Shabibi Talks About RV

by Bcolorad Fri Jan 20, 2012 9:09 pm

April 2011

About 8:20 he starts to say it'll take a lot of propaganda

by Toby1 Fri Jan 20, 2012 9:23 pm

Many thanks for this video Bcolorad. Thanks for pointing out the word "propoganda" He switched the word to advertising, education so fast, i would have missed that word.

by CaptnJerry Fri Jan 20, 2012 9:32 pm

Bcolorad wrote:April 2011

About 8:20 he starts to say it'll take a lot of propaganda

Thanks Bcolorad

by HoneyBadger Fri Jan 20, 2012 9:34 pm

Don't read something into this which is not there. One of the definitions of propaganda is "information put out by a government to promote a policy, idea, or cause" and it's a term commonly used in Europe in its positive definition. He wasn’t implying “smoke screens and false rumors”, he was stating that the people needed to be made fully aware of the CBI plan and how it would affect them in their daily lives.

by CaptnJerry Fri Jan 20, 2012 9:38 pm

HoneyBadger wrote:Don't read something into this which is not there. One of the definitions of propaganda is "information put out by a government to promote a policy, idea, or cause" and it's a term commonly used in Europe in its positive definition. He wasn’t implying “smoke screens and false rumors”, he was stating that the people needed to be made fully aware of the CBI plan and how it would affect them in their daily lives.

Exactly... IMHO

CJ

by Bcolorad Fri Jan 20, 2012 10:14 pm

HoneyBadger wrote:Don't read something into this which is not there. One of the definitions of propaganda is "information put out by a government to promote a policy, idea, or cause" and it's a term commonly used in Europe in its positive definition. He wasn’t implying “smoke screens and false rumors”, he was stating that the people needed to be made fully aware of the CBI plan and how it would affect them in their daily lives.

That makes sense.

I like how he makes a joke in the beginning about not being able to tell the man about the RV

by **Kevind53** Fri Jan 20, 2012 11:18 pm

Al;so keep in mind, English is not his first language. He may have been searching for the right word, and so the use of the word propaganda would be meaningless. Just a thought, he is clearly working quite hard to find the right words in English.

by HoneyBadger Fri Jan 20, 2012 11:24 pm

It should be mandatory on this forum that anybody who does not understand a LOP must listen to this tape.

by landcareunlimited Fri Jan 20, 2012 11:53 pm

I had a very serious concern about a redenomination of the Dinar prior to listening to Dr. Shabbibi's speech in this video, but I have to tell you that if you listen to the ENTIRE video you should come away very reassured of an RV. The person asking Dr. Shabbibi about a REDENOMINATION used that term specifically, and Shabbibi seemed to discount the term and at no time acknowledged that this was the CBI's plan. In fact, he stated something very interesting...he stated that economic forces and the CBI (prior to his tenure) had ADDED the zeros to the EXCHANGE rate...not to the actual currency. He said this was a gradual process over time as a result of economic instability and insecurity. He stated that now their economy is improving and they have a definite PLAN to remove the zeros. Again, the three zeros he referred to being ADDED over time was to the exchange rate...NOT the currency. The denominations we hold are post-liberation 2003 series and have not changed since they first issued. They did not have lower post-Saddam denominations then migrated to the larger denominations. He was referring to the exchange rate. This is the first time that I feel assured we are talking about a REVALUATION or REINSTATEMENT. I know this may be old news for some of you, but it really just clicked for me because Saleh's terminology scared the heck out of me. I would ask you to listen the the recording in its entirety and post feedback. Greenlight and CaptnJerry, I would love to hear your pragmatic and objective viewpoints.

Thanks in advance,

Tim

by HoneyBadger Sat Jan 21, 2012 1:44 am

by HoneyBadger Sat Jan 21, 2012 1:44 am

landcareunlimited wrote:I had a very serious concern about a redenomination of the Dinar prior to listening to Dr. Shabbibi's speech in this video, but I have to tell you that if you listen to the ENTIRE video you should come away very reassured of an RV. The person asking Dr. Shabbibi about a REDENOMINATION used that term specifically, and Shabbibi seemed to discount the term and at no time acknowledged that this was the CBI's plan. In fact, he stated something very interesting...he stated that economic forces and the CBI (prior to his tenure) had ADDED the zeros to the EXCHANGE rate...not to the actual currency. He said this was a gradual process over time as a result of economic instability and insecurity. He stated that now their economy is improving and they have a definite PLAN to remove the zeros. Again, the three zeros he referred to being ADDED over time was to the exchange rate...NOT the currency. The denominations we hold are post-liberation 2003 series and have not changed since they first issued. They did not have lower post-Saddam denominations then migrated to the larger denominations. He was referring to the exchange rate. This is the first time that I feel assured we are talking about a REVALUATION or REINSTATEMENT. I know this may be old news for some of you, but it really just clicked for me because Saleh's terminology scared the heck out of me. I would ask you to listen the the recording in its entirety and post feedback. Greenlight and CaptnJerry, I would love to hear your pragmatic and objective viewpoints.

