdom sought guidance
Infrastructure projects for the development of the tourism sector, where reached
These projects cost more than $ 13 billion. Include

Ministry of Finance, (2019).) Finance Bill. 38
A total of 22 hotels are planned in Bahrain
Over the next four years. Work is also under way to develop
New exhibition center, new shopping malls,
And medical tourism projects.
The TRA is also preparing to launch the NGN
V G5, the terminal expansion project "Floor 2" which
It is the largest energy project in the Kingdom. it is expected that
The production capacity of the plant is about 1500 MW.
The projects are supported by the Gulf Development Program
Contribute significantly to the development of the Kingdom's overall infrastructure,
The cumulative total value of projects increased
Subtracted for tenders by 2.22 per cent in the quarter
To $ 9.5 billion,
The value of projects started to be implemented
US $ 2.4 billion, an increase of 2.16%
Compared to the first quarter of 2018
Total payments for projects included in the development program
To US $ 3.2 billion, an increase of 2.48 percent
On an annual basis.
B) Other Arab oil exporters
It is expected that the pace of economic activity will continue to fluctuate
In the light of some of them affected by the internal situation
Others are affected by the slowdown
Demand for oil demand levels, while infrastructure remains unchanged
Oil is affected by a number of factors, most notably the need to
Supporting the role of the private sector and the economic sector
The process of developing the financial sector,
Business environment, and attract investment. And all
Factors for achieving growth driven by productivity
And export variety.
However, the growth of the group is expected
To 7.2 per cent this year and about 0.5 per cent
Next year. Surrounding the Group's growth prospects
Aljayar Aljayari and next Kider a great deal of certainty given
Internal situation in Libya and Yemen.
Expectations of growth at the level of the group countries
1.5 up to
38 In Algeria, the Algerian economy grew
In 2018, reflecting growth in the number of


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ARAB MONETARY FUND LAUNCHES THE SEPTEMBER EDITION OF THE ARAB ECONOMIC PROSPECTS REPORT, INCLUDING AN UPDATE ON THE GROWTH AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE ARAB COUNTRIES FOR 2019 AND 2020 Empty Re: ARAB MONETARY FUND LAUNCHES THE SEPTEMBER EDITION OF THE ARAB ECONOMIC PROSPECTS REPORT, INCLUDING AN UPDATE ON THE GROWTH AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE ARAB COUNTRIES FOR 2019 AND 2020

Post by claud39 on Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:30 am

Non-oil sectors, including agriculture, have a near-growth rate
5.5%, construction and construction at about 6.5%
(39) Non-governmental services increased by approximately 8.2 per cent
.
International economic conditions, particularly developments in
Yidolyak oil oils affect yidakhliya budgets
And the geopolitics of the Algerian economists in the shadow of expectations
The double deficit in the clinical budget of Idolism passes
Balance of current transactions, which in turn continues to pressure
At the level of international reserves.
In the context of further reducing the adverse effects of fluctuations
Which affected the most important economic issues since 2014
The state has sought to maintain
Sustainability of Fiscal Financing and External Account Balancing,
Through the new model of growth and national economy,
It is not approved by the government. M
The central bank has recently focused on supporting economic growth
Facilitate the financing of the national economy and promote investment
Through the quantitative easing policy that
Implemented since 2017 to finance the state budget deficit
It supported local liquidity and provided financial resources
The government (non-conventional financing) is estimated at 6556 billion dinars
Accounted for 31 percent of GDP and ended
It was introduced in mid-2019 by a decision of the authorities
Publicity.
During the forecast horizon, the central bank may resort to a rate cut
Stable discount at 75.3 per cent a year ago
2017 to further facilitate monetary conditions.
Significant progress in economic diversification continues
Achieving the government's goals depends on providing an enabling environment
Economic growth, and supportive of the business climate and availability
Bank liquidity and stimulate credit levels.
Based on the above, the Algerian economy is expected to be registered
Growth is around 6.2% and 8.3% in both
.2020 and 2019
In Iraq, economic growth is expected to benefit from a surge
Expenditure on services and investment projects in the structure
In addition to signing economic cooperation agreements with
Neighboring countries, some of which have entered into force, will be formed

Algeria, National Bureau of Statistics 39
 Central Bank of Iraq, Iraq, (2019)
Arab Economy, '' September.
An important driver of economic growth along with improved security,
Agreements with some countries to fund projects
(40) related to the reconstruction of liberated areas
 .
The relative improvement recorded in economic conditions contributed
Due to high world oil prices and stability
Recently
Relative to internal conditions in low poverty ratio is multiple
In Iraq from 8.6 per cent in 2014 to
3.3 per cent in 2018, reflecting the penetration of a larger number
(41) Population for education, health and clean drinking water services
.
Prospects for economic growth remain dependent on government capacity
Stimulate economic activity and continue reconstruction efforts. in a
This regard highlights the importance of pro-growth fiscal policies
This requires further efforts to control fiscal conditions
And provide more resources for investment spending where
For current expenses on
Significantly increased
Recently the public budget
Investment expense account which is reflected in the sector's performance
Non-oil. If structural challenges persist
Faced with the state budget is expected to be crowded
Capitalist has an impact on current expenditure of unfavorable spending
Top
Economic activity.
The main priorities in this regard are the establishment of ceilings
Of the current budget expenditure from 2020,
Reforms are geared towards strengthening the capacity of the financial framework
Capital expenditure, and public adaptation to support growth,
With fluctuations in oil prices, by containing the increase
Big Gore
In the public sector, direct more spending
To improve services to support activity in the non-oil sector,
(42) Improve public money management
.
The government's current strategic priorities include grants
Priority to diversify the economy and strengthen the role of the private sector in
Inclusive economic growth, which creates more
Jobs chances. In this context, the government has given priority
To improve the business and investment environment
Private Sector Development Strategy (2014-2030).
Accordingly, the Iraqi economy is expected to grow at a steady rate
Around 3 per cent in 2019, rising to 6 per
In 2020 as the activity gradually recovers
Economic development.
World Bank, (2019). (Iraq: Economic Prospects), April. 41
International Monetary Fund, (2019).) IMF mission team completes 42
Article IV consultations on Iraq, '' May


