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Don't Listen To Gurus (7/16/2013)

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Post by Sam I Am Mon Jul 16, 2018 2:39 am

Most dinar investors have trouble understanding this investment that they've put hundreds, thousands, or even tens of thousands of dollars into.  They're new to the world of currency speculation and are looking for somebody knowledgeable who can guide them through the process.  Well one of the rules for success in life is "find a need and fill it", so many dinarians have volunteered their services over the years and have taken on the role of intel providers, armchair economists, and researchers or "newshounds".  These people have become known as "gurus".  

The problems with gurus are numerous.  First of all there's the accountability factor.  Most gurus are anonymous and if Iraq ends up redenominating as they've stated they will the gurus can just disappear or move on to the next scam.  A real currency/investment expert will state their name and be sure to state the risks of any investment as well as the potential upside.  You'll never hear a true investment expert say things like "this is a winning lottery ticket" or "quit your job and pack your bags - this baby is done!"  If they're a true professional they'll plan on being around for many years and will take that into consideration with every investment they analyze.  If their track record is poor it could jeopardize their career, so they take every precaution to thoroughly examine each opportunity and assess the pros and cons.

Next is the lack of credentials.  Some gurus have degrees in other fields but none that I know of have degrees in economics or finance.  (A few of them say that they have traded on forex which I don't really get, because a forex trader would understand that the way you make money trading currencies is to make large leveraged purchases electronically with a spread of less than 1% and look for a profit of usually no more than 2% rather than paying a spread of up to 20% to buy paper currency and wait for it to RV 1000% or more.  But I digress.)  Rudy Coenen claimed that he was a VP at JP Morgan Chase, and that gained the confidence of many dinar investors for awhile, including me.  But he was indicted for fraud and that claim was one of the lies he was charged with and pled guilty to.  A true currency professional will be happy to provide you with their credentials to prove their qualifications.

And finally there's the simple grasp of facts.  A true professional won't be caught in constant misstatement of facts that are easily debunked.  Here are a few examples of what I'm talking about from the month of June.  

On Sunday June 9 Jester said:

"FIRST A LITTLE BACKGROUND ON CURRENCY TRADING AND MANIPULATION… THE TRADING OF CURRENCIES INVOLVES SHORT OR LONG TRADES AND SPECULATION ON WHETHER THE VALUE WILL GO UP OR DOWN ON EITHER AN OVERNIGHT OR WEEK TRADE… BECAUSE CURRENT CURRENCIES ARE NOT ALL BACKED BY A MANDATED FORMULA OR SYSTEM THEY CAN EASILY BE MARKET MANIPULATED BY ECONOMIC FORCES…
NOW THINK WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF YOU KNOW THERE IS A GLOBAL RESET ON THE HORIZON… MANY CURRENCY TRADERS ARE SEEING THE REAL WORLD SIGNS THAT THIS IS HEADING OUR DIRECTION… TRADERS COULD MAKE MILLIONS OVER THE WEEKEND BY SHORT OR LONG TRADES ON SOME OF THESE SMALLER COUNTRIES THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING SIGNIFICANTLY THIS PAST WEEK… SO, A GLOBAL RESET WOULD PROVIDE A SERIOUS PROBLEM FOR THOSE WHO COULD AND WOULD MANIPULATE CURRENCIES FOR SELFISH GAINS…
SO THE QUESTION IS… HOW CAN THIS BE AVOIDED TO PREVENT MISUSE AS WELL AS VOLATILITY TO THE MARKETS?
SOME MORE BACKGROUND… WHEN A COUNTRY’S CURRENCY IS REVALUED A NEW CURRENCY SYMBOL IS CREATED… A GOOD EXAMPLE WOULD BE WHEN MEXICO REVALUED A FEW YEARS AGO… THEIR CURRENCY SYMBOL CHANGED FROM MXP TO MXN… THE N REPRESENTS THE NEW CURRENCY VALUE AND IS NO LONGER TRADED UNDER THE OLD SYMBOL…
THIS IS WHAT IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW TO ALL THE WORLD’S CURRENCIES AS THEY ALL WILL HAVE NEW CODES… THIS WILL ELIMINATE SOME TRADER SHORTING A CURRENCY OVER THE WEEKEND AND PROFITING FROM SOMETHING SOME OF US CAN SEE HAPPENING…"

http://www.dinarrecaps.com/1/post/2013/06/jester-and-i4u-members-chat-saturday-afternoon.html


