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"Where are we?" - BGG News Highlights at Dinar Updates 8/27/18

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"Where are we?" - BGG News Highlights at Dinar Updates 8/27/18

Post  Ssmith on Tue Aug 28, 2018 8:23 am

Dinar Updates

BGG News Highlights & Comments​


BGG ~ Where are we with this investment?

It’s something I get asked all the time. So many have been wrong – me included.

Here are some thoughts on the current situation that may help some folks. So many say the politics don’t matter to the currency. This isn’t exactly accurate.

The politics impact the economy… Iraq’s currency is, by many astute accounts, “grossly undervalued”. A basic definition of currency? It is a promissory note on the underlying economy of the country.

I am assuming any governing body with say in this matter is going to refrain until the results are final and a government transition is made or is being made. Just my thinking.

How is this formation coming along? There are now two main groups competing for the chance to form the next GOI.

On one side you have the “Nucleus” of Sadr, Abadi, Hakim and Allawi… roughly 136 seats (the largest bloc will need at least 165). Abadi seems to be the clear favorite from this group to lead for another term.

On the other side there is Ameri and Maliki with 73 seats – it seems to me, most of the delay has been from this side of the aisle. They have burned ballot boxes (Maliki, that is…) cried fraud, stalled, steered, stared and stalked over and over.

Why? They need to delay things long enough to cause some drama and along the way figure out how to patch together some kind of wicked alliance that will get them to 165.

The remaining players (still in play and up for grabs) are the KDP with 25 seats, the PUK with 18 seats and the “National axis” created just recently of middle of the road Sunnis – Nujafi, etc, etc, etc… who have roughly 20 seats.

​These three groups (the KDP, PUK and the Axis) appear to have entered into some kind of loose negotiating alliance with one another.

Whichever side attracts this group or part of this group, probably wins.

(See this source article: http://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/150820181)

Barzani has been making noise that he and Maliki are the closest. This doesn’t surprise me. These two have been in some hinky, crooked alliance going way back.

​However, there is also news the Sunni “axis”, with those roughly 20 seats are already about to join the “Nucleus”… if this is true… and if the recent news of Sadr and Abadi making big concessions in Kurkuk to the Kurds (not to the Barzani family directly)… is accurate… well, from there the electoral math for Ameri and Maliki gets very, VERY difficult. I’ll leave you to your calculators.

When? No clue – but all of the above is why Abadi has been pushing for a quick resolution. Sooner is better for them and worse for the bad actors.

Speaking of which – it would also not be impossible for a late stage defection of Ameri to the “Nucleus”… it’s on the table. When he gets the idea it’s inevitable, he may well move.

As a footnote: one more bad move by Barzani (as in; the referendum) landing him on the wrong side of history with his hand in the cookie jar… might well get he and the KDP HAMMERED in the free and fair KRG elections supposedly coming in September – which you can bet will be overseen by the UNHRC (the UN).

In fact, the PUK (Barzani’s counterparts in Kurdistan) might well allow Barzani to make such a move and then split from him – aligning with Sadr and Abadi…

If this happens, it’s a slam dunk for the “Nucleous” without Barzani. It would also probably doom Barzani and the KDP in the fall. Not an impossible scenario.

Short story: I am very encouraged with what we are seeing in the news right now. It’s no guarantee of anything right away – but it looks like some big moves being in the right direction.
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