In Libya, for the universe
Given oil exports contribute to the
Less than 95 per cent of the total seiyyadarat, as well
Oil revenues are financed by 90 per cent of the total
Revenues of the Ayyamid budget, making it a reality, are the main catalyst
For economic growth, forecasting levels of economic growth depends
Sheikel has a great deal on developments in Assiar, production and exports
Crude oil, in addition to internal developments.
The volume of oil production in Libya has increased significantly
In 2018, the amount of oil production rose to MIA
Nearly a million barrels a day, Bemia represents an increase of about
9.26 per cent compared to the levels recorded in 2017,
This helped to boost output levels in the oil sector
(43) During the year
. Despite the high levels of oil production
It is still lower than the pre-2011 levels
The national body of 6.1 million barrels per day is targeted.
Oil increased production to 1.2 million barrels per day
This necessitates the relative stability of the internal situation.
Accordingly, a relative increase in oil production is expected
During the years 2019, 2020, and exemptions under Libya's exemption
Oil production will be subject to a commitment to the
OPEC, which will support levels of economic growth.
For the first time since 2011, the government has adopted a package
One of the key economic reforms has been the reduction of political and economic reforms
Fuel subsidies and reinstatement of remittances to ASEIYEER
$ 100 per child in Siyyana, as well as raising
Provisions are not available per capita of foreign exchange of 500 Cm
$ 1,000 to $ 1,000 in Syrians,
Foreign exchange transactions contributed to 183% of the total
Minimizing the difference in exchange rates between the two markets
Official and parallel.
In Yemen, Yemen has been facing multiple challenges since 2011,
Resulted in negative repercussions on the situation
Economic and social development. The Yemeni economy is inherently dependent
Before these events, he was heavily involved in oil production
Which contributes about one-third of GDP, and 81 per cent
Of exports and 73 per cent of revenues
(44) Government before being affected by the current developments
 .
At rates
It is estimated that the oil sector is currently operating
Nearly 10 percent of its capacity, with production

43 OPEC, (2019). “Monthly Oil Market Report”, Feb.
44 Arab Monetary Fund, (2012)
Facebook Facebook logo Links on "United Arab.
Most oil fields add to the Marib pipeline bombing,
About one-third of oil production is transported
Adding to the developments in the country almost
Stop oil activities.
The interruption of oil production has led to a major economic resource
Electricity supply disruption and liquidity impact
This has had a negative impact on banking activities
Non-oil. These events have affected levels
Expenditure in both consumption and investment, in addition to quasi
Stop for public and private investments. This has resulted in challenges
Related to the living and health conditions of the population on the rise
Poverty and malnutrition levels.
As a result of these developments, GDP levels contracted
Total for the majority of years
2018, especially during the period (2015-2018) where it contracted
Gross domestic product (GDP) at an annual rate of 22 percent
That period compared with a positive growth rate of about 7.7 in
In 2010 before the events collapsed. and he
This resulted in a significant rise in unemployment rates
16 per cent in 2010 to 70 per cent in 2010
2017 (45)
, Especially in light of the exposure of the agricultural sectors
More than 54 percent of the fishing
Rural labor force is severely constrained by shortages
Production inputs.
In this regard, it is estimated that 40% of
Yemeni families have lost their main source of income. This led
Economic developments have led to a decline in per capita
In 2010 to output at constant prices of $ 1309
According to the report, US $ 692 in 2018 was down by 47 percent
World Bank data.
This has resulted in challenges related to living and health conditions
Of the population under high levels of poverty and malnutrition where
Population below international poverty line ($ 2.3 / day)
To about three-quarters of the population, needing over 80 per
51 per cent of humanitarian
The population is at risk of starvation, while the well-being analysis
Increase the poverty rate among Yemenis to between 71 percent to
Arab Monetary Fund, (2018)
The United Arab ".



Women were the hardest hit compared to 8 percent
(46) Men
 .
The Yemeni economy is expected to continue to contract
Levels of economic activity in 2019
Some oil companies to produce oil in the Directorate of Haban
Other areas of Marib governorate will increase
Of production amounts to between 10-12 thousand
.
Bpd
A slight relative improvement in economic activity levels is expected
Support for the situation
Which will restore oil production,
And support government spending, consumption and grant flows
Officials from neighboring countries to contribute to the restoration of activity
Economic development.
3) Arab countries importing oil
The growth forecast of the group of Arab importing countries has been reduced
Oil for 2019 in the September issue of the prospects report
The Arab economy reflects the impact of slowing demand
Which a number of countries in the group rely on as a catalyst
Economic growth, as well as the impact of volatility
Some of the economies of the countries of the group suffered as a result
Changes in climate change continue to be affected
Local and regional situations in neighboring countries.
On a positive note, a number of GAC countries benefited from
Economic activity continued to improve as a result of reforms
The driving force for growth continues to be implemented in the Group's countries
A prominent skyline extending until 2019 in restoration
She had a role
Economic stability and the elimination of some
In front of growth
Structural imbalances that were challenging
Economic development.
6.3 Thus, the total countries are expected to achieve limits
In 2019, down from 8.3 percent in 2019
2018, while the rest of the group is expected
The growth rate is high at 0.4 per cent
2020.
Expectations of growth at the level of the group countries
In Egypt, the time horizon for implementing the reform program ends
Economic cooperation implemented by the government in

46 World Bank, (2017). “The Economics of Post
Reconstruction in MENA, April.
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
2019) by the end of this year, and included fundamental reforms
To stimulate the economy, enhance the business climate, and achieve growth
Balanced includes all segments of society. The program included a third
Themes of the reform policies were: 1
Restoring economic stability by addressing imbalances
The most important of which is the high deficit of the public budget,
Inflation rates and the balance of payments deficit, 2.
Structural reforms to support productive sectors, especially activities
Industry, export and investment, and 3
Social security to provide maximum protection and care
For all segments of society, especially the lower income groups
And care.
During the last period of 2019, a reform was completed
Support fuel by reaching cost recovery level
For most fuel products and implement automatic fuel pricing mechanism,
Both are factors to encourage greater efficiency in
Energy use, and will help, with supporting reforms
To create fiscal space to increase spending in my sector
Health and Education. During the current year and within the framework of
Continue to seek to strengthen the protection network system
Announcing the launch of the health insurance system
Experimental in some governorates
Mass that is currently implemented
This will be fully implemented within 15 years
Start the application. The cost of this program is 120 billion pounds
And so that the state bears the contributions of those who are unable to prepare it
The system is responsible for treating the entire family so that it is loaded
Each family subscription fee covers the system aside from
Treatment costs.
Total expenditure on support and protection programs
Amounted to $ 3.1 trillion over the years
Including the last five programs
Aimed at protecting fragile layers.
With the end of the current economic reform program, it is expected
The government will continue its reform efforts that will be targeted
At this stage continue to achieve financial discipline and ensure
Financial sustainability, improve the attractiveness of the business climate, and attract
Investment, support for international productivity and competitiveness, and focus
Reforming the education and health sectors, and strengthening networks
Social protection.


