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 Mountain Goat 9/26/18

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PostSubject: Mountain Goat 9/26/18   Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:12 pm

September 26, 2018 Mnt Goat News Brief

Hi Everyone,

I bring you much news today.

UPDATE ON THE ELECTION SAGA

The news period since Monday has been very slow. I suspect that come Oct 2nd the flood gates will open up from the news media. But still no news of when they intend to vote on the new prime minister position.

Again, I am telling everyone that there is some entity that is holding back and stalling the formation of the government. I keep asking myself why are they waiting until Oct 2nd constitutional deadline to vote on the president?

We know that this is mainly a ceremonial position only and the job does is not a very demanding or influential position compared to the other two presidential positions. Is it maybe because of the choice of the three vice presidents are at stake and they do not want the Iranian goons having a piece of the government thus a conflict in choosing these positions? Just asking…..

So we do not see any date set yet for the announcement or voting on the prime minister position. We know they intend to vote on the president but not the prime minister on Oct 2nd. We have read a few articles from MPs and legal experts they would prefer to have this vote for PM also in the same session when taking the vote on the president.

More news….

CBI STILL MOVING AHEAD, SLOWLY AND CAUTIOUSLY

Meanwhile in the background we know the CBI is still moving ahead on the “project to delete the zeros” but they can not move to “Level 3”, as I depicted in my attached diagram today until certain conditions exist. This diagram is presented to help you understand and see that the CBI as moved to another level with the project to delete the zeros. Some say they even implemented the smaller category notes. I can not argue with this statement since we can now clearly see the emphasis of currency in circulation is now on these 250, 500 and 1,000 notes. But let’s now make such general statements without backing it up fulling with understanding. So let me clarify this statement.

But remember these 250, 500 and 1,000 notes were already integrated into circulation and so this part is NOT new. But the EMPHASIS AND DESIRE TO NOW USE THEM IS NOW NEW.

The CBI has just recently even told us that they fully intend to infuse yet even more of the 20, 500 and 1,000 notes into circulation. Why would they do this?

They are doing this since these notes are now the most widely used notes in Iraq. They are even going after the worn-out notes and replacing them. They do not even mention the larger 3 zero notes anymore. But we know they are still there. We know that the CBI told us these older 3 zero notes will coincide with the smaller category notes for at least 10 years.

Many question this move by the CBI and ask if this is a fair evaluation of what is really now going on or is this just more of this intel guru crap?

How can the CBI do this since this will put wads of currency back again into their hands, something the CBI was trying to avoid?

Yes, there are many reasons why the CBI does not want wads of cash in the hands of the citizens. Mainly because of the corruption standpoint, then there is the banking standpoint. If the cash is not in the bank, the banks do not have the liquidity to loan out the money and use the revenues from the loans as their revenue sources (moving away from the revenue from the currency auctions). So this argument does make total sense.

However, those that make these kinds of statements are not understanding the process the CBI is now taking in the project to delete the zeros. This is why I come to you today too is to explain this process much more clearly. It is time to do this.

The CBI told us it would be a very slow rollout and conversion (or redenomination) over to the new smaller categories of notes. It was only with the completion of the rollout of the electronic banking that has enabled this to happen and it was the tool that finally enabled the CBI to accomplish their goal of getting 2/3 of these larger 3 zero notes out of circulation.

Iraqi citizens today are using the Point of Sale (POS) debit cards. Much less cash used at the marketplace. If cash is needed, it is limited to a daily limits only per account and is dispersed mainly through the ATMs. This is much like in the major developed countries such as the UK, USA, Japan, China and Russia. They all have moved to this model decades ago.

Are there still the larger 3 zero notes in circulation?

Yes of course, I just said only 2/3 were taken out of circulation and so 1/3 still remain. Don’t forget also we hold some of this remaining 1/3. The CBI wants to retrieve these too. There are even some of the ATMs in Iraq that are still dispersing them. But this is short lived not the norm or the trend the CBI wants to push the monetary policy towards. These ATMs are only temporary and will change over as more of the smaller categories are dispersed by the CBI in the coming weeks and months.

