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 IEA forecasts weaker oil demand due to flagging global growth

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PostSubject: IEA forecasts weaker oil demand due to flagging global growth    Thu Nov 10, 2011 9:29 am

11/10/2011 3:07:00 PM

IEA forecasts weaker oil demand due to flagging global growth

PARIS, Nov 10 (KUNA) - The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Thursday forecast slightly weaker global crude oil demand in 2011 and 2012 because of the ongoing economic woes affecting world growth and the uncertainty caused by the European debt crisis.
In its latest monthly "Oil Market Report," the IEA said that demand for oil this year would only rise by 900,000 barrels per day (b/d), a downward revision of 70,000 b/d from forecasts a month ago. It is the third time in as many months that the IEA has revised projected demand downwards.

Demand in 2011 is now expected to reach 89.2 million b/d, up 1.0 percent from 2010. Projections for demand growth in 2012 have been revised downwards by 20,000 b/d and demand next year should reach 90.5 million b/d, around 1.5 percent higher than in 2011.
Nonetheless, the Paris-based IEA said that there was some uncertainty on the direction of global demand and oil prices due to a variety of risks, including the slower-than-expected growth in the global economy.
The IEA cited the "ever-present threat of a far-reaching financial collapse" due to debt problems in Europe as one of the risk factors present on the oil market.

It said that oil markets were "inextricably linked to the deterioration in the European debt situation" and there was a "heightened risk of global recession" because of the impact on financial markets and a negative effect on oil demand.
However, the Agency noted that some of these risks were offset by demand increases and tighter supply markets as the winter season begins in the Western hemisphere.

While political risks have diminished and increased supply is now flowing from suppliers like Libya, there are still underlying tensions in some producer countries and there are "concerns" about the stand-off over the Iranian nuclear problem.
Additionally, the IEA said that certain production areas like the Gulf of Mexico have been so far spared interruptions because of the traditional hurricane season and this has led to less-tight markets. But, the IEA noted, its member countries have been drawing heavily on inventories of late to top up supply and these will have to be rebuilt coming out of the winter season.


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