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ARAB MONETARY FUND LAUNCHES THE SEPTEMBER EDITION OF THE ARAB ECONOMIC PROSPECTS REPORT, INCLUDING AN UPDATE ON THE GROWTH AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE ARAB COUNTRIES FOR 2019 AND 2020 Empty Re: ARAB MONETARY FUND LAUNCHES THE SEPTEMBER EDITION OF THE ARAB ECONOMIC PROSPECTS REPORT, INCLUDING AN UPDATE ON THE GROWTH AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE ARAB COUNTRIES FOR 2019 AND 2020

Post by claud39 on Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:34 am

GDP at constant prices grew
In 2017/18 fiscal year compared to 2.4%
In 2016/17, the increase contributed
Tangible for both commodity and service export activities
And investments in supporting economic growth where it has grown
It stood at 2.32 per cent and 7.15 per cent over
(47) respectively
.
In light of the above, the economy is expected to continue
Relatively about the Egyptian level of high growth rates
5.5% in 2019 and 2020.
In Morocco, preliminary estimates indicate a decrease in the frequency
Economic growth to 8.2 per cent in 2019 against
0.3% growth for 2018, slowing levels
Household consumption, investment and exports.
Since 2012, the Moroccan government has focused on adoption
Reforms aimed at overcoming internal economic imbalances
And foreign to reduce the state budget deficit, support
The balance of payments situations have been taken under which many
Measures that have succeeded significantly in minimizing these
Imbalances.
The main factors that are expected to have a significant impact are evident
Economic growth over the medium term
The growth of external demand, which in turn is linked to the prospects of activity in
The most prominent partner countries, which will be affected by a number of factors
Associated with the escalation of trade war and growing conflicts
Political and geopolitical. Risks are also considered price increases
Oil is an external factor that can affect
Economic growth. At the local level, it is considered a development
Depending on the climatic conditions, agricultural output, which remains
Factors that are expected to affect growth
Economic development.
In (48) in this context, and based on the expectations of Bank Al-Maghrib
June 2019, growth is expected to slow to 8.2 in
Percent in 2019 before accelerating to 0.4 percent a year
Agricultural value added is expected to decline
Increased by 8.3 percent in 2019, before rising by 8.3 percent
0.6 per cent in 2020, based on an investigative hypothesis
The season is normal. In parallel, it is likely to continue

Ministry of Finance, Egypt (2018), Monthly Financial Report, December. 47
Bank Al-Maghrib, Morocco (2019). Arab Economic Outlook Report, 48
September.
Nonagricultural activities improve their dynamism, with growth
Of 6.3 percent in 2019 and 9.3 percent in 2020.
In Tunisia, economic activity is expected to be impacted
Weak demand levels in the EU region
The most prominent trading partner, particularly in relation to production
Industrial growth, while growth in activity is expected to ease
Agricultural and service sectors of the impact of slowing activity
Industrial growth and partly to support economic growth
It is also expected to boost growth in the sector
Tourism and increase gas production from the field "Nawara gas" in
South of the country from the economic growth forecast for 2020.
It is recalled that the IMF Executive Board has
The fifth review of the program was completed last June
Tunisia Economic Agreement supported by the agreement “Facilitating the Fund
By the decision of the Council, Tunisia is allowed to disburse an amount
(About US $ 245 million)
The total amount disbursed under this facility is about
US $ 6.1 billion, stimulating other partners
International markets to provide the necessary financing for Tunisia
To support the ongoing economic reforms initiated
(49) pay off
.
Achieving balanced macroeconomic stability remains
Socially a priority for the government in 2019, which he supports
Agreement on "Facilitation of the Extended Fund". Financial policies are aimed
To mobilize revenues and contain current spending
To reduce the budget deficit, while maintaining investments
Strengthening the social safety net for the benefit of
Low income. Monetary policy focuses on curbing inflation,
Maintaining exchange rate flexibility will help to reduce
Current account deficit and improvement of international reserves.
Structural reforms under the agreement include procedures
To improve the business climate, and expand access to
(50) Financing, and supporting levels of governance
.
In Sudan, the political developments witnessed
The economic situation in the country is expected to increase in 2019
Economic conditions in the country since 2000
Continuation
2018 resulting from higher deficit levels
The balance of payments deficit and domestic liquidity crises, which
This resulted in weak economic activity and a rise
Inflation rate and depreciation of the local currency against currencies
IMF, (2019).) Executive Board completes review 49
Fifth Under the Agreement to Facilitate the Extended Fund with Tunisia, June.
50
International Monetary Fund, (2019) op.


Consumption levels, which in turn weakened consumption levels
Investment and therefore projections of contraction of GDP
This will ease some developments
The impact of this contraction in 2019
This includes the continued export of South Sudan's oil, and the resulting
So from the flow of oil transit fees to the state budget,
The rise in foreign exchange reserves and its impact on easing
Pressure on domestic prices, in addition to continuing
Gold exports through official channels have positively impacted
(51) on the balance of payments
 .
Economic growth conditions are expected to improve as of 2015
2020 onwards, to impose a smooth transition of power and existence
For reform
Support from the international community and the Government adopts a program
Economic growth succeeds in eliminating the main obstacles to growth
Economic development.
In Jordan, the national economy improved slightly (52)
Its performance grew by 0.2 percent in the first quarter
Compared to 9.1 percent growth in 2019
Period last year, so despite the continued state
Uncertainty in the area that negatively affected the size
FDI to the Kingdom.
Economic activity is expected in 2019
The stability of the situation in the region has improved
Resulted in the reopening and activation of land border crossings with
Iraq and Syria through the signing of trade agreements
And bilateral investment, which will stimulate intra-private trade with
Iraq.
The economic reform program, which is being implemented with
The IMF, in mitigating the risks it suffers
Including macroeconomic, and promoting inclusive economic growth
Sustainable development in the coming period. This is in addition to the commitment to implement
Priorities for government work for the next two years under a program
Over the next five years
Contributes to the benefits of these reforms in the long run
Average. Thus, the national economy is expected to witness
Performance improved in 2019
To grow 2.2
And continue to improve to 4.2 per cent
In 2020.
In Lebanon, 2018 saw weak economic activity
This was reflected in most economic sectors where it did not
The growth rate of output at constant prices exceeds 2%

