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Iraqi Dinar Reset
Iraqi Dinar Reset
Written by Joseph Cafariello
Posted July 24, 2013 at 1:38PM
There is a growing division among investors over the fate of Iraq’s currency, the dinar. While some expect the IQD’s redenomination to lift the dinar’s value dramatically higher, others say it will have no effect on the money’s value at all.
Iraqi politicians are equally at odds with one another, with some strongly for and others strongly against the plan. But isn’t redenomination supposed to be good for the nation’s currency? Why are they stalling?
Opposing Views in Government
The plan to redenominate the dinar by dropping 3 zeros off its notes has been anticipated since the Iraqi government first announced it back in 2010. The reason for the redenomination is to make transactions and accounting easier for the government, banks, and the general populace. As Shayya, an MP for the State of Law Coalition, explained to the Middle Eastern newspaper Al-Monitor:
Yet some in the Iraqi government are reluctant to move ahead with the change, upsetting a number of redenomination advocates, including MP Nahida Daini, who lamented, “The Council of Ministers asked to delay the process for fear of money laundering operations.” Daini believes such fears are baseless, reassuring that “there are regulators in Iraq who can follow up and ensure the integrity of the project.”
Those opposed to redenomination, though, are adamant that the Iraqi government is simply not yet ready for such a monumental task. Mudher Mohammad Saleh, former deputy governor of the Central Bank of Iraq, stessed to Al-Monitor that the deletion of zeros “does not only involve changing the design of the currency; it implies changing the economic system in the country in general.” He warned that “the decision to implement the deletion of zeros next year is very dangerous and risky” and “must be done at the appropriate time.”
In the meantime, ruling officials would rather see the Iraqi government focus on other ways of stabilizing its currency and economy. As Magda al-Tamimi, member of the parliamentary Finance Committee, described it, “Iraq is not ready to control the possible currency fraud that may result from the deletion of zeros. The Finance Committee is now working toward controlling the Iraqi currency auction, which is witnessing a significant fluctuation in the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar.”
Through these daily currency auctions, the Central Bank of Iraq issues U.S. dollars only to registered banks, importers, and other firms who need USD for conducting international transactions. By thus restricting the amount of USD circulating in Iraq, the CBI manages to control the value of the IQD, holding it at a steady rate.
Why? Because maintaining a cheap IQD means that every U.S. dollar of oil revenue the country brings in would be worth more dinars, allowing the country to print more of its own money, which would then allow it to pay for more reconstruction, hire more unemployed, and stimulate its economy. Almost every other nation in the world is trying to keep its currency weak for the same reasons.
Even as Tamimi confirms, “Development is the gateway to strengthening the currency. Thus, raising the value of the dinar is more important than the deletion of zeros.”
Can Redenomination Include Higher Valuation?
But Tamimi’s comment brings up a very interesting point. While many investors in the Iraqi dinar believe its redenomination (chopping off 3 zeros) will be accompanied by a revaluation (a sudden increase in the value of the new Iraqi money), Tamimi’s statement shows the two events do not happen together. They are two separate concepts that do not coincide.
In stating that “raising the value of the dinar” (through CBI-controlled daily auctions) is “more important than the deletion of zeros,” she implies that the deletion of zeros would not strengthen the dinar. Tamimi wants to see a strong dinar, but she sees exchange rate controls as accomplishing that more than the deletion of zeros would.
Think, too, of the implications of Iraq simply declaring its new money as being more valuable overnight. Currently, it takes about 1,164 IQD to buy 1 U.S. dollar. When the Iraqi government deletes 3 zeros, it would take 1.164 of the new money to buy 1 U.S. dollar.
Yet if the Iraqi government takes the additional step of increasing the value of the new money – let’s say by doubling it – then that same 1.164 of new money would buy 2 U.S. dollars. This would mean that with one stroke of the pen, the nation of Iraq would be worth twice as much in USD as before, overnight.
However, the amount of assets the country owns would still be the same the day after the revaluation as it was the day before. So where would that additional value come from? Is there suddenly twice as much oil in Iraq’s stockpile? No. Is there suddenly twice as much gold in Iraq’s vaults? No.
Other nations would protest. In order for the government to declare its money to be suddenly worth twice as much in USD as before, it would have to provide assets to account for that extra wealth in USD – not underground reserves, but actual exchangeable assets.
A nation’s currency is not a representation of its wealth. A nation’s currency is simply a representation of its assets. Its assets are the true indication of a nation’s wealth. If a nation’s assets have not changed, its wealth will not change either, regardless of any changes it makes to its money.
