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 Mountain Goat 10/20/17

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Mountain Goatee
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PostSubject: Mountain Goat 10/20/17   Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:10 pm

October 20, 2017 Mnt Goat News Brief



Hi Everyone,

I bring you much news today.

So once again today let me clarify yet more misunderstandings being passed around. This ones from Randy Koonce (Dinar “Guru”) –

So this is what he said to us recently and I quote –

“So learning from the mistake that Kuwait made, the CBI said the ‘Float’ will be ‘Managed’… What does Managed mean?… if you look at the currency now and realize it has been this price for at least 10 years – that’s a Managed Float! … They control the rate…. they peg it off of the Dollar and the British Pound so that it will not move unless they want it to. Which is the reason they will need to RV the currency to get the rate they need…”

So what is wrong with Randy’s analysis?

Thanks Randy for trying to help put but you do not get a cigar for your effort. So now about telling everyone what it really means to “float” the currency.

So let me tell you –

First let me say this information comes from:

IMF Working Paper European Department Limits of Floating Exchange Rates: The Role of Foreign Currency Debt and Import Structure Prepared by Pascal Towbin and Sebastian Weber† Authorized for distribution by Ashoka Mody February 2011 This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.

So again let us look at the FACTS and only the FACTS. This is NOT my opinion.

So what is wrong with Randy’s analysis?

Well Randy does not understand why the Iraqi 3 zero notes were issued in the first place and what the value was really pegged to and why the IMF decided to peg it.

So let me clarify this first.

Within the 10 years of the Iraqi embargo prior to the 2003 war with Iraq, the Saddam Hussein currency went into hyper- inflation. This was an intentional stifling of the economy, while pressure was exerted while complying with UN resolutions for the inspection program for weapons of mass destruction. Essentially the economy of Iraq fell apart. Remember the oil for food program. Why in hell do you think they had that program?

Contrary to many of the beliefs by the dinar investment community, the rate as this time was not even close to the infamous $3.22 rate, everyone talks about and uses to justify this investment. So let me dispel this rumor.

Next, once the newer 3 zero notes replaced the old Saddam notes, they had to slow down and stabilize the economy somehow. How did they do this? They did this by issuing the news notes along with instituting the a “de facto” peg of these notes to the US dollar. This was pegged to the US dollar only and not the British pound. So Randy you are wrong!

The CBI and IMF have told us this countless times already in articles and news. So Randy should go back and study all these articles and he might learn something instead of coming out and shooting off his big mouth to sound like a big shot, look important and a know it all.

Next, this “de facto” peg is not a float and is not even close to a float the IMF has talked about putting the Iraqi dinar on, once they move the currency out of sanction restrictions (which I believe they are now doing) and back to “full” international status. I don’t care to get fussy in what specifically they will call the float they will use but it will be a “fixed float” in that the market will determine the value based on supply and demand for the currency. In other words, they will fix an initial value and let the market drive it. Then, if needed, they can “fix” the value to control it. This is an available tool and only a tool the IMF uses. I can see why everyone gets so hung up in this because you equate all this to what happened with the Kuwait dinar and you are told by these “gurus” that it can happen too with the Iraq dinar. So can it?

Let’s debunk this entire Kuwait dinar stuff now.

First of all Kuwait did not make any mistake. Again Randy is buying into this ridiculous comparison to Kuwait. Why was it a mistake for the market to drive up the rate and make a few millionaires? Are you implying your version of a “fixed rate” is now going to prevent this with the Iraqi dinar ? (lessons learned?)

Kuwait did not lose their existing currency and get it replaced;

Kuwait was not in sanctions and an embargo for 10 years;

Kuwait did not have hyper-inflation;

Kuwait did not their country and infrastructure torn apart by war;

So here is what the IMF did do (this is FACTUAL):

The IMF simply turned off their currency for a short time so that the occupiers (namely Saddam) could not use the value of their currency to support their lofty goals. Once Kuwait was freed again, they turned it back on. Very simple?

The free market then took an initial hike from speculators as it was on a float (as most currencies are anyhow so what’s the big deal?). The IMF then stepped in and regulated it due to speculators. The rate then stabilized.

Will this happen to the Iraqi dinar?

I can tell you there is no reason to compare the Iraqi dinar to the Kuwait dinar experience. The is no reason why the Iraqi dinar may not rise very quickly once they unplug it from the financial sanctions and restrictions and place it back on the open market. If it gets out of hand, the IMF will simply step in and regulate it. But when they do, this it will be with the old 3 zero notes combined with the newer lower denominations. Both will coincide for up to 10 years, as the CBI has told us. This is not Mnt Goat telling you this but rather the IMF and the CBI. I have no control over this. No one can predict the timing of this serge so don’t even try.

So the IMF may use the fixed float as a tool if deemed necessary and they see the rate (not necessarily the value) getting into a highly speculative window. By using the “fixed” rate float, they can slow it down and regulate it by fixing the rate. But don’t they do this now anyhow will almost all currencies on the global exchanges?

