Is the Economy Just the Reason for the RV Delay? ” by Mnt Goat

Today’s News

Today is Friday October 9th and still no RV. 

So this week Iraq has given us golden nuggets of information. The finance committee has come right out and told us why the project to delete the zeros had been postponed. When will they then continue it?

We simply had to wait for the events to unfold that are required to bring the political stability, physical security  and the economic stability needed for this RV event to occur. Why would they bring back the currency when the reason they shut it down in the first place is still evident? Iraq must get to a state of stability or there will be no RV….get it?  But when will they reach the needed of stability?

Today I talk about what is happening in all three of these categories of stability and you be the judge and tell me if you see an RV on the very near horizon unless Abadi can get his reforms instituted.  We may be even closer to resolving many of these issues than we are told since we do not get all the complete news from Iraq. The RV just may happen much sooner than later, but regardless what we do know for sure there is still much work to be done. 

I know I have been sounding like a broken record for many months  but I see my efforts have helped many of your dinarians now to understand what is going on in Iraq. You too have learned to read the news from Iraq for yourselves. I congratulate many of you for making this effort. Kudos to you all!

Many however simply like the day by day drama and the anytime hype and this is your problem.This news letter is not for you so go get your hype somewhere else….lol….lol….

Having said all this then what should we be looking  from Iraq to indicate to us they are gaining the stability needed in these three areas of concern?   

1) POLITICAL STABILITY (getting rid of Maliki and the Iranian influence);

2) PHYSICAL SECURITY (getting rid of ISIS and DAASH);

3) ECONOMIC STABILITY (ending the corruption, returning the loss Iraq funds, the return of Dr Shabibi to the CBI and the diversification efforts in the Iraqi economy, price of oil on the rise).

So let me now review with you the current status of each of these three elements. 

We are witnessing the final demise of the Iranian influence and we see the outward admonishment of Maliki and the other former corrupt officials ( I have called Maliki goons) and the funds they have stolen. Much of these funds have been located, are now frozen and will soon be returned back to Iraq after a final verdict is rendered in Maliki trial. Maliki will no longer have any possibility for any political position in Iraq government in the future.

Nor will anyone convicted of crimes of corruption or against humanity. So this all adds up to the needed political security.  However I am still waiting to hear news of the Accountability and Justice law. Iraq has been very quite on the status of this recently. There is a major shake up coming soon to the judiciary.

In Anbar and Mosul we are witnessing the coalition forces against ISIS and DAASH making overwhelming progress and stockpile of weapons and ammo have been bombed and confiscated. Prisoners are being taken and ISIS will not be allowed to reoccupy the resolved areas once taken. The National Guard law is said to be in the process of being implemented even though we have not see the law “officially” passed in parliament. We have read months ago about the process of training Iraqi troops for these positions. Many of the former officers from the Hussein regiments have been released and are now filling the ranks thru the Amnesty program. So this is adding to the needed physical security. But Amnesty too is not “officially” passed in parliament. 

Just recently we have read multiple articles about the clean up of the CBI and the return of Dr Sahbib to once again take of more formal role as the governor. We also have seen the Investment law that was rejected once again last Tuesday due to two sections that needed to be updated regarding arbitration process. We are told now this law will be passed by the end of this month. We have seen the restructuring of the major banks and application of modern banking practices and electronics in order to conduct business with the rest of the world and inside Iraq. All these are indicators we expected to see as we move very close to having the needed economic stability needed. But we are not there yet.   

Most of the major reform laws we are looking for have had a second reading in parliament already and wait a final voting session, which more than likely will be by the end of October. We also wait for the National Reconciliation conference and we know they are planning for this event by the end of the year but most likey sooner than later. But they need to get Abadi’s reforms instituted first. Iraq will not have this conference until they feel comfortable that they can move forward aggressively in politics and their economy. Afterall what would be the purpose of holding this conference if the reconciliation issues are not complete.

We can see more pressure to get these reforms laws  passed as religious leaders, the demonstrating citizens, and now even the rest of the Arab community (GCC) are exerting pressure on parliament and all eyes are now on the government to conclude with this corruption and set Iraq on a straight and normalized path.

So what pops out today –more pressure to pass the needed changes in HCL that Kurdistan has been asking for resolution. I reviewed these changes with you in one of my past news letters. Do we need these changes for an RV? This is the million dollar question.

