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 13 Years Ago In Dinarland: Anyone speculating on the new Iraqi Dinar (currency)?

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PostSubject: 13 Years Ago In Dinarland: Anyone speculating on the new Iraqi Dinar (currency)?   Sat Mar 26, 2016 8:57 pm

Anyone speculating on the new Iraqi Dinar (currency)?



  • mpjohnst
  • Senior Member



posted: Jan. 27, 2004 @ 10:30a

First off, due to the subject matter I'd like to put a couple disclaimers ont his thread:
-Please don't rate this thread +/- based on your views on the war, lets try to keep personal opinions out of it
-Please respond based on your honest and realistic expectations, backed up with reasoning
-Lets try to keep this civilized

Anyone out there speculating on the new Iraqi Dinar that was released Oct. 15th? I saw an interesting article at MSNBC comparing it to the massive amounts of money made during the Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in the early 1990s. However, there seems to be more hesitation due the the uncertain outcome of the whole US occupation:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4000891

Here is the Coalition Provisional Authority's site on the new currency:
http://www.cpa-iraq.org/budget/IraqCurrencyExchange.html

WHAT I HAVE BEEN ABLE TO FIND SO FAR:
- The on the ground exchange rate is about 1200:1
- It has been as high as 2000:1 - 1700:1
- I’ve seen it sold on eBay for anywhere from 600:1 to 1000:1
- The exchange rate listed on Yahoo!Finance says 700:1
- There is no official exchange rate listed on the US Treasury site

WHAT I HAVEN'T BEEN ABLE TO FIND OUT SO FAR:
- Can you exchange the currency in a US bank (or when you will be able to)?
- Is it legal to own Dinars at this point, as it doesn't appear to be traded freely?

I've haven't done this or am even seriously considering it yet as I'm usually pretty conservative with my money. However, I am curious if anyone else has experience and can enlighten us? If so:

What exchange rate did you get in at?
How quickly do you expect things to settle down in Iraq?
What exit target have you set for yourself (realistically, not wishful thinking)?
How do you think the coming election will factor in?

For the naysayers who will reply to this thread, please include:

Why you think the currency will devalue further (please offer real reasons, not just the US sucks, blah, blah, blah…)?
Do you think the currency will even survive?
How do you think the coming election will factor in?

I have a feeling this will turn into a do-you-think-the-occupation-will-ultimately-be-successful thread, however I think it will be interesting as long as we keep it related around a potential investment opportunity.

As a side note, I have a friend who is believes deeply in what the US is doing in Iraq and ultimately expects them to succeed (he is a libertarian). He catches A LOT of crap from his many liberal friends. I think I’m going to tell him to buy $1000US worth of Iraq Dinars. Keep $900 for him self and give $10 worth to each of his friends who are very vocal against his beliefs. Put your money where your mouth is! In 10 years you will either be the coolest friend EVER who gave them each a $1000 or the biggest butt of their jokes as they watched it wither down to nothing



  • Alcibiades
  • Senior Member - 10K
       



posted: Jan. 27, 2004 @ 10:35a

Anyone know what Soros thinks ? Sometimes he is right(Britain), sometimes severely wrong(Russia), but correct enough of the time to be a billionaire.



  • mpjohnst
  • Senior Member



posted: Jan. 27, 2004 @ 12:43p

I am curious why some have rated this thread negative when no one is posting...?

Anyway, for those curious, here is a link to google news that has a whole bunch of articles on the topic.
http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&edition=us&q=iraqi+dinar&btnG=Search+News

I guess the hardest part for those interested in this would be to find a source(s) above 1000:1 to be worth while. A second check on eBay and I can't seem to find any being sold for less than 850:1 or so. That would be way too much of a gamble... Possibly those with friends/family serving in the region can get it at the actual exchange rate?



  • grimani
  • Senior Member



posted: Jan. 27, 2004 @ 10:30p

Coalition Provisional Authority

Will it be possible to exchange currency outside of Iraq?

No. The only official currency exchange locations will be located within Iraq.



  • Peekaboo
  • Ancient Member
       



posted: Jan. 27, 2004 @ 10:47p

The problem with the Soldiers getting the currency is that they are only allowed to have $50 (us) at a time and can be subjected to punishment for having more. They are also cracking down seriously on prohibited exports via the mail (I will have to check to see if the currency is prohibited, but I think it is) so how would they be able to send it? I plan on getting some (not on a large scale though) from hubby but I don't know that this could be pulled off to satisfy a large demand??

You would have to maybe find someone working as a contractor there...but I'd bet that they have to sign an agreement not to export as well...



