Four challenges facing Abadi before the end of his mandate

Four challenges facing Abadi before the end of his mandate



Twilight News

3 hours ago

Shafaq News / Six months is all that remains of the government of Prime Minister Haider Abadi after three years of noisy events, busy during the war on the organization "Daash" and culminated in the victory finally after the restoration of control over all the towns occupied by "Dahesh" in the summer of 2014.

But The next one will not be easy. My servant, who took power with a heavy legacy from his colleague in the Dawa Party, is facing other problems.

When Abadi took office in August 2014, he was not envied, and he launched a deep disagreement with his party leader, former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who described treason after his removal from power, while a third of the country was under the control of extremists, The capital of Baghdad, while the treasury of the state of the money empty coincided with the decline in world oil prices to less than (20) dollars in a country that depends 95% of its national income on oil production.

Today, the political crisis with the Kurdistan Region after the referendum on independence from Iraq, the organization of legislative and local elections, the adoption of the general budget in the country in the midst of a financial crisis suffocating, in addition to the future of "popular mobilization" the most important challenges facing Iraq.

Crisis with Kurds

According to the report of the debate, the crisis that broke out between Baghdad and Erbil was outside the accounts of Iraqis ... Despite the passage of more than two months, and the announcement of the Kurdistan Region finally his desire to dialogue with Baghdad to resolve differences, but the government of Prime Minister Haider Abadi does not seem enthusiastic, Time to grab gains on the ground makes them the strongest party in negotiations.

So far, Abbadi sets two basic conditions for starting the dialogue. The first is an explicit announcement by the KRG to cancel the results of the referendum on independence, which received the approval of 92% of the Kurds. The Kurdistan Regional Government tried to implement it by declaring respect for the Federal Court's interpretation of the unconstitutionality of the referendum. They say that a declaration of respect is different from declaring a revocation.

The second condition is the insistence of the federal government to manage the international border crossings of the Kurdistan Region with Turkey, Iran and Syria and the deployment of federal forces along the border strip, and this raises the concern of the Kurds of the possibility of future threat through an economic blockade, as a large part of the imports of the Kurdistan Regional Government comes from the ports Border border.

"The volume of trade exchange with Turkey has reached 20 billion dollars, and with Iran, seven billion dollars," said the leader of the Kurdistan National Union Party, Abdullah al-Haj Saeed, an indicator of the size of the loss that the region may face if it gives up the crossings for the government. Federal.

In the past few days, the attitude of the big powers has changed somewhat. When the crisis began, they supported Abadi and criticized the Kurds. But as Baghdad's exaggerated reaction to the crisis, the arrival of the federal forces and the "popular crowd" in the suburbs of Arbil, and Abadi's enthusiasm for dialogue, Especially the United States and the European Union to pressure Baghdad to dialogue and stop the actions against the region.

A senior official in the federal government preferred not to mention his name to "Niqash" that "dialogues with the Kurdistan Region will start soon, but will not be easy if the Kurds adhered to rigid positions, the dialogues will address at first the military file and map the deployment of federal forces and Peshmerga on the borders will be agreed upon "He said.

Elections

in April Local elections were scheduled to take place in the country, but the Iraqi government was unable to organize them, and the Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish parties agreed to postpone them and merge them with the legislative elections scheduled for May next year.

After months of heated debates in parliament, deputies have been able to choose a new election commission whose members are the main parties in the country, as usual, but the commission is not the key to holding the next elections. The new political and social conditions that emerged after the war are daunting.

Sunni parties are not eager to hold elections next spring. The cities that have been the grassroots of these parties have been devastated by battles against extremists over the past three years. Half of their population is displaced outside their cities to this day because of security chaos, fear of arbitrary arrests and the collapse of services and infrastructure.

"The government must provide the requirements of a democratic election if it insists on holding elections after six months. It is not reasonable to organize elections in the Sunni provinces and the popular mobilization forces are deployed, and millions of its people are still," she said. Live in displacement camps outside their cities. "

The war on "Da'ash" has changed the balance of political power. There are armed groups involved in the fighting that want to exploit its division to participate in politics. The Shiite factions affiliated with the Popular Gathering organization and the Sunni tribal formations seek to present themselves as a substitute for traditional parties.

Despite the fact that the party law passed by the parliament in 2015 and will be implemented for the first time in the next elections prevents the armed formations from participating in the elections, these factions have started to elude the law by registering themselves as parties and new names, which is of concern to the government and traditional parties that fear losing their balance. Political.