You have to keep telling yourself that this is a transition period and so some people in Iraq will take to it easily and trust the banks with their money while others will still feel secure only with the large 3 zero notes and having wads of currency in their pockets.

So, let me explain more what this “Level 3” is that I show in my diagram.

The movement to this level 3 is slow and gradual but can not go on for very long time once they launch into it.

I can only go by what I know and refuse to make up lies. This is what we know for sure:

We know that the denominations the CBI still has to yet disperse are the 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 notes and coins.

We know that in late 2015 the CBI told us they planned to issue the 100 notes but then later in early 2016 told us the are holding off until a more conducive time period. So the 100 dinar denomination is probably the most likely note to be issued next. This will be a very good sign for us they are then moving into level 3.

We know that the CBI has since told us that late 2015 was one of the periods when they fully intended to reinstate the currency and were going ahead with the newer small categories, however they did not have assurances from the IMF and the USA that the reinstatement would actually occur on time or take place. So they backed off.

Connecting the dots

Do you remember all this? I do and you have to remember to stay sane in this ongoing RV drama.

Many keep asking me - Will this RV ever occur?

So now you know it will soon and is actually underway. It is at the point now they almost can’t recall it and MUST keep going forward in the process. So this is the very good news of today.

But it is a process and a slow process. The CBI must wean the citizens slowly off the 3 zero notes. This is now happening. Once they disperse these massive amounts of the Level 2 currency (250, 500 and 1,000) bills there will be no turning back. They told us they plan to do this next month (October). I can conclude that the 100 dinar note will be launched soon afterwards.

But of course, they told us this before and backed off on it before. So, this leads me to believe that this is the PIVOTAL EVENT that will force them to the POINT OF NO RETURN in the process and thus MUST keep going to the next step of the plan – to level 3. Especially when they do finally launch the 100 dinar note.

We know that when the CBI moves into level 3, at some point they must increase the value of the currency in order for the country to function inside and outside of Iraq.

We know that this level 3 includes the reinstatement just prior to or during this phase.

We know (since they CBI itself has told us) that the reinstatement will be at a much higher rate and the currency will be re-pegged off the sole de facto peg to the US Dollars to an “SDR basket” of five currencies, one of which will be the US Dollar.

We know (since the CBI itself has told us) that they want to move the Iraqi dinar back to its “glory days”.

We know that during the “glory days” of the dinar was during the 1930’s and 1940’s..

We can then look up the past rate of this period and see it was steady at around $4.86 USD per 1 dinar. This leads me then to believe that this is around the stabilizing, normalized rate that the CBI intends to have dinar someday soon.

So where to the elections part come into the picture of getting the RV?

Again I am only going to tell you what we know for sure and then try to connect the dots for you. So just recently the CBI told us they intended to disperse massive amounts of the smaller category notes in April. But they held off on it. Why? Once again they had to hold up and slow down on level 2 of the plan. So now they are telling us again they are moving ahead with it. This news only came out AFTER they elected the speaker of parliament. Soo we wait for the other two presidents to be elected. But does all this really matter?

I firmly believe that who ever gets into office would be fine with the CBI but the CBI does not “reinstate” the currency. The CBI only manages the monetary policy and suggests and requests the reinstatement. So the ultimate power lays in the hands of the USA and the IMF. The other aspect of this saga is the corruption. This is a concern of the CBI since it directly impacts the monetary policy. So in the election this becomes the concern of the CBI and the main connection of the CBI to the election results.

Will the next prime minister, speaker of parliament and the president fully support the goals of the CBI in anti-corruption legislation, bringing those responsible for the corruption to justice and in banking and financial reforms? These are the main concerns of the CBI. So we can clearly see the CBI does in fact have something at stake in the election results. So why in hell would the CBI not wait until this election saga is over and the can see the results? I am just asking…..

