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 Mountain Goat 10/16/17

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PostSubject: Mountain Goat 10/16/17   Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:27 pm

October 16, 2017 Mnt Goat News Brief



Hi Everyone,

I bring you much news today.

Let me start off this newsletter by saying that I tried to give you proof that the referendum of Kurdistan Region, to succeed from the Republic of Iraq, is important. YES- it is VERY, VERY important and we can not just ignore it because someone of these so called “gurus” tells us it’s not so important. What the hell do they know anyhow? When have they ever been right?

I tried to present to you as much of the past history of the subject of Kirkuk and Article 140 referendum (as needed by implementing the new 2005 Iraqi constitution) and how this referendum is not the referendum the Kurds recently voted on, but is another referendum required by the constitution and is way overdue. They had 7years, until 2012 to work it out. It did not happen as it was blocked mostly during the waisted 8 years of the Nori al-Maliki administration. We all should realize by now, he would rather just kill all the Kurds and take over the entire Kurdistan region than to negotiate with them.

I tried to emphasis that this is the beef that Kurdistan has with the GOI. They simply have been waiting too long and too many promises. The GOI has been jerking them around too long. They want the Article 140 put into a law, voted on in parliament. They are not getting it.

To put pressure on the GOI, they passed their own version of a referendum as what I call a satire to the entire situation. “Their version” of the referendum was a slap in the face to the GOI. It basically told they GOI they have had enough. They gave them 6 months to work out Article 140 and now they are taking matters into their own hands. They will succeed from the GOI and take Kirkuk with them and part of the new Kurdistan.

Just last April of this year they were promised by the GOI that any obstacles to getting Article 140 referendum would be fixed. I would think this meant the much needed census too. But once again the GOI stuck it to them and held it up. Back last April, the KRG gave the GOI six months to implement it or else.

In my presentation of the FACTS I also showed you why the GOI could not pass a referendum to implement Article 140. These reasons included: lack of a recent demographic census, lack of provincial government, lack of understanding and agreement as to who was going to control the oil from this oil rich region.

Well, the Kurds believe this should have all be spelled out already in the referendum and so no more excuses. They are tired of excuses as to why it is not already done. A long standing DRAFT referendum was updated by Abadi’s cabinet and passed on to parliament for finality way back in early 2017. I presented articles to you on and how the speaker of the house, Joubori promised this law was about to be presented to the members of parliament.

So what happened?

Parliament rejected it based on not meeting the constitutional requirements of having an accurate and timely censes completed. But in 2016 and 2017 they could not do a census since ISIS occupied the region. The KRG claims the census was completed prior to ISIS occupation of the region. Why not use that one? The GOI claims much has changed and they need a more timely census. It goes around and around…..lol…lol….

Meanwhile, the Kurdish Peshmerga forces occupy the Kirkuk region and filled the gap once ISIS was defeated and gone. They are not going to give it up easily, since they believe the GOI has shafted them all along and found every excuse to not implement Article 140. At least they look at the reasons as excuses. After all the waisted 8 years of the Maliki administration was the fault of the National Alliance for choosing this candidate for the Shiite prime minster position. But they too bought into the 2010 elections results and signed on to Maliki too. Remember? So they are also not so innocent either. Who could have projected that Maliki would have turned out to be so nasty.

Today federal army forces from the GOI stand poised to attack Kirkuk’s Kurdstan forces. The Kurds just moved thousands more of their forces into the region to counter the Iraqi army, if needed. If they decide to occupy the region and throw them out.

So what is next?

News just in on Sunday….

A source familiar with the Iraqi Patriotic Union of Kurdistan SAID SUNDAY THAT BAGHDAD AND ERBIL REACHED A SOLUTION TO END THE CURRENT CRISIS BETWEEN THE TWO PARTIES.

The source said that the agreement, which was held in the city of Sulaymaniyah in the presence of President Fuad Masum, President of the Kurdistan region Massoud Barzani and the President of the Kurdistan Regional Government Nizrvan Barzani as well as leaders of the PUK and the Kurdistan Democratic Party, led to the joint administration of the city of Kirkuk, replacing the current governor of Kirkuk with another from the National Union. “

The source added that “the management of oil fields in Kirkuk will be shared, as was agreed on the return of the Iraqi army to the camps in which he was in Kirkuk before the entry of Dahesh.”