In the end, the next elections will be the most important in the country for being the first elections to be held after the elimination of the organization "Dahesh." Although Abadi announced last Saturday that elections should be held on time, Shi'ite parties accuse him of seeking to postpone elections and extend the government's work for two years.

Financial crisis and corruption

A day after the Iraqi security forces announced the restoration of control of the town of Rawa in Anbar, the last bastion of the country's "bastion", Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said that "the next battle will be against corruption," but this battle will not be easy in a country where corruption corrupts all parts of the state Over the past decade, while the country is facing a financial crisis suffocating because of low oil prices and substantial material losses incurred by the country in the war against "Dahesh."

At a press conference in the province of Karbala, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said on 11 of this month that the loss of Iraq in its war against "Daash" amounted to 100 billion dollars. "

Abadi knows more than any other the magnitude of the economic challenge facing his government. The man who took power and the treasury of the state is empty and his rule coincided with the collapse of world oil prices in a country whose national income depends mainly on oil is well aware that the economic problem is the most serious.

Everyone's preoccupation with the war on "Dahesh" has not allowed to highlight the secret economic crisis facing the country. No one has asked how the government has managed over the last three years to walk the country despite the costs of the war.

With the end of the war began Iraqi officials talk about it, and announced a member of the Finance Committee in Parliament, MP Ahmad Haji last week that "Iraq currently owes 120 billion dollars, and the fate of the country is in danger," while Vice President Iyad Allawi, (133) billion dollars.

The Iraqi government last week sent a draft budget law to the parliament, according to MP Hilal al-Sahlani. The budget deficit is 20 percent, with rumors about the government's intention to cut the salaries of more than four million civil servants.

The Kurdistan Regional Government also criticized the draft budget because of the reduction of its share to 12% after it was in the past years 17%, which forced the Kurdish deputies boycotting the Federal Parliament to return to the meetings to prevent voting on this formula, especially after the Territory lost independent financial resources obtained through the sale of Kirkuk oil .

Sunni MPs are eagerly looking forward to the allocation of their destroyed provinces, which need more financial allocations than usual for reconstruction, and reassuring their angry residents before the elections. This means that discussions will be waged between the parliament and the government on the budget.

The future of the Shiite factions

A few days ago there was growing talk about the future of the Shiite factions known as the "popular crowd." Abadi has to deal with an ideological armed force of more than 100 thousand fighters. If the army goes to its barracks and the police to the regional centers, New tasks?

The Shiite factions are divided into three sections, affiliated to Iran and religiously linked to the Iranian leader Ali Khamenei, who belongs to the Shiite cleric Ali al-Sistani in Najaf, affiliated to the Iraqi Shiite parties Sadr's movement led by Moqtada al-Sadr, and "Islamic Supreme Council" led by Ammar al-Hakim.

The factions belonging to Iran differ from each other as the strongest and the most popular and popularly known as the "state crowd", which is loyal to the rule of the rule of the jurist in Iran, and considers that Iraq and Syria one front, and confirms that its presence continues, and the number about (20) Badr, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Hizballah Brigades, Saraya Kharasani, Najba, Imam Ali Battalions, the Martyrs Brigades, the Missionary Brigades, and the lion's lion brigade. And the forces of Abu al-Fadl al-Abbas.

The proposals of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, announced over the past months about the future of the Shiite factions through the inclusion of those who wish the fighters to the army and police and are rewarded with others and their return to civilian life, is completely rejected by the factions close to Iran, while the United States is pressing Abadi to end this File.

On the contrary, the factions affiliated to the Shiite cleric Ali al-Sistani, most notably the "Abbas Combat Team", and the faction of "Saraya al-Salam" of the cleric Moqtada al-Sadr respects the government's decisions and works in coordination with the Ministry of Defense, and declared willingness to resolve itself after the elimination of " With the first Sistani military brigade merged with the Iraqi army in July.

Abadi, who succeeded during his rule in keeping the stick from the middle in the thorny files and avoid engaging in discounts with the political blocs, and the conflicting international wills, especially between the United States and Iran, is now in the decisive stage, and he has to make crucial decisions before the end of his mandate, and these decisions may not appeal to everyone , While the man seeks to maintain his popularity in preparation for the next election to grab a new term.

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