All you have to do to see through this tosh is conduct a few minutes of research on revaluations and redenominations. No new currency symbol is needed for revaluations.  The exchange rate is simply adjusted and it's over.  Think back to January 2012 when the rate in Iraq went from 1170 to 1166.  That was a revaluation.  The currency symbol of IQD didn't change.  All that changed was the rate.  No new currency was required either, because revaluations are just small adjustments that easily fit into the parameters of the existing currency.  Redenominations do require a new currency symbol however, as well as a new currency preceded by an educational campaign to prepare the people for the currency change.  What happened in Mexico was a redenomination.  They lopped three zeros off of their currency and issued 1 new peso for 1000 of the old.  Sound familiar?  That's what the CBI has stated that they intend to do with the dinar.  Jester is confusing the concepts of redenomination and revaluation.  Whether he's doing it intentionally or not I don't know, but what he said is flat out wrong.


On Thursday June 13 Breitling said:

"I know for a fact that the dinar is undervalued." 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9vw3uMrTu4  (21:44 in)


Really Tony?  How do you know this for a fact?  From your contacts at the IMF or the CBI?  Well I don't have any contacts at either one, but here's what the IMF has stated.  

The CBI [Central Bank of Iraq] will continue to aim at keeping inflation low, predominantly by maintaining a stable exchange rate. The low level and the relative stability of inflation do not suggest any significant over- or under-valuation of the Iraqi dinar. Also, a stable exchange rate continues to provide a solid anchor for the public’s expectations in an otherwise highly uncertain environment and in an economy with a very low level of financial intermediation.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2011/cr1175.pdf


Stryker repeated this misconception a couple of weeks later when he said:

"I am using my educated guess and saying that Iraq has the most undervalued currency in the world and that they and we want the CBI to show us the real value and I believe they are close to do this."

Breitling, Stryker, and other gurus assume that the dinar and dong are undervalued because their value is so low in comparison to the US dollar, but all you have to do is look at the bloated money supplies (in the quadrillions for Vietnam) for both countries to see the reason behind those low valuations.


Recently I've been watching some of the nightly Stryker broadcasts just to see what insights he has on the dinar.  On Monday June 17 he said the following:

"We bought stock in their country.  Their stock happens to be their currency.  Just like ours.  Currency is perceived value of what a country is worth.  Stock's the same way."  

http://www.strykerblog.com/WebTV_Episodes.html (27 minutes in)

He repeated this misconception on June 24, referring to dinar investors as "stockholders" providing the funding for them to back their currency.  (24 minutes in)

I've stated several times in the past two years that one of the most common misconceptions dinar investors have is that currency is like stock.  It isn't.  If a company is growing and profits are increasing the stock's value will reflect that growth over time.  With currencies however, an economy can grow by leaps and bounds and yet the country's currency can (and often does) lose value against other currencies.  

In the following chart I've listed the 20 largest economies in the world.  Then I listed those same countries by currency valuation.  You'll see that there is no correlation.  Every country's currency is as unique as the nation it represents, and is valued according to a number of factors including money supply, GDP, political stability, their history of inflation .... etc.  Japan, for example has the third largest economy in the world, and yet the Japanese yen is valued slightly over a penny.  South Korea's economy is ranked 15th but their currency is valued about where Iraq's is at a tenth of a penny.  In the third column I've listed countries by GDP per capita.  You can see from this that Kuwait has the 6th largest GDP per capita even though their currency is worth nearly three times that of Luxembourg (the euro at $1.34) who has the highest GDP per capita.

GDP in trillions of dollars

1.     USA   $14.991
2.     China   $7.203
3.     Japan   $5.870
4.     Germany   $3.604
5.     France   $2.775
6.     Brazil   $2.476
7.     UK   $2.429
8.     Italy   $2.195
9.     India   $1.897
10.   Russia   $1.857
11.   Canada   $1.736
12.   Australia   $1.515
13.   Spain   $1.478
14.   Mexico   $1.155
15.   S. Korea   $1.116
16.   Indonesia   $.846
17.   Netherlands   $.836
18.   Turkey   $.774
19.   Switzerland   $.660
20.   Saudi Arabia   $.597
Value of currency