He added that it was “scheduled to witness the meeting discussed the crisis between the federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government, which erupted after the last referendum on the separation on the twenty-fifth of last September.”

The President of the Republic Fuad Masum, on Friday, to the province of Sulaymaniyah to discuss the crisis between the federal government and the Kurdistan region and the ongoing repercussions in the province of Kirkuk.

Lots of rumors spreading around, mostly from Iraqi news channels attempting to take advantage of the situation and cause a havoc and a civil war. But as the article below shows us, most of these rumors are in fact NOT TRUE! (see next article)

Baghdad scales news – Kirkuk Police Chief, Omar Aref, speech Saturday, the security situation in the city is calm and stable and THERE IS NO TRUTH TO WHAT SOME HAVE TOUTED IN THE MEDIA.

Dean issued a press release faxed/Arif scales news/, which reassured the townspeople to stabilize the security situation and tempers, considering what is promoted in some media “wrong and has no basis in reality.”

More news….

(Baghdad) The head of the Kurdistan Regional Government, Nechirvan Barzani, on Friday, Prime Minister Haider Abadi responsibility for military moves south of Kirkuk.

“We call upon Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, all Iraqi parties, civil organizations, the United Nations, the United States, the European Union and the member states of the war to urge the members of the Security Council and neighboring countries to intervene and have a role to move the region out of a new war,” Barzani said in a statement.

“The outbreak of war in the region will lead to the strengthening of al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations in the region,” he said, adding that “the consequences of the war will be very serious.”

(This does not mean they will have a war but the situation is sensitive and we should not just arbitrarily ignore it.)

More news….

Baghdad today. More on negotiations with Kurdistan. What do they now want? The latest.

The Ministry of Natural Resources in the Kurdistan Regional Government, on Friday, a five-point proposal to resolve the problem of oil export between Erbil and Baghdad.

A statement to the ministry, "The proposals as follows:

The government pays the union salaries of workers and workers in the region, Peshmerga forces, police, Asayish, and retirees, amounting to a monthly (915 billion dinars).

Baghdad believes the share of Kurdistan from the general budget of 17%.

Baghdad also provides the operational budget for the region, amounting to 17% of the federal operating budget.

The federal government provides financial dues to oil companies operating in the region and gave Kurdistan 17% of oil exports from Baghdad and the region.

More news….

Saturday Oct 14, 2017

IRAQI Kurdish forces pulled back from the edge of oil-rich Kirkuk yesterday, accusing Iraq’s army of launching an operation to retake the disputed city.

Peshmerga Lieutenant General Wasta Rasul said his forces evacuated positions south-west of Kirkuk city while an officer in the Iraqi army said federal forces had moved into positions left by the Kurdish forces in the same area, near the village of Bashir.

The troop movements follow accusations by the Kurdistan Regional Government that Iraq has commenced operations to retake areas of Kirkuk and neighboring Mosul province which are under the control of the peshmerga.

The Kurdistan Regional Security Council said on Wednesday that it was “receiving dangerous messages” that Iraqi forces were “preparing major attack in south/west Kirkuk and north Mosul on Kurdistan.”

It also accused the government-backed PMU militias of deploying fighters in two mainly Shi’ite Turkmen areas south of Kirkuk in a bid to provoke a confrontation. However the Iraqi government was quick to dispute the claims. “We deny any planning or thinking of an attack in Kirkuk,” a government spokesman said.

More news….

WHEN THE CBI TALKS, I LISTEN:

Al Nassiri said during his participation in the symposium hosted by the Graduate Institute of accounting and financial studies at the University of Baghdad (financial and monetary reform requirements in Iraq under International Monetary Fund directives) and "economy" attended ", the Central Bank has an evolutionary procedures and two years ago, the reform to meet the challenges faced by Iraqi banks because of the economic and financial crisis experienced by Iraq because of falling oil prices and the war on terror and structural and structural imbalances in the economy ".

NOTING THAT" ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL BANK TO PREPARE AND LAUNCH STRATEGY FOR THE YEARS (2016-2020) which included a major and subsidiary goals to achieve financial stability and development of the banking system in accordance with the mechanisms and new points of action but in a puddle of the Bank adopt visions and proposals through the Central Bank and Finance Ministry to analyze the financial position of banks.

Current and expected for years (2017-2020) and determine the actual need for liquidity to sustain cash circulation in the Iraqi market and revitalize the economic cycle in all fields and proactive plan to prevent bankruptcy and the collapse of some banks and perpetuate wheel banking business in the current circumstances and the use of mechanisms new tools and apps for monetary policy.