Yes – they IMF now closely regulates and watches every currency value very closely. There have been a few that slipped through the cracks but were quickly monitored and controlled. This has been, in part, the reason for all the new global banking regulations. Get it? There is absolutely no reason to believe the IMF will not watch the initial launching of the new rate like a hawk!

While under sanctions - so what the CBI is currently NOW doing with the 3 zero note rate is simply adjusting the value for inflation and this is NOT to confused with a fixed float, like the IMF plans set the dinar eventually on (and soon) once out of sanctions. The dinar is planned to be pegged at his time to an SDR basket (five leading global currencies). I can tell you emphatically, the IMF will NEVER peg any global currency just to the one other currency. This is committing financial suicide for that country. So all this crap about the US dollar crashing once China was put into the SDR basket is foolish. I wish these idiotic gurus would all just dry up and blow away…..lol…lol….

If the CBI did not keep tabs on the value of the inflated dinar, it could get out of hand very quickly with the Multiple Currency Practices (MCP) being exploited by street venders and the banks. These exchange spreads have cost the Iraqi people billions already.

The IMF has asked the CBI (as a condition of their last few SBAs) to crank down on these MCPs and regulate the spread. It was not until the PM Abadi got serious about the reforms that this happened. The spread is the amount that can be made on the buying and selling of the currencies in Iraq. These spreads can easily cause the true value to get way out of hand if not controlled. The CBI has accomplished this goal by requiring the licensing of vendors and banks to sell currencies and changing over and restricting the currency auctions. People were making a fortune off of the currency auctions. This caused the Iraqi dinar to get even more de-flated against the dollar because everyone in Iraq wanted the US dollar cause they could make so much money off these exchange scandals. Get it? How?

People were falsifying documents in order to get the US dollar from the currency auctions. They also did falsified travel documents to get the US dollar saying they needed it to abroad and then never traveled. They then would the take the dollar and resell them with a very high spread (much higher than the CBI spread). Also they were funding terrorists operations this way (thus the need for the money laundering reforms).

So I don’t really like the way Randy compared the currency rate adjustments to the dinar rate by the CBI for inflationary measures, to the how the free market controls in the future will help stabilize the dinar currency. They are not currently using a fixed rate. It is like comparing apples to oranges. Two entirely different tools being used. This is why people get so confused as to how all this will work out. We keep getting inundated by opinions of people who don’t know what the hell they are talking about.

Randy also implies that Iraq needs the RV to get the rate they need and the longer they wait the more likely it will inflate because the value is too low. Really? This does not even make a bit of sense, as I told you why the rate was so low – due to hyper-inflation. He implies there is no inflation.

He also implies the CBI needed to float the 3 zero note rate and this float allowed them to fix the rate. But the necessity to fix it is because the real value is not represented in the rate. Really? This is simply not true and could not be more false. This is exactly the kind of bizarre stuff and is the pinacol of why people are so confused. These so called intel “gurus” are not economist, financialist nor do they even try to learn what is really going on in Iraq.

Like I said the value is not now artificially low, as it is went into hyper-inflation due to the sanctions and embargo of 1991. The dinar has been valued at exactly the rate it deserves.

But having said all this - there are the recent Abadi reforms, the growing of the economy and the political stability and the security that has changed Iraq for the good and so it is time to change the value and progress to a new rate. But I want everyone to understand the recent history (since 1991 -2014) and all the bunk from the past and this Kuwaiti situation is simply not true. But now things have changed since the past election.

Iraq had 10 long years of economic decline to bring the currency to an all-time low in 2003 then the second invasion took place. More years of neglect during the 8 years of Nori al-Malik administration. Once the second invasion took place, it devastated the infrastructure and put the final touches on destroying the last of the economy. It was necessary to issue the larger 3 zero notes and go into the “de facto” peg. This peg and the new currency helped stabilize the economy and keep it from going into oblivion. I was there in Iraq and I know first hand exactly what happened and why. So please just listen to me.

They decided to use the US dollar (only the US dollar) for this peg simply because it was the most stable currency and it could be used as a gauge to adjust the value of the dinar. Thus, this stabilized their economy. This had absolutely nothing to do with the petro dollar (selling oil and using the US dollar as payment for it). Again more confusion.

So now Iraq is very quickly heading to financial freedom and the launching of the lower denominations. Some heard from Allag, that the currencies restrictions have been taken off the dinar. This is not true as Allaq did say in the coming period this would be done. Go back and listen to his speech again if you don’t believe me.

So we wait in anticipation for more progress in this direction. We know we must see a new rate close to 1:1 with the US dollar and together or very close the launching of these new notes. We have witnessed just alone in the past year extensive efforts to the remaining 3 zero notes off out of circulation. It was not until they implemented the electronic banking practices and the POS hardware in the marketplace, that this is now possible.

Will they RV tomorrow?

Who knows! - However, I fully believe we are in a very good window of time between the coming days and the beginning of January 2018.

This guy named Benny Wilson is claiming he has inside information that within 3-4 weeks the RV will happen and the banks will attempt to exchange everyone by March 2018 at the latest. BE careful of anyone talking about “inside information”. I think much of this he truly believes and I don’t question his beliefs. What I do question is who is telling him this and why?