Thanks in advance,

Tim

I’m sorry but that is not what he said. He did not say that they added it to the exchange rate. He said they added to the currency. Listen from 6:30 to 7:45 and he says that 3 zeros were added to the denomination because of factors like inflation and unstable macro economics. “The only way to combat all of these things at the time was to increase the denomination and put the 3 zeros”

He then says that now that they have low inflation and stable macro economics they can address removing the 3 zeros from the denomination.

“I think to bring back the Iraqi Dinar to where the 3 zeros are removed will be done hand in hand with monitoring the exchange rate. “ AT 8:02 he says “we are studying, not studying that but we (CBI) have decided actually, but when to implement that the removal of the 3 zeros.” He is speaking specifically of the denomination not the exchange rate.

He does speak of evaluation the exchange rate at the beginning of the lecture but he is specifically referring to the 3 zeros on the denomination and the exchange rate as separate economic entities

by CaptnJerry Sat Jan 21, 2012 7:57 am

HoneyBadger wrote:I’m sorry but that is not what he said. He did not say that they added it to the exchange rate. He said they added to the currency. Listen from 6:30 to 7:45 and he says that 3 zeros were added to the denomination because of factors like inflation and unstable macro economics. “The only way to combat all of these things at the time was to increase the denomination and put the 3 zeros”

He then says that now that they have low inflation and stable macro economics they can address removing the 3 zeros from the denomination.

“I think to bring back the Iraqi Dinar to where the 3 zeros are removed will be done hand in hand with monitoring the exchange rate. “ AT 8:02 he says “we are studying, not studying that but we (CBI) have decided actually, but when to implement that the removal of the 3 zeros.” He is speaking specifically of the denomination not the exchange rate.

He does speak of evaluation the exchange rate at the beginning of the lecture but he is specifically referring to the 3 zeros on the denomination and the exchange rate as separate economic entities

Thanks HoneyBadger, there isn't anything I could add...

CJ

by bobd Sat Jan 21, 2012 9:11 am

THANKS FOR THE VIDEO

by landcareunlimited Sat Jan 21, 2012 9:51 am

Perhaps I connected dots that were not there, but explain to me how they could "add zeros to the denomination" when no new bills have been introduced since the 2003 series were initially circulated. If you have not "added zeros" to the actual bills, you must have added them to the exchange rate, hence my statement.

The video posted is only a portion of the speech. I would encourage you to listen to all four sections of the speech on YouTube for additional Revaluation discussion and greater context for this specific discussion.

by CaptnJerry Sat Jan 21, 2012 10:14 am

The 000's were added to the current dinar, the dinar that replaced the lower denomination Saddam dinars...

CJ

by Katieperryfan Sat Jan 21, 2012 11:45 am

Full Length Video of Shabibi's Speech at the US Chamber of
Commerce in Washington D.C. on April 19th, 2011. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jy0T9HVYFA

There
are four videos, google: “Shabibi youtube”

Here
is transcript I had transcribed:

Q: Tom Licenry, Arlington Virginia, With respect
to the ongoing need for stability in Iraq, and its exchange rate, would it not
follow that there is a direct need for a potential revaluation of the currency
to induce both domestic and foreign investment in Iraq and with regard to that
how far do you believe that we are from
a potential revaluation of the currency.

SHABIBI: Well thank you very much for this question…

And
ah…ahhhhh well even if I know this, I
cannot tell you…(Laughs)

I
think the questions is all, you cannot have an economy saying without…it
depends. So the question here is
actually a re-evaluation will ah, which is really going to depend on, on, on to
what extent we are going to continue ahhhhhh let us say… controlling inflation…as you know I don’t know if you go to the
Central Bank law you’ll see on the website you will see the first objective is
maintaining the priceability …so there
is a little bit of inflation in Iraq, it is a now, use to be 2% or 3% , but now
is about 5% but we are watching that very carefully…ahhhhh…if this inflation continues we’ll have to revisit..more revisit,
more then revisit I cannot say …we’re
going to revisit the question of exchange rate…because ahhhhh revaluation I
mean depends on inflation. Of course, I
mean, you know ahhhh the other factors
that determine the movement in currency are allot, I mean, sometimes I would
look at trade on exports and imports and all of your obligations then the
balance of payments and all these things.
Definitely, no doubt you look at those.
But those are problems relating with a, more with the, with the
development part of the economy, the question of maintaining a price stability
is really something you see the inflation and all these things cause nobody else in the economy is
concerned with inflation. The
government when its put its budget ahhhh I mean, the government is spender and the Central Bank is saver….so they,
its not very important for them to mention or to concentrate on inflation so
actually…the question here that we are
going to track and follow the development of inflation FIRST and of course other factors that I mentioned SECOND and
then we will determine our exchange rate movement..