More news….

FOREX trading charts shows IQD highest run with best rate in 6 years, mid Sept thru current timeframe. However, still on the program rate. Still in sanctions. GOI has told us they plan to get “fully” out of sanctions by end of current year.

For months of Sept – Oct 2017 shows range 1152 - 1138 dinars per dollar. During Dr Shabs reign he got it to 1166 steady for 2 years so this new news is very, very good sign and tells us the currency is now having more steady value once again as the economy grows.

Remember value is not just all about the rate it’s about the economy and state of the country (stability and security) that makes the difference. We are now seeing this occurring in Iraq. The program rate is all fictitious anyhow and is just a gauge used to keep the economy up and running so they don’t tank with hyperinflation. It is now pegged solely to the dollar temporarily as to steady the currency and allow the CBI that gauge and monitoring ability.

We should not be watching this program rate to get to the point of the RV rates we have been hearing about. Don’t be deceived. The re-instatement or revaluation will occur suddenly and the rate will jump drastically once Iraq is out of financial sanctions and they begin trading the currency globally. We watch and anticipate a timeline once we see more solid indicators (final launching of the newer notes, articles from the CBI and re-education process for all this to occur).

We know there always seems to be a crisis in Iraq. The current one is now with the KRG vs the GOI over this referendum saga. This does now have a minor impact but the CBI and IMF are still moving forward with the process. We see the progress every day in the news. This could all change if they go to civil war over this succession issue.

Why is the rate now so good?

ECONOMIC STABILITY & SECURITY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

More news….

The Central Bank of Iraq announced on Sunday that the central bank governor Ali Alalak, went to the United States to participate in meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

He added that "it is hoped that the meeting on the sidelines of the meetings a number of central bank governors headed by the Governor of the Central Bank of Holland and the Governor of the Central Bank of Saudi Arabia," noting that "there will be a meeting with the Chairman of the Board of the Arab Monetary Fund in addition to meetings with a delegation from the US Treasury Department and many economic and financial figures. "

Articles are below. Due to FACEBOOK limitations my comments are in brackets ( ) throughout the articles. I also separated the articles with asterisks ****.

Articles Begin

***********************************************************

COMPLETING THE BIOMETRIC PAYROLL SYSTEM IMPLEMENTATION FOR KURDISTAN

Deputy Prime Minister Qubad Talabani (L) and Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani (R) were the first to register for the biometric payroll system last year.

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – OCTOBER SALARIES FOR GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES WILL BE PAID VIA THE BIOMETRIC SYSTEM for the first time since the program was first introduced a year ago.

(So here we have proof of what I was saying. There was resistance to the electronic banking from Kurdistan, but now this at least is going forward. They must implement this prior to any RV since they need to get 2/3 of the older 3 zero notes out of circulation. This is mandated as part of the process of this project. It seems they will now no longer be re-issuing cash any longer for Kurdistan either. But they need to move to phase 2 (military payroll and pensioners) and this is not yet done. They can’t just keep putting billions back into circulation each month. They must implement this plan to shrink the currency in the marketplace.)

“Employees’ salaries for October will be given on the basis of the biometric system.

IN THE FIRST PHASE, SALARIES OF CIVILIAN EMPLOYEES WILL BE SUSPENDED IF THEY FAIL TO REGISTER.

IN THE SECOND PHASE, SALARIES OF MILITARY PERSONNEL AND PENSIONERS WILL BE SUSPENDED IF THEY FAIL TO REGISTER,

” Samir Hawrami, spokesperson for the biometric system and media secretary for Deputy Prime Minister Qubad Talabani, told Rudaw.

On October 10, 2016 the government LAUNCHED THE MANDATORY BIOMETRIC system as part of austerity measures.

THE GOAL OF THE PROGRAM WAS TO CUT DOWN THE GOVERNMENT’S BLOATED PAYROLL BY ELIMINATING SO-CALLED GHOST EMPLOYEES AND CREATING A CLEAN LIST OF GOVERNMENT WORKERS.

Thousands of ghost employees and widespread fraud were uncovered during the registration phases of the biometric program.

THE REGISTRATION OF EMPLOYEES HAS NOW FINISHED, EXCEPT FOR SOME SECURITY AGENCIES. (they had a deadline of December 31 to register) Hawrami said fewer than 1,000 civilian employees have failed to register in the biometric system.