Even as 1,000 old money is worth 1 new money, they will still be worth the same in USD because the entire country of Iraq will still be worth the same in USD on the day of the conversion as it was the day before.
Investing in Iraq’s Future
Iraq will some day – and not far into the future either – mount one of the greatest comebacks since Japan and Germany after the second world war. Iraq is destined to become the world’s second largest oil exporter, and it will be rich.
It makes sense, then, to invest in the country early on, while it is still under development. But there are better ways of doing it than buying a fixed IQD that does not trade freely.
Iraq has an active stock market, the Iraqi Stock Exchange (ISX), which currently lists more than 100 companies including industrials, banks, insurers, hotels, and telecoms – all sectors which will undoubtedly flourish as the nation develops.
It may be complicated for a foreigner to invest in the ISX. However, many companies listed in Iraq are listed in other countries as well where it may be easier for you to trade.
The IQD, however, is a different story. The Iraqi government simply cannot afford to let its currency trade freely on an open market at the whim of supply and demand forces. If it were allowed to trade freely, it would probably strengthen to a certain extent, as graphs show. But this would lead to deflation, make money too expensive for businesses to get their hands on, and it would ultimately stop the economy’s gears from turning.
A strong IQD would shut Iraq down like the 2008 credit crisis nearly shut American down. And just as the U.S. central bank has been doing all it can to keep interest rates down and prevent the USD from strengthening too much, so too will the CBI continue to do what it can to keep the IQD down.
Since redenomination is not the same as revaluation, investors would do best to find other ways of benefiting from Iraq’s future rise, since they won’t find it in the dinar – no matter how many or how few zeros it has.
http://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/iraqi-dinar-reset/4511
The Redenomination Battle
Written by Joseph Cafariello
Posted July 24, 2013 at 1:38PM
There is a growing division among investors over the fate of Iraq’s currency, the dinar. While some expect the IQD’s redenomination to lift the dinar’s value dramatically higher, others say it will have no effect on the money’s value at all.
Iraqi politicians are equally at odds with one another, with some strongly for and others strongly against the plan. But isn’t redenomination supposed to be good for the nation’s currency? Why are they stalling?
Opposing Views in Government
The plan to redenominate the dinar by dropping 3 zeros off its notes has been anticipated since the Iraqi government first announced it back in 2010. The reason for the redenomination is to make transactions and accounting easier for the government, banks, and the general populace. As Shayya, an MP for the State of Law Coalition, explained to the Middle Eastern newspaper Al-Monitor:
Indeed, now that the UN has removed Chapter 7 restrictions from the nation, Iraq is fully open for business again and will see ever increasing trade over the coming years. A new currency with fewer zeros will make things so much easier.“The Iraqi currency is weak, and the money supply has amounted to multi-trillions because of the existence of these useless zeros. The country will witness a significant increase in oil revenues, financial earnings and high budgets. Thus, we need to print new banknotes, as estimated by the Central Bank.”
Yet some in the Iraqi government are reluctant to move ahead with the change, upsetting a number of redenomination advocates, including MP Nahida Daini, who lamented, “The Council of Ministers asked to delay the process for fear of money laundering operations.” Daini believes such fears are baseless, reassuring that “there are regulators in Iraq who can follow up and ensure the integrity of the project.”
Those opposed to redenomination, though, are adamant that the Iraqi government is simply not yet ready for such a monumental task. Mudher Mohammad Saleh, former deputy governor of the Central Bank of Iraq, stessed to Al-Monitor that the deletion of zeros “does not only involve changing the design of the currency; it implies changing the economic system in the country in general.” He warned that “the decision to implement the deletion of zeros next year is very dangerous and risky” and “must be done at the appropriate time.”
In the meantime, ruling officials would rather see the Iraqi government focus on other ways of stabilizing its currency and economy. As Magda al-Tamimi, member of the parliamentary Finance Committee, described it, “Iraq is not ready to control the possible currency fraud that may result from the deletion of zeros. The Finance Committee is now working toward controlling the Iraqi currency auction, which is witnessing a significant fluctuation in the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar.”
Through these daily currency auctions, the Central Bank of Iraq issues U.S. dollars only to registered banks, importers, and other firms who need USD for conducting international transactions. By thus restricting the amount of USD circulating in Iraq, the CBI manages to control the value of the IQD, holding it at a steady rate.