1.    USA   $1
2.    China   $.16
3.    Japan   $.011
4.    Germany   $1.34 (euro)
5.    France   $1.34 (euro)
6.    Brazil   $.46
7.    UK   $1.57
8.    Italy   $1.34 (euro)
9.    India   $.017
10.  Russia   $.031
11.  Canada   $.98
12.  Australia   $.95
13.  Spain   $1.34 (euro)
14.  Mexico   $.078
15.  S. Korea   $.00089
16.  Indonesia   $.0001
17.  Netherlands   $1.34 (euro)
18.  Turkey   $.53
19.  Switzerland   $1.08
20.  Saudi Arabia   $.27
GDP per capita

1.     Luxembourg   $88,797
2.     Qatar   $88,314
3.     Macau   $77,079
4.     Singapore   $60,688
5.     Norway   $60,392
6.     Kuwait   $54,283
7.     Brunei   $51,760
8.     Switzerland $51,227
9.     Hong Kong   $50,551
10.   USA   $48,112
11.   UAE   $47,893
12.   Netherlands   $42,779
13.   Austria   $42,172
14.   Australia   $41,974
15.   Sweden   $41,484
16.   Denmark   $40,933
17.   Ireland   $40,868
18.   Canada   $40,420
19.   Germany   $39,456
20.   Belgium   $38,723


My point here is that a currency's value is no indication of a nation's worth, wealth, or standard of living.  If Iraq was somehow magically transformed into the world's largest economy overnight it doesn't mean that they will have the world's most valuable currency.  For that matter it doesn't mean that their currency would increase in value at all.  


Now let's take a look at stocks.  (Market cap is derived by multiplying the stock's value by the number of shares of that stock.)

Largest Companies by Market Cap (in billions)

1.   Apple   $500
2.   Exxon   $400
3.   PetroChina   $265
4.   BHP Billiton   $250
5.   ICBC   $240
6.   China Mobile   $235
7.   Wal-Mart   $230
8.   Samsung   $225
9.   Microsoft   $220 
10. Royal Dutch Shell   $220
  Approximate Current Stock Valuation

  1.   Apple   $432
  2.   Exxon   $91
  3.   PetroChina   $109
  4.   BHP Billiton   $63
  5.   ICBC   $5
  6.   China Mobile   $50
  7.   Wal-Mart   $75
  8.   Samsung   $1200
  9.   Microsoft   $35
  10. Royal Dutch Shell   $66

These are all approximations since stock prices fluctuate on a daily basis.  As you can see Samsung's stock is selling for almost three times the price of Apple's stock despite the fact that Apple's company is worth over twice as much.  So we can see from these charts that a stock's price doesn't tell you what a company is worth any more than a currency's price tells you what the country is worth, so in that sense I would agree that currencies and stocks are similar.  But there is no perceived value of a country based on the currency's valuation as Stryker stated.  And there is certainly no reason to assume that a growing economy would result in a higher currency value either.  Any time you hear a guru saying that a currency is the stock of a country you know it's time to stop listening.  



Then on Tuesday June 18 Enorrste said:

"... the CBI is stating that their CURRENT money supply of 33 trillion dinars, which is worth about $30 billion, is covered by 2.5 times with their $80 billion in reserves. In other words, their current money supply has 250% coverage. Having said that, let's assume that Iraq does what it says it will do and withdraws the large denominated notes beginning in January of 2014. We can reasonably suspect that about 7 trillion dinars are outside of the country. This would mean, then, that they would withdraw about 26 trillion dinars from circulation. Of course these dinars will have to be replaced, as they have said (otherwise they would have NO dinars in the country) and they have stated that they will issue 25 Billion dinars to replace the 26 trillion that they remove. Now, let's go one step farther... 

The new money supplied within the country will amount to 25 billion dinars. If, as they say, they allow the VALUE of the dinar to rise to "about $1), then if they have $80 billion worth of reserves at that time, then they will have over 300% coverage of their money supply, in country. Furthermore, they could allow the dinar to go to $3 per dinar and still have over 100% coverage of their money, keeping them as the strongest currency in the world. 