But more importantly you should not be hanging on ever moment and deadline in this parliamentary sessions either. Waiting for the new presidents to be announced. This is insane behavior since we don’t even know what the CBI will actually do once the election finally winds down. Then again, they may decide to wait and infuse these level 3 notes very slowly into circulation and time it to early 2019. We just don’t know. I don’t think the CBI even knows as we can see from the past they are flexible. The set targets but can easily move these targets.

Remember too we don’t know what we don’t know and so there may be other underlying factors involved for all the stalling of the formation of this new government. One factor that comes to mind is maybe because we know that Haider al-Abadi will NOT get a second term as the prime minister and no one is sure just what the new prime minister will do. So they are stretching out Abadi’s remaining time and have business they want him to attend to now before the new prime minister takes power. Just asking…..

More news….

The speaker of parliament, Mohamed Halboussi, on Tuesday, set a deadline for the election of the President of the Republic.

A parliamentary source told Alsumaria News that "the Speaker of the Parliament, during its meeting held today, the second of October next date a deadline for the selection of the President of the Republic."

On Tuesday, the House of Representatives held its second session under the chairmanship of Parliament Speaker Mohamed Halboussi.

The Information Department of the House of Representatives published on Wednesday the agenda of the third session to be held on Thursday.

The table said that the council will choose tomorrow its two rapporteurs and vote on Basra decisions.

The Council will also vote according to its schedule to form the Provisional Legal Committee. There is nothing about voting on any positions.

A parliamentary source said on Tuesday that the Presidency of the House of Representatives adjourned the meeting until Thursday.

More news….

Economy news _ Baghdad

Iraqi Central Bank Governor Monday, activating the CBI initiative to finance small and medium enterprises which aims to stimulate the country's economic cycle.

Banking Advisor to Iraqi private banks Association Chairman Samir Al Nassiri in interview for "economy", "the Governor of the Central Bank during a meeting with banks on THE NEED TO IMPLEMENT SME FINANCE INITIATIVE WHICH AIMS TO STIMULATE THE COUNTRY'S ECONOMIC CYCLE, AS WELL AS CONTRIBUTION OF THE IRAQI BANKING SECTOR BOTH IN DEVELOPMENT ".

"The Central Bank was invited to a meeting next Thursday, which was a 27/9/2018 at the Central Bank to discuss ways to activate loans financing of small and medium-sized enterprises in the light of the experience of banks in lending and credit interest rates reconsidered as stimulating the rise in the number of loans granted to these Projects ".

He pointed out that "banks calls for giving the elasticities specify sectors and projects and reviewing some of the terms and conditions governing lending mechanisms.

(Mnt Goat – if you look at the diagram I sent of the 3 levels of the plan of the project to delete the zeros, you will see that this initiative is within the 3rd and final level.)

*************************************************************

Formal Articles are below. Due to FACEBOOK limitations they do not print my RED colored fonts or italics, so my comments are in brackets ( ) throughout the articles. I will preface my comments with “Mnt Goat” so you know I am jumping in with observations. Also, I separated the articles with asterisks.

*************************************************************

Articles Begin

E-GOVERNANCE IS AN EFFECTIVE WAY TO COMBAT CORRUPTION IN IRAQ BAGHDAD /

AL-MASALA:

One of the root causes of the unrest in Basra in southern Iraq is corruption, a problem that the federal government faces. Fortunately, Iraq is able to address this problem through a number of anti-corruption measures, including egovernance, unified service centers, the encouragement of civil society participation and random inspection procedures, all of which have been successfully applied in other countries.

While the special circumstances in Iraq may pose some challenges to the implementation of these tried measures, these tools may be necessary to revitalize people's trust and facilitate the provision of basic services E-governance.

The first of the above measures is e-governance, which means the use of ICT by the government and private organizations to achieve effective management.

E-governance is a useful anti-corruption mechanism because it reduces the number of interactions with employees, speeds up decision-making and limits human error. Although the initial costs of e-governance are high, they provide long-term money and ensure transparency at the same time.