Source: XE.com
Click to enlarge
By deliberately controlling the IQD:USD exchange rate, the Iraqi central bank ensures the IQD remains weak, as can be evidenced on the chart above. Every time the dinar starts to strengthen (shown by descending plotlines), the CBI manages to bring it right back to its desired exchange rate.Click to enlarge
Why? Because maintaining a cheap IQD means that every U.S. dollar of oil revenue the country brings in would be worth more dinars, allowing the country to print more of its own money, which would then allow it to pay for more reconstruction, hire more unemployed, and stimulate its economy. Almost every other nation in the world is trying to keep its currency weak for the same reasons.
Even as Tamimi confirms, “Development is the gateway to strengthening the currency. Thus, raising the value of the dinar is more important than the deletion of zeros.”
Can Redenomination Include Higher Valuation?
But Tamimi’s comment brings up a very interesting point. While many investors in the Iraqi dinar believe its redenomination (chopping off 3 zeros) will be accompanied by a revaluation (a sudden increase in the value of the new Iraqi money), Tamimi’s statement shows the two events do not happen together. They are two separate concepts that do not coincide.
In stating that “raising the value of the dinar” (through CBI-controlled daily auctions) is “more important than the deletion of zeros,” she implies that the deletion of zeros would not strengthen the dinar. Tamimi wants to see a strong dinar, but she sees exchange rate controls as accomplishing that more than the deletion of zeros would.
Think, too, of the implications of Iraq simply declaring its new money as being more valuable overnight. Currently, it takes about 1,164 IQD to buy 1 U.S. dollar. When the Iraqi government deletes 3 zeros, it would take 1.164 of the new money to buy 1 U.S. dollar.
Yet if the Iraqi government takes the additional step of increasing the value of the new money – let’s say by doubling it – then that same 1.164 of new money would buy 2 U.S. dollars. This would mean that with one stroke of the pen, the nation of Iraq would be worth twice as much in USD as before, overnight.
However, the amount of assets the country owns would still be the same the day after the revaluation as it was the day before. So where would that additional value come from? Is there suddenly twice as much oil in Iraq’s stockpile? No. Is there suddenly twice as much gold in Iraq’s vaults? No.
Other nations would protest. In order for the government to declare its money to be suddenly worth twice as much in USD as before, it would have to provide assets to account for that extra wealth in USD – not underground reserves, but actual exchangeable assets.
A nation’s currency is not a representation of its wealth. A nation’s currency is simply a representation of its assets. Its assets are the true indication of a nation’s wealth. If a nation’s assets have not changed, its wealth will not change either, regardless of any changes it makes to its money.
Even as 1,000 old money is worth 1 new money, they will still be worth the same in USD because the entire country of Iraq will still be worth the same in USD on the day of the conversion as it was the day before.
Investing in Iraq’s Future
Iraq will some day – and not far into the future either – mount one of the greatest comebacks since Japan and Germany after the second world war. Iraq is destined to become the world’s second largest oil exporter, and it will be rich.
It makes sense, then, to invest in the country early on, while it is still under development. But there are better ways of doing it than buying a fixed IQD that does not trade freely.
Iraq has an active stock market, the Iraqi Stock Exchange (ISX), which currently lists more than 100 companies including industrials, banks, insurers, hotels, and telecoms – all sectors which will undoubtedly flourish as the nation develops.
It may be complicated for a foreigner to invest in the ISX. However, many companies listed in Iraq are listed in other countries as well where it may be easier for you to trade.
The IQD, however, is a different story. The Iraqi government simply cannot afford to let its currency trade freely on an open market at the whim of supply and demand forces. If it were allowed to trade freely, it would probably strengthen to a certain extent, as graphs show. But this would lead to deflation, make money too expensive for businesses to get their hands on, and it would ultimately stop the economy’s gears from turning.
A strong IQD would shut Iraq down like the 2008 credit crisis nearly shut American down. And just as the U.S. central bank has been doing all it can to keep interest rates down and prevent the USD from strengthening too much, so too will the CBI continue to do what it can to keep the IQD down.
Since redenomination is not the same as revaluation, investors would do best to find other ways of benefiting from Iraq’s future rise, since they won’t find it in the dinar – no matter how many or how few zeros it has.
http://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/iraqi-dinar-reset/4511
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RamblerNash- GURU HUNTER
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Re: Iraqi Dinar Reset
Good article, well reasoned and fair.