Oh Benny, I wish you are correct but I have to tell you this sounds with a very familiar tone like the DC / Tony days of TNT info. But we all should know that DC and Tony were not entirely wrong back in 2013, as there was strong evidence (that come out later) to proof that they were correct. So what about this time? As then, as now I only wish and hope you are correct Benny as there seems to be some evidence that this may be correct, however there is a saying – “Don’t count your eggs until they have hatched”. We wait and see what happens.

Articles are below. Due to FACEBOOK limitations my comments are in brackets ( ) throughout the articles. I also separated the articles with asterisks.

Articles Begin

US DEPUTY SECRETARY OF STATE AWAITS THE KURDISTAN REGION PRESIDENT MASSOUD BARZANI RESIGNATION

(Reuters) – US Deputy Secretary of State for Iraq Affairs Joseph Benenton told the Kurdistan Region President Massoud Barzani on Wednesday that Washington is waiting for his resignation after the recent events, saying that his government is waiting for this action within the next couple of days and otherwise will intervene directly.

The news agency “Sky Press” of Iraq for Benenton, he expressed “disappointment of his country from the events that have reached the events, as Washington was considered to be the primary ally of Masoud Barzani, and when we asked the President of the region to postpone the referendum, We opposed it. ”

Benenton stressed that “his country is waiting for the president of the region to resign urgently, as that his stay in power is a mistake,” noting that “the political parties in the region all insist on the need to isolate Barzani of the pyramid of power of the region.”

This came after the reluctance of US officials to respond to Barzani’s contacts, according to Reuters.

The President of the Parliament of the Kurdistan region, Yousef Mohammed, this morning the President of the region to submit his resignation, in order to preserve the water face, as he put it.

The US Secretary of State, Telreson told the Prime Minister, Haider Abadi, his country’s support for the imposition of security in Kirkuk and disputed areas, stressing the need to preserve the unity of Iraqi territory.

***********************************************************

ABADI ORDERS “ARMED GROUPS” OTHER THAN POLICE TO LEAVE KIRKUK

by Mohamed Mostafa

Oct 18, 2017,

Baghdad (IraqiNews.com) Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi urged Wednesday a withdrawal of “armed groups” from Kirkuk, saying that federal troops have thoroughly imposed security in the province.

A statement by Abadi said security in Kirkuk has become “under the control of local police with support from the Counter-Terrorism Service”, ordering to “prevent the existence of any armed groups in the province”.

“Security forces in Kirkuk are tasked with protecting the security and properties of citizens of all stripes,” he said.

Iraqi troops, backed by Popular Mobilization Forces, took over Kirkuk province from Kurdish Peshmerga fighters on Tuesday, fulfilling Abadi’s earlier directives to retake areas where sovereignty is disputed with Kurdistan Region’s Government. The military takeover came after Kurdistan voted in September to secede from Iraq.

In his statement, Abadi urged to hold accountable whoever shares vidoes which he deemed fabricated to ignite “hatred” among Arab and Kurdish communities.

Abadi ordered prosecute “those who disseminate hatred and racism” through “fake clips” which seek to “sow sedition among citizens and endanger civil peace”.

Some Kurdish media and social network users have shared videos of what they claimed to be violations by Popular Mobilization Forces, the paramilitary force backing iraqi government troops, upon recapturing Kirkuk province.

Some Kurdish officials had accused PMFs of ransacking Kurdish-owned homes and businesses in Kirkuk and tuz Khurmatu.

US REPORT: BAGHDAD’S CONTROL OF KIRKUK SHATTERED BARZANI’S DREAM

Baghdad today – The Iraqi army’s control of oil-rich Kirkuk has shattered the Kurds’ dream of an independent state at least in the near future. The new entity also faces strong opposition from Iran, Turkey and the Arab states, according to a report by the Center for Middle East Studies in Washington.

“Baghdad and Erbil can reach a compromise for the Kurdish crisis through negotiations after the end of the military operation in Kirkuk,” the center said in a report published on Monday evening.

The report revealed the existence of “an error in the calculations by both parties on the basis that the Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Abadi, expected to retreat Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani for the project of Kurdistan, moving towards Kirkuk yesterday, while the provincial president did not expect to resort to Baghdad Military solution “.

“Assuming that the military operation in Kirkuk is limited and will not develop into a long Arab-Kurdish conflict, Baghdad and Erbil need to begin planning for the future,” the report said.

“Now, amid Arbil’s desire for secession and Baghdad’s insistence on Iraq’s unity, there can be political and constitutional arrangements that will be a field of research between the two sides when they sit together to negotiate their future relations.”

The report also said that Erbil would not be able to establish an independent entity without Iran’s approval, given Tehran’s wide security and political influence in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.

The conclusion of the report: “For Iran, the establishment of an independent Kurdish state means the existence of an entity of Israel on its borders .. Israel has confirmed this trend because it is the only country that supported the referendum for the separation of the Kurdistan region from Iraq.

Articles End

Their words not mine…..No Rumors, No Hype, Just the FACTS!

Auf Wiedersehen

Much love to ya all,

Mnt Goat



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