“The Council of Ministers should make a special decision for these people because the registration process for civilian employees has stopped,” he said.

THE OFFICIAL SAID THEY HAVE YET TO TAKE MEASURES AGAINST THOSE WHO WERE ILLEGALLY RECEIVING MORE THAN ONE SALARY. Under the new strictly regulated system, it is expected that the salaries of tens of thousands of people will be cut.

Over 1.2 million have registered.

(So now we know where all the money was going….lol…lol…)

*************************************************************

AL-NUSSEIRI HAILS THE CENTRAL BANK’S ACTIONS IN DEVELOPING AND REFORMING THE BANKING SECTOR

The economic and banking adviser, Samir Nusairi, praised the developmental and reform measures carried out by the Central Bank of Iraq two years ago to meet the challenges faced by Iraqi banks because of the economic and financial crisis experienced by Iraq.

Al-Nusairi said during his participation in the symposium held by the Higher Institute for Accounting and Financial Studies at the University of Baghdad entitled “THE REQUIREMENTS OF FINANCIAL AND MONETARY REFORM IN IRAQ UNDER THE DIRECTION OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND” and attended by “Economy News”,

“THE CENTRAL BANK OF IRAQ HAS TAKEN THE MEASURES OF EVOLUTION AND REFORM TWO YEARS AGO TO MEET THE CHALLENGES WHICH SUFFER FROM THE IRAQI BANKS BECAUSE OF THE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CRISIS EXPERIENCED BY IRAQ BECAUSE OF FALLING OIL PRICES AND THE WAR ON TERRORISM AND STRUCTURAL AND STRUCTURAL IMBALANCE IN THE MANAGEMENT OF THE ECONOMY, “noting that” despite the Central Bank to prepare and launch a strategy for the years (2016-2020), which included primary and secondary objectives to achieve financial stability and develop the banking system in accordance with new mechanisms and work points.

Mnt Goat notes:

(Ok what does this article tell us. It confirms information we already know. First is that the IMF is working with Iraq to develop the reforms. We know Iraq wanted to RV in January 2016 but instead was stopped by the IMF as instead they agreed that needed reforms were needed and do it through an IMF process called Stand-by-Agreement (SBA). These reforms were planned way back in 2011-2012 but PM Maliki would not support them. They had to be put in place prior to a re-instatement of the currency.

So now we read why they had to do all these reforms. I quote from the article – “ BECAUSE OF THE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CRISIS EXPERIENCED BY IRAQ BECAUSE OF FALLING OIL PRICES AND THE WAR ON TERRORISM AND STRUCTURAL AND STRUCTURAL IMBALANCE IN THE MANAGEMENT OF THE ECONOMY “

So if anyone who asked what was different from the targeted 2011 re-instatement attempt, we can see now why they did not do it then. They did not do it then because of the same issues they had in 2015 till lingering. They needed these reforms. These reforms are in the plan and the process to delete the zeros.

If you were listening back in 2011 you would have known about another earlier SBA by Iraq and the IMF, however Maliki did not want to deal with the IMF and so any efforts fell apart and nothing much happened with the exact same reforms we now seeing put in place in 2016-2017.




So then from 2014-to late 2015 Abadi did cut expenses and tried to install a more technocratic government. Do you remember this clean up? He also instituted many of the mandated anti-money laundering and anti-terrorist laws. This was all stuff under the 5 year SBA of 2011. Come the fall of 2015 the CBI was going to make another attempt but it too, as I said above failed due to not going all the way with the banking reforms and needed process for the project to delete the zeros.

So in 2016 the Iraq CBI launched a new 5 year strategy in conjunction with the IMF, to achieve the needed FINANCIAL STABILITY and develop the banking system in accordance with mandated new mechanisms. This is where we now stand. Will we have to wait 5 more years to get the currency in order to carry out this plan? I don’t think so since to grow to the desired levels they will need the currency for many reasons. Who said this was a get rich scam? … lol … lol….)

End of Mnt Goat notes, back to the article

However, this does not prevent the Bank from adopting visions and proposals through the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance analyzing the current and expected financial position of the banks (2017-2020) to activate the economic cycle in all areas and to develop a proactive plan to prevent bankruptcy and the collapse of some banks and the maintenance of the wheel of banking under the current circumstances and the use of new mechanisms and tools for monetary policy applications.