 Central Bank of Sudan, Sudan, (2019)
Arab Economy, '' September.
 52 Central Bank of Jordan, Jordan, (2019)
Arab Economy, '' September.
(53) percent
. Economic performance is continuously affected
The implications of regional and local political
Economic movement in the country and the real estate sector
And investment activity in particular.
One of the top economic priorities is the need to accelerate
Implementation of the decisions of the Cedar Conference and its reforms
Economic, financial and sectoral level in order to raise
Economic growth, attract investment and adjust conditions
Public finances for the coming years. The unity government will seek
New financial institutions to improve financial management and attract funding
Necessary to implement a number of reforms necessary to support growth
Economic stimulus programs
Adopted by the Central Bank of Lebanon. Debt relief also comes
Which amounted to about 152 per cent of GDP
Aggregate is a top economic priority within the horizon
Expectation.
In order to provide the resources needed to spur growth, the government is seeking
At the current stage to attract donor funds, particularly with respect to
Relates to donor countries from the GCC
For the Arab Gulf States to support their infrastructure development plans
Mega, including a 16 billion investment program
$. On the other hand, the government will develop
After completing the work of preparing the framework
Governing the taxation of this sector in order to benefit from
Oil fields in the Mediterranean.
The formation of a new government, and the relative improvement of the situation
In Syria, the flow of funds to support regional donors
Internationals are the most important elements that will support growth
Economic growth in Lebanon, where it will help to support confidence levels
Companies and consumers, the high level of exports with
Reopen some trade routes.
Based on the above, the Lebanese economy is expected to grow
It ranges around 3.1 percent in 2019.
(54) in Palestine
, One of the most important developments that are expected to
Have a negative impact on economic growth in 2019
By 2020, foreign grants and aid have declined
And the consequent decline in spending
Government, and continued disagreement with the Israeli
Fully transfer the tax clearing funds to the government
And its negative repercussions on spending
Bank of Lebanon, 2019. Arab Economic Outlook Report: 53
Issue 9, April.
Palestine Monetary Agency, Palestine (2019)
Al-Arabi, "September.



Land expropriation and expansion of land
Settlement activity in the West Bank
Exploitation of local resources in regions (c),
Blockades and partial closures of commercial crossings and tensions
Political in the Gaza Strip.
In view of the above, real growth is expected to slow from 9.0 in
Percent in 2018, to 5.0 percent in 2018
In 2020, economic activity is expected to recover
Growth is only 0.1%.
In Mauritania, we expect GDP to register
Growth is estimated at 7.6 per cent in real 2019
Compared to 9.2 percent in 2018
Growth in dependence on mining and construction
Agriculture, services and economy. Also expected to benefit
Agriculture is a growing effort by the government to develop
Sector as part of economic diversification efforts.
Iron ore prices have recently been observed
Recovery is possible
It is considered the main export commodity of the country where it constitutes one third
Total exports recover from the accelerated growth path that
The country has experienced a period of mineral boom and is expected to continue
The corporation's activity should improve prices, which will reflect positively
National Minerals projected to increase the rate
Growth is estimated at 4.16 percent in 2019 which is what
Registered year
It is considered a strong return to the sector after the big decline
2018 increased by 3.9 per cent. Recovery will also help
Tourism sector, especially in the northeastern regions of
Economic growth. In contrast expected
The pace of growth accelerated next year to about 5 per cent in
The expected improvement in global demand and its catalytic effect remained
Economic development.
In Somalia, the economic recovery is likely to continue,
With continued expansion in the telecommunications and construction sectors
Services, which is expected to record growth
5.3% during the forecast horizon. Will support flows
Investment expected during the period and employee remittances
Expansion of economic activity and will support growth in
Trade and telecommunications sectors. There is still a need to
Strengthening investments to spend on infrastructure is the most important
Challenges to the steady growth of the Somali economy
Infrastructure rehabilitation operations
Supports private sector growth.
In Djibouti, growth is expected to rise to 8.4 per cent
In 2019 and to 5.4 per cent in 2020 which is what
Attributed to the significant decline in public investment in infrastructure,
Which have been supportive of rapid economic activity in years
The latter. However, the implementation of the activities
Free Trade Area Framework and Desalination Plant and Networks
Roads are expected to continue to support domestic demand
Expectation horizon. Re-exports are expected to contribute
A major role in stimulating economic growth especially after
Export-supporting infrastructure projects completed
Recently, this includes increasing the capacity of ports and strengthening railways
Ferrous. On the other hand, the expected growth will support Ethiopia
Of external demand for the services sector in Djibouti
Especially aviation in the light of the government sought to promote
National aviation fleet which is expected to contribute to the increase
Service exports in 2019 and 2020.
The expected increase in export activity will not be offset
The expected decline in capital formation, he explains
Expectations of slower economic growth this year
And next.
In the Moon, the economy faces a number of challenges, among them
Implications from the hurricane
Which led to the massive destruction of infrastructure, damaged
Agricultural activity with damage to about 63 per cent of
Food crops, and 35 percent of cash crops.
It also affected activity in a number of key sectors
Services, which will reflect on prospects
Growth not achieved during the projection horizon. M
Assuming favorable weather conditions in 2020,
The rise in economic growth that year will be
Driven by a rebound in agriculture (especially in cash crops)
Export-oriented (and improvements in infrastructure, result
Government plans to expand the road and electricity network. With regard to
The business environment continues to face a number of constraints, particularly with regard to
The need to develop the financial sector and the ability to strengthen
FDI levels to drive growth
Economic development.