  • mpjohnst
  • Senior Member



posted: Jan. 28, 2004 @ 2:36a

grimani said:

<< Coalition Provisional Authority
Will it be possible to exchange currency outside of Iraq?
No. The only official currency exchange locations will be located within Iraq.
>>


I think that is only referring to the physical locations which you can change old Saddam and Swiss Dinars into the New Dinars. I don't think it deals with where you can exchange the New Dinars into other currencies...

They do list these FAQs though:
Will the new currency be convertible into other currencies?
Yes. The new currency will be convertible into other currencies at the market exchange rate that prevails at that time.
Can dollars also be exchanged for new Iraqi dinars? What will be the conversion rate for dollars?
Dollars will not be converted directly into new dinars during the official exchange. Following the exchange, dollars will be convertible directly into new dinars at the market exchange rate. New dinars will also be convertible into dollars as well as other currencies at the market exchange rate.
We are already past the last day of the exchange (Jan. 15th) so I don't see anything wrong with converting currencies now.



  • Alcibiades
  • Senior Member - 10K
       



posted: Jan. 28, 2004 @ 10:51a

You better have access to a liquid market for this stuff. One assasination of some Shiite cleric could make the dinar lose 30% overnite ?



  • mpjohnst
  • Senior Member



posted: Feb. 3, 2004 @ 6:10p

Seeing as how this thread has over 400 views I can only assume there is a least a remote interest in this so I'll update you on my progress... or lack there of.

I called my bank (Fleet) and they have no plans in the near future to buy or sell the new Iraqi currency even though they see no issues with the legality of it. It is more a demand thing so they say... So, it should be legal, just not being done on a large enough scale yet for banks to get involved.

I found an eBay seller who has recently sold a few 100,000 lots of Dinar for like $80. That works out to over a 1200:1 exchange rate, however, when I contacted him, he only offered me like 950:1 even though I would be going in for over 1,000,000 (just testing the waters). That really makes no sense as I linked to several auctions where he sold in excess of 1100:1, pointing out the exchange rate and asking for a better rate as this would be a higher dollar value. I don't know what he deal is but if anyone wants to press the issue further, PM me and I'll pass their info along. Basically, unless you have contacts in the region or someone can convince this seller to exceed 1200:1, it looks like a bad bet to use eBay.

As for the liquidity of the whole thing... *if* I bought, I wouldn't plan on dumping it quickly, it would be more of a long term thing. Now that Kerry is doing so much better in the polls, I'm wondering what his transition policy will be for Iraq and how it might effect the outcome.

Ultimately, a bet on this currency would be a bet on the long term (I'm talking 5-10 years) success of stabilizing the new government/region. I was against the war when we started, but now that we are there, I'd like to see things work out for the Iraqi people. Whether that will happen or not seems to be way, way up in the air...



  • aprince1
  • Addicted Member
       



posted: Feb. 4, 2004 @ 9:42a

Any update on this? Did you buy iraqi dinar? I am very much interested in buying this as a long term investment. May be worth 200 dollars or so (as this would be my first investment).

Keep us all updated if you find anything

Thanks
AP



  • mpjohnst
  • Senior Member



posted: Feb. 4, 2004 @ 1:28p

aprince1 said:

<< Any update on this? Did you buy iraqi dinar? I am very much interested in buying this as a long term investment. May be worth 200 dollars or so (as this would be my first investment). >>


Well, my latest update is in the above post. Nothing really to report.

As for you interest in this as your "first investment", I would highly discourage it. Do yourself a favor and put your $200 in an ING account or something (you can get $50 just for opening the account, make %25 on your money). I would not consider this an investment by any means, more of a gut feeling gamble. And if you want to gamble, you'd be better off going to the casinos...

I just thought it would be an interesting discussion and was curious if anyone else was trying their luck. I have no real experience with this yet, especially not enough to recommend others get in on it.



  • TheJollyGreenGiant
  • Senior Member - 10K



posted: Feb. 4, 2004 @ 1:36p

mpjohnst said:

<< Now that Kerry is doing so much better in the polls, I'm wondering what his transition policy will be for Iraq and how it might effect the outcome. >>



outcome won't be affected as there's nary a snowball's chance in you-know-where that there will be a "Kerry transition". that's akin to wondering when buying stock "should I buy this IBM stock or what would the impact be if the moon splashed into the Pacific tomorrow?"



  • aprince1
  • Addicted Member
       



posted: Feb. 4, 2004 @ 1:59p

mpjohnst said:

<<
As for you interest in this as your "first investment", I would highly discourage it. Do yourself a favor and put your $200 in an ING account or something (you can get $50 just for opening the account, make %25 on your money). I would not consider this an investment by any means, more of a gut feeling gamble. And if you want to gamble, you'd be better off going to the casinos...

