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Kaperoni: says There can never be an RV or an RI or any other singular event because there's just too much currency in circulation.

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Kaperoni: says There can never be an RV or an RI or any other singular event because there's just too much currency in circulation.

Post by RamblerNash on Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:12 pm

Guru Kaperoni   

 There can never be an RV or an RI or any other singular event because there's just too much currency in circulation.

 That is a fact.  

I'm not saying that dinar will never go up, in fact I believe it will, but it's never going to go up overnight it's going to go up over time and it'll be directly related to the investors and investment in the country.

[well the bandwagon came and went. 90 days over. No Article 8?...] 

...I never said they would move. I said it was a requirement TO move to Article VIII. 

Compliance is important to the IMF. That being said, i do expect the CBI to write the letter accepting Art VIII as soon as possible.  I stated in March that not only would Iraq have to meet IMF compliance but they probably would wait for the formation of the new GOI before accepting Article VIII. 

That being said, waiting is risky for the CBI.  Iraq needs to end the auctions to stop the risk of depleting reserves, they need investment, and they need to put people back to work.  

If they fall out of compliance they will be required to go another 3 months maintaining the spread at 2% or less.  Risky...  

These requirements are not flexible.  The CBI has to prove they can do this in order to move to Article VIII.  

These are the big boys, bankers who know what they are doing.



Guru Kaperoni  

  How are you going to control inflation when large sums of money come into a country if you're not going to float your currency?  All anyone needs to do is...read two or three of the documents from the IMF on the transition from fixed to float to understand how currency reform works.  

You cannot be pegged when large influxes of capital flow through the CBI, the only alternative to being pegged is a float.  

This is not guesswork, the IMF themselves told the CBI back in 2012 when they were about to transition the move to a more liberal exchange rate regime. 

The very definition of that is a float...we see the CBI follow the IMF time after time.  Considering the IMF has an agreement with the CBI for monetary reform as well as trusteeship over the CBI the chances are very good that they'll follow what they recommend.

 Over the last couple of years there are more than 10 articles talking about floating the Iraq dinar. There is only one article that talks about the timing is not right to float the Iraqi dinar.

 My money is on the directives from the IMF, Iraq will float it is the only option.  By definition moving to a more liberal exchange rate regime is moving to a float. 

Monetary policy is not a random act. Changing exchange rate regimes going from a peg to a float Etc all have individual purposes...they are used to stabilize economies or combat inflation.

 Iraq is expecting a large influx of capital ...some say it's going to be the wild west of the Middle East this will put severe pressure on the financial system of the CBI. 

 The recourse is get off the peg move to a float to combat the pressure allowing the currency to rise and value. 


3 days now passed the 3-month IMF requirement, CBI continues to be in compliance at 1200 to $1.

...Iraq is 96% dependent on oil sales what that means is they could never sell oil below market price because they would be under cutting their own budget.  Remember 70% of the budget is wages as most Iraqi's are on the state payroll. Selling oil for $32 a barrel would prevent them for making payroll.  Until Iraq and diversify and create a market economy and reduce the dependence on oil they are at the mercy of meeting that budget.  The actual cost to produce a barrel of oil is about $10 yes but Iraq has many other expenses on top of that that make the sale of any oil for less than $40 not profitable.

With 96% oil dependency Iraq must pay for everything from oil sales from infrastructure projects, salaries of employees, defense spending and of course a lot goes to corruption. Iraq's budget for 2018 was $88 billion dollars. Iraq currently produces about 4.5 million barrels per day of oil. They would have to make at least $62 a barrel to break even on the budget including production cost.  This is why the idea of oil credits or selling oil for $32 is just not feasible.   I've said for years the dinar that we hold that was sold outside Iraq will never go back...it was part of a controlled leak to prime the pump of sorts to create momentum for the Iraqi dinar worldwide which eventually will end up in other central banks around the world.


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