Figure (2): Macroeconomic Performance Expectations of Arab Countries for 2019 and 2020
Economic growth
The growth forecast for Arab countries for 2019 has been lowered to reflect
Global economic activity slows ..
Growth rate of Arab countries (%)
And its implications for the rate of output growth in both groups of Arab countries
Exporting and importing oil
Growth Rate: Arab Countries Groups (%)
Source: Official sources, estimates and projections of the Arab Monetary Fund. Source: Official sources, estimates and projections of the Arab Monetary Fund.
The oil sector in the GCC is expected to be affected
Oil production will decline, while the non-oil sector will continue
Oil support for output levels
Growth rate: GCC (%)
Economic activity in oil-exporting countries is expected to continue to fluctuate
And low levels of economic diversification
Growth rate: Other Arab oil exporters (%)
Source: Official sources, estimates and projections of the Arab Monetary Fund. Source: Official sources, estimates and projections of the Arab Monetary Fund and national sources.
The growth forecast for oil-importing countries has been slashed by a slowdown
External demand, while growth is still supported by the positive impact
Economic reforms
Growth rate: Arab oil importing countries (%)
The Group's growth rate is expected to be supported by strong economic activity
In a number of countries
Expected growth rate: Arab oil importing countries (%)
Source: Official sources, estimates and forecasts of the Arab Monetary Fund.
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

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ARAB MONETARY FUND LAUNCHES THE SEPTEMBER EDITION OF THE ARAB ECONOMIC PROSPECTS REPORT, INCLUDING AN UPDATE ON THE GROWTH AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE ARAB COUNTRIES FOR 2019 AND 2020 Empty Re: ARAB MONETARY FUND LAUNCHES THE SEPTEMBER EDITION OF THE ARAB ECONOMIC PROSPECTS REPORT, INCLUDING AN UPDATE ON THE GROWTH AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE ARAB COUNTRIES FOR 2019 AND 2020

Post by claud39 on Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:39 am

Second: Updating the forecasts of the macroeconomic performance of the Arab countries for 2019 and 2020
Trends in domestic price development


The overall price level increased during the first months of 2019, in light of the increase in the prices of tobacco, education,
Food, furniture, transportation, health, restaurants, and clothing. For 2019 and 2020 projections, it is expected
Be influenced by a number of factors both internally and externally. Domestically, inflation is expected to be affected by a series
Financial and economic reforms, especially energy price correction and VAT measures adopted in some countries
On the one hand, countervailing initiatives and measures, in the context of some countries' tendency to reduce the burden of
Living on citizens on the other hand. The climate will also be affected in some countries
The general level of prices as circumstances change
The impact of this on the supply of food commodities in the local market, in addition to the procedures of raising tariffs in
Some Arab countries have imported goods from abroad. At the level of external factors affecting the levels of inflation, is represented
The most important factors in both the rise in world prices of oil and raw materials and strategic commodities such as wheat, in addition to changes
Exchange rate against other major currencies.
In light of the above developments, the inflation rate is expected to be around 7.6 per cent in 2019
2020 inflation is expected to be around 5.6 per cent.
Arab oil exporting countries
Inflation is expected to decline in this group of countries
In 2019 to reach about 0.1 per cent compared to 8.2 per
This is expected to come as a result
The overall level of prices in the GCC group declined
Cooperation for the Arab Gulf States by 5.0%. While
Inflation is expected to rise in exporting countries
Oil prices fell to about 1.5 percent in 2019
For 2020, inflation is expected to rise
The group of Arab countries to 6.2 per cent. Exporting oil
The following is an overview of the expected developments at the level of
Included subgroups.
A) The Gulf Cooperation Council States
The first months of 2019 recorded high levels
Prices of tobacco, food, beverages, clothing,
Furnishings, restaurants. Price trends will be affected
In 2019 and 2020, some of the countries in the group implemented
VAT, selective goods tax, and effect
Fluctuations in world oil prices on the cost of transport group.
In addition to the impact of financial and economic reforms
They have been implemented by some of the countries of the group, as well as by initiatives
Compensatory granted in some of these countries to enable
Citizens face the high general level of prices such as

General Authority for Statistics, Saudi Arabia, (2018), Price Index 55
Consumer, "December.
Citizen account in Saudi Arabia, the direction of some of these governments
Countries to provide public sector employees with allowances for the cost of living.
As a result of the above developments, the level is expected to decline
Prices in the GCC countries increased by 5.0 per cent
2019, rising 7.1 percent in 2020.
Developments in the Community
In Saudi Arabia, the general price level declined during the year
The month of July 2019 is 3.1 percent compared to the month
(55) Similar from 2018
As a primary consequence of that decline
The prices of the housing, water, electricity and gas group,
Entertainment, culture, and communications. While seen sets
Food and beverage, restaurants and hotels, education,
 .
Health, transportation, clothing, tobacco up
This is due to the fact that inflation rates in the Kingdom are affected by several factors
Supply and demand, in addition to
Series of economic financial reforms and initiatives
Compensatory procedures, the most important of which were:
Energy price correction, value-added tax,
The return of public sector employees allowances and the application of an account
And the payment of subsistence allowance to the public sector
And apply it from some entities in the private sector.
Inflation will continue to be affected by price reforms
Energy and non-oil revenues over the past few years


In addition to extending the cost of living allowance
To the public sector and to follow some entities in the private sector
For royal order.
As a result of the above developments, it is expected during the year
The general price level in Saudi Arabia declined by about 2019
0.1%, as for 2020 is expected to
The inflation rate is about 6.1 per cent.
In the UAE, the dirham is pegged to the dollar
In the United States, increased import prices reflect changes in
Inflation rates in foreign markets and change in value
Against other major currencies. On this basis
Tradable commodity prices fell
Accounted for about 34 percent of the total consumer basket by
6.0 percent year-on-year to the end of March
As for non-tradable goods and services
Tradable-Non, which accounts for about 66 per cent of
Aggregate, their prices declined reflecting a decline
Prices for housing and transportation by about 0.6 in
This was a hundred reflection. Of the decline in prices
Housing rents, liberalization of energy prices and its implications for
transportation fees. On the other hand, the appreciation of the dollar contributed
Against the trading partners' currencies in lowering the level
Prices.
In light of the developments mentioned, it is expected to decline
The consumer price index increased by 2.1 per cent
While in 2020, it is expected to rise
To about 0.2 percent.
In Qatar, the consumer price index recorded a decline
It was 7.0 per cent compared to May 2019
(56) in the corresponding month of 2018
. This came as a result
Telecom and entertainment group prices
Culture, housing, water, electricity, gas, food
And drinks. This while the prices of both tobacco rose,
Education, furniture, household appliances, transport, and clothing
Shoes, health, restaurants and hotels.
In light of previous developments, inflation is expected to remain
At low levels during 2019, mainly as a result
To lower housing rents. As for 2020, it will be affected
The general level of prices by applying VAT. as such
Inflation levels will be affected by fluctuations in world oil prices
And their impact on transport group prices. In this light, of