For example, after Slovakia adopted online bidding for certain goods and services, the cost of waste collection fell by one-third from its original cost of € 900,000 in 2008 to € 600,000. Slovakia has also passed a law requiring government institutions to publish their contracts and revenues online, thereby greatly enhancing bureaucratic transparency. In the case of Iraq, significant gains can be made in applying e-governance practices.

By facilitating bureaucratic procedures, ensuring transparent public procurement and creating a transparent tax system, the Iraqi government can attract more foreign investors and, as a result, accelerate reconstruction and improve service delivery But it should be noted that it may be difficult for Iraq to implement e-governance.

Since the beginning of 2018, the country does not have a valid postal system, which is one of the primary requirements for online transactions and for the reliable banking sector.

It is therefore not possible to make a technological update overnight. However, IRAQ CAN OVERCOME THIS GAP in its potential by requiring every individual to open a bank account to rent a mailbox, provided that it is available at a price not exceeding $ 20 per year. When opening a bank account, customers can also be provided with guides that include information on how to participate in eServices online

What is meant by all this is to say that the launch of e-governance in Iraq may not be easy, but it is not impossible to overcome this challenge of a

single window.

The term "single window" refers to a system that collects representatives from various government institutions responsible for providing different aspects of the same public service in one geographic location that a citizen can visit to obtain that service.

This system has proven its ability to accelerate service delivery, reduce costs and reduce the need to verify information and documents In Iraq, the National Investment Authority, established by the government in 2007, is a model of a unified service center. However, due to lack of coordination between national and provincial authorities, foreign companies still face difficulties in investing in Iraq.

Therefore, in order to achieve more effective results, it would be prudent for Iraq to follow the example of the United Arab Emirates in the application model of the unified service center based on the following stages:

First, the services included in the unified service center system can not be randomly chosen. In the past, such services must have been submitted in a manner that has been subject to many complaints, that the demand for them is high or that services are necessary for investment;

Second, after selecting the services to be provided by the unified service centers, the Government should prioritize each service;

Thirdly, with a view to establishing a unified service center, the Government should develop a plan of action that would draw up streamlining services and define the responsibilities of each participating body. Encourage the participation of civil society.

Civil society organizations can play a very useful role in fighting corruption: evidence shows that these organizations are effective in monitoring and evaluating anti-corruption efforts, exposing corrupt practices, implementing regional and international anti-corruption initiatives, and building alliances to support anti-corruption measures Random Inspection Random inspection is a common and widespread procedure in the United States, and is very effective because it increases the likelihood of detecting corrupt practices, especially when the ability of institutions to expose such practices is weak and when opportunities for corrupt behavior are available Washington Institute.

(Mnt Goat – Definition: E-governance, expands electronic systems to the governance process. It is the integration of Information Management and Communication Technology in all the processes of government practices. The system has built-in triggers and audit mechanism that alert and notify possible cases of corruption. The aim is of enhancing the government’s ability to detect corruption, to speedily address it and notify authorities.)

*************************************************************

IRAQ IS ON THE VERGE OF ECONOMIC RENAISSANCE AND RADICAL CHANGE IN ALL ITS POLICIES

Guest of the seminar: Economic expert Dr. Alaa Al-Qusair - economic adviser to the Iraqi parliament speaker.

The German government sent the president of the European alliance and the representative of the two parties cdu and csu Thomas Parais to Iraq to meet with Prime Minister Haider Abadi , in order to develop joint plans for the establishment of investment projects aimed at promoting the infrastructure, job creation and elimination of unemployment, in addition to combating illegal immigration.

Siemens also announced on Sunday that Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi had handed over a road map to produce electricity in Iraq.

"The group has since held a series of meetings and received a positive response from the government," a spokesman for the German company said.

"Through our proposal, we aim to add 11 gigawatts of electricity in four years, provide thousands of jobs in the country, support anti-corruption, and develop skills and education among Iraqis."