I just thought it would be an interesting discussion and was curious if anyone else was trying their luck. I have no real experience with this yet, especially not enough to recommend others get in on it.
>>




Thanks for your advice. I have been following the finance forum from quite sometime. Obviously I have utilized the INGDirect bonus a long time back. But these days I am looking for some investment. I am trying to learn somethings in stock and in other different things like this one. I know I will burn somewhere but that's the part of the the game. I have already decided to max my investment in Roth IRA (still don't know if I should go with scottrade/vanguard/freetrade or something else though!).

I really appreciate your advice but at the same time 200 dollars is not going to hurt me at present. I think that the currency of Iraq will definately improve in few years once it is stable. Lagrely bcos it has got 2nd largest oil reserve in world. Also, its bound to improve when they have some sort of stable govt. which will come sooner or later. Also, US is going to play some game to make the govt. stable. After all now as US is nearly out of saudi arabia it has to get a "stable" base for oil somewhere else.

Okay, now start firing



  • ajf3
  • Ancient Member
     



posted: Feb. 23, 2004 @ 9:25p

Just revisiting this thread since it seems to have gone dormant... When this was being discussed, dinars could be had on eBay around 850:1... checking today seems like it's closer to 1000:1, but the dollar has declined also.

Seems like locals are buying them like crazy though...

http://paktribune.com/news/index.php?id=54505

So - has anyone made the leap?



  • burbz
  • Member
     



posted: May. 7, 2004 @ 6:47p

I just happened upon DayStar Trading, an outfit that specializes in dinar purchases. Huh.


  • Crazytree
  • Senior Member - 10K
       



posted: May. 7, 2004 @ 6:59p

I'm thinking about buying a vacation home in Fallujah... my real estate guy is an ex-Fedayeen and he said that it's a buyer's market right now.



  • burbz
  • Member
     



posted: May. 7, 2004 @ 7:06p

Oh brother, there's two more places for this. "Dinars for Less!" Wow.



  • Crazytree
  • Senior Member - 10K
       



posted: May. 7, 2004 @ 7:17p

The Iraqis don't even want the Dinar... why would I?



  • ZeroPercent
  • Member



posted: May. 7, 2004 @ 8:04p

Crazytree said: I'm thinking about buying a vacation home in Fallujah... my real estate guy is an ex-Fedayeen and he said that it's a buyer's market right now.

It might make sense to go with a timeshare program that allows you points toward a broad selection of properties. That way you'll have the flexibility to vacation in Boznia, Kandahar, or Fallujah. No sense in limiting yourself to the Sunni Triangle.

Back to the topic at hand though, I think the Iraqi Dinar is a great investment for those who were planning on investing at the horse track or in a Casino. In fact, I'd rank it as a clearly superior investment to a powerball ticket.



  • unknownshopper
  • Senior Member
    6K




posted: May. 7, 2004 @ 8:24p

Wasn't there a guy a few (several) years back who was marketing Argentine currency as colorful wallcovering? And before that there was somebody doing the same thing with the GDR's currency, although a bit more dreary.



  • vitaliyf
  • Senior Member



posted: May. 7, 2004 @ 9:43p

unknownshopper said: Wasn't there a guy a few (several) years back who was marketing Argentine currency as colorful wallcovering? And before that there was somebody doing the same thing with the GDR's currency, although a bit more dreary.

I still remember news footage of Yugoslavia with paper money flying on the street, from about 10 years ago when they issued new money at 1:1billion exchange rate. Brought whole new meaning "not worth the paper it is printed on".

Having grown up in Eastern Europe I can only hope that none of you will experience hyperinflation in their lifetime.



  • gleff
  • Senior Member




posted: May. 8, 2004 @ 9:50a

You can buy dinar and track the price at Daystartrading, as mentioned earlier.

I love the marketing on Dinarsforless site for buying dinars.

After decades of underinvestment, Iraq’s agriculture sector is poised to make the country once again the bread basket of the Middle East

In the President's radio address, President Bush reconfirmed the Adminstrations stance for a "Strong Dinar Policy". The new dinar will be used throughout Iraq, thereby unifying the economy and the country.

Currently a U.S. dollar buys about 555 dinar. But once you've bought them it isn't clear to me how liquid they are. Where (other than perhaps ebay) do you sell them?

Over time I'd certainly expect a more well developed market. Maybe there will be forward contracts contingent on major events. All you armchair international affairs watchers keep note...



  • SUCKISSTAPLES
  • FW Historian
       



posted: May. 8, 2004 @ 10:23a

anyone know what the RE market is like in non-wartorn parts of Iraq? Wonder what a house that used to sell for 50,000 dinar currently selles for??