I know they need to make good on the HCL and put some of that oil money in the hands of the average citizen prior to any RV.  Iraq has been told this many times by the USA. One provision they can not escape.

Can they feel comfortable doing this financially with the budget deficit? Are they now financially capable of allocating oil royalties at this point in time? So can this part wait for the future, as long as the laws needed to support it are passed?

See article below as the answer may be there. Remember HCL technically does not have to go through parliament for a vote to become law, just that the GOI and Kurdistan must agree.

Article Begins

COMMISSION INTENDS TO PROPOSE THE OIL LAW ON OIL AND GAS LEGISLATION WITHOUT WAITING FOR THE GOVERNMENT      

BAGHDAD / JD / .. A member of the Commission on oil and energy parliamentary deputy Zaher al-Abadi, the determination of his committee's proposal oil and gas law and enacted in Parliament in the event of the failure of the government to send a bill to the House of Representatives.

Ebadi said the agency / JD /: "The oil and gas law is one of the important laws, which will eliminate a lot of outstanding problems regarding the oil especially between the federal and provincial Governments, "adding that" the government withdrew oil and gas law for the purpose of Parliament make amendments to it. " He added that "in the event of the failure of the government to send the amended version of the oil and gas law Vstljo the Commission on oil and energy parliamentary to propose a new law on oil and gas legislation in parliament without reference to the government," ./ ended

Article Ends

Next we see an article this week pop out explaining the stalling of the project to delete the zeros. Interesting article because it makes reference to the 2010 timeframe and not the 2012 timeframe, when we all read articles about Dr. Shabibi wanting to bring out the lower denoms and coins in Sept- Oct of that year.

This could mean nothing more than an RV was pending in the near future. Again this was 2012. So why are they talking about 2010 and why are they telling us the economy was not so good back then when the oil prices were over $100 a barrel and life was good. Even though there was corruption from Maliki’s administration the country observed a relative sense of stability. Soon after this period all hell broke loose. Even Dr Shabibi has told us this was a golden opportunity that was missed to complete the currency reform project.

I quote from the article – “draft deletion of zeros from the local currency stopped by the House of Representatives in 2010 due to legislative differences within the parliament,"

So what is their current reason? Could it still be the economy and was it ever the economy? Based on this conflicting news I must disregard this article since it does not make any sense.

Article Begins

PARLIAMENTARY FINANCE: DETERIORATING ECONOMIC CONDITIONS DISRUPTED THE DELETION OF ZEROS FROM CURRENCY      

Special - scales News
Ruled out the parliamentary finance committee member Abdul Qader Mohammed, on Wednesday, the application of a draft resolution to delete the zeros of the Iraqi currency during the coming period due to the deteriorating economic conditions experienced by the country, noting that he can not determine the time of application of the project unless stabilized the security and economic situation in Iraq.

 Said Mohammed's / scales News / "The project to delete the zeros of the Iraqi currency will help to use the currency are the biggest," noting that "the difficulty of the application of this project during these economic conditions experienced by Iraq."

He said the parliamentary finance committee member, said "money inflation in the Iraqi market with the economic downturn currently lead to the descent of the currency rate to hit the country's economy," adding, "it was postponing the process of deleting the zeros to settling the Iraqi currency put the Iraqi economy in a stable and good condition."

The "Committee for Economy and Investment parliamentary member Ahmed Salim Abdul Rahman said, earlier, that the deletion of zeros from the local currency is not appropriate at this time, especially in the big decline and deterioration in the economic conditions of the country."

It is worth mentioning that the "economic expert Abdul Hassan al-Shammari said, earlier, that the draft deletion of zeros from the local currency stopped by the House of Representatives in 2010 due to legislative differences within the parliament," noting that "print local currency Iraqi government cost $ 250 million annually ".

Article Ends

Then today also out pops this article below from Iraq, once again talking about the reasons for the down turn of the Iraqi economy, its causes and the as possible solutions. So what are problems and the solution(s) to the economic crisis?

We all should know these solutions by now. I have gone over them again and again with you as I have presented article talking about the Abadi reforms. Do you now see why he is instituting these reforms and why they are needed?

Let me list them once again for you as they talked about them in the article below.

Remember this is their words not mine. No hype, No rumor, just the FACTS. I am quoting from this article below
....