Qatar Statistics and Statistics Authority, Qatar (2018), Price Index 56
Consumer, "May.
Inflation is expected to reach around 2019
5.1 per cent. For 2020, it is expected to reach an average
Inflation to about 0.1%.
In Kuwait, the consumer price index rose by
In May 2019 compared to the corresponding month of
As a result of higher food prices
Drinks, clothing, accommodation services, furnishings
Household, maintenance equipment, and communications. This while retreated
Prices for both health and transportation range. Prices have stabilized
All of the tobacco group, education, entertainment and culture services,
Restaurants and hotels. This is due to the respective developments
World commodity prices, domestic current
In addition to the re-pricing of some government goods and services
Such as electricity, water, housing rents decline.
As a result of the previous developments, the inflation rate is expected to reach
In 2019 to about 2.1 percent. On the level
In 2020, the inflation rate is expected to be around
8.1 per cent.
In Bahrain, inflation in the Kingdom has increased since the beginning
2019 somewhat driven by VAT,
The consumer price index (CPI) was up
For the period from January to April of 2019 is about 1.1 at
Compared to the same period in 2018
Relative to the US dollar is accompanied by low growth
The gradual application of VAT has prevented
Inflation rates have increased dramatically.
Inflation is expected to be around 2.2%
Percent in 2019 and 5.2 percent in 2020.
In Oman, the inflation rate increased until April 2019 by about
31.0 per cent compared to the same period in 2018, where
Food and beverage group prices rose
Alcoholic beverages increased by 3.1%. The price level also rose
Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels
At about 2.0 per cent from the same level during the same period
In return, the Transport Group contributed
In reducing the general index rises, where prices have seen
A total of about 6.0 group decreased
Per cent, that coincides
Oil prices fell in the first quarter
Cal prices also fell from the 2019 range
The range of goods and services varied
Varying.

In addition to the above, there are several factors for the slight increase in
The price level in the Sultanate during the first quarter of the year
Done
Growth levels are still high
The level needed to close the GDP gap,
This reflects the decline in inflationary pressures resulting from the decline
Level of total demand in the Sultanate. The trigger will start working
Selective tax since June to rise
Prices of some goods. The dollar level is high
Against major currencies since the beginning of the year
That has limited the occurrence of significant increases in levels
Prices during the first quarter of 2019 also contributed
Also in minimizing inflationary pressures on the level
Imports of the Sultanate.
Inflation forecasts for 2019
By 2020, inflation is expected to be around 4.1 percent
For 2020, it is expected to reach
The inflation rate is about 9.1 percent.
B) Other Arab oil exporters
Inflation rate affected during the first months of 2019,
Increase in food prices,
Clothing, housing group, water, electricity, gas,
Furniture, transport and communications.
For projections in 2019 and 2020, it is expected
The general level of prices in some countries of the group should be affected
Constantly challenges external balances in
Monetary authorities remained limited in foreign reserves
Economic reform programs,
And the growing demand for petroleum products.
Inflation rates in the Group will also be affected by the circumstances
And their impact on commodity supply levels
Food markets in local markets. As a result of these developments are expected
Inflation rate of 1.5 per cent in 2019,
It will drop slightly next year to 5 per cent.
In the light of the above, the following section presents forecast trends
The general level of prices in the group countries.
In Algeria, inflation rose in April
Compared to the same month of 2018 to reach
Approximately 2.3 percent (57 percent)
. As a result of the increase in prices of both materials
Food and beverages, clothing and footwear, accommodation,

 57 National Bureau of Statistics, Algeria, December 2018 (57)
Consumption.
Furniture, furniture, health, transport and communications,
Education, culture and entertainment.
Overall price levels are expected to remain stable.
However, agricultural food prices may fluctuate as a result
The weather conditions experienced by the country. The level will also be affected
Prices in the neighboring countries
Goods from these countries to Algerian markets at prices
Prices, which affects their price level
Local markets.
In addition, local prices will be affected by a change
The prices of imported materials that are linked to exchange rate fluctuations
The euro and the dollar, as the two major currencies
Foreign commercial transactions of Algeria.
In light of this, inflation is expected to reach within a year
2019 is about 5.4 percent. For 2020, it is
Inflation is expected to be around 9.3 percent.
In Iraq, the overall price level fell by 8.0%
In May 2019 compared to May
2018 (58)
As a result of falling tobacco prices, clothing,
The housing package has water, electricity, gas, and fittings
Equipment, transport, and communications. While increased
Prices for both food and beverage, health,
Education, culture, entertainment, restaurants and hotels. Due
Local price trends in Iraq are affected by developments
In the neighboring countries, and the recession
Iraqi economy, along with developments in Iraq
Prices of imported commodities.
With regard to the outlook for 2019, it is expected that
The inflation rate is about 5.1 per cent during the year
In 2019 and about 7.1 percent in 2020.
In Libya, the downward trend in inflation continued
In 2019, which began in September
2018, after the upward trend previously taken. Lost
The percentage change in the price index during the month
January and February 2019, compared to the corresponding month of the year
Previously, about -8.4 percent and -6.1 percent, respectively.
As a result of the decline in food and tobacco prices,
Furniture, transport and communications, and education
And culture. Prices for both clothing and housing increased
Health care. This is due back in
Annual inflation rate, especially in recent months
Central Bank of Iraq, Department of Statistics and Research, Department of Macroeconomics. 58