  • SIGNHERE
  • Member



posted: May. 8, 2004 @ 10:54a

There's a huge difference between those 2 sites, 1 million for 1,250.00
@ the dinars for less site vs. 1,800 @ the Daystartrading site, any other sites found to get these from? I think if these are held long enough there could be a huge return, I strongly doubt that there
would be any change to the currency design again. A definite long term outlook needs to be looked at here, if they return to prewar levels @
.33 cents that $1,250.00 would turn in to $330,000 !!!!! Any one buy any of this yet, I think I'm going to go for it, even a small gain would double your money, better odds than a casino, I wonder how much space
1 million dinar will take up?






gleff said: You can buy dinar and track the price at Daystartrading, as mentioned earlier.

I love the marketing on Dinarsforless site for buying dinars.

After decades of underinvestment, Iraq’s agriculture sector is poised to make the country once again the bread basket of the Middle East

In the President's radio address, President Bush reconfirmed the Adminstrations stance for a "Strong Dinar Policy". The new dinar will be used throughout Iraq, thereby unifying the economy and the country.

Currently a U.S. dollar buys about 555 dinar. But once you've bought them it isn't clear to me how liquid they are. Where (other than perhaps ebay) do you sell them?

Over time I'd certainly expect a more well developed market. Maybe there will be forward contracts contingent on major events. All you armchair international affairs watchers keep note...



  • SUCKISSTAPLES
  • FW Historian
       



posted: May. 8, 2004 @ 11:00a

on ebay, a million dinar is $880 with free shipping.



  • jesrf
  • Senior Member
       



posted: May. 8, 2004 @ 11:03a

In the President's radio address, President Bush reconfirmed the Adminstrations stance for a "Strong Dinar Policy". The new dinar will be used throughout Iraq, thereby unifying the economy and the country.

Sadly, the President's Texas Drawl was widely mis-quoted here, what he actually said was that he advocated a "strong DINNER policy".




  • SIGNHERE
  • Member



posted: May. 8, 2004 @ 12:10p

SUCKISSTAPLES said: on ebay, a million dinar is $880 with free shipping.

I wonder where he gets it ?



  • Crazytree
  • Senior Member - 10K
       



posted: May. 8, 2004 @ 12:57p

good question... the selller is RPBLCNGUARD420. although his feedback is overwhelmingly good... some buyers complained this his sales policies are "oppressive".



  • ImNew
  • Senior Member
       



posted: May. 8, 2004 @ 3:23p

Crazytree said: good question... the selller is RPBLCNGUARD420. although his feedback is overwhelmingly good... some buyers complained this his sales policies are "oppressive".


heheh the seller is a pot head hehe



  • Crazytree
  • Senior Member - 10K
       



posted: May. 8, 2004 @ 3:54p

Buyer free_kurdistan(96) May-07-04 18:59 COMPLAINT: I got GASSED on shipping!



  • marabout
  • Senior Member - 1K
       



posted: May. 8, 2004 @ 5:12p

What the hell. I'm crazy enough. I'm going to look into it and see where on the ground in the u.s., europe, or japan that a citizen can exchange dinar for a real currency (dollar, yen, euro) and if such a place exists, I might be willing to risk a few hundred bucks on some potentially worthless scaprs of iraqi paper. Wish me luck.

One nightmare problem is if the new government, whatever that may be, decides it wants to redo the money again and that all of these notes must be exchanged by such and such a date and we can't pull it off and they become worthless. Maybe I can just buy an oil rig instead?

BTW, 1mil iraqi new dinar should cost only $679 according to today's exchange rate of $1=1472 dinars (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=USDIQD=X). Where one buys at that rate, I don't know. But it doesn't sound like it makes sense to pay $1250 or $1800 quoted on those two websites above, or even the $880 from eBay.


  • ananthar
  • Senior Member
       



posted: May. 8, 2004 @ 5:21p

SIGNHERE said: if they return to prewar levels @.33 cents that $1,250.00 would turn in to $330,000 !!!!!

Reality Check : The goal of central banks is to achieve stable currency values in the long run. It will ruin the Iraqi economy (by making all exports non-competetive) if the Iraqi central bank allows Iraqi Dinar to appreciate to pre-1990 levels. Any central bank has an absolute ability to keep their currency from appreciating by printing more of that currency and buying up all foreign currency (that is what China is doing). The hard part is keeping the currency from depreciating, so it is highly doubtful the Iraqi Dinar will appreciate once it has found its equilibrium value against other currencies. It is possible that the current securty problems in Iraq are making it hard for the Iraqi Dinar to reach its equilibrium exchange rate. But, if anything, the current artificial injection of huge amounts of $$$ by USA into the Iraqi enconmy is artifically pushing up the Iraq Dinar (by adding huge demand for conversion from $ to Dinar), and once the US aid is phased out after 5 years the Dinar is likely to fall as the surplus of foreign currency in Iraq disappears.