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Trust but Verify --- R Reagan
"Rejoice always, pray without ceasing, in everything give thanks; for this is the will of God in Christ Jesus for you."1 Thessalonians 5:14–18
Kevind53- Super Moderator
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Re: Iraqi Dinar Reset
Generally the article is fine and on target. I would quibble however on the statement that
Also the assets that back a pegged currency are just the reserves of the central bank, not the assets of the country in general. That seemed to be a bit fuzzy in the article.
But again overall he is exactly correct that the stroke of a pen can not raise the value of the money supply, thus the RV is a myth.
That implies (to me anyway) that the IQD is somehow floating and the CBI is engaged in some sort of manipulation to prevent the IQD from strengthing. This is just not the case. The IQD is a PEGGED currency. That means that the central bank comprises essentially the entire market for the IQD and the price they set is the price and the CBI doesn't change it very often. The auctions are always for the current fixed rate (i.e. the word auction is a bit misleading here). The CBI is not altering the rate day by day to react to some global trading. I have no idea where the charts you see on xe.com or oanda.com come from. Maybe there is some outside trading going on. But even if so, those rate fluctuation would be due to buyers and sellers outside of Iraq, not the CBI. The xe chart shows what would normally be volume on the bottom, but its not labeled. In any case the vast majority (I'd guess nearly 100%) of IQD/USD exchanges are oil dollars for IQD to the MOF and IQD to dollars for imports and all that occurs inside Iraq and at the CBI's fixed rate.By deliberately controlling the IQD:USD exchange rate, the Iraqi central bank ensures the IQD remains weak, as can be evidenced on the chart above. Every time the dinar starts to strengthen (shown by descending plotlines), the CBI manages to bring it right back to its desired exchange rate.
Also the assets that back a pegged currency are just the reserves of the central bank, not the assets of the country in general. That seemed to be a bit fuzzy in the article.
But again overall he is exactly correct that the stroke of a pen can not raise the value of the money supply, thus the RV is a myth.
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"Now my own suspicion is that the Universe is not only queerer than we suppose, but queerer than we can suppose." J.B.S. Haldane 1927
jrg- Forum Fanatic
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Re: Iraqi Dinar Reset
Yes, it is "pegged", but that does not mean it is "locked" to the USD. Rather, it means that the Central Bank uses various techniques to maintain the dinar at a fixed value. One of those techniques is the buying and selling of currency. It's not so much the selling price, but controlling the rate by controlling the supply. The government can say 1176, or 1180, but the law of supply and demand will always hold sway, so they need to regulate the supply.
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Trust but Verify --- R Reagan
"Rejoice always, pray without ceasing, in everything give thanks; for this is the will of God in Christ Jesus for you."1 Thessalonians 5:14–18
Kevind53- Super Moderator
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Re: Iraqi Dinar Reset
I'm not sure what you mean. The CBI has a fixed (i.e. rarely changing) rate pegging the IQD to the USD. That is the rate the CBI uses when selling USD to downstream banks or exchangers (the auctions) or buying USD from the MOF (oil revenue). Those two directions of exchange use a slight different rate so the CBI makes a tiny profit.
The CBI would like the rate downstream banks use for their customers to be only 2-3% higher then the CBI rate. When the auctions were limited in volume (i.e. only for imports) that made the USD rise in value due to demand so it was 8-10% higher. In 2014 (I think) the CBI relaxed the restrictions used for participating in the auctions to raise the USD supply to meet that demand and bring the rate down to be closer to the CBI rate. So the retail rate in Iraq indeed varies, but the CBI rate does not. Which is perhaps what you are describing.
The CBI would like the rate downstream banks use for their customers to be only 2-3% higher then the CBI rate. When the auctions were limited in volume (i.e. only for imports) that made the USD rise in value due to demand so it was 8-10% higher. In 2014 (I think) the CBI relaxed the restrictions used for participating in the auctions to raise the USD supply to meet that demand and bring the rate down to be closer to the CBI rate. So the retail rate in Iraq indeed varies, but the CBI rate does not. Which is perhaps what you are describing.
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"Now my own suspicion is that the Universe is not only queerer than we suppose, but queerer than we can suppose." J.B.S. Haldane 1927
jrg- Forum Fanatic
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Re: Iraqi Dinar Reset
Wondering how many dinar holders, or lack of them, exchanged on April 20, 2016? In case you are wondering, the dinar spiked to .08 from .0008 on this date. Hope some of you were at the bank when it happened? Best of luck to ones who exchanged on April 20, 2016, guess most of you missed the spike. Maybe next time. If there is a next time.
mightyoak- Forum Fanatic
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Re: Iraqi Dinar Reset
What I am saying, and what the author was saying is they maintain that peg through the auctions. It's not like you can just say the dinar is worth X and it will just stay there. You have to use economic tools to maintain that "peg," and a major one is controlling the flow of the currency in the marketplace.