So what happens with the 7 trillion dinars outside the country? They are cashed in by speculators and end up as reserves by the countries that cash them in. Just as their are trillions of dollars sitting as reserves around the world (i.e., not a concern to our country), similarly there will be trillions of dinars sitting as reserves around the world and Iraq will not need to be concerned about them. In short, they will never return to haunt Iraq any more than our dollars have returned to haunt the US...They will announce a float and draw in the dinars within the country during the next 6 months to 2 1/2 years, and replace them with new small denominated notes as the value rises and the smaller notes become necessary for commerical activity within the country. They are on record that this will take about 2 years beginning in 2014.

Furthermore, they are on record that the issuance of the NEW currency will occur in January of 2014. IF they need small denoms between now and then (the next 6 months), assuming the float is announced shortly, then they will use the ones that were printed in 2003 and that are sitting at the CBI for that purpose (existing small denoms of the same currency we hold.) Bottom line: this is talking about the final stages in preparation to unfold the plan. This is ALL GOOD!" 

http://www.dinarrecaps.com/1/post/2013/06/part-2-enorrste-tlar-dinar-alert-member-discussion.html


First of all, they didn't say that the foreign currency reserves now equal $80 billion.  Turki predicted that they would have that much in the FCR by the end of July, and that was disputed by the economic committee.  But let's just assume that it is now $80 billion.  All that would mean is that their money supply would probably just expand that much more, because their policy is a stable exchange rate.

After that he says that Iraq announced that they will replace 26 trillion dinar with 25 billion.  This claim is more accurate because they have said that they will remove three zeros from their currency which would mean that the value would go from $.00086 to $.86 and the money supply would go from a figure in the trillions to one in the billions, but they have always stated that in the context of a redenomination rather than a revaluation as Enorrste is suggesting.  Also, the figure of  26 trillion was the total cash outside of banks at the time which has now grown to over 33 trillion.  Enorrste is apparently subtracting the amount that they said they would remove from circulation in a previous statement from the current amount in circulation and concluding that the 7 trillion difference is dinar outside of the country that they're not concerned about, but in a redenomination all currency in circulation is demonetized no matter where it is.  

The next claim that Enorrste makes is that Iraq said they would begin removing the large denominations in January of 2014.  They have never said that.  They have always referred to removing the zeros and replacing ALL of the IQD with a new currency at a ratio of 1000:1 old for new.  The idea that they are only referring to the large notes when they talk about removing the zeros is guru BS.  I've written about this in "Deleting the Zeros" and included eight examples of other countries who issued statements about removing (cutting, lopping, chopping, slicing, deleting .... etc.) zeros from their currency and not once did it refer to larger denominations only.  In every case ALL denominations were demonetized and replaced with a new currency at a higher value with a smaller money supply.

In the next paragraph Enorrste claims that they said they would allow the dinar to rise to about $1.  Wrong.  Their currency reform plan is a redenomination that would replace the current dinar valued at $.00086 with a new dinar worth about $.86 which is close to $1, but there's no rise here.  No float.  No increase.  Just a neutral exchange as has happened dozens of times over the years with currencies all over the world that experienced hyperinflation as Iraq's currency has.


Juest a few examples, ladies and gents, of why you shouldn't listen to gurus.    




Don't Listen To Gurus (7/16/2013) Sam+%25282%2529

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Post by Scotchie Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:32 pm

Worth reading.   Yes, there will be a redenomination, not a revaluation.  All the dinars held by U.S. citizens will continue to be worth what they are today = nothing.  Great for wallpaper for the den.  The bathroom is already wallpapered with zim.

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Post by Allenj Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:20 pm

well it was good reading and i agree with but one thing, redenomination and a revaluation in both cases they do change the rate in some way will change not like the gurus think and that is what a RV is and they don't have to change the rate to have a revaluation now before some of you get your butts up in the wind on what i just said a RV of revaluation is just "

  1.  the act of estimating or setting the value up or down of something; appraisal.
"they don't have to change the value of the Dinar to have revaluation (RV)" how many of you guys see that
    2.to increase the legal exchange value or decrease (to diminish) of (a nation's currency) relative to other currencies.   
 this will blow the dum ass GURUS out of the water because they are so stupid they don't even understand what they post to increase   or  decrease (to diminish) as of right now we / nobody knows what the CBI will do any one that said they do know is lying. Am i picking side with the GURUS  HELL NO and never will just my input now they have gave a little what they may do or intent to do but that can change so we really don't know what they are going to until they do it and they aren't going to tell us anything till it happen

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Post by Jayzze Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:25 pm

please do not do that because how  else  will they make a living honestly?
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