  • marabout
  • Senior Member - 1K
       



posted: May. 8, 2004 @ 5:40p

And if Iraq demands payment for its oil in Dinars? Would that change your analysis?



  • inda
  • Ancient Member
       



posted: May. 8, 2004 @ 5:43p

I heard that the new 10 dinar would feature that female soldier pointing and the 20 dinar would have a portrait of naked iraqi twister players.



  • unknownshopper
  • Senior Member
    6K




posted: May. 8, 2004 @ 5:49p

marabout said: And if Iraq demands payment for its oil in Dinars? Would that change your analysis?

No.

Once the US pulls out, Iraq will become the Yugoslavia of our decade.

The resulting states -- conventional wisdom says there will be three -- are as likely to demand dollars for their oil as any other oil exporter. If not more so.



  • marabout
  • Senior Member - 1K
       



posted: May. 8, 2004 @ 6:16p

You think Iraq will be on good enough terms with the u.s. to be willing to use our currency instead of their own? Weren't they seeking to use Euros just before the war (yet another reason we went to war with them, of course)? Who the hell wants to accept dollars these days? Heck, I don't even want dollars anymore!



  • unknownshopper
  • Senior Member
    6K




posted: May. 8, 2004 @ 6:23p

It's not a matter of liking or disliking the US.

Oil is priced in dollars. Although there has been speculation of OPEC changing to Euros, it looks like it will remain in dollars for the time being.

Edit: FWIW, I don't like the dollar any more than you do. But facts are facts.


  • SUCKISSTAPLES
  • FW Historian





posted: May. 8, 2004 @ 5:49p

marabout said: And if Iraq demands payment for its oil in Dinars? Would that change your analysis?

it looks like the money was ALREADY made by the speculators, some of who made400% in 2 weeks in recent months...
http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=49522
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4000891

As far as where to exchange the money, now or in the future, I think eBay is going to be the easiest and best source. Youre not going to get the Best Buy/sell prices, but its a hell of a lot easier than flying into Saddam Intl...



  • ananthar
  • Senior Member
       



posted: May. 8, 2004 @ 11:15p

SUCKISSTAPLES said:

Pre-1990 levels??? what are you talking about? The dinar was very strong till Jan 04...
http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?amt=1000000&from=IQD&to=USD&submit=Convert



That graph is simply wrong : Yahoo is simply plotting the "official" exchange rate of $3.3/Dinar under Saddam which hasn't changed since the 1990 Iraq war, but the black market exchange rate in Bagdad had dropped gradually over 10 years to around 2000 Dinars/$ just before the 2003 US invasion, and the new Dinar was introduced on a basis of 1:1 exchange with the Saddam Dinar in Jan 2004 and very briefly APPRECIATED to around 250 Dinars/$ before settling back to around 1400 Dinars/$ and has stayed roughly at that level ever since in the (now legal) market in Bagdad.

Any expectation of a return to the 1990 exchange rate of $3.3/Dinar is pure fantasy.

Don't get burnt by trying to speculate in Iraqi Dinar : read the articles refered to in SIS's post



  • chiacgomonroe
  • Member



posted: May. 16, 2004 @ 8:29p

OK, I have gone ahead and bought Iraqi Dinar. Like one of the previous posters pointed out, I have not invested what I cannot afford to lose, and my guess is that any large gain will be in the 5-10 year time frame.
I bought on eBay, in two transactions from 2 different sellers. With one, he only semt me half of the Dinars that I won in the auction - he says that he will send me the rest soon; I'll keep you posted. The other seller will have only gotten his money order in the last few days - I'll let you know if the Dinars come through.

-Chiagomonroe


Skipping 891 Messages...





  • stook2001
  • Senior Member
     



posted: Apr. 30, 2007 @ 11:22p

sameer555 said: hey guys do you think its a good idea to purchase dinars now??? maybe stupid question but im new to this. share your ideas plz??? THANKS

What is your time horizon and expected rate of return? Me... I can't even begin to answer either question, which is why this "investment" = gambling.

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PostSubject: Re: 13 Years Ago In Dinarland: Anyone speculating on the new Iraqi Dinar (currency)?   Sun Mar 19, 2017 12:11 am

Nothings changed .... 13 years later and the conversations are almost identical to that one

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