The White House goes back to the traditional American options in the Middle East
March 21, 2017
US President Donald Trump took office and geopolitics in the Middle East, North Africa and the Horn of Africa are boiling with changes that Trump sees as the time to put out their fire, which has taken a sharp sectarian polarization flavor.
If the observer wishes to describe the region since the accession of former US President Barack Obama in 2009, he could summarize it: the spread of terrorism and the breadth of disagreement over its definition and the emergence of the so-called "Arab Spring" and the collapse of many Arab regimes and the prevalence of sectarian polarization and its expansion and the escape of micro components of the region The growing Iranian-Turkish influence in the Arab arena, the continuous collapse of oil prices and the decline of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict from the facade of the scene behind small local details.
Do the trends of Donald Trump, controversial in all, mean that he will change these facts? It is hard to predict this during the first 100 days of his presidency, nearly half of which has passed, but the observer can record a series of changes that have taken place since the early days and are predicting changes in the landscape of the global geopolitical region.
Mubarak's acquittal After years of reprisal, the Egyptian Attorney General approved on March 13, 2017, the release of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, nearly two weeks after he was finally acquitted of charges of involvement in the killing of demonstrators in 2011.
The same Egyptian judiciary had punished Hosni Mubarak in June 2012 to life imprisonment after being convicted on charges related to the killing of 239 demonstrators. But the Court of Cassation objected.
What happened was not far from the corridors of politics. In order for the scene to appear balanced, Egyptian authorities released the prominent political activist Ahmed Maher, the founder of the April 6 opposition movement, before the release of Mubarak, who participated in the January 25 revolution from Tahrir Square. After serving three years in prison, but is required to carry out the penalty of supplementary surveillance for three years.
* A bloody reconciliation in the shadow of Bashar's survival: No opposition has settled the situation, neither the Kurds have achieved self-rule the size of independence, neither Bashar nor the Baath Party give up power. But the obvious fact is that Syria, which the world knows, has changed. It is estimated that some 9 million Syrians have emigrated and deserted, a number that can not be trusted with accuracy, while destruction, death and destruction have taken place in all parts of the country. The scene today, six years after the outbreak of public anger on 15 March 2011, that Turkey and the United States and its Arab allies no longer talk about the departure of Bashar Assad, even the Syrian opposition has declined to adhere to this demand as a solution to the articular conflict.
Syrian Kurdish journalist and journalist Aref Gabo spoke to the "Arabs", stressing that "the Trump administration will deal with the Syrian crisis differently from the Obama administration approach to it. The priority of the new US administration is to fight a militant organization and terrorist organizations and it is ready to deal with any offer even those who were not accepted by the previous administration, and is ready to send US soldiers to fight on the fronts, not just experts and trainers. "
Developments after Trump came to power
- Egypt rethinks Mubarak and releases him
- Syria is going to a settlement that imposes Assad's survival
- Erdogan's escalation against Europe may end the Brotherhood's dream in Turkey
- Libya, an international alliance with Hafar, and basic victories on the ground
- Yemen is nothing but more havoc, destruction and hunger in the face of the persistence of the Houthis
"The war in Syria will continue at a different pace," which means that "immediate peace" does not seem imminent amid the profound changes in the Syrian social fabric and the aspirations of the Syrian opposition, What a Syrian opposition leader told the "Arabs", refusing to be named.
Among the Syrian opposition is that the Da'ad organization has no future in Syria. However, the Front of Al-Nasra (Fatah al-Sham currently) has a different situation, which will constitute the future danger. Most of its elements and leaders are Syrians and it is a popular incubator and allies of other Islamic factions.
The international community with Hafer: Libya is the only example in the Arab Spring that witnessed direct US intervention. But the Western alliance today, along with the United States of America, puts its weight with Marshal Khalifa Hafer. He joined the alliance of Russia, which entered the end of 2016 on the line of alliances with Hafer and sent an aircraft carrier to Tobruk, allowing the Libyan army commander to hold videoconferences with the defense minister Russian Sergey Shweigo on the surface of the carrier.
Today, the West and the East, along with Hafer, explained the researcher and expert on the Middle East and North Africa, Hosny Obeidi, in a statement to the German channel Deutsche Welle. "There is a vacuum exploited by Russia and the inability of European countries to find common ground for work in Libya, , Which facilitated the Russian approach to the Libyan scene. "
* The Palestinian-Israeli conflict: Despite the worsening economic situation in Gaza, despite the many accusations of corruption and mismanagement directed to the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah, and despite Palestinian, Arab and international calls to heal the rift between them, the divergence between them seems to master the situation in the next stage. On the other hand, Israel has been declaring that it is with the two-state solution, but asks "who do we declare a two-state solution, and who are we negotiating with, if Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has no authority over Hamas?"
"I'm looking at a two-state solution, just as I see the one-state solution, and I support the path that is mutually acceptable," said Donald Trump, the president of the United States, in a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This was followed by an invitation to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to visit Washington.
Palestinian media journalist Adham talked to the "Arabs" about his vision of changes and their impact on the Palestinian scene, noting that "it will not cast a lot of shadow on the internal Palestinian situation, the scene of Hamas control of the Gaza Strip will continue in exchange for the control of the Palestinian Authority emanating from the PLO on the West Bank The second is that there is a semi-international point of view that calls for taming Hamas and politicizing it and not ending its rule in Gaza. "
* From the nationalists to the Houthis: The Yemeni war, which emerged from the Arab Spring, continued as famine swept the poor country in a way that knocks a global threat. "The Gulf states will not allow a Houthi state because they see such a state backed by Iran as a threat to their national security, but the Houthis may enjoy privileges within their federal territory in the far north of Yemen," said one Yemeni expert. "He said.
In the corridors of American politics today, it may be that the return of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh to the front of the scene may restore Yemen's title of "happy", but this view is not supported by Yemen, Saleh who fought the Huthis with them, and is expected to turn against them again, Has taken refuge in Saudi Arabia after being overturned as a rival, so Trump is unlikely to venture back to the scene, especially as there is an armed Yemeni army fighting the forces of Ali Abdullah Saleh, an air-powered modern Gulf arsenal.
"Yemen is moving into a federal, pluralistic federal state with no power to govern an individual, be it a military family or a priestly Imam," says Yemeni journalist and journalist Ali al-Makhlafi. Salaliya (Houthi tribe), because the pressure papers of these two projects are military excellence. And the general military scene on the ground is their defeat, even slowly, and also because most Yemeni political parties left and center and the right and most independents support the establishment of a federal state for all Yemenis of different spectrum, not printed in one color.
In the early days of President Trump, the American air strike carried out an air strike on targets in Yemen. Before the raid President Trump had appeared on Fox News, asserting that "Iran has taken control of the scene in Yemen," but the results of the raid do not reveal a positive American perception of the situation The end of the bleeding, devastation and hunger in Yemen.
Based on these countries, Trump builds the foundations of his foreign policy and the developments in the coming phase will be reflected on the position of the United States, which fell to the lowest level in the last year of his successor, Barack Obama, as reflected on the status of the region and the roles of Iran, Turkey and Russia, which increased in years In light of the collapse and deterioration of the former US administration in the region.LINK