Abadi has already announced a preliminary agreement with Siemens to rebuild and develop the country's electricity sector, which has been suffering from deterioration and neglect since the US occupation.

Will European countries compete to invest in Iraq? Is the Iraqi environment suitable to attract investment and capital?

On this subject, guest of the program "Where the truth" on the radio " Sputnik " economic expert Dr. Alaa Al-Qusayr:

"The German companies have considerable experience in the Iraqi industry. From the 1980s until 2003, there was a great role for Germany in building various Iraqi industries and on its military and civilian lines. They have experience in restoring Iraq's infrastructure. The Iraqi government has to go ahead with contracting German companies to build projects. The strategy missed by Iraq, in order to promote economic reality, will be started with Siemens to build the Iraqi energy system, the government today laid the first brick for these projects, knowing that the Iraqi government does not have sufficient expertise for to deal with such a large project, where there is economic backwardness in the field of culture, we need global companies that own banks, in order to be an intermediary between the Iraqi government and foreign investors, ability of the Iraqi investment bodies are limited and unable to deal with investors. "

He continued: " Iraq is on the verge of economic renaissance and radical change in all its policies, and next to the stage to be the leading in the reception of such companies that have also realized this trend of Iraq, there is a change and awareness of the Iraqis that the backward administration in the institutions of the State that led to The emergence of these problems, and this change may come through demonstrations or through experience, and the new Iraqi parliament speaker is ambitious young and seeks economic change and tries to reunite all classes of society.

"Through my experience, the direction of Iraq to invest will be towards Western European countries, such as Germany, France and Britain, and the United States will not have much room in the investment sector and infrastructure, but in the military areas."

(Mnt Goat- WOW! Can the news get any better? I have to tell you this news of Seimens getting the electric grid back up and running is fantastic news. How are they now doing POS and electronic banking today? How are they even using the ATMs without steady electricity? But they are doing it now but with major struggles and hurdles. But the Iraqi people are amazing people given the freedom and opportunity. So can you imagine how this country will take off once the entire power grid is back up to steady 24/7 electric services…..? Wow!

I also want to add my comment that I do believe that the Iraq people are resilient and steadfast people but at the same time these attributes make them vulnerable to the vultures of corruption. They are easily swayed and don’t take the time to learn about these corrupt politicians who convince them they are going to do so much for them only later to disappoint them. Have they learned their lesson yet? Is this next election really going to make any difference or is this all just talk like from previous elections? With Mutada al-Sadr in the mix I firmly believe it will.)

Articles End

Their words not mine…..No Rumors, No Hype, No Opinions ,,,,,

Just the FACTS!

Disclaimer: All information in this newsletter is not intended for investment decisions / purposes. Mnt Goat is not a financial analyst, planner, banker, attorney or associated in any role with giving out professional investment advice.

In ending I want everyone to know your constant prayers in the fight against evil (ISIS) in Iraq have worked. God has guided these young men and women on the battle field. Let us all now know that there is a new battle now to fight. A battle to save our homelands from the corrupt politicians who are bent on taking what they want from our current wealth and from future generations without our permission. We must keep praying for the end to the ramped corruption in Iraq and in the United States.

We must pray for our leaders when they are being guided by the Holy Spirit. We must stand by them and let them know we are still there to support them, even after the election is over. I have composed a prayer maybe we can all pray today in our own way and until the revaluation of the Iraq dinar occurs?

PRAYER

“For the Iraqi Prime Minister and the President of the United States, that all their cabinet members, and deputies may be anointed by the Holy Spirit to do God’s will and bring forth the free democracies of the Republic of Iraq and the United States of America to the much-deserved prosperity and abundance. To do this thru justice and freedom from oppression and corruption. That they may be a shining example for the rest of the middle east and to rest of the world to follow.

In the name of Jesus Christ our King and Savior, Amen”

Auf Wiedersehen

Much love to ya all,

Mnt Goat
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