Q: Thank you governor, this may be the same
question, I am Bob Kelly…. I’ve heard a report in just the last couple of days
that Iraq is about to cut three zeros off of the currency, that they call that
redenomination, that may be the same questions that you just received but I
wondered if you had any information about that…

SHABIBI: Well I mean, I don’t know whether it’s the
same question, I think this cutting of
the three zeros is ahhhh is ahhhhhh it
has of course ah shouldn’t be exaggerated..actually the problem. I mean the
question is just redenomination and ah, people of course, you see a lot of
people that ahhhh writing a lot of articles in the newspapers I mean, criticizing
the Central Bank that is going to, the, the value of the Iraqi dinar is going
to depreciate…or something…. all kind of talk, I mean this is a question just
actually to facilitate payment and to facilitate actually ease of counting and
all these things and of course I mean when you see now a lot of figures, I mean you see trillions or huge figures you
see if you want to be precise you put about 12 figures or for 15 figures on all
these things between them, digits or something, so I think we have a plan on
that, and you remember why there was no actually a government decree, to have
to add these zeros, they happened actually because of the course of
development of the economy at the beginning of the 80’s, I mean just inflation was very high, inflation was rampant, and
therefore I mean small small notes and these things were actually, started not
to be used and these things so governments started to add the three zeros and
these things at the time and of course ahhh conditions are different now, inflation is
under control, exchange rate is managed
by the Central Bank, all these things when you had actually the zeros you
could not manage not of course because of the fault of the Government or the
Central Bank, which I think there was, but I think the question is that because
there were a lot of exogenous factors, I am not saying that we are champions
now, there were actually a lot of external factors which affected actually the
behavior of all economic stake holders, and therefore actually a lot of people
didn’t know actually what to do, and they have started to add 3 zeros, and all these things, so now actually situation is completely different from that time, you
had a high inflation, you have now the low inflation, you have actually something which is a stable
macroeconomic situation I mean at the time actually the situation was not
stable….so ahhhh the only way to combat all of these things at the time is to
increase the denomination and put three zeros.
I think, I think to bring back the Iraqi dinar where actually three zeros
are removed, and of course you will have to this will have gone hand in hand
with monitoring of the exchange rate and all these things and and and you’ll
see, and I think now, it is probably, I
mean we are, we are, studying that,, not studying, we have a decided actually
on that , but when to implement that,
the removal of this three zeros is very soon, but of course this requires
not only the Central Bank activity, this requires, because I mean, something you
have to make a lot of propaganda, a lot of advertisement campaign and all these
things and you have of course to go probably some a campaign to educate a lot of people all these things so I think I
think it needs a lot of help from the government from many people from the government
especially from the security forces and we fully hope the security forces
become less busy with the violence issue so they can devote time for us.

GOD BLESS

KatyPerryFan

by Katieperryfan Sat Jan 21, 2012 11:56 am

MY ANALYSIS:

Shabibi works for the CBI, and the mission is as follows:

The primary objectives of the Central Bank of
Iraq (CBI) is to ensure domestic price stability and foster a stable
competitive market based financial system. The CBI shall also promote
sustainable growth, employment and prosperity in Iraq. The functions of the CBI
in addition to achieving its primary objectives are:

Implement the monetary policy
and the exchange rate policy of Iraq.
Hold gold and manage the
state reserves of gold.
Issue and manage the Iraqi
currency.
Establish, oversee, promote a
sound and efficient payment system.
Issue licenses or permits in
addition to regulating and supervising the banking sector as specified by
the Banking Law.
Carry out any ancillary tasks
or transactions within the framework of Iraqi law.

Essentially, the CBI (owned by the elite, the ROTHSCHILDS)
is like our Federal Reserve. They
control the money. Remember, a FOI
request found that the FED had printed another 30 Trillion dollars or so for
itself (the elite). So ultimately, the
CBI looks out for the CBI. The difference here is Shabibi. He is proud Iraqi, with strong family roots
in Iraq history and nationalism. So he
wants to use the power of the CBI to make Iraq a strong nation again.

From listening to his speech of April, he makes it clear
that the three zeros will be removed, and very soon. It was not a GOI edict that made it happen,
it was that inflation went high and there was no CBI controlling the value of
the DINAR; in other words, the market
caused the currency to drop in value.