Problems with the Iraqi Economy:

1)    “economic deficit due to falling oil prices”
2)    “lack of state resources (over a trillion dollars in stolen funds -Who stole the $$?)
3)    “sagging economic structure”
4)    “prevalence of corruption” (money laundering, falsified contracts, ghost soldiers, etc)
5)    “inability for the state to fund development benefits and services, sustain health and social programs, including salaries of employees”. (the money needed to pay these programs is gone, stolen)

Solutions to the Economic Crisis in Iraq:

1)    “realistic treatments of the crisis” (make the necessary difficult changes)
2)    “control over the budget deficit”
3)    “adoption of groups of economic policies that would reduce public spending”
4)    “promote opportunities to find additional resources” (diversify Iraqi’s economy)
5)    “develop regulatory programs administratively and financially to eliminate the phenomenon of serious corruption in the economic institution”. (need reform laws)

Article Begins

IRAQI ECONOMY AND PROPOSALS OF TREATMENT      

http://www.alsabaah.iq/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=101790

8/10/2015 0:00
 BAGHDAD –
A morning plenty of propositions suggests many procedural processors at the suffering of the Iraqi economic landscape, which has become open to a lot of crises, including Maitalq economic deficit due to falling oil prices in global markets and the lack of state resources, and sagging economic structure and the prevalence of corruption, including the associated the weakness of the Iraqi economic system's ability to meet the development benefits and services and sustain health and social programs, including salaries of employees in various sectors of the state.

These propositions need a program, and to approved national depends realistic treatments of the crisis, starting with control over the budget deficit, and work on the adoption of groups of economic policies that would reduce public spending, and promote opportunities to find additional resources pride of national economies, and develop regulatory programs administratively and financially to eliminate the phenomenon of serious corruption in the economic institution.

The absence of a clear vision and strategic planning may Akunan of the most causes of the crisis industry, which have a set of data pertaining to disable any process to revitalize the economic system in the agricultural, commercial and banking sectors, as shares of the accumulation of major problems in these sectors disable any real deal to the crisis of the Iraqi economy and the adoption of proper work contexts that promote institutional building first, and reinforce citizens' confidence in the future of the economy and its ability to withstand the burden of social life and security problems

Secondly, as well as international agencies confidence to the banking business level to ensure a guaranteed financial relationships legally in banking markets, and in the presence of operational frameworks that accommodate all the changes that can occur here or there.

Addressing the problems of the Iraqi economy needs to have a economic environment is good, and to foster good practices for the recovery of this environment,  and in attracting scientific and research and encourage efficiencies and invest their energies in the economic sectors, and in the control of the banking system and the system of hard currency conversion for the protection of national wealth, as well as in the search for what can enhance the resources of the state starting from reconsider in the import programs, and to promote national export a lot of goods that can be organized according contexts economic agreements with countries that are involved Iraq in investment and import areas,  and the end of the organization of legal contexts to impose Alkmarki system and thus contributing to the provision of economic resources, and to secure the Iraqi product that should be encouraged Protection its markets and securing real opportunities for the
 marketing of Daath.

Article Ends

Now read the article below and connect the dots. Can you do this? 

Can you see how there is political resistance to Abadi’s changes within the reforms. In Iraq they are so used to operating the government with a high level of corruption that they simply so not want to let it go. The oil revenues too have flowed freely and, since no benefits rarely went to the average citizen (except spoiled food in food ration programs, constant overdue salaries and pension payments, etc) there were always plenty of spoils to go around. Now this is all going to stop and Abadi is attempting to make the GOI a responsible government.

Hell ! they haven’t even reconstructed many of the bombed out buildings from 2003 or have 24/7 electricity. So where in hell did all the money go over these past 12 years?

Having said all this – Do you understand the major shakeup going on now in Iraq. What will it lead to? Can Abadi survive?

How am I so certain Abadi’s reform program will be successful and I quote from the article below – “that "all of this will be under the US support, because America does not want in any way the return of al-Maliki wing, which has good relations with Iran in particular."

Article Begins

SHAMMARI: ABADI TAKE DIFFICULT DECISIONS AWAY FROM POLITICAL BLOCS TO WIN THE DEMONSTRATORS AND REFERENCE      

Shammari: Abadi take difficult decisions away from political blocs to win t
demonstrators and reference Political

Since 08/10/2015 14:41 pm (Baghdad time)

Special - scales news
The head of the political thinking of the Iraqi Center Ihsan al-Shammari, Thursday, that the Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi will be directed away from the political blocs to make decisions "difficult," noting that al-Abadi is trying to gain the trust of the demonstrators supreme religious authority.

