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[size=36][rtl]Transforming Iraq's economy into market systems, theory and practice[/rtl][/size]
Thursday 18 April 2019
Thursday 18 April 2019
Dr.. Mohammed Riad Hamza
The transition from the socialist economy to the market economy was not easy for Russia and the East European countries before and after 1991. The manifestations of that era are still present despite the passage of more than a quarter of a century since the collapse of socialist regimes in those countries. Although the societies of those countries enjoyed stability and mature political awareness that was ripe for understanding and adopting change. As well as the integration of infrastructure
To their economies.
In the sense that most of the components of the transition to a market economy exist in those countries. So far, the transformation of an economy has not yet been achieved
Iraq inherited from Saddam Hussein's Baath regime an economy collapsed not only because of the 13-year siege, but because of the tendency of that regime to spend most of the national income on armament and then "folly" to wage two wars. The Iraqi economy was not socialist in the practical sense of the socialist system. During 35 years of Baathist rule, Iraq's annual financial resources (national income), gross domestic product (GDP), or "annual fiscal budget"
There is no real presence of the private sector in the basic production and service activities except in the service of the system, and it was not "kindly" for some to win
The Iraqi economy continued to be exhausted after 2003 because of the terrorism that led to the confusion in the management and waste of public funds, as well as the continuing spread of corruption, as acknowledged by the prime ministers (Maliki, Abadi and Abdul Mahdi).
Iraq's economy after 2003 inherited a heavy legacy of indebtedness to most of the world. The infrastructure of the oil sector was no better than other economies. The reality of the Iraqi economy today and after 16 years needs a double effort to sustain growth.
The national economy, battered by the war on terror, is spending more than 70 percent of the annual financial resources of crude oil exports between 2003 and 2017. This is not a reality of a transition to a market economy.
Is not pessimistic about the reality of its disadvantages to disrupt immediate and future action to lay the foundations for a strong and sustainable Iraqi economy
Iraq, with its natural and human resources, is prepared to absorb 100 million people with European welfare. The (decisive condition tool) is managed politically and economically on the basis of experience, integrity and allegiance to the nation before any loyalty ... The transformation of the economy to the market system from a political and economic reality, And the implementation of the rehabilitation of infrastructure for agricultural, industrial, financial and trade relations. As well as the establishment of a security achievement covering the entire provinces of Iraq. To attract national investment
In a World Bank report published in early April 2019 (Iraq: Economic Prospects), the Iraqi economy is gradually improving after the severe economic pressures of the four years
Real GDP growth is estimated at 0.6 percent in 2018, thanks to a marked improvement in security conditions and rising oil prices, reversing a 1.7 percent contraction in 2017. The non-oil economy saw rapid growth with a growth rate of 4 percent, Oil production slightly lower than in 2017 in line with the agreement
Recently, the Iraqi economy has received a boost of confidence in the signing of several trade agreements with neighboring countries. Reconstruction efforts are proceeding at a moderate pace. Inflation remained low at 0.4 percent in 2018, but slightly higher than in 2017 due to rising domestic demand as well as rising food and transportation costs. Economic outlook improved due to higher oil prices and improved security situation. But constraints on capital spending will hinder accelerated growth in recovery.
Growth is expected to rise to 8.1 percent in 2020, mainly due to higher oil production and exports. Non-oil growth is expected to remain positive on the back of higher investment needed to rebuild the infrastructure and private consumption network
However, the recently approved 2019 budget represents a significant increase in recurrent spending. Unless there is a major reorientation in the fiscal policy of the comprehensive recovery approach, there will be limited fiscal space to support post-war recovery and long-term development.
Rising spending, coupled with falling oil prices, would raise the projected budget deficit by 5.4 percent of GDP in 2019 before cutting it to around 3 percent in 2020-2021. Lower oil prices and increased imports will translate the balance of current transactions into a deficit, partially financed by international reserves. "
The World Bank, in its November 9, 2018 report, looks to the future with the expectation that Iraq's economy will maintain an annual growth rate of 2.2 percent over the next five years to 2023.
The report of the Fund (on the prospects of global economic growth), the real GDP growth rate of the Iraqi economy by the end of this year is expected to reach 1.5 percent.
Economic growth is expected to reach 6.5 percent in 2019. Inflation is likely to stabilize at 2.2 percent this year and next. The IMF and World Bank projections are close and can be adopted for future planning.
Modern capitalist theorists mistake the possibility of shifting from marginal marginal economies in Third World countries. To "capitalist market economy" by applying market laws applied in capital systems in developed industrial countries.
Perhaps the economies of Arab oil-exporting countries are examples of those countries whose governments dominate most of the production of goods and services relying on financial resources from oil exports as a basis for financing spending
In other words, we can not find the same foundations that can be converted from semi-total systems to market systems between day and night. Iraq's economy may be a model of realities and components to sort out conditions of an era of political instability
I wrote dozens of articles on the development of the Iraqi economy after 2003 and most of them reviewed the obstacles that make its development a major challenge to the government. And not a repetition or re-describing the reality of the Iraqi economy, but constructive criticism must reach the decision makers in the legislative and executive authorities
The challenges of the Iraqi economy have been diagnosed and the government should be aware of them. It must be emphasized that confronting these challenges requires specialized expertise in all sectors of the economy in decision-making in the three authorities.
Iraq at the moment requires a government of expertise and is the way to achieve progress and manage the country's resources on the basis of knowledge and loyalty to Iraq.
The minister is not specialized in the affairs of his ministry and he has no experience in managing them. He can pass on a lot of malicious manipulation of his corrupt employees. Under-Secretary, Director General and Chairman of the Commission
In a brief study published on the website of "Informatics News Network" on June 27, 2018 for Alkadtur Sadiq Hussein Al-Rikabi (Economist "London"), which included the reality of the Iraqi economy and possibilities of its development through the integration of economic sectors and the development of the legal environment and private sector participation and the application of a new vision for the oil sector and natural resources Council , Development of work in the sectors of agriculture, industry, transport, communications, tourism, reconstruction, banks and other productive and service sectors, activating banking and investment activity, and developing a realistic tax system within the framework of fair and strict regulatory systems. And the adjustment of monetary policy under the supervision of the Central Bank to achieve monetary policy consistent with the development plans and regulate the market selling currencies and strengthen the role of the Central Bank in the control of the work of banks and invest cash reserves in line with international changes. The study included valuable proposals for the development of the Iraqi economy.
The following paragraph is necessary to recall the dictates of dictatorships and totalitarian regimes. Let it take the article into a coherent formula
For his goal.
One of the most important reasons for the collapse of the regimes of "totalitarian dictatorship" is lying to the self and portraying reality in what is not. The flags of these countries were politicized and controlled by the security services of the systems and their intelligence, used to exaggerate and reflect the reality of the local economic reality
And silence the voice raised criticizing either to be killed or deposited in prison cellars. Saddam's rule may be Baath. Mubarak, Egypt and other Arab regimes ruled this out. Therefore, one of the most important developments of development is to hear constructive criticism, not hypocrisy.
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