Action taken in September 2018 in
The framework of the economic reform program was one of the most important
Easing restrictions and facilitating procedures for cash purchases
For commercial and personal use
Commercial banks directly, which in turn led to a decline
The average exchange rate of the Libyan dinar against the currencies
In the parallel market of about JD 05.6 each
In September 2018 amounted to about JD 25.4 each
(59) USD in February 2019
.
For 2019 and 2020 projections, it is expected that
Inflation is around 15 percent in 2019,
And 18 percent in 2020
(60)
.
In Yemen, inflation increased as a result of increased demand
On petroleum derivatives and high prices in the market
In addition to the very low cash flow flows
Foreign exports from abroad as a result of faltering exports and
And foreign investment, and the continued deficit of the balance
Payments and limited external reserves of the Bank
Central bank, and low cash transfers for
The new measures taken by some countries
Such as extra fees for expats and their companions.
In light of these developments, the rate of dilution is expected to reach
During the year 2019, about 23 percent of the water is available in Yemen
By 2020, the rate of expansion is expected to rise to around 21
percent.
Arab oil importing countries
The first months of 2019 saw the level rise
Prices in a number of countries of the Group as a result of an increase
Prices for both food and beverage, transportation, tobacco,
Health, education, clothing, and furniture.
For 2019 and 2020 projections, Tawasul is expected
Inflation rates are influenced by actions taken by countries
With respect to fiscal consolidation,
And the application of automatic pricing mechanism for petroleum products,
Developments in world oil and raw material prices,
In addition to the factors related to the supply side of a number
Food commodities and exceptional internal conditions
 ء
Witnessed by some countries of the group such as Sudan. Us
Thus, inflation is expected to be around 2.15 per

Central Bank of Libya, (2019)
Consumer and Inflation, '' February 2019.
In the developments of the repercussions of the internal conditions experienced by the country in the 60 months
The latter.
Percent in 2019, falling to about 5.12 percent
In 2020.
In the light of the above, the following section presents forecast trends
The general level of prices in the group countries.
In Egypt, annual inflation declined in June
To reach about 4.9 percent compared to about 1.14
Registered in May 2019, the lowest level since
More than three years.
The MPC decided to maintain the rates of return
Of the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE)
July 2019, with the aim of achieving an inflation rate of about 0.9
(4%) during the fourth quarter of the year
In addition to the goal of stabilizing prices on 2019
Medium Term
 .
In light of the developments mentioned, the rate is expected
Inflation was around 5.13 percent in 2019, while
During 2020, an inflation rate of 0.12 is expected
percent.
In Tunisia, annual inflation rose in June
In 2019 to reach about 8.6 percent compared to the corresponding month of
This was due to higher food prices
Beverages, transportation, clothing and footwear, and housing
Energy, furniture, health, entertainment, education,
And restaurants.
As for the forecasts for 2019, it is expected to reach an average of
Inflation is about 7.6 percent. The rate is also expected
Inflation was about 0.6 percent in 2020.
For Morocco, the inflation rate in June was
2019 is about 2.0 percent compared to 3.0 percent for the month
(62) June of the previous year
. This came as a result of rising prices
Clothing, shoes, housing, water, electricity, gas,
Furniture, health, education, transportation, transportation,
Entertainment, restaurants.
In addition, the core inflation index was recorded within a month
It reached about 2.1 per cent compared with
May 2019 up
May 2018.
Central Bank of Egypt, Egypt, 2019. 61
62
High Commissioner for Planning, Morocco, May 2019.


In this context, inflation is likely to fall to 6.0 in
After accelerating in 2018, it reached 100 percent in 2019
About 9.1%. For 2020 is expected to reach
The inflation rate is about 2.1 per cent.
This came in light of developments in world prices
Oil and real exchange rate forecasts, which in turn are affected
And the evolution of the currencies of emerging countries
I have recently been under strong pressure. Add this to
Supply factors for food products considered to be
The most important factors affecting the prices of food products are
Characterized by the volatility of their prices.
In Jordan, the inflation rate was recorded during the seven months
This year, an increase of about 5.0%
Compared to an increase of 5.4 percent for the same period last year
The previous year, in view of the fading effect of the seizure procedures
Financial that was taken at the beginning of 2018, prices fell
World Oil. Inflation is expected to stabilize at
0.2 percent in 2019, rising in 2020
(63) to 5.2 percent
.
In Lebanon, it reached about
The inflation rate rose 5.3
In May 2019 compared to the same month of the year
2018 (64)
. This came as a result of the rise in prices of both materials
Food, beverages, clothing, housing, gas and water
Electricity, furniture, transport, culture, entertainment, education,
And restaurants. While the prices of both health fell,
Communications.
Domestic price trends in 2019 are correlated
New measures taken in 2020
The field of raising customs duties by 2 percent on
Number of imported goods. Add to that the oil prices
It will continue to have a major impact in increasing commodity prices
For the foreseeable future, until Lebanon is able
(65) of oil extraction in the next few years
 .
As for inflation expectations for 2019, it is expected
The inflation rate should be about 5.3 per cent during the
.2019
In Sudan, the annual inflation rate during June was
2019 is about 8.47 percent compared with about 45 percent

Central Bank of Jordan, (2019) Jordan. 63 Economic Outlook Report Questionnaire
Al-Arabi: Ninth Issue, "April.
 64 Central Administration of Statistics, Lebanon, (2019)
Consumption, May.
65 Ministry of Economy and Trade, Lebanon (2019)
Al-Arabi: Tenth Issue, "September.
(66) registered during May 2019
. This came as a result
High prices for both food and beverages, and housing
Water, electricity and gas, clothing and footwear,
Fittings, household equipment, restaurants, hotels,
Education, recreation and culture, tobacco, communications, transport,
And health.
Price levels are expected to be affected by a number of factors
Domestic and overseas. At the local level, survival is expected
Inflation rates are high as a result of continuation
Deficit of the state budget, removal of import restrictions,
Decreased production of major export commodities (gold)
And the high cost of transportation in Sudan, low
National currency exchange rate, the continued deficit balance
Trade and current account and consequently declining reserves
Of convertible currencies.
The external factors are both the rise in
Global prices for strategic commodities such as wheat and fuel
Commodity prices and fluctuations in commodity prices
And political and economic stability
Region, as well as fiscal and fiscal reforms
Taken in some trading partner countries) value tax
(67) Added
 .
The outlook for 2019 and 2020 is expected to reach
Inflation is about 0.55 percent in 2019, and about 40
In 2020.
In Mauritania, the overall price level increased by 8.1%
In June 2019 compared to the corresponding month of
2018 (68)
. This is due to the increase in prices
All of the food, clothing, transportation, health,
Entertainment, culture, restaurants, education. While retreated
Prices for both housing, water, gas and electricity
Hydrocarbons, tobacco.
In light of this, inflation is expected to be around 7.2
For 2020, it is estimated that the number of people living in the country will increase by 20 percent
Inflation is expected to be around 6.2 percent.
In Palestine, the PMA forecasts a return
Inflation rates in the Palestinian market are rising again
In 2019 and 2020, there were about 9.0 percent, 2.1 percent
Central Statistical Organization, Sudan, (2019), Inflation, June. 66
 Central Bank of Sudan, 2019. Questionnaire Report 67
Arab Economy: Tenth Issue, '' September.
National Bureau of Statistics, Mauritania, 2019
Consumption, June.