Al-Shammari said L / scales News /, "The Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi Pat senses he remained alone did not have the political cover that or those political incubator in which they can support the path of reform or even the nature of his internal and external trends."

He added that "a meeting Abadi with Obame solo following the meetings of the General Assembly of the United Nations and talk too much before US President think it indicate beyond any doubt that al-Abadi will move away from political blocs because he has become convinced that these blocs will look for a replacement for that will be made possible that decisions Kacalh be difficult and corrupt political leaders and push away from the laws of the political blocs to win the demonstrators and reference. "

He pointed out that "all of this will be under the US support, because America does not want in any way the return of al-Maliki wing, which has good relations with Iran in particular."

It is worth noting that the Office spokesman Prime Minister Saad al-Hadithi detection, earlier, about having great difficulties in implementing the reforms launched by the Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, as he emphasized that al-Abadi continuously in the reform package. It ended 29 quarters e

Article Ends

Article Begins

GOVERNMENT UNABLE TO PAY THE SALARIES OF STATE EMPLOYEES      

http://www.alrayy.com/155034.htm

The governor of the Iraqi Central Bank on the Keywords that Iraq is facing great financial difficulties after the sharp decline of oil prices the world.

Keywords and he said in a press interview that despite the decline in oil prices, but the digital existing indicators for this moment the government does not come to its inability to pay the salaries of state employees.
He noted that the financial crisis which passes Iraq must be a great lesson for a review of fiscal policy in the first place, and the nature of government spending, tax policy, pointing out that marred much of the imbalance in the structure and organization, calling for real reforms in the financial and tax system structure, and structure the economy in general.

He pointed out that spending in past years did not hurt to expand the productive base of the country, and the development of economic activities in order to achieve Iraq's resources on the one hand and also run unemployment is widely widening the productive base.

He added that the government spending in the previous period of his wisdom and political factors rather than economic factors, indicating that discussions about adding allocations and expenditures are always going on in the framework of political gain.

He said natural in all countries of the world that when financial crises State resort to other sources to cover a temporary shortfall in their budgets until survive the crisis, pointing out that Iraq has a chance in that low-resource today may rise in the coming period

Article Ends

[Update on Physical Stability: Fighting ISIS]

This article below came out on Wednesday 10/7 and was sweet words to my ears…PHYSICAL SECURITY!

I quote from the article - :” announced the reconstruction of areas affected by terrorism fund, Wednesday, that the World Bank loan amounting to $ 350 million will be launched during the month”. So what does this mean? This means they intend to be concluded with ISIS and begin reconstruction of the areas beginning in October. Yes that is this month of October in 2015.


Article Begins

KARBOULI CONFIRMS THAT THE END OF THE DAY WE WILL ANNOUNCE THE LIBERATION OF ANBAR      

Sky Press
10/07/15    17:15

MP Mohammad al-Karbouli, the Anbar Wednesday, the end of the day we will announce the liberation of Anbar from dance bands criminal, daash all politicians to reunite and forget the past and to build the province and unite.

Karbouli said to 'Sky Press', ' the thought aldaasha exists in the hearts and mind of the killers and criminals and there is a political conflict, if there are tribes and engaged are few, they should check themselves and here I invite everyone has the possibility to reunite and forget the past to go to build the province and unite.'

He stressed the importance of 'Activating reconciliation between everyone without exception and go to rebuild Iraq, especially Anbar that is the security gate of several States', pointing out that the 'organization Daash ideology has not adopted any point, whether internal or external, and it will be eliminated.'

Karbouli confirmed that the 'sons of the popular fighters from the crowd and people of other provinces and the sons of the tribes and the Iraqi army are determined to defeat the Daash and finally expelled from Iraq and the end of the day will be announced Anbar military operations and edit operations center of the province.'
--------- Related Item  The World Bank will lend Iraq $ 350 million for the reconstruction of areas affected by terrorism.

BAGHDAD / Sky Press announced the reconstruction of areas affected by terrorism fund, Wednesday, that the World Bank loan amounting to $ 350 million will be launched during the month. Said Fund Chairman Abdul Basit Turki on the sidelines of a meeting with the Middle East, the World Bank director Fred Hajj the building fund

Article Ends

Till next time…. Auf Wiedersehen!

Peace and Luv To Ya All, 
Mnt Goat