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BGG 5/20/18

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BGG 5/20/18

Post by Ssmith on Sun May 27, 2018 8:43 am

I was proof-reading The BLOG when something jumped out at me (see my comments below)...

Kaperoni – The CBI stated a year or so ago, once they start it could take 2 years to delete the zeros. What that means is that the dinar will appreciate gradually (float) as stated in the IMF Article IV Consultation. My view is that once the conditions are met, They accept Article VIII, and move to a float, it could take another 2 years to raise the value of the dinar to a value where the zeros are gone. Not saying it will take that long but it is a directly related to investment. This is why the IMF stated the Balassa-Samuelson effect in the 2012 Article IV. The truth is, if investors are lined up to participate in Iraq, it should happen fairly quickly. But it is up to Iraq to create the right environment for the value to rise. At that point all we can do is hope that investors come to Iraq, begin the substantial rebuilding and investment phase creating inflationary pressure on the CBI to raise the value.

Read more: http://www.dinarupdates.com/observer/

The first line... "The CBI stated a year or so ago, once they start it could take 2 years to delete the zeros".

and the second line... "What that means is that the dinar will appreciate gradually (float) as stated in the IMF Article IV Consultation"...

...aren't CO-JOINED as FACT. The first line is a portrayal of fact. This is likely an accurate (or factual) representation of CBI statements (no telling if they will follow this plan).

However, though the second line is also PORTRAYED as immutable FACT, it is NOT. It is OPINION.

While I generally allow latitude in my thinking for Mike's research, I have to make this point...

What the CBI is referring to, in the first line, is how long it may take to extract the large notes from the market place. There is NO GUARANTEE this statement has anything to do with the actual value of the notes - nor at what velocity the value might rise. None whatsoever. This is an OPINION.

For instance, what if...

The value rises quickly to around a dollar (as so many of their other documents have noted) and then stagnates for a year or two?

There are many investors who might be willing to sit on their currency in it's current form (as IQD) and wait for further increase. What's the harm? It could be a good play. More upside and (potentially) defer a tax burden until a later date.

This scenario would validate the CBI statements regarding how long it may take to "delete the zero's" just as easily (maybe more so) as the first.

Other than that - I don't mind anything he said. As long as the value rises, what do I care who is right? I would much rather take the financial gain than the validation. Very Happy

P.S. You will pay taxes.

Life Rules:

1) No one makes it out alive...

2) You will pay taxes. You can (legally) defer, You can (legally) MITIGATE, You cannot EVADE. That $4it is ILLEGAL and they throw people in jail for it all the time. Don't be stupid.

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