He added that “the current banking financing structure is plagued by many failures and obstacles and in order to increase credit and total funding from banks and to activate their contribution to various aspects of investment and reconstruction and to push the development process and move the economic cycle in Iraq, we see a serious step is to re-examine the policy of lending and bank financing and activating the optimization of financing private projects small and medium as a social and economic objective with special priority and urgent and that the Central Bank of Iraq has an effective supervisory and supervisory role. ”

He pointed out “the importance of activating the role of government banks, specialized banks and private banks to provide easy loans to the private sector, national individuals and companies in accordance with the initiative of the Central Bank to finance small and medium enterprises as well as finding solutions to the problems of taxes and accumulated benefits of the owners of projects suspended production.

************************************************************

AL-HADITHI: THE GOVERNMENT DOES NOT WANT TO CLASH WITH THE PESHMERGA BUT WANTS TO IMPLEMENT THE PROVISIONS OF THE CONSTITUTION

Baghdad Mawazine News

Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi said on Sunday that the government does not want to clash or engage in war with the Peshmerga forces in Kirkuk, reiterating the government’s stance on the implementation of the provisions of the constitution and the exercise of its sovereign powers.

“The Iraqi government’s stance against escalation is to reject the use of the Iraqi army in a war against Iraqi citizens of all components, including the Kurds, and do not seek to clash at all with the Peshmerga forces in Kirkuk,” al-Hadithi said in a press statement.

He added that Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi called on the Peshmerga forces to be part of the security effort to contribute to and participate in the process of stabilizing these areas, “constitutionally called the disputed, including Kirkuk,” and to ensure the existence of brotherhood and the interests of all citizens under the supervision of the federal government.

“We are trying to apply the law and the constitution with the mandate of the federal authority, as stipulated in article 143 of the Iraqi constitution, but this does not mean that we call for a clash or engagement or engage in a war with the Peshmerga forces in Kirkuk.”

Al-Hadithi stressed that “the federal forces do not want, and can not attack the Kurdish citizens and others, but seeks to implement the Constitution and ensure the enforcement of laws, in these areas and redeployment in the sites where they existed before 10 June 2014.”

And on the granting of the federal government, a deadline for the withdrawal of the Peshmerga forces from their positions in Kirkuk and the disputed areas and return to the so-called blue line drawn by the United Nations under the reign of US civil administrator Paul Bremer, after the fall of the former regime,

As for the existence of time limits or giving a specific deadline for the redeployment of the federal forces, which was present before June 10, Al-Hadithi said, “I have no comment on this subject, BUT THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT IS COMMITTED TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PROVISIONS OF THE CONSTITUTION AND THE EXERCISE OF ITS SOVEREIGN POWERS IN VARIOUS FILES, CONSTITUTIONALLY CONTESTED. ”

Al-Hadithi said that “the federal forces at this time have a constitutional and national responsibility to enforce security, maintain order, enforce law, protect citizens and their interests from all components in mixed areas, and maintain brotherly life among Iraqis.”

*************************************************************

KIRKUK: POLICE SECURITY CONDITIONS ARE STABLE AND THERE IS NO TRUTH TO WHAT SOME HAVE TOUTED

Baghdad scales news – Kirkuk Police Chief, Omar Aref, speech Saturday, the security situation in the city is calm and stable and there is no truth to what some have touted in the media.

Dean issued a press release faxed/Arif scales news/, which reassured the townspeople to stabilize the security situation and tempers, considering what is promoted in some media “wrong and has no basis in reality.”

He added that “after touring revival of Kirkuk by markets; and say that security conditions are stable, safe and all citizens of Kirkuk are safe,” adding that “it is doubtful that him getting around Kirkuk to watch life safe and natural spread of the security forces and their contribution to providing Requirements for stability.

And they were pieces of the Iraqi army and the rapid reaction forces and the popular crowd, began the first movement since Friday night, in the areas surrounding the city of Kirkuk and other disputed areas between the Centre and the Kurdistan region, while two troops withdrew from several areas of agreement with the troops.

Articles End

Their words not mine…..No Rumors, No Hype, Just the FACTS!

Auf Wiedersehen

Much love to ya all,

Mnt Goat
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PostSubject: Goat   Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:20 pm

In other words, there will be no RV in the foreseeable future.  Forget 2017 and 2018, to start.
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