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 Follow The Number of Notes

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Waco Kid
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PostSubject: Follow The Number of Notes   Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:22 pm

The ONLY indicator as to when the Dinar will begin to grow in value is when the number of notes in circulation reaches a workable number.  They have been steadily reducing the number and it may be getting close.  Anyone thinking there will be a instant reval to $3 is just not using their brain.

It ain't rocket science, it's simple math.
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wlfpac_5
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PostSubject: Re: Follow The Number of Notes   Sun Mar 02, 2014 1:44 pm

Good Point Waco Kid.  what are your thoughts on the Iraqi's selling their dollars and repurchasing dinar? On my simple/novice analysis -and if i read the articles correct - the Iraqi's have repurchased around 20 Trillion Dinars since Mid September 2013 - what are they doing with all those Dinars?
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PostSubject: Re: Follow The Number of Notes   Sun Mar 02, 2014 1:55 pm

Ahhh, very good thought processes !

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PostSubject: Re: Follow The Number of Notes   Sun Mar 02, 2014 6:52 pm

 

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Waco Kid
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PostSubject: Re: Follow The Number of Notes   Mon Mar 03, 2014 1:14 am

Wlfpac_5, I think they are simply taking them out of circulation.  From what I can tell it is down to roughly 4 billion.  The currency we hold is valuable to Iraq and they eventually want it back.

The CBI is in complete control of the process.  Not the US, nor Maliki, China, Russia the IMF or anyone else.  Yes, the US has pumped billions of dollars into Iraq, but maintaining stability in that part of the world is expensive.

The CBI has kept the value of the dinar artificially low using the dollar to rebuild their infrastructure.  After all, oil is traded in greenbacks  Once the country gets back close to a normal way of life with goods & services provided on a day to day basis and the economy beginning to stand on its own two feet is when the CBI will pull the trigger.  They have always maintained the goal is to first get to $1 and then allow the value to rise to $3.  
I don't listen to guru's, but to people who have been following this for 12-15 years and have a keen understanding of it.  They insist the CBI plan has always been to issue a new currency and allow it to co-mingle with the current one for 2-3 years.  They say this has to take place before it can revalue.  My understanding is it isn't likely to come out at $1, but more like .25.  At .25 a 25K bill would be worth $6250.  Not the instant millionaires like the guru's would have you to believe (unless you own 4 million), but still a heck of a return on your investment.

During the 2-3 year mixing period the value will rise to the $1 target.  Once all the old bills are out of circulation the value will begin moving towards the ultimate goal of $3.

This is all why I think the note count is the best indicator to follow.  I have no idea what magic number they are looking for, but pulling all those bills out of circulation is, imo, a very good sign we are headed in the right direction.  It could be weeks, months or years away, but personally I think it is reasonably close.  Until then all we can do is continue living life and wait.

This is my story and I'm sticking to it!
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PostSubject: Re: Follow The Number of Notes   Tue Mar 04, 2014 12:26 pm

There's no evidence that the number of notes in circulation is being reduced.  If you go to the CBIs website they say the exact opposite.

Currency outside banks of 35.2 trillion in Jan 2014.  It was 30.8 trillion a year ago, and 28.0 trillion the year before that.
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PostSubject: Re: Follow The Number of Notes   Tue Mar 04, 2014 12:30 pm

@wlfpac_5 wrote:
Good Point Waco Kid.  what are your thoughts on the Iraqi's selling their dollars and repurchasing dinar? On my simple/novice analysis -and if i read the articles correct - the Iraqi's have repurchased around 20 Trillion Dinars since Mid September 2013 - what are they doing with all those Dinars?

GOI takes in USD from oil sales, GOI exchanges USD for dinar with the CBI because GOI isn't going to pay people in a foreign currency.  GOI pays a contract (or a salary, or whatever) in dinar.  Person who received the dinar would rather have USD, goes to bank and exchanges USD for dinar.  Bank would rather have USD than dinar, so goes to currency auctions and buys USD with dinar.

Dinar is now back in the hands of the CBI, and the cycle repeats itself with the GOI again exchanging USD for dinar, putting the dinar right back into circulation.

There is zero evidence that dinar are being removed from circulation.  If you believe the CBIs auction statistics I don't see how you can not believe their numbers that state the amount of dinar in circulation is increasing year after year.
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PostSubject: Re: Follow The Number of Notes   Tue Mar 04, 2014 7:02 pm

FS4Enthusiast, you maybe correct, I thought I read they were selling dollars and buying dinars and I don't understand the process of why. 


I brought back a few hundred dollars worth in 2010 hoping it would appreciate (seeing the progress in security between my first deployment and my second).  I just got interested in the dinar recently - as i check the rate once in a blue moon and saw all this commotion 


You paint a disappointing picture ----you gots to give me some hope for a return! sorry 
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PostSubject: Re: Follow The Number of Notes   Tue Mar 04, 2014 7:11 pm

@wlfpac_5 wrote:
saw all this commotion

That is a delightful way to put it ! And I sure hope this commotion bring this all to an end.  I am ready to be done.
@FS4Enthusiast wrote:
There is zero evidence that dinar are being removed from circulation. If you believe the CBIs auction statistics I don't see how you can not believe their numbers that state the amount of dinar in circulation is increasing year after year.



Huh, now isn't that a good question?

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PostSubject: Re: Follow The Number of Notes   Wed Mar 05, 2014 2:33 pm

@wlfpac_5 wrote:
FS4Enthusiast, you maybe correct, I thought I read they were selling dollars and buying dinars and I don't understand the process of why. 



Because people and businesses want them (dollars).  For two reasons, importing goods and services from outside Iraq, and because people don't trust the dinar to hold its value.

If the CBI stated the rate was 1166 but then refused to actually exchange dinar for dollars at 1166, would the rate really be 1166?  No!  The dinar is only worth what you can purchase with it, or what you can exchange it at with another currency.  So they exchange dinar for dollars at the official rate (minus a small fee). 

But not every schmuck off the street can walk into the CBI and get 1166 to 1.  This is why the "market rate" is less than the official rate, usually between 1225 and 1275 to 1, though I've seen it as bad as 1330 to 1.

So, I would be asking myself a couple question:
1. If the dinar is going to RV, why do Iraqis prefer the USD to the dinar?
2. If the dinar is going to RV, why is the dinar's street rate even less than the official rate?

Seems to me there's a couple possibilities:
1. Iraqis are really really stupid and understand what's going on in Iraq less than American currency speculators and the gurus that are constantly pumping them full of lies.
2. The RV is a fairy tale.
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