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ARAB MONETARY FUND LAUNCHES THE SEPTEMBER EDITION OF THE ARAB ECONOMIC PROSPECTS REPORT, INCLUDING AN UPDATE ON THE GROWTH AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE ARAB COUNTRIES FOR 2019 AND 2020 Empty Re: ARAB MONETARY FUND LAUNCHES THE SEPTEMBER EDITION OF THE ARAB ECONOMIC PROSPECTS REPORT, INCLUDING AN UPDATE ON THE GROWTH AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE ARAB COUNTRIES FOR 2019 AND 2020

Post by claud39 on Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:42 am

Percent, compared with a limited contraction of 2.0
These forecasts come in line with expectations
The rising cost of imports and global food prices
They are the main determinants of inflation in Palestine.
With regard to the risks associated with inflation, they are linked
This is mainly due to changes in prices
(Especially food and hydrocarbons), as well as
Changes in the inflation rate of trading partners
Palestine.
In Djibouti, inflation is expected to reach 2019
About 8.1%. As for 2020, it is expected that
The inflation rate is about 0.2 percent.
In Somalia, inflation is expected to be around 0.3
For 2020, it is projected to increase by 20 percent
The inflation rate is about 5.3 per cent.
In Africa, inflation is expected to be around 8.2 per cent
Inflation rate is expected to be around 2019
This figure is about 0.3 percent in 2020.


Figure (3): Macroeconomic Performance Expectations of Arab Countries for 2019 and 2020
Trends in domestic price development
Inflationary pressures are expected to ease in Arab countries
In 2019 and 2020
Inflation rate in Arab countries (%)
Source: Official estimates and forecasts of the Arab Monetary Fund
This is due to the decline in inflation in both GCC countries
For the Arab Gulf countries and oil importers
Inflation rate in Arab countries (%)
Source: Official estimates and forecasts of the Arab Monetary Fund
Inflation is expected to remain in the GCC
Arabian Gulf at low levels below 2 per cent
In most countries
Inflation rate: GCC (%)
Source: Official estimates and forecasts of the Arab Monetary Fund.
Inflationary pressures are also expected to gradually ease
Some oil-importing countries during the forecast horizon compared
In previous years
Inflation rate: Arab oil importing countries (%)
Source: Official estimates and forecasts of the Arab Monetary Fund.
While inflationary pressures are expected to rise in the Arab countries
Oil exports in 2019 and their gradual decline in 2019
2020
Inflation rate: other Arab oil exporters (%)
Inflation trends vary in a number of countries
Inflation rate: other Arab oil exporters (%)
Source: Official estimates and forecasts of the Arab Monetary Fund. Source: Official estimates and forecasts of the Arab Monetary Fund.
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Arab countries
The main Arab oil exporters
Arab oil importing countries

Economic Growth Trends in Arab Countries
(2020--2013)
Growth rate at constant prices
* 2020 * 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
2.5 2.0 2.4 -0.7 1.7 4.1 3.6 2.7 Saudi Arabia
3.0 2.0 1.7 0.5 2.6 3.8 3.1 4.3 UAE
2.8 2.8 1.4 1.6 2.2 3.6 4.0 3.4 Qatar
2.5 1.6 1.2 -3.5 2.9 0.6 0.5 1.1 Kuwait
2.5 2.0 2.4 -0.8 2.0 5.7 2.9 3.9 Oman
3.8 3.5 2.9 4.4 5.4 Bahrain
1
2.7 2.3 .8
Arab Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
3.8 2.6 1.5 1.4 3.2 3.7 3.8 2.8 Algeria
6.0 2.9 -1.0 -3.8 13.8 2.6 2.3 7.6 Iraq
6.0 -0.5 -3.6 -11.6 -17.9 -32.7 -0.2 4.8 Yemen
6.7 5.4 7.4 55.0 -8.4 -11.7 -74.4 -52.0 Libya
The main oil countries other than countries
Cooperation Board 5.0 2.7 0.4 3.8 4.6 -0.8 -10.3 -5.3
Oil Main Exporting Arab Countries 3.2 2.2 1.2 0.6 2.7 2.7 1.8 2.4 (1)
5.5 5.5 5.3 4.2 4.4 4.4 2.2 2.1 Egypt
4.0 2.8 3.0 4.2 1.1 4.5 2.7 4.5 Morocco
2.7 1.3 2.8 4.7 4.8 4.9 3.6 4.4 Sudan
3.0 2.5 2.5 1.8 0.9 1.1 2.3 2.4 Tunisia
1.9 1.3 1.9 0.6 1.7 0.2 2.0 2.7 Lebanon
1.0 0.5 0.9 3.1 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 Palestine
2.4 2.2 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.6 3.4 2.4 Jordan
5.0 3.4 2.9 3.5 1.5 3.1 5.6 6.4 Mauritania
4.5 4.8 4.3 4.1 6.7 6.5 6.0 6.0 Djibouti
Somalia
4.0 3.5 2.7 2.7 2.2 1.0 2.1 3.5
Oil Imported Arab Countries
Arab Countries Total (1) 3.4 2.5 2.1 1.3 2.8 2.9 1.0 1.8
* is expected.
Source: Arab Monetary Fund, Arab Economic Report Database and national, regional and international sources.
(1)
Except for Syria.
Third: Statistical Appendices



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