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Trust but Verify --- R Reagan
"Rejoice always, pray without ceasing, in everything give thanks; for this is the will of God in Christ Jesus for you."1 Thessalonians 5:14–18
Kevind53- Super Moderator
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Re: Iraqi Dinar Reset
mightyoak wrote:Wondering how many dinar holders, or lack of them, exchanged on April 20, 2016? In case you are wondering, the dinar spiked to .08 from .0008 on this date. Hope some of you were at the bank when it happened? Best of luck to ones who exchanged on April 20, 2016, guess most of you missed the spike. Maybe next time. If there is a next time.
For a few microseconds, unless you had an electronic trade set up to happen automatically, you had no chance. I'm not convinced it actually ever happened in real life at all.
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Trust but Verify --- R Reagan
"Rejoice always, pray without ceasing, in everything give thanks; for this is the will of God in Christ Jesus for you."1 Thessalonians 5:14–18
Kevind53- Super Moderator
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Re: Iraqi Dinar Reset
Nonsense. Who would pay 8 cents per dinar when the CBI is selling them 100th of that? This is just anomalies in how currency sites show the rate for currencies which there is no significant trade. No one cashed in at this rate as no banks offer IQD and certainly not at 100 100 times the rate the CBI is offering.mightyoak wrote:Wondering how many dinar holders, or lack of them, exchanged on April 20, 2016? In case you are wondering, the dinar spiked to .08 from .0008 on this date. Hope some of you were at the bank when it happened? Best of luck to ones who exchanged on April 20, 2016, guess most of you missed the spike. Maybe next time. If there is a next time.
*****************
"Now my own suspicion is that the Universe is not only queerer than we suppose, but queerer than we can suppose." J.B.S. Haldane 1927
jrg- Forum Fanatic
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Re: Iraqi Dinar Reset
I think we're in sync here. The CBI's rate is fixed, that is what they offer when selling or buying dollars. They don't do anything to maintain it, as THEY offer it. That isn't changed by the auctions or anything other than the CBI changing their mind and setting a new rate.Kevind53 wrote:What I am saying, and what the author was saying is they maintain that peg through the auctions. It's not like you can just say the dinar is worth X and it will just stay there. You have to use economic tools to maintain that "peg," and a major one is controlling the flow of the currency in the marketplace.
For that rate to be reflected in what downstream banks get for dollars those banks sell, there have to be enough dollars available such that they do not become scarce and hence fetch a higher price. So the auctions have to be open enough to meet this demand. The reverse will never happen. i.e. Banks will never sell dollars for less than they buy them from the CBI no matter how many dollars are available in the auctions.
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"Now my own suspicion is that the Universe is not only queerer than we suppose, but queerer than we can suppose." J.B.S. Haldane 1927
jrg- Forum Fanatic
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Re: Iraqi Dinar Reset
All I reported was the IQDUSD chart on yahoo finance. Look it up. With all the stuff that has been put out over the years, this would not surprise me that the fix was in. You must know more about this than anyone. Just giving the facts that I saw. You can check it out or just bash the report. Nothing would surprise me about any thing I have read over the many years as a holder of the ghost money.
mightyoak- Forum Fanatic
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Re: Iraqi Dinar Reset
mightyoak wrote:All I reported was the IQDUSD chart on yahoo finance. Look it up. With all the stuff that has been put out over the years, this would not surprise me that the fix was in. You must know more about this than anyone. Just giving the facts that I saw. You can check it out or just bash the report. Nothing would surprise me about any thing I have read over the many years as a holder of the ghost money.
I have seen such things before, I suspect that it is just an anomaly of some sort, especially since as far as I know the IQD is not actively traded on any FX exchange.
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Trust but Verify --- R Reagan
"Rejoice always, pray without ceasing, in everything give thanks; for this is the will of God in Christ Jesus for you."1 Thessalonians 5:14–18
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Dinar Daily :: DINAR/IRAQ -- NEWS -- GURUS and DISCUSSIONS :: IRAQ and DINAR -- ARTICLE BASED INFORMATION and DISCUSSIONS
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