Shabibi is a bright economist and he is using all of his
wits to maintain the program rate of 1170 Dinar to US $1. He believes he is controlling inflation at
the time of his speech (defined as the rise in the general level of
prices of goods and services in an economy over a
period of time). Why control
inflation? Well obviously, it means
money buys less; but inflation also discourages investment and savings, and high
inflation may lead less buying and more hoarding, out of concern that prices
will continue to increase in the future.
Therefore, inflation does not make Iraq a strong country, and investment
in the country is vital to making Iraq the greatest country in the ME. Iraq wants to be more than just an oil
exporter (was founder of OPEC!). Services,
infrastructure, agriculture, etc. And
why not, it is rich in all natural resources and has a storied history.

His latest ploy of pulling in trillions of -000 Dinar and is
definitely being done to keep the program rate of 1170 and decrease
inflation; but it also is a huge
preparation for the redenomination.
Prior to Sadaam, there was approximately a 15 billion dinar float. I’ve hear it was upwards of 30 trillion, and
he has pulled it down to about 7 to 10 trillion now. But he has stated he wants it at 15 billion
again, so that points to an RV/RI. The
big factor though that is clever is that he is flooding the market with US
dollars. In other words, he is buying
-000 Dinar at the low rate (spends a billion US to bring in a 1.1 trillion
Dinar) and allowing Iraqis to continue to use US dollars. But if the Dinar is to be the strongest
currency in the ME, it has to be tradeable and especially in country. So this points to an RV/RI soon, as Shabibi
puts the finishing touches on lowering the float under the auspices of
controlling inflation.

What are the ramifications of redenominating and revaluing
at say 1 Dinar to $1 US for the CBI? For
Shabibi, there are absolutely no downsides.
They are not part of the GOI, and they’re job is to maintain control of
the currency and promote a strong economy.
Since Iraq is so mineral, oil and gas rich, and pre-Sadaam the dinar was
at $3.22 US, an RI is a no brainer. The
CBI would be well within its duties to do it now. What I believe Shabibi fears, however, is
that Iraqis could all become too rich and not work in their country; so he is making sure he pulls in as many -000
notes in country as possible. Apparently
the unemployment is over 30%, and the average wage for those who do work is
about $2,500 USD per year, or about $3 million dinar a year. There is no
saving, as the price of housing is anywhere from $200 USD to $600 USD a
month. So when it RI/RVs, there will not
be a lot of rich Iraqi’s (people with Dinar saved). If it goes 1 Dinar to $1 USD, the salaries will not increase by 1,170
percent. Instead, they will receive 3,000
dinar instead of 3 million, mostly electronically, meaning $9,000 USD a year. People
will be paid more, but since most (over 90%) of the jobs now are oil related
and oil profits are based on the USD the salaries will not go up much.

IMHO

GOD BLESS

KatyPerryFan

by **Kevind53** Sat Jan 21, 2012 12:07 pm

Pretty good analysis, I don't buy into the Rothchild/elite theory, and quite frankly I think the whole theory borders on blatant antisemitism, but that is not a topic for discussion on this side. Otherwise, a well thought out analysis. I agree, based on the underlying economics and resources in Iraq, we SHOULD see a $3.00+ value on the Dinar. The million dollar question is when.

I disagree that salaries will not go up. I think they will, their per capita income and hence their standard of living is not in line with what it should be. Even Jordan is half again higher, Iran over 2 1/2 times higher, and Kuwait over 10X higher. I would expect their per capita income to at least double over the next few years.

Of course you also have a lot of internal issues, that need to be addressed, and some external ones as well, such as the almost 100% certainty that Iran is meddling in those internal issues and stirring up trouble.

by Bcolorad Sat Jan 21, 2012 12:18 pm

by DevaronDLH Sat Jan 21, 2012 12:35 pm

The issue of LOP has been passed around so many times it is like a paper with ragged edges.
The Dinar will lose 3 zero's in Iraq... this do not pertain to the rest of the world... when you turn in your Dinar they will NOT be giving you change!
If you are living in Iraq that is one story and the LOP will apply to you... other then that it does not concern you and will not be effecting your end of the Dinar.

by CaptnJerry Sat Jan 21, 2012 12:50 pm

DevaronDLH wrote:The issue of LOP has been passed around so many times it is like a paper with ragged edges.
The Dinar will lose 3 zero's in Iraq... this do not pertain to the rest of the world... when you turn in your Dinar they will NOT be giving you change!
If you are living in Iraq that is one story and the LOP will apply to you... other then that it does not concern you and will not be effecting your end of the Dinar.

Let me see if I understand what you are saying... If I was in Iraq my 25K dinar note is/will be worth 25 dinar or roughly $25USD according to the articles and yourself, but here in the USA and everywhere else in the world (other than Iraq) my 25K note will be worth $25K USD? Is this what your saying?

CJ

by landcareunlimited Sat Jan 21, 2012 1:38 pm

DevaronDLH,

You do realize it is 2012, right? All of the articles regarding connecting Iraq's banking system to the rest of the world making WORLDWIDE electronic banking possible and you honestly expect your statement to make sense?

Look, after watching all four videos intently I still reach a different conclusion that CaptnJerry, but his redenomination scenarion certainly makes sense and is a definite (unfortunate) possibility based on a plausible interpretation of the articles. What CANNOT happen is two different exchange rates...an in-country and out-of-country exchange rate. That scenarion makes no sense and I ask you to provide a single example of it anywhere in the world.

by HoneyBadger Sat Jan 21, 2012 1:52 pm

CaptnJerry wrote:
DevaronDLH wrote:The issue of LOP has been passed around so many times it is like a paper with ragged edges.
The Dinar will lose 3 zero's in Iraq... this do not pertain to the rest of the world... when you turn in your Dinar they will NOT be giving you change!
If you are living in Iraq that is one story and the LOP will apply to you... other then that it does not concern you and will not be effecting your end of the Dinar.

Let me see if I understand what you are saying... If I was in Iraq my 25K dinar note is/will be worth 25 dinar or roughly $25USD according to the articles and yourself, but here in the USA and everywhere else in the world (other than Iraq) my 25K note will be worth $25K USD? Is this what your saying?

CJ

Thank you CJ and you hit the point exactly why people keep confusing themselves on a relatively simple point. So to put it into SIMPLE TO UNDERSAND terms: if there is a LOP before there is a shift in the exchange rate then the best we can hope for is a 3-1 return. If the CBI adjusts the exchange rate before a LOP, then that is when we will see a significant return on our investment – regardless if you are in Iraq or Outer Mongolia. Shabibi was very clear that the CBI has already made up its mind that there will be a LOP, just when is the question.

by CaptnJerry Sat Jan 21, 2012 1:58 pm

Landcare, I honestly hope and pray that I'm wrong, but I just don't see it happening any differently...

CJ

by supergirl Sat Jan 21, 2012 2:05 pm

@DevaronDLH
agreed!

by CaptnJerry Sat Jan 21, 2012 2:09 pm

supergirl wrote:@DevaronDLH
agreed!

Let me see if I understand what you are saying... If I was in Iraq my 25K dinar note is/will be worth 25 dinar or roughly $25USD according to the articles and yourself, but here in the USA and everywhere else in the world (other than Iraq) my 25K note will be worth $25K USD? Is this what your saying?

Is this what your in agreeing to?

CJ

by DevaronDLH Sat Jan 21, 2012 2:19 pm

I don't understand why this simple thing is being confused... IF you own dinar, and it RV's, take it to the bank and if the rate is 3.50 (example) that is what you will receive PER DINAR. The LOP applies to Iraq. The nations and people around the world holding Dinar as reserve currency or as an investment all believe the Dinar will Revalue... and when it does it will be at what ever Dr. Shabibi says it is... PER DINAR.
Once the RV happens the Iraqi people will need lower donominations... The banks and the government does not expect the preople to be carrying around 25K notes in their pockets... Would YOU carry around 25,000 in your pocket all day?
People here seem to think the LOP means their dinars are not worth as much as they think... this is not the case. Your Dinars are worth what ever the Dinar is worth when it RV's.

by SEBtopdog Sat Jan 21, 2012 2:24 pm

DevaronDLH wrote:I don't understand why this simple thing is being confused... IF you won dinar, and it RV's, take it to the bank and if the rate is 3.50 (example) that is what you will receive per dinar... The LOP applies to Iraq. The nations and people around the world holding Dinar as reserve currency or as an investment all believe the Dinar will Revalue... and when it does it will be at what ever Dr. Shabibi says it is... PER DINAR.

Here, here, DevaronDLH!! This has been my understanding, too, but I'm not as eloquent as you in making the argument. We won't know till we know, but I'm praying with every fiber of my being that this is so. :cheers:

by **greenlight** Sat Jan 21, 2012 2:25 pm

CaptnJerry wrote:
DevaronDLH wrote:The issue of LOP has been passed around so many times it is like a paper with ragged edges.
The Dinar will lose 3 zero's in Iraq... this do not pertain to the rest of the world... when you turn in your Dinar they will NOT be giving you change!
If you are living in Iraq that is one story and the LOP will apply to you... other then that it does not concern you and will not be effecting your end of the Dinar.

Let me see if I understand what you are saying... If I was in Iraq my 25K dinar note is/will be worth 25 dinar or roughly $25USD according to the articles and yourself, but here in the USA and everywhere else in the world (other than Iraq) my 25K note will be worth $25K USD? Is this what your saying?

CJ

Every Iraqi citizen would cross the nearest border to cas in.. There would not be a single dinar left in Iraq.
lol!

:king:

by CaptnJerry Sat Jan 21, 2012 2:34 pm

That would be like taking 100 dinar holders, puting them in a line and telling every 3rd one, your dinar are worth $1.00 USD each, but the all the rest of you, yours are only worth $.005 USD each! That makes no sense what so ever...

Common sense people... or maybe I should say Uncommon sense people, cause it sure doesn't seem to be common any more!!!

CJ

by CaptnJerry Sat Jan 21, 2012 2:55 pm

DevaronDLH wrote:I don't understand why this simple thing is being confused I don't either!!!... IF you own dinar, and it RV's, take it to the bank and if the rate is 3.50 (example) that is what you will receive PER DINAR. The LOP applies ~~to Iraq~~ to all Iraqi dinar . The nations and people around the world holding Dinar as reserve currency or as an investment all believe the Dinar will Revalue...I believe it will also and when it does it will be at what ever Dr. Shabibi says it is... PER DINAR. As it has been explained to us the New Dinar exchange rate 000's will be razed... 1000 Old Dinar to $1USD or .001... or 1 New Dinar to $1USD or 1.00
Once the RV happens the Iraqi people will need lower donominations... The banks and the government does not expect the preople to be carrying around 25K notes in their pockets... Would YOU carry around 25,000 in your pocket all day? Yes, cause Iraq has stated that 25K old dinar will be/is equal to 25 new dinar (or about $25 USD
People here seem to think the LOP means their dinars are not worth as much as they think... this is not the case. Exactly!!! Your Dinars are worth what ever the Dinar is worth when it RV's.

CJ

by **RamblerNash** Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:46 pm

Katieperryfan wrote:Full Length Video of Shabibi's Speech at the US Chamber of
Commerce in Washington D.C. on April 19th, 2011. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jy0T9HVYFA

There
are four videos, google: “Shabibi youtube”

Here
is transcript I had transcribed:

Q: Tom Licenry, Arlington Virginia, With respect
to the ongoing need for stability in Iraq, and its exchange rate, would it not
follow that there is a direct need for a potential revaluation of the currency
to induce both domestic and foreign investment in Iraq and with regard to that
how far do you believe that we are from
a potential revaluation of the currency.

SHABIBI: Well thank you very much for this question…

And
ah…ahhhhh well even if I know this, I
cannot tell you…(Laughs)

I
think the questions is all, you cannot have an economy saying without…it
depends. So the question here is
actually a re-evaluation will ah, which is really going to depend on, on, on to
what extent we are going to continue ahhhhhh let us say… controlling inflation…as you know I don’t know if you go to the
Central Bank law you’ll see on the website you will see the first objective is
maintaining the priceability …so there
is a little bit of inflation in Iraq, it is a now, use to be 2% or 3% , but now
is about 5% but we are watching that very carefully…ahhhhh…if this inflation continues we’ll have to revisit..more revisit,
more then revisit I cannot say …we’re
going to revisit the question of exchange rate…because ahhhhh revaluation I
mean depends on inflation. Of course, I
mean, you know ahhhh the other factors
that determine the movement in currency are allot, I mean, sometimes I would
look at trade on exports and imports and all of your obligations then the
balance of payments and all these things.
Definitely, no doubt you look at those.
But those are problems relating with a, more with the, with the
development part of the economy, the question of maintaining a price stability
is really something you see the inflation and all these things cause nobody else in the economy is
concerned with inflation. The
government when its put its budget ahhhh I mean, the government is spender and the Central Bank is saver….so they,
its not very important for them to mention or to concentrate on inflation so
actually…the question here that we are
going to track and follow the development of inflation FIRST and of course other factors that I mentioned SECOND and
then we will determine our exchange rate movement..

Q: Thank you governor, this may be the same
question, I am Bob Kelly…. I’ve heard a report in just the last couple of days
that Iraq is about to cut three zeros off of the currency, that they call that
redenomination, that may be the same questions that you just received but I
wondered if you had any information about that…

SHABIBI: Well I mean, I don’t know whether it’s the
same question, I think this cutting of
the three zeros is ahhhh is ahhhhhh it
has of course ah shouldn’t be exaggerated..actually the problem. I mean the
question is just redenomination and ah, people of course, you see a lot of
people that ahhhh writing a lot of articles in the newspapers I mean, criticizing
the Central Bank that is going to, the, the value of the Iraqi dinar is going
to depreciate…or something…. all kind of talk, I mean this is a question just
actually to facilitate payment and to facilitate actually ease of counting and
all these things and of course I mean when you see now a lot of figures, I mean you see trillions or huge figures you
see if you want to be precise you put about 12 figures or for 15 figures on all
these things between them, digits or something, so I think we have a plan on
that, and you remember why there was no actually a government decree, to have
to add these zeros, they happened actually because of the course of
development of the economy at the beginning of the 80’s, I mean just inflation was very high, inflation was rampant, and
therefore I mean small small notes and these things were actually, started not
to be used and these things so governments started to add the three zeros and
these things at the time and of course ahhh conditions are different now, inflation is
under control, exchange rate is managed
by the Central Bank, all these things when you had actually the zeros you
could not manage not of course because of the fault of the Government or the
Central Bank, which I think there was, but I think the question is that because
there were a lot of exogenous factors, I am not saying that we are champions
now, there were actually a lot of external factors which affected actually the
behavior of all economic stake holders, and therefore actually a lot of people
didn’t know actually what to do, and they have started to add 3 zeros, and all these things, so now actually situation is completely different from that time, you
had a high inflation, you have now the low inflation, you have actually something which is a stable
macroeconomic situation I mean at the time actually the situation was not
stable….so ahhhh the only way to combat all of these things at the time is to
increase the denomination and put three zeros.
I think, I think to bring back the Iraqi dinar where actually three zeros
are removed, and of course you will have to this will have gone hand in hand
with monitoring of the exchange rate and all these things and and and you’ll
see, and I think now, it is probably, I
mean we are, we are, studying that,, not studying, we have a decided actually
on that , but when to implement that,
the removal of this three zeros is very soon, but of course this requires
not only the Central Bank activity, this requires, because I mean, something you
have to make a lot of propaganda, a lot of advertisement campaign and all these
things and you have of course to go probably some a campaign to educate a lot of people all these things so I think I
think it needs a lot of help from the government from many people from the government
especially from the security forces and we fully hope the security forces
become less busy with the violence issue so they can devote time for us.

GOD BLESS

KatyPerryFan

by **RoyBoy** Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:12 pm

Ok what ever---- I think I'll go make myself another Teq sunrise

by **kenmor** Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:18 pm

2011?

by **Sam I Am** Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:06 pm

(I wrote about Shabibi's speech on my blog four years ago. I hope this article clears things up.)

***********************

From time to time I hear people cite the videos of Shabibi when he was in Washington D.C. in April of 2011 as reasons for believing in the RV. I've watched these videos several times and I have to wonder if these people are watching the same videos, because everything in them tells me that the big RV that the dinar crowd is waiting for just ain't gonna happen.

In the first video (above) Shabibi states that prior to 2003 Iraq had hyperinflation which led to a depreciated currency. They also had sanctions, low oil output, high unemployment, and an underdeveloped infrastructure. So when Saddam was removed and the coalition government and military forces began the transition to a democracy and a free market economy, there was a need for economic stability. Without stability it's hard to define or accomplish your objectives. That stability would be characterized by a stable exchange rate, low inflation, and an orderly payment system. By accomplishing their objectives, the CBI had paved the way for the Iraqi government to rebuild the country by attracting foreign investment.

In the second video he states that Iraq is rich in oil, but not in development, so they need to bring investors into the country to develop it. He then states that the growing foreign currency reserves are being used to provide stability which is good for the government and for investors. Pressure from within Iraq to use the reserves for certain projects and pressure from outside of Iraq (exogenous factors) to devalue their currency have been resisted in order to maintain economic stability. He feels that this stability will continue which will provide the right environment for foreign investment for the foreseeable future. At the end of the video he was asked about a potential revaluation of the dinar.

He answered that question in the third video by saying essentially that they might raise the value if inflation becomes an issue again. Half a year later that happened when coalition forces left Iraq and turned in their dinar for their respective nations' currencies, causing a spike in inflation due to the forces of supply and demand. The CBI's response in January of 2012 was to adjust the exchange rate from 1170:1 to 1166:1, raising the value 1/3 of 1%. Contrary to the mythical RVs of the dinar gurus, this is how revaluations usually work. Shabibi also mentioned that factors like imports/exports and balance of payments could determine the need for revaluation. Apparently they haven't been a problem since he said that.

What many gurus have never told dinar investors is that the value of the dinar increased from Nov. 1, 2006 to Jan. 1, 2009 a total of 20% because of a policy change at the CBI. They went to a crawling peg for 26 months in order to bring the inflation rate down to a tolerable level. That 20% increase had nothing to do with increased oil production, GDP, growing currency reserves, or how popular the dinar was. It was a monetary policy change to bring down inflation and nothing more, and it worked. Once inflation settled below 10% they went to a policy of exchange rate stability which they have been on for nearly five years now.

Two years ago I did a post called Dinar Fact Sheet where I showed a document purportedly from the U.S. Treasury stating: "From 2006 to 2008, the CBI allowed the currency to appreciate by about 20 percent, primarily as a way to combat inflation". This was confirmed in an IMF document I've referenced several times which stated: "The central bank followed a policy of exchange rate stability which has translated in a de facto peg of the exchange rate since early 2004. However, from November 2006 until end 2008, the CBI allowed the exchange rate to gradually appreciate. As a result, the exchange rate arrangement of Iraq was reclassified to the category of crawling peg effective November 1, 2006. Since the start of 2009, the CBI returned to its earlier policy of maintaining a stable dinar."

Shabibi Talks About RV Iraq+inflation+chart

Since the main factor in raising the value 20% during that time was high inflation there's really no reason to conclude that the IQD will increase in value any time soon unless inflation becomes a concern again by climbing back up to 10% or more. Currently inflation in Iraq is quite low as the chart above indicates.

Later in the video Shabibi was asked to comment on the news articles about "cutting the zeros". He referred to it as "redenomination". He responded that there was a lot of criticism of the proposal .... "all kind of talk". He said that some critics of cutting the zeros feel that it will lead to depreciation of the currency. That's odd, huh? Why would critics think that raising the value 100,000% would cause depreciation of the currency? Well the fact is the critics know that the proposal isn't a revaluation but a redenomination as Shabibi clearly stated, and history shows us that sometimes currencies depreciate soon after a redenomination. (The Turkish Lira, for example, depreciated for three years following the 2005 redenomination.) Thus the crtics' concern. He went on to say that it was just being done to "facilitate payment", meaning that it makes cash transactions easier. (The same fact sheet I mentioned above stated that "Under the proposed redenomination, the Iraqi government would issue a new dinar note that will be equivalent to 1000 current dinars. The exchange rate would be 1.17 new dinars to the dollar, equivalent to 1,170 current dinars to the dollar", which would certainly qualify as "facilitated" or "easier" since one dinar would then be able to purchase what 1,000 dinar purchased prior to redenomination.) He also mentioned "ease of counting" but said nothing about an increase in purchasing power being caused by the proposal.

Shabibi then gives us a brief history lesson, saying that the zeros were added because of inflation back in the 80s. That's when the money supply went from billions to trillions in Iraq. He says that conditions are different now and they have decided to go ahead with this plan to "bring back the Iraqi dinar" by removing the three zeros that were added because of past hyperinflation. So according to Shabibi, "bringing back the Iraqi dinar", "cutting the three zeros", and "redenomination" all mean the same thing. He then adds that before that can happen they need to educate the people and they need the violence in the country to subside so that the security forces can assist in the implementation of the redenomination. Some of the gurus have siezed upon the word "propaganda" as if Shabibi inadvertently let it slip that they're trying to hide the fact that they're going to enact the largest revaluation in history. The fact is, the word "propaganda" originally had a neutral connotation. From Wikipedia:

"While the term propaganda has acquired a strongly negative connotation by association with its most manipulative and jingoistic examples (e.g. Nazi propaganda used to justify the Holocaust), propaganda in its original sense was neutral, and could refer to uses that were generally benign or innocuous, such as public health recommendations, signs encouraging citizens to participate in a census or election, or messages encouraging persons to report crimes to law enforcement, among others."

Or an upcoming currency change, perhaps?

So you can see here that Shabibi's use of the word "propaganda" wasn't necessarily indicative of anything covert or sinister. Even if he hadn't changed it to "advertisement" it would have been an appropriate description of the campaign to educate the public about an approaching redenomination. Some people will read RV into anything.

Shabibi then states that a redenomination would require help from security forces. Some have argued against the lop, insisting that there's no reason to delay it year after year if that's what they really intended to do. Well, actually there is. Since the redenomination was announced a couple of years ago violence has increased in Iraq. So have smuggling and money laundering. Those things require the attention of security forces which would be needed during a redenomination. To redenominate while things are so unstable in Iraq would weaken overall security to an intolerable degree. This isn't Sam saying this. It's Shabs. He hopes that "security forces become less busy with the violence issue so they can devote time for us".

In the fourth and final video, Shabibi repeats his concerns about inflation, and price/exchange rate stability. He concludes by answering a question about the "policy rate", which I believe to be essentially the same thing as the prime rate in the US. He says that the CBI is concerned about the banks charging high interest rates, so they have a problem with both the banks and the government.

Everything Shabibi talked about in these videos is contrary to what the gurus have been feeding us. Shabibi said nothing about raising the value 100,000%. He said that revaluation depends on inflation, and the history of the IQD tells us that raising the value to combat inflation only requires small adjustments that will probably not provide any profits for dinar investors. He said that cutting the zeros is a redenomination. He said Iraq needs a stable exchange rate in order to plan, to budget, and to attract investment into the country.

It seems clear to me what Shabibi was saying in these videos, and it also seems clear to me that the only justification for believing in a big RV is if everything Shabibi said here was "smoke". Given the fact that the IQD's value is still below a tenth of a penny two and a half years later I'd say that's not bloody likely.

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2013/10/shabibi-videos.html

